ACUS01 KWNS 301250
SWODY1
SPC AC 301249

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Valid 301300Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be
possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and
northern Plains, but especially across parts of Nebraska and South
Dakota. Isolated severe wind gusts may also occur across parts of
the Southeast.

...Central and Northern Plains including Nebraska/South Dakota...
An amplifying shortwave trough evident in water vapor imagery over
Wyoming this morning will continue east and then a bit southeastward
through tonight toward the middle Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest.
A cold front will become more southeastward-progressive later today
and tonight, intercepting a moisture-rich air mass across Kansas
into Nebraska/South Dakota.

Early day scattered precipitation/cloud cover will tend to abate
and/or shift away from the region later today, allowing for ample
insolation near a surface trough and ahead of the front.
Mid-tropospheric winds will be weak, but a few initial supercells
could occur in vicinity of south-central South Dakota into central
Nebraska amidst somewhat stronger effective shear. Some severe hail
will be possible early in the developmental cycle, but damaging
winds should be an increasing and more common concern with the
expectation that storms will cluster, grow upscale, and progress
southeastward this evening, aided by an increasingly strong
southwesterly low-level jet.

Further west into parts of the High Plains, pockets of moderate
instability may develop in parts of eastern Colorado, western Kansas
and eastern Montana. Although large-scale ascent will be weak in
these areas, topographic forcing will aid convective initiation.
During the mid/late afternoon into evening, isolated to scattered
storms will move east-southeastward into the lower elevations,
including the possibility of storms spreading from southern
Saskatchewan into northeast Montana, where a somewhat more
severe-favorable environment will exist. Localized strong to severe
wind gusts and hail will be possible regionally.

...Southeast/Florida...
A very moist air mass will persist regionally to the south of a
generally west/east-oriented front. Scattered thunderstorms are
already ongoing this morning particularly across northern Florida
and nearby offshore waters, with additional storm development
expected to the north near and just south of the front where
stronger insolation/destabilization is expected. Some of the
stronger storms that develop and mature will be capable of isolated
damaging wind gusts through late afternoon/early evening.

..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/30/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
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ACUS01 KWNS 310529
SWODY1
SPC AC 310527

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OZARKS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this
afternoon and evening across parts of the Ozarks and mid Mississippi
Valley. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible in parts of the
southern Plains and from east-central Colorado into northeastern New Mexico.

...Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley...
At mid-levels, a positively tilted shortwave trough will move
southeastward across the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. An
associated cold front will advance southeastward into the western
Ozarks. Ahead of the front, an axis of moisture will be in place
with surface dewpoints in the 70s F. As surface temperatures warm,
moderate instability will develop along and near the moist axis,
with MLCAPE forecast to peak in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range during
the afternoon. In addition to the instability, mid-level flow will
be westerly at 30 to 35 knots, which will contribute to moderate
deep-layer shear over much of the moist sector. This will result a
mixed mode with supercells and organized line segments both
possible. Along the instability axis, 0-3 km lapse rates are
forecast to peak near 7 C/km which will support a threat for severe
wind gusts. The threat could persist into the early to mid evening
as storms move southeastward across the mid Mississippi Valley.

...Southern Plains/East-central Colorado/Northeast New Mexico...
Northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the
central U.S. today. At the surface, a cold front will move southward
into central Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle by afternoon. An axis
of moderate instability will develop ahead of the front as
temperatures become hot in the mid to late afternoon. Increasing
low-level convergence near the front will result in scattered
thunderstorm development. These storms will move south-southeastward
across the Red River Valley and southward across the Caprock of west
Texas. Very steep low to mid-level lapse rates and large temperature
dewpoint spreads exceeding 40 degrees F in some areas will result in
a potential for isolated severe wind gusts.

Further west into east-central Colorado and northeast New Mexico, an
axis of instability will develop by afternoon in and near the
foothills of the southern Rockies. Storms will form in the mid to
late afternoon in the higher terrain and gradually move
southeastward into the lower elevations. Steep low to mid-level
lapse rates will support a potential for isolated severe gusts. Hail
could also occur with the stronger updrafts.

