ACUS02 KWNS 310537
SWODY2
SPC AC 310535

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY...MIDDLE TENNESSEE...AND PART OF NORTHERN ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms capable of mainly damaging wind
appear possible across central Kentucky, middle Tennessee, and part
of northern Alabama Saturday afternoon and evening. A broader area
of more isolated damaging wind potential will exist from parts of
the Ohio Valley into portions of Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia.
Isolated severe storms capable of severe wind gusts and hail may
occur over New Mexico into southeast Arizona Saturday afternoon into evening.

...Synopsis...

A short-wave trough over the mid MS Valley Saturday morning will
progress into the lower OH and TN Valleys with a belt of stronger mid/upper-level winds rounding the trough base in those areas. In
the low levels, a surface low will develop from central IL into
northern IN during the day before reaching southeast lower MI late
Saturday night. A 30-35 kt low-level jet (LLJ) will precede the
surface low over the OH and TN Valleys, supporting a corridor of
stronger low-level shear in those areas. Meanwhile, a cold front
will advance through the lower and middle OH Valley, TN Valley, and
much of the lower MS Valley with the western extension of the front
pushing south through central and southwest TX.

...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the central Gulf Coast states...

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at 12Z Saturday
across portions of the OH and TN Valleys into MS and AL within the warm-conveyor air stream preceding the surface low and cold front.
In the wake of the early-day storms, and where stronger heating can
occur, boundary-layer dewpoints in the low to mid 70s will
contribute to an axis of MLCAPE ranging from 500-1500 J/kg north of
the OH River, to as high as 2000-2500 J/kg from middle TN into parts
of MS and AL.

Renewed thunderstorm development is expected by early- to
mid-afternoon along the cold front and within the relatively narrow
instability axis over IN with subsequent southward development
through KY and TN into MS and AL. The strongest deep-layer shear of
30-35 kt is forecast from KY to north of the OH River with vector
orientations largely perpendicular to the front. Vertical shear
decreases with southward extent along the front; however, that may
be offset to some extent by a more favorable thermodynamic environment.

It currently appears that the most favorable overlap of instability
and at least modest vertical shear will reside from central KY into
northern AL Saturday afternoon into evening, where a level 2/Slight
Risk has been delineated. Damaging winds are likely to be the
primary hazard with the most intense storms. Some tornado risk may
develop across portions of KY into IN and OH Saturday afternoon into
evening along the LLJ, where low-level shear is forecast to be
stronger. However, forecast soundings indicate generally poor
low-level lapse rates in areas of strongest shear, which may tend to
limit a more substantial threat. Large hail potential appears
limited due to warm mid-level temperatures and resultant poor lapse rates.

...New Mexico into southeast Arizona...

The 00Z models continue to suggest that a weak mid-level disturbance
will progress south through the central and southern High Plains on
Saturday. The glancing influence of that feature coupled with an
increasing upslope component in the low-level wind field is expected
to support widely scattered thunderstorms by afternoon along the
Raton Mesa, as well as Sangre De Cristo and Sacramento Mountains.
Additional storms may form along the high terrain in the
west-central NM. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the 50s combined with
steep low/mid-level lapse rates will support a moderately unstable
air mass with MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg.

Deep-layer shear is expected to strengthen to 30-40 kt by afternoon,
suggesting the potential for organized storm modes with the initial
hazard being marginally severe hail. Individual storms may tend to
cluster by late afternoon into evening with the 00Z CAMs indicating
an increased potential for severe wind gusts, especially from
south-central NM into southeast AZ.

..Mead.. 07/31/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 020451
SWODY2
SPC AC 020450

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 PM CDT Sat Aug 01 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND A SMALL PART OF NORTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered to scattered severe storms are expected across
eastern North Dakota, northwest Minnesota, and a small part of
northeast South Dakota Monday afternoon into evening. Severe wind
gusts and large hail will be the primary hazards. Isolated damaging
winds are possible from central and eastern South Dakota into
western Nebraska, in portions of the Mid-Atlantic into New England,
and southeast Arizona.

...Synopsis...

A vigorous short-wave trough and attending mid/upper-level jet
streaks initially over the northern Rockies Monday morning will
progress through the northern Plains and the upper MS Valley. At the
surface, an area of low pressure is expected to weaken while
developing from western SD into northwest ON, along a cold front
advancing through the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. The
southern extension of the front will push into the central High
Plains, where it will link with a secondary cyclone over eastern CO.

