Mesoscale Discussion 1893
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0829 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
Areas affected...southeast Pennsylvania...northeast
Maryland...northern Delaware...and southern New Jersey
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 101329Z - 101500Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Damaging wind potential may increase with an ongoing MCS.
Convective trends are being monitored for a possible severe
thunderstorm watch.
DISCUSSION...As of 1325Z, radar imagery showed a small MCS with a
leading bow structure moving through Lebanon and Lancaster Counties
in southeast PA at around 30 kt. The system has a history of
producing wind damage; however, recent radar trends indicate
decreasing echo heights, potentially suggesting a weakening trend.
Visible satellite shows cloud-free skies ahead of the MCS with
temperatures already around 80 degrees observed within the inflow
air mass. Modification of the 12Z PIT sounding for similar
boundary-layer conditions suggests that only minimal convective
inhibition exists for surface-based parcels. As such, it's possible
the MCS could restrengthen within the next hour or so with an
increased potential for damaging winds.