..Broyles/Chalmers.. 07/31/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
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ACUS01 KWNS 031227
SWODY1
SPC AC 031226

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0726 AM CDT Mon Aug 03 2026

Valid 031300Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today across parts of
northern Minnesota into adjacent portions of the eastern Dakotas, as
well as across southeastern Arizona.

...Upper Midwest southward into the central High Plains...
Radar mosaic shows a loose cluster of mainly occasionally strong
thunderstorm activity over the Red River Valley. This activity has
developed partly in response to isentropic lift downstream of an eastward-migrating mid-level speed max over the northern Rockies and
adjacent plains. The morning showers/thunderstorms will likely
reinforce a frontal zone draped southwest to northeast over the region.

Heating in wake of early day cloud cover will foster moderate
destabilization by mid afternoon as mid to upper-level flow
gradually strengthens. The initial storms later today will likely
pose a risk for severe gusts and large hail and perhaps a tornado if
a couple of storms can acquire supercell characteristics and mature
within a moist axis ahead of the front. Otherwise, small clusters
will probably evolve with time and pose mainly a wind/hail threat.
Farther south, lower storm coverage is expected along a surface
trough into the central High Plains. Isolated, high-based storms
will slowly move east within a hot airmass featuring very steep
lapse rates. Isolated severe gusts may accompany the stronger cores
and outflow before these storms wane by mid evening.

...Southeastern Arizona/adjacent New Mexico...
Model guidance continues to indicate a belt of enhanced mid to upper northeasterlies over northern Sonora into far southeastern
AZ/southwestern NM. Very strong heating resulting in moderate
destabilization and orographic lift will favor scattered
thunderstorm development by late afternoon into the early evening.
Models (e.g., MPAS, HREF) show a cluster or two propagating on
outflow into the lower deserts during the evening with very steep
0-3 km lapse rates preceding this convection. Severe gusts 60 to 75
mph will be the primary hazard.

...Northern Mid Atlantic through western New England...
Along and ahead of a weak cold front, trailing a deepening surface
low migrating northeastward toward the lower St. Lawrence Valley, boundary-layer destabilization will probably be slowed, if not
inhibited, by weak mid-level lapse rates and early day cloud cover/precipitation. However, strengthening deep-layer wind fields
and shear will potentially become more supportive of organized
thunderstorm development. If a couple of stronger updrafts can
develop, a risk for damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado
may materialize---contingent on sufficient destabilization occurring prior.

..Smith/Bentley.. 08/03/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 061328
SWODY1
SPC AC 061326

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0826 AM CDT Thu Aug 06 2026

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS...

CORRECTED FOR WIND LINES

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable primarily
of a severe-wind threat will be possible this afternoon and evening
over parts of Ozarks and Great Plains. Isolated strong to locally
severe gusts capable of wind damage are possible from the
Mid-Atlantic northward into New York.

...Ozarks westward into the southern High Plains...
Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level anticyclone centered over
AZ/UT and a broad trough over the Upper Midwest favoring modest west-northwesterly mid to high-level flow across the central Plains.
Several clusters of showers/thunderstorms are ongoing this morning
from the mid MS Valley and lower MO Valley into the OK-KS border
region. Much of this activity is located to the north of a residual
front and outflow draped from the TX Panhandle east-northeast into
the mid MS Valley. South of the boundary, an appreciably moist
airmass, featuring 50s F dewpoints west to lower 70s east, will heat
in areas void of convection and related cloud debris. It is
uncertain how much influence morning showers/storms will have across
the Slight Risk area. Nonetheless, model forecast soundings show
moderate destabilization occurring by mid-late afternoon across much
of this region. Isolated to widely scattered storms will
preferentially develop near the effective front/outflow. Some storm organization is possible with the main threat being isolated to
widely scattered severe gusts. Have adjusted the level 1 intensity
for wind to northern OK westward into the southern High Plains where
steep low-level lapse rates are forecast. A couple of multicell
clusters may eventually evolve during the early evening. A relative
minimum in storm activity may occur over parts of the TX Panhandle
in between storms over the northeast NM/western part of the TX
Panhandle and higher coverage of storms farther east over northern
OK into the Ozarks.

...Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast...
Mid-level flow will be southwesterly over the Northeast today. At
the surface, a trough will be located from the Atlantic Coastal
Plains of Virginia north-northeastward into the southeastern New
York. As surface temperatures warm today, thunderstorms will
develop in the foothills of the Appalachians, moving
east-northeastward into the lower elevations and toward the surface
trough. Surface dewpoints near the trough will be in the lower to
mid 70s F, which will contribute to moderate destabilization by
early afternoon (MLCAPE 1000-2500 J/kg). Some of the stronger
water-loaded downdrafts will be capable of an isolated risk for wind
damage.

...Western Nebraska/southern South Dakota...
West-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over much of the north-central U.S. At the surface, an axis of low-level
moisture will set up from western Nebraska into far southern South
Dakota, where dewpoints will be in the 60s F. Near this axis, model
forecasts show a pocket of moderate instability this afternoon with
MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg. Although large-scale ascent will be weak,
any cell that can initiate near the instability axis could be
capable of producing isolated severe gusts/large hail.

..Smith/Bentley.. 08/06/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 071236
SWODY1
SPC AC 071234

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 AM CDT Fri Aug 07 2026

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of scattered damaging wind gusts are possible
this afternoon and early evening over parts of the Mid-Atlantic
states. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across
portions of the central U.S. and Arizona.

...Mid-Atlantic...
A relatively nondescript pattern is located over the region between
a Bermuda high and troughing over the Upper Midwest. Seasonably
strong heating of a moist airmass (12 UTC Dulles, VA raob sampled a
14 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio) will support a
destabilizing boundary layer and scattered thunderstorm development
this afternoon. A few thunderstorm clusters will probably evolve
through the late afternoon into the early evening as this activity
moves through the I-95 corridor. Isolated strong to locally severe
gusts (i.e., 50-60 mph) capable of scattered wind damage will be the
primary threat with the stronger cores.

...Mid-Missouri Valley into the Lake Superior region...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough
moving southeastward over the Red River Valley towards the Upper
Great Lakes later today. In response to forcing for ascent
associated with the disturbance, a couple of ongoing thunderstorm
clusters will probably continue this morning. There is low
confidence in the evolution of these clusters and an associated
severe risk. Nonetheless, as a cold front continues to push
southeast across the Upper Midwest later today, additional storm
development is likely but details are nebulous at this time. Model
guidance indicates a greater overlap of CAPE/shear may focus across
western IA later this afternoon. Will re-evaluate in subsequent
outlook updates for whether a mesoscale corridor can be identified
with a locally greater severe risk within the larger Marginal Risk
denoting isolated hail/wind potential.

...Southern High Plains into the Ozarks...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop across northeast NM
into the TX Panhandle this afternoon. Relatively high uncertainty
remains regarding storm placement removed from the higher terrain of
northeast NM. Regardless, ample heating of an adequately moist but
deepening boundary layer will support a thermodynamic profile
favoring severe gusts with the stronger cores and associated
outflow.

Further east into OK, KS, and the Ozarks, ongoing elevated storms
from northern OK into eastern KS are likely rooted near the base of
the EML. This activity will probably diminish in spatial extent
through midday, but it is possible additional storms will develop
along the outflow and could yield localized strong/severe storm
potential. Will defer severe highlights at this time due to low predictability.

...Arizona...
Latest convection-allowing model ensembles and MPAS guidance imply
some risk for widely scattered storms to develop over the Mogollon
Rim and the higher terrain in southeast AZ and gradually spread into
the lower deserts this evening. Given the steep lapse rates
preceding this potential convection and possible scenario, have
introduced low-severe wind probabilities.

...Nebraska/South Dakota...
Elevated convection is expected to develop across portions of
northern NE and southern SD during the overnight hours tonight as
isentropic ascent increases in tandem with a modest intensification
of a low-level jet. Low-level moistening through 850 mb under a
plume of 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates should promote adequate
buoyancy for a few robust updrafts (though confidence in storm
coverage is limited due to the weak nature of the forcing for
ascent). However, strong shear across the region will likely promote
organized convection, including a supercell or two, capable of
producing large hail.

..Smith/Kerr.. 08/07/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 101248
SWODY1
SPC AC 101247

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible this afternoon
and evening from northern Illinois eastward into Pennsylvania.
Severe gusts and hail will also be possible from parts of the
central and northern Plains into the Midwest, with scattered severe
storms over southern Arizona.