Elsewhere, an amplified short-wave trough will progress through the
Northeast with a preceding belt of enhanced mid/upper-level winds
overspreading that region. The associated surface low is expected to
track along the St. Lawrence Valley, while a trailing front moves
through the Mid-Atlantic and much of New England.

...Northern and central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley...

Elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing at 12Z Monday from central ND
into the ND-MN Red River Valley, within a zone of warm advection and
moisture transport at the terminus of a low-level jet (LLJ). The LLJ
will persist through the day, aiding in air mass recovery in the
wake of the early-day storms. By afternoon, the combination of
daytime heating, boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s, and steep
lapse rates is expected to yield a moderately unstable, but capped
pre-frontal air mass with MLCAPE up to 1000-2000 J/kg.

Renewed thunderstorm development is anticipated by mid- to late
afternoon along the cold front and any residual outflow boundaries
in eastern ND into northwest MN, where stronger dynamic forcing for
ascent should erode the cap. Vertically veering wind profiles with
40-50+ kt effective bulk shear will contribute to organized storm
modes, including supercells and bowing structures capable of large
hail and damaging winds. The presence of a 30-40 kt LLJ will lead to
sizable, clockwise-curved hodographs with 0-1 km SRH of 200-300
m2/s2 during the evening. However, the overall tornado threat
remains uncertain as forecast soundings indicate continued capping
within the inflow air mass, poor low-level lapse rates, and only a
small amount of 0-3 km CAPE.

Storm development farther south along the front in SD and NE remains
more uncertain due to capping concerns. Should storms develop, the
environment would support the potential for severe wind gusts and
perhaps marginally severe hail.

...New England into the Mid-Atlantic...

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Monday morning
across portions of the Mid-Atlantic into New England. Associated
clouds and precipitation are likely to linger into afternoon,
limiting air mass destabilization in some areas. However, where
stronger heating can occur, the presence of dewpoints in the upper
60s to low 70s will contribute to pockets of moderate instability
with MLCAPE up to 1000-1500 J/kg.

Aided by forcing for ascent attendant to the short-wave trough,
thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity
through the afternoon along and ahead of the front, namely in areas
that experience greater air mass destabilization. Steepening
low-level lapse rates and the presence of 35-45 kt of deep-layer
shear may support embedded bowing segments capable of damaging wind gusts.

...Southeast Arizona...

Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the
afternoon over the Gila Mountains as well as along favored terrain
nearer to the international border. A subsequent merging of the
separate regimes appears possible by late afternoon into evening.
The presence of a deep, well-mixed boundary layer with MLCAPE up to
1000-1500 J/kg suggests the potential for severe wind gusts,
especially if some cold pool organization can occur.

..Mead.. 08/02/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 100600
SWODY2
SPC AC 100559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts will be possible on
Tuesday from parts of the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians
in the afternoon and evening. Isolated severe wind gusts and hail
will also be possible from parts of the central and northern Plains
into the Midwest.

...Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians...
At mid-levels, west-northwesterly flow will remain in place on
Tuesday from the northern Plains to the central Appalachians. At the
surface, a quasi-stationary front is forecast to be located from
northern Illinois east-southeastward into far northern Kentucky. To
the south of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F
will result in moderate to strong instability by midday. Low-level
convergence along the boundary will likely be the focus for
convective initiation during the day. It appears that an intense
line segment could develop and move east-southeastward along and
near the frontal zone from mid afternoon to mid evening. However,
there is some uncertainty concerning where the boundary from morning
convection will be in the afternoon.

Forecast soundings along and to the south of the front from
east-central Illinois into far northern Kentucky at 21Z have MLCAPE
in the 2000 to 3500 J/kg range. Wind profiles along this
west-northwest to east-southeast corridor have directional shear in
the boundary layer with 40 to 50 knots of west-northwesterly flow in
the mid-levels. Some of this zone could have 0-6 km shear in the 40
to 50 knot range along with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around
200 m2/s2. This would support supercells with severe wind gusts and
an isolated tornado threat. Some model forecasts, including the HRRR
suggest that an organized cold pool will develop during the late
afternoon. This scenario could result in a swath of wind damage
across parts of the Ohio Valley.

