AWUS01 KWNH 141348
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-141930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1048
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
947 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Areas affected...Eastern NE...Northeast KS...Northwest
MO...Western IA...Southeast SD

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 141345Z - 141930Z

SUMMARY...The flash flood threat continues today as an MCV
embedded within anomalous moisture aloft is likely to produce
additional thunderstorms. Additional flash flooding is likely late
morning and into early afternoon as storms potentially produce
rainfall rates up to 3"/hr.

DISCUSSION...GOES-19 satellite imagery and Doppler Radar show a
compact MCV over eastern NE making its way northeast towards the
Missouri River. The axis of heaviest rainfall is where the best
850mb WAA ahead of the MCV is intersecting a cooler airmass over
the Upper Mississippi Valley. RAP mesoanalysis shows PWs between
2.0-2.2" throughout much of the region, which is topping the 99th climatological percentile in many cases. The biggest question lies
in the available instability. Plenty of cloud debris from
overnight thunderstorms is helping to limit surface based heating
initially, but little-to-no capping inversion aloft and the
assistance from the MCV to the west will result any increase in
MUCAPE to support additional thunderstorms this morning and into
this afternoon.

The 12Z HRRR shows that as initial thunderstorm activity
diminishes over northern IA this morning, new storms will flare up
on the eastern and northern flanks of the MCV. Farther south,
where SWrly low-level inflow is interacting with the analyzed
surface front in northeast KS and northern MO, storms may
re-develop in an environment that is likely to see MUCAPE rise to

1,000 J/kg. The copious amounts of moisture (some area-averaged

soundings are saturated as high up as 300mb), increase in elevated
instability, and mid-level support from the MCV is likely to spawn
new thunderstorms that contains hourly rainfall rates as high as
3"/hr. 1-hr FFGs are lowest in eastern NE and along I-80 in
western IA where some FFGs are <1.5" in some cases.

Storms pivoting around the northern and eastern flanks of the MCV
could be the most efficient rainfall producers as they have not
only the anomalous moisture aloft, but also >30 kts of sfc-3km
vertical wind shear, which could help sustain new thunderstorm
activity through early afternoon. Additional flash flooding is
likely in the MO River Valley and as far east as central IA today.
Areas with more saturated soils and poor drainage spots are most at-risk.

Mullinax

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...GID...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43249571 43089449 42929372 42389276 41479263
40789309 40529382 40299446 39869520 39679570
39219649 39519725 40259717 40539786 40739823
41209834 41499833 41879813 42549763 43119684

$$
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