...Synopsis...
Another highly uncertain and complex forecast with mesoscale
convective dependencies apparent this forecast update. Water-vapor
imagery implies a belt of west-northwest mid to high-level flow
extending across the northern High Plains east through much of the
Midwest, and to the north of a flattened mid-level ridge extending
from the Four Corners to FL. Embedded within the flow, a
convectively augmented disturbance over the southern Great Lakes
will move east into PA by early this afternoon. Another minor
perturbation over southwest MT this morning will quickly move into
the Dakotas by early evening and probably influence the severe
threat from SD into adjacent parts of IA/MN overnight.

...IL to the Mid-Atlantic...
Radar mosaic this morning shows an organized line segment moving
east along the OH-Lake Erie shoreline and a couple of other
thunderstorm clusters over western OH and south-central PA. The
Detroit, MI WSR-88D VAD showed a mid-level speed max associated with
the convectively augmented vorticity max moving east across the Lake
Erie vicinity. Gradual intensification of storms is expected this
morning as the boundary layer heats downstream across OH into PA and
the Mid-Atlantic states (refer to MCD 1892 for short-term details
regarding the northeast OH thunderstorms). Of particular note, the
12 UTC Pittsburgh, PA and Wilmington, OH raobs showed a moderate to
very unstable airmass (1800-2700 J/kg MLCAPE, respectively) in place
over the upper OH Valley. Severe gusts capable of scattered wind
damage will be possible through the afternoon with any stronger
thunderstorms and clusters of storms. Farther west, models show
storm redevelopment perhaps centered over northern IN/IL later this afternoon/evening. Shear/buoyancy profiles will support organized
storms, including supercells and linear clusters. Damaging wind and
hail will be the primary hazards, though a tornado or two also could
occur.

...Dakotas into MN/IA...
Similar to previous forecast thinking, southeasterly low-level flow
will aid in the transport of seasonably rich moisture (mainly 60s F
surface dewpoints) north and west into SD. Model forecast soundings
show large buoyancy developing by mid afternoon within the
aforementioned moist plume. The weak impulse implied by model
guidance moving into western SD may enable at least isolated to
potentially scattered storms developing towards early evening over
western and central SD. The 00z ECMWF and 00z HREF consensus
suggest a linear cluster evolves during the evening and grows
upscale into an MCS during the overnight moving east-southeast along
a residual frontal zone. Have included an intensity level-1 to
denote this conditional but significant wind risk if this forecast
scenario occurs.

...AZ...
Mid/upper easterly flow will persist today amid plentiful moisture
and strong heating. This will support thunderstorm development once
again across higher terrain. Scattered storms are forecast to
eventually develop with their cold pools coalescing over the lower
desert. Based on the latest CAM guidance and inverted-V profiles
with marginally supportive shear for loose storm organization, have
upgraded a part of the lower desert into higher severe-wind
probabilities. Widely scattered to scattered severe gusts 60-75 mph
are possible with this activity.

...NE/CO/KS...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop near a surface
trough across western NE/northeast CO by late afternoon/early
evening. As the high-based storms mature into possibly a small
linear cluster and move into richer moisture with east extent, steep
low- to mid-level lapse rates will support severe gusts (60-75 mph)
and perhaps hail with this activity.

..Smith/Kerr.. 08/10/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 121237
SWODY1
SPC AC 121236

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Valid 121300Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today through this
evening from parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio
Valley into portions of the central and northern High Plains.
Severe gusts and large hail are the primary hazards.

...IA to OH Valley...
Radar/satellite imagery this morning show several thunderstorm
clusters ongoing from IA into the OH Valley. The most notable
thunderstorm cluster is over far eastern IA and is moving into
central and northern IL this morning. The airmass downstream of
this activity is very moist and extremely unstable [reference the 12
UTC Davenport, IA raob (4300 J/kg MLCAPE)], and it is located near
the terminus of a 35-kt west-southwesterly LLJ over northern MO.
Expecting a gradual intensification of storms this morning across IL
with a risk for scattered severe gusts and associated wind damage. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the eventual evolution of
additional storm clusters over parts of the Midwest through this
afternoon. Outflow from morning showers/storms over eastern IN into
central KY will likely inhibit appreciable severe risk farther east
across parts of the OH Valley. Nonetheless, a moist and
destabilizing boundary layer will lend a risk for scattered wind
damage and isolated large hail with the stronger storms through the
late afternoon and evening.