...Central and Northern Plains/Midwest...
At mid-levels, rising heights and west-northwesterly flow will be in
place over the north-central U.S. on Tuesday. At the surface, a cold
front will move southeastward across the northern High Plains, as a
low deepens across South Dakota. Ahead of the front, surface
dewpoints in the 60s and 70s F will contribute to moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Low-level convergence will aid convective
initiation during the mid to late afternoon, with isolated storms
moving east-southeastward from the northern Plains into the Midwest.

Across the moist airmass, MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 2000 to
3000 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 45 knot range. This
will support supercells with isolated severe wind gusts and hail.
However, the rising mid-level heights and lack of large-scale ascent
could result in a more localized severe threat.

..Broyles.. 08/10/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 111210
SWODY2
SPC AC 111208

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0708 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND ALSO FOR PARTS OF THE MIDWEST
AND OHIO VALLEY...

CORRECTED FOR REVERSED THUNDER LINE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL US

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe gusts and hail will be possible Wednesday
afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern High
Plains. Damaging gusts and isolated hail will also be possible
across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley.

...Parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley...
Guidance continues to vary considerably regarding potential for
early-day convection across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley.
Any morning convection will in turn influence the position of an
effective frontal zone that will generally extend from parts of the
mid MO Valley into the lower OH Valley. Strong heating, rich
low-level moisture, and generally steep lapse rates will result in
strong to extreme buoyancy to the warm side of the front, with
substantial MUCAPE possible to the immediate cool side of the front.


Multiple scenarios are possible. There will be some potential for
any early-day storm cluster to propagate southeastward through the
day, with a damaging-wind and isolated hail threat. Diurnal
development will be possible in the vicinity of the frontal zone,
with sufficient deep-layer shear for initial supercell potential.
Hail and possibly a tornado could accompany the strongest diurnal
storms, though there may be a tendency for clustering and perhaps
organized upscale growth, with increasing wind-damage potential.
While uncertainty remains high, one or more rounds of
organized-severe potential could evolve in the vicinity of the
frontal zone, and a 15% wind area was added where guidance currently
has the greatest signal for development.

...Parts of the central/northern High Plains into the lower/mid
Missouri Valley...
To the north of a surface low across southeast CO and an
eastward-extending warm front, moist low-level easterly flow will
support potential for moderate to locally strong destabilization
across parts of western SD/NE into northwest KS/far northeast CO.
Midlevel flow will be relatively modest, but veering wind profiles
will result in sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization.

Initial isolated to widely scattered discrete development could pose
a threat of hail and localized severe gusts. Some upscale growth and
possible MCS development may occur during the late evening and
overnight across parts of central/eastern NE and vicinity. Guidance
varies regarding the organization of any nocturnal MCS, but at least
isolated damaging-wind potential could spread eastward through the
end of the period.

...Northern SD/southern ND into parts of MN/WI/MI...
While the strongest instability will remain south of the region,
moderate buoyancy is forecast to develop along/ahead of a front
draped from near the ND/SD border into southern MN, WI, and Lower
MI. Coverage of storms is uncertain within this regime, but moderate northwesterly mid/upper-level flow and favorable deep-layer shear
will support organized convection, with a threat for strong to
locally severe gusts and hail if any sustained storms develop.

...Carolinas/Southern Appalachians...
The evolution of antecedent upstream convection will have a
considerable influence on the position of the primary surface front
and any organized severe threat across parts of the southern
Appalachians and Carolinas region on Wednesday. At least isolated
storm development will be possible near the front and also across
favored terrain areas, with modest west-northwesterly flow aloft
supporting potential for outflow-driven cells/clusters with a threat
of wind damage. Any features favorably timed with the diurnal cycle
(such as a persistent storm cluster or MCV) could result in a
greater coverage of wind-damage potential, but confidence in the
details is too low for more than 5% wind probabilities at this time.

..Dean.. 08/11/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 140553
SWODY2
SPC AC 140551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...AND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the central
High Plains eastward into parts of the Midwest, Ohio Valley,
southern/central Appalachians, and Carolinas.

...Ohio Valley...

