AWUS01 KWNH 111303
FFGMPD
PAZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-111900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1007
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
902 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Areas affected...Central IN...Southern OH...Central WV...Northeast KY

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 111301Z - 111900Z

Summary...Multiple thunderstorm complexes are expected to track
southeast from Indiana to West Virginia through the early
afternoon hours. Convective training across portions of this
region could produce additional 2-3 inch rainfall totals with
locally higher amounts, and given highly saturated grounds from
earlier rainfall, instances of flash flooding are likely.

Discussion...Regional Doppler radars, in conjunction with infrared
satellite imagery, indicate three relatively distinct convective
complexes across the outlook area this morning, each of which is
associated with a low-mid level vortmax embedded in enhanced WNW
flow. The strongest complex is currently over east-central Indiana
into western Ohio, and persistent back-building convection has
been ongoing over north-central Indiana for the past couple of
hours given weak Corfidi vectors aligned with the surface-6km
flow. Rainfall rates on the order of 2+ inches per hour have been
noted with the most persistent convection, and regional
observations indicate 2-4 inch rainfall totals since midnight
across portions of southeast Ohio and also west of Fort Wayne, Indiana.

The latest CAM guidance suite continues to struggle with an
accurate depiction of the ongoing convection and its expected
evolution over the next several hours, with the HRRR and RRFS too
light compared to current radar imagery, and also some differences
with latitudinal placement of the complexes. The overall
thermodynamic environment remains favorable for a continuation of
these storms with high rainfall rates. A deep reservoir of
2000-3000 mixed layer CAPE exists just to the south of these
complexes, and strong theta-e advection from the WSW will continue
to fuel the convection, and PWs on the order of 1.75 to 2 inches.
Some instances of flash flooding are likely, especially across
areas that have received excessive rainfall over the past 24 hours.

Hamrick

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IND...IWX...JKL...LMK...LOT...LWX... PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41298682 41218614 41148549 40928404 40838324
40678231 40388133 40038075 39488011 38957983
38387976 37778010 37358093 37388194 37768284
38628431 39308532 39928621 40388676 40718717
41138721

$$
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