...Northern/Central Plains...
East/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain modest moisture
across the Dakotas, increasing with southward extent across NE into
northern KS. Near-60 F dewpoints will likely spread westward into
eastern CO/WY/MT beneath steep lapse rates. Ample heating will
result in moderate buoyancy and 30+ kt effective shear---supporting
some organization to the scattered thunderstorms forecast to develop
later this afternoon/evening. Initial cells will pose a threat for
large hail and severe gusts. Some clustering may occur during the
evening but confidence remains low regarding specific corridors
where the severe threat will focus.

...Lower MI into NY/PA/NJ...
A belt of stronger northwesterly flow aloft will extend from Lower
MI into NY/PA today. A seasonally moist/unstable airmass will be in
place. Vertically veering wind profiles will foster 35+ kt
effective shear magnitudes, while hodographs are fairly elongated.
Midlevel lapse rates will remain modest, with MLCAPE around
1000-1500 J/kg expected. Isolated to widely scattered storms will
pose a risk for damaging gusts and marginally severe hail.

...TN Valley/Southeast...
Thunderstorms are expected to develop by midday within a very moist
and strongly unstable airmass. Deep-layer northwesterly flow will
remain weak, but steepened 0-2 km lapse rates and high PW (near 2
inches) will support an isolated risk for some stronger water-loaded
downdrafts capable of wind damage.

...Lower CO River Valley...
Model guidance shows widely scattered storms developing this
afternoon near a weak upper trough analyzed this morning via
water-vapor imagery. Some of the stronger thunderstorm downdrafts
may be capable of isolated severe gusts.

..Smith/Kerr.. 08/12/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 131240
SWODY1
SPC AC 131238

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL IOWA
INTO EAST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today from
parts of the southern/central High Plains to the mid Mississippi and
lower Ohio Valleys. Severe gusts capable of wind damage should be
the main threat, but occasional hail may also occur.

...Iowa into Illinois/Indiana...
Radar mosaic/IR imagery loops show a long-lived MCS over central IA
moving east towards the MS River this morning. Widely scattered
severe gusts 60-70 mph are possible with the more intense bowing
structures and short-lived mesovortices embedded within the line,
along with a brief tornado risk (for short-term details, reference
MCD #1966). This activity will continue into IL but limited
confidence regarding its evolution and subsequent severe risk cast
uncertainty whether it will reinvigorate or additional strong/severe
storms will develop on the leading edge of outflow. Regardless, a
moist airmass across the eastern Corn Belt will destabilize amid a
veil of high clouds. Forecast model guidance shows 35-45 effective
shear supporting organized storms. Isolated to scattered damaging
gusts will be the primary severe hazard, although a brief tornado
and marginally severe hail are also possible through the early
evening.

...Southern/Central High Plains...
High-based thunderstorms are forecast to initially develop over the
higher terrain of the central Rockies/Front Range this afternoon,
with post-frontal low-level upslope flow persisting across the
central High Plains. Storm motions into slightly richer moisture
will favor some aggregation of outflow within a hot boundary layer
featuring steep lapse rates. Isolated to widely scattered severe
gusts 60-75 mph are possible, along with occasional hail with a few
of the stronger cores that develop. It seems possible a
smaller-scale area within this broad region may focus a slightly
more concentrated severe-wind threat. However, given the modest
large-scale forcing mechanisms and marginal deep-layer shear for
storm organization, will defer higher severe-wind probabilities for
the time being.

...Great Basin...
Modestly enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow will persist today
across the Great Basin downstream of a weak mid-level trough over
CA. Weak to locally moderate instability is forecast via diurnal
heating. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected and some
of the stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts will be capable of
60-75 mph gusts.

...Northeast...
Seasonably cool mid-level temperatures are forecast today across
parts of the Northeast, with a mid-level trough expected to move east-southeastward from Quebec into New England. While instability
is forecast to remain fairly limited, strong west-northwesterly flow
aloft may support a risk for isolated damaging winds (50-65 mph)
with thunderstorms that develop and spread southeastward through the
afternoon. Isolated hail may also occur with the stronger cells.