An MCV is forecast to be located in the vicinity of eastern
IA/northern IL Saturday morning. A surface boundary will be draped
northwest to southeast across lower MI toward WV while the surface
low/MCV shifts east across southern Lake MI toward the Lower Great
Lakes through the evening. A very moist airmass will be in place,
and at least a narrow corridor of strong instability may develop.
Spread among forecast guidance remains fairly large regarding these
surface features and corridors of greater destabilization.
Nevertheless, stronger vertical shear in the vicinity of the surface
low/MCV will support organized severe convection. Damaging winds and
perhaps a tornado or two will be possible as convection develops
near the MCV and southeastward along the surface boundary toward
WV/eastern KY.

...VA/Carolinas into the Southeast...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop over higher terrain
within a very moist and moderately unstable airmass Saturday
afternoon. Vertical shear will remain modest, especially with
southward extent into GA/FL, but strong heating could support
sporadic downbursts within the high-PW environment. If sufficient
clustering occurs over higher terrain, a forward-propagating cluster
could move across portions of the Carolinas, producing greater risk
for damaging gusts.

...Central High Plains to the MO Valley...

Another MCV is forecast to be located over KS/NE, moving toward the
Mid-MO Valley. Downstream destabilization is uncertain as this
airmass will have been modified by the downstream MCV moving into
the Midwest. Meanwhile, a moist airmass will be in place westward
into the central High Plains. Upslope flow will support scattered
thunderstorm development over higher terrain by early/mid afternoon.
As convection spreads eastward into eastern CO and vicinity, steep
lapse rates and modest but favorable shear profiles will support at
least transient organized cells capable of producing large hail and
damaging gusts. Additional convection may develop eastward across NE
ahead of a surface cold front, mainly posing a risk for isolated
damaging gusts.

..Leitman.. 08/14/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 150512
SWODY2
SPC AC 150510

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...AND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are possible across parts of the Ohio Valley to the
Mid-Atlantic, and in parts of the central High Plains Sunday
afternoon and evening.

...Midwest to Mid-Atlantic...

A couple of shortwave impulses/MCVs are expected to move across the
region on Sunday within broad, modestly enhanced deep-layer
west/northwesterly flow. One of these shortwave impulses may be
located over the Upper Ohio Valley Sunday morning, resulting in
ongoing cloudiness and possible convection across parts of PA/NJ and
the DelMarVa vicinity. This poses some uncertainty for severe
potential during the afternoon with northward extent across the
Mid-Atlantic. However, further south, stronger heating is
anticipated along with modest destabilization. A second shortwave
impulse/MCV will overspread the area by afternoon, supporting
additional thunderstorm develop over the upper Ohio Valley toward
the Blue Ridge. Sufficient clustering may occur as convection
organizes and spreads southeast through early evening, posing a risk
for damaging gusts.

Further north and west across the Lower Ohio Valley into the Mid-MS
Valley, a very moist and strongly unstable airmass will be in place
ahead of southeastward-advancing cold front. Vertical shear will
generally be weak, but scattered storms developing along the front
will be moving into a very unstable airmass with PW values
near/greater than 2 inches. This could support isolated to widely
scattered storms capable of wind damage.

...High Plains...

Easterly low-level flow will maintain a modestly moist boundary
layer on Sunday. Strong heating and steep midlevel lapse rates will
aid in moderate destabilization. Effective shear magnitudes around
30-40 kt will support organized cells moving east/southeast off
higher terrain by late afternoon through early evening. Large hail
and isolated strong wind gusts will be possible.

..Leitman.. 08/15/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 160528
SWODY2
SPC AC 160526

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NEBRASKA AND THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and
evening across portions of the northern and central Plains, and
parts of the southern Appalachians/Carolinas.

...Northern/Central Plains...

An upper shortwave trough will deepen as it develop east/southeast
across Ontario and the Upper Midwest, resulting in broader height
falls from the northern/central Plains to Great Lakes. As this
occurs, 40-50 kt northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the
region. At the surface, a cold front will extend from northwest MN
into western NE by 00z. Ahead of the front, a corridor of 60s F
dewpoints are expected across central/eastern NE into IA/southeast
SD and MN. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely to develop
by late afternoon ahead of the surface boundary. Modestly steep
lapse rates and strong heating of the moist boundary layer will
result in 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE amid 35+ kt effective shear
magnitudes. This should result in organized supercells structures
capable of large hail and damaging gusts. There is some potential
upscale growth could occur during the evening across NE as a modest
low-level jet develops. If this occurs, the damaging wind risk could
increase.

...South-central Appalachians...

A vorticity max located over the Lower OH Valley will develop
east/southeast through 30-40 kt west/northwesterly flow aloft Monday
afternoon and evening. A very moist and unstable airmass will be in
place amid strong daytime heating. Large-scale ascent will increase
as the vorticity maxima approaches during the afternoon, and a
surface boundary begins to sag south/southeast over the region.
Steep low-level lapse rates, high PW values, and 25-30 kt effective
shear magnitudes could result in organized clusters producing
damaging gusts through evening.

..Leitman.. 08/16/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 161734
SWODY2
SPC AC 161732

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...AND FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and
evening across portions of the northern and central Plains, and
parts of the southern Appalachians/Carolinas. Isolated severe gusts
may occur over Oklahoma.

...Northern Plains...
Stronger winds aloft will overspread the area on Monday with a front
pushing across the region. While temperatures aloft will be cool,
low-level moisture will not be excessive.

Storms are expected to form by 20Z over eastern ND and west-central
MN, and over the Black Hills. The steep lapse rate environment, with
modest MUCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg along with elongated mid to
upper level hodographs will favor cells producing hail over 1.00". A greater/more concentrated severe risk is expected near and after
00Z, as activity matures as it moves southeastward into stronger
instability from NE into southeast SD. Additional cells are also
anticipated over central NE. Large hail is probable with all this
activity, with scattered severe gusts as storms merge/cluster during
the evening. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out late day/early
evening as low-level shear increases with a southwesterly low-level jet.

...Southern Appalachians/Carolinas Vicinity...
The ridge over the Southeast will weaken a bit as a midlevel waves
moves through during the day. Speed at 500 mb will average near 30
kt, with 15-20 kt at 850 mb. This will aid southeastward storm
motions as development occurs within the surface trough/wind shift
from NC and southern VA into TN. Precipitable water near 2.00"
combined with the afternoon well-mixed boundary layer should support
gusty outflow winds, with a few severe gusts over 50 kt possible.
Activity should wane after about 03Z.

...Parts of OK into AR...
Dewpoints are forecast to be relatively high near a weakening
boundary/wind shift that will extend roughly from the TX Panhandle
across central/southern OK and into central AR. Daytime heating will
then lead to a narrow east-west oriented corridor of steep boundary
layer lapse rates, and strong instability. Shear will be weak, and
so will forcing for ascent. However, several CAMs indicate at least
isolated cells developing during the late afternoon, and locally
severe downbursts may occur.

..Jewell.. 08/16/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 180548
SWODY2
SPC AC 180546

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
MISSOURI INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS...AND INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND FAR
WESTERN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce hail and strong
to severe wind gusts from the central Plains to the Mid-Mississippi
Valley and Ozarks. The greatest risk area is from the Ozarks into
the Lower Ohio Valley Wednesday afternoon and evening.

...Southern MO...Northern AR...Western KY/TN...Southern IL...
Gradual height falls will occur throughout the period as a
low-amplitude shortwave trough moves out of the Plains and toward
Mid MS/OH Valleys. Early day thunderstorms may be ongoing from MO
into the Lower OH Valley, but perhaps not particularly strong.
Behind this initial activity, strong instability will redevelop from
MO into northern AR, and western KY/TN with southwest low-level
winds and 70s F dewpoints near a southward moving front over
southern MO. Predictability is a bit low for the boundary position,
but storms may form anywhere from I-70 southward into northern AR
during the late afternoon, moving east/southeast during the evening.
Corridors of damaging wind and hail will be possible, with any brief
tornado chances depending on earlier outflows which may enhance
low-level shear.

...Central and Northern Plains...
A shortwave trough will move from the northern Plains into the Mid
MS Valley on Wednesday, with 40 kt northwest flow at 500 mb across
much of the central Plains. Although a front will push south across
OK and the TX Panhandle, low-level moisture with 50s to 60s F
dewpoints will remain beneath this upper trough, and strong heating
will lead to clusters of storms within a weak surface trough/wind
shift by late afternoon. Favored areas will be from SD into NE where temperatures aloft will be cold and counteract the lack of low-level
moisture, and from the Front Range southward into northeast NM.
Scattered hail over 1.00" or locally severe gusts will be possible
through early evening as storms travel southeastward out of the High
Plains and across SD, NE and KS.

..Jewell.. 08/18/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)