..Smith/Kerr.. 08/13/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 141249
SWODY1
SPC AC 141247

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
MID MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and
evening across parts of the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi
Valleys. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible in parts of the
central Plains and from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic.

...Mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys...
An extensive band of showers and thunderstorms currently extends
from northeast NE southeastward across central IA, central IL, and
central IN. These showers and thunderstorms have been supported by
warm-air advection across a relatively broad/diffuse frontal zone
extending from southeast NE east-southeastward across northern MO
and southern IL. Overall coverage and intensity of these showers and thunderstorms is forecast to gradually wane throughout the morning
as the low-level jet responsible for the warm-air advection weakens.

Primary severe risk across this region today will be linked to the
amount of air mass recovery and associated destabilization that
occurs along the southern periphery of this band, ahead of a
well-defined MCV generated by overnight convection across KS and NE.
Ample low-level moisture is in place, and differential heating
between the residual cloud debris from the early morning storms
could result in a warm-front-like zone across southern IA or
northern MO. Where this boundary sets up, its strength, and its
location all still remain uncertain this morning, largely due to the
limited predictability of how the ongoing precipitation evolves. The
airmass along and south of this boundary is forecast to destabilize
and become moderately to strongly unstable by the late afternoon.
Additionally, low-level convergence along this boundary should be
augmented by mesoscale ascent attendant to the MCV progressing
through the region. The resulting combination of lift and buoyancy
will support thunderstorm development. A belt of stronger mid-level
flow could accompany the MCV, resulting in enough deep-layer shear
to support organized storm structures with any persistent updrafts.
Strong gusts associated with water-loaded downdrafts, as well as
with any bowing segments, are the primary severe risk. Presence of
the boundary coupled with southeasterly low-level flow will also
support the potential for a brief tornado, particularly early in the
convective cycle when a more cellular mode is likely.

...Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic...
Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing from IL into OH. These showers
and thunderstorms will likely weaken this morning but associated
cloud cover could reinforce a modest baroclinic zone that extends
from southern IL across southern IN/southern OH and through central
WV/central VA. A modest vorticity max over central IL is forecast to
progress southeast within the west-northwesterly mid-level flow
along and north of this boundary today. Ascent attendant to this
vorticity maximum coupled with low-level convergence and afternoon
airmass destabilization will support renewed thunderstorm
development. Vertical shear will be weak, but strong updrafts and
ample moisture could result in a threat for wet microbursts.

...Central High Plains...
A shortwave trough currently moving through the Lower CO River
Valley is forecast to continue northeastward through the Four
Corners. Ascent associated with this wave will combine with
orographic lift in the foothills of the Rockies to support scattered
convective initiation by early afternoon. Thunderstorms will then
move northeastward into the moderately buoyant airmass over the
central High Plains. Deep-layer shear will be modest but sufficient
for a few organized updrafts capable of hail and damaging gusts.

...Southern NV Vicinity...
Dewpoints are in the 60s across southern CA, the Lower CO River
Valley, and southern AZ. Strong heating will support afternoon
airmass destabilization, combining with the moisture in place to
support moderate buoyancy. Slightly stronger mid-level flow is
anticipated over the southern NV vicinity, supporting the potential
for isolated strong gusts.

..Mosier/Dean.. 08/14/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 151251
SWODY1
SPC AC 151249

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Valid 151300Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS WELL AS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be
possible from late afternoon into the evening across the central
High Plains. Severe wind gusts will also be possible this afternoon
into the early evening across parts of the Ohio Valley.

...Central High Plains...
Relatively moist southwesterly flow aloft coupled with strong
daytime heating and lift both from orographic effects and a weak
vorticity maximum will support another day of thunderstorms across
the central Rockies. These thunderstorms should gradually move off
the higher terrain into the central High Plains, where a moderately
buoyant airmass will be in place. Around 30 to 35 kt of effective
bulk shear is expected over the region as well, which is strong
enough to support a mixed mode with supercells and multicell line
segments. Isolated large hail is possible with any supercells, while
severe wind gusts will be possible with both supercells and line
segments. The severe threat should persist into the early to mid
evening as this complex of storms moves eastward through the central
High Plains.

...Central OH Valley...
An expansive, slow-moving MCS, characterized by widespread showers
and sub-severe thunderstorms, is centered over central IL this
morning. This MCS has been supported overnight by a southwesterly
low-level jet that extends from the southern High Plains into the
Mid MS Valley. This low-level jet is forecast to wane throughout the
morning, with a subsequent decrease in coverage and intensity of the
showers and thunderstorms within the MCS. Even so, the vorticity
maximum associated with this system will gradually drift eastward,
likely supporting renewed thunderstorm development across the
middle/upper OH Valley as it interacts with a diurnally
destabilizing airmass. Lapse rates will be poor, but dewpoints in
the 70s will still support moderate buoyancy, particularly in areas
where cloud cover does not overly inhibit diurnal heating. This
currently appears most likely from far southeast IN into southern OH
and northern KY. Strong updrafts and high precipitable water will
support the potential for wet microbursts capable of producing
damaging gusts.

...Central Appalachians into the Carolinas and GA...
A very moist airmass, characterized by dewpoints in the low to mid
70s, is in place from the GA and Carolinas into the central
Appalachians. Strong heating is forecast to destabilize this airmass
by the early afternoon, resulting in a large reservoir of moderate
buoyancy. Thunderstorm development is anticipated within this
destabilized airmass across the higher terrain of the central
Appalachians as well as any area of low-level convergence across the
remainder of the region. Vertical shear will be weak, and limited
storm organization is anticipated. Even so, the moderate buoyancy
could still support updrafts/downdrafts strong enough to produce
occasional damaging gusts.

...Central Plains/Mid MO Valley into the Mid MS Valley...
Elevated thunderstorms are expected again this evening through
tonight, initiated by both an approaching cold front and warm-air
advection. Ample low-level moisture and moderate buoyancy will be in
place, but vertical shear will be marginal. Isolated strong to
severe storms are expected, but a predominantly elevated and
clustered storm mode should limit the overall severe potential.

..Mosier/Dean.. 08/15/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 161244
SWODY1
SPC AC 161242

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Valid 161300Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...MID-ATLANTIC...AND CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts will be possible from this
afternoon into early evening over parts of the Ohio Valley and
Mid-Atlantic. Large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will also be
possible in parts of the central High Plains.

...Lower MO Valley through the OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic...
Satellite and regional radar imagery shows several vorticity maxima
embedded within the moderate westerly flow aloft that extends from
the central Plains across the OH Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic.
The strongest vorticity maximum is currently moving through
north-central KS and south-central NE, while more subtle maxima
exist across western IL, southwestern Lower MI/far northern IN, and
western PA. Each of these features will likely contribute to showers
and thunderstorms later today. The most consequential of these
storms will likely occur in tandem with the western IL and
southwestern Lower MI waves as they interact with a moist and
diurnally destabilized airmass from the middle OH Valley into the
Mid-Atlantic. Airmass destabilization appears likely by the early
afternoon, with renewed thunderstorm development anticipated from
southeast Lower MI into southern IN. Moderate vertical shear will be
in place, supporting a predominantly multicellular mode. Mid-level
winds may increase slightly throughout the afternoon, and a
supercell or two is possible over southern OH. A trend towards
clustering and the development of linear segments is anticipated
over time, with damaging gusts as the primary risk throughout the
day.

These storms will continue eastward across WV into Mid-Atlantic
during the late afternoon/early evening. Moderate buoyancy will
support storm persistence and the potential for continued damaging
gusts. Additional thunderstorm development is possible ahead of
these clusters in areas of low-level convergence during the
afternoon. Moderate vertical shear could support a few more
organized storms, with water-loaded downbursts as the primary severe
risk. A tornado or two is also possible, particularly across
northern VA where southerly surface winds could result in adequate
low-level hodograph curvature.

Farther west (across the Lower MO Valley), the well-defined
vorticity maximum currently over north-central KS/southern-central
NE is forecast to be east of the region by the late afternoon, but
airmass destabilization in its wake is uncertain. If the airmass can
recover, additional thunderstorms are likely along a cold front
moving into the region this evening. Strong buoyancy will support
robust updrafts, but modest vertical shear will keep storm
organization limited. If thunderstorms form, a few strong gusts are
possible across this region this evening.

...Northern/Central High Plains...
Scattered thunderstorm development in anticipated this afternoon
across the northern and central High Plains. Thunderstorms over the
northern High Plains will be supported by low-level convergence
along the western edge of the moist airmass over the Plains.
Moderate vertical shear could support a few supercells capable of
hail and strong gusts, but modest buoyancy should keep the overall
severe threat isolated.

Thunderstorm development farther south across the central High
Plains will result from a combination of moist low-level easterlies,
westerly flow aloft and orographic effects. Here, more cellular
development over the high terrain and immediate foothills could pose
a risk for large hail before transitioning towards more linear
structures with strong gusts as the primary severe risk.

..Mosier/Dean.. 08/16/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 181249
SWODY1
SPC AC 181247

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Valid 181300Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
KANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be
possible this afternoon and evening from the central Plains into the
lower Missouri Valley. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be
possible from the Northern Rockies into the central High Plains, and
eastward into the Midwest and southern Lower Michigan. Damaging
gusts could also occur across parts of Mississippi and Alabama.

...Central Plains into Lower MO Valley...
Warm-air advection showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing
across south-central/southeast NE. This activity is likely
reinforcing an outflow boundary from an earlier MCS that extends
from northwest KS into the NE/KS/MO border vicinity. These showers
and thunderstorms are expected to continue southeastward over the
next few hours, while gradually diminishing in coverage and
intensity. How this outflow modifies will influence the thunderstorm
potential across northern KS this afternoon. If the boundary does
not wash out, there could be a region of notable convergence that
develops across in the northwestern/north-central KS between the
outflow (reinforced by an approaching cold front) and a heat-driven
surface low that develops across western KS. Even with this
potential convergence, convective initiation is uncertain. Most
guidance maintains warm low/mid level temperatures, with the
resultant capping suppressing any thunderstorm development. Steep
lapse rates, moderate deep-layer vertical shear, and strong buoyancy
are expected north of the boundary, and there is a conditional risk
for large to very large hail and strong downdrafts if any updrafts
can mature.

A more certain scenario is expected farther east across eastern KS,
where evening thunderstorm development is anticipated as the
low-level jet increases. Steep lapse rates and moderate vertical
shear support the potential for thunderstorms capable of large hail
during the initially more cellular mode. These storms will likely
cluster quickly, with a trend towards upscale growth into a
forward-propagating MCS which then moves into MO. Damaging gusts
will become the primary risk once this occurs.

...Northern Rockies through the Central High Plains...
A shortwave trough is forecast to progress southeastward from
British Columbia/Alberta into the northern Rockies. Thunderstorm
development is anticipated across the northern Rockies as this wave
interacts with the destabilized and buoyant airmass across the
region. Moderate westerly flow will accompany this wave as well,
supporting the potential for more organized storm structures and the development of several line segments. These widely scattered
thunderstorms are forecast to progress eastward/southeastward this afternoon/evening, with additional development possible from WY into
the central High Plains. The moderate westerly flow aloft, high
storm bases, and steep low-level lapse rates support the potential
for strong to severe wind gusts as these storms progress eastward/southeastward.

...Southern WI/northern IL into Lower MI...
Low-level moisture is expected to increase across the Midwest ahead
of an approaching cold front, resulting in moderate buoyancy by the
late afternoon. Convergence along the front will be weak but still
sufficient for convective initiation, with the combination of
moderate buoyancy and moderate westerly flow aloft supporting strong
to severe storms. An initially more cellular mode could yield large
hail within the strongest storms. A quick transition towards more
linear modes is anticipated, with damaging gusts becoming the
primary severe risk within any strong line segments.

...MS/AL...
Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated across MS and AL
as a weak vorticity maximum progresses southeastward into the warm,
moist, and unstable environment in place across the region. Vertical
shear will be weak, and an outflow-dominant, multicellular mode is
expected. Even so, some clustering into one or more line segments
appears probable, resulting in scattered thunderstorm coverage.
Steep low-level lapse rates and relatively high cloud bases support
the potential for strong downdrafts with any more robust convection.

..Mosier/Bunting.. 08/18/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)