ACUS03 KWNS 230718
SWODY3
SPC AC 230717

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms will be possible from portions of the
Southwest to the central/southern High Plains and across the
southern Ohio Valley and the Southeast. Additional shower and
thunderstorm activity will be possible across the Pacific Northwest.
Severe storms are generally not expected.

On D3/Monday, guidance suggests that height rises will begin across
the central US as a high amplitude ridge builds in from the west. An
upper level low will begin to deepen and move inland across the
Pacific Northwest through the period. Though instability will be
minimal, cooling temperatures aloft with the upper low may promote a
few thunderstorms towards the end of the period.

Slow moisture return will continue across much of the Plains into
the Midwest, with areas of widely scattered areas of thunderstorms
possible across portions of the Southwest to the southern/central
High Plains and from the southern Ohio Valley into the Southeast. A
few strong to marginally severe storms will be possible from the
Plains to the Southeast where better instability resides, but
generally weak flow and subsidence aloft will keep organized storm
potential low.

..Thornton.. 05/23/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS03 KWNS 310731
SWODY3
SPC AC 310730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOWER GREAT
LAKES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND PARTS OF EASTERN GEORGIA...AND OVER
PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated occurrences of mainly damaging winds are possible from the
Lower Great Lakes into the Carolinas and parts of eastern Georgia
Sunday afternoon and evening. A conditional threat for large hail
and severe wind gusts exists across parts of North Dakota into far
northwest Minnesota late Sunday afternoon into night.

...Synopsis...

A mid-level trough will advance slowly through the lower Great
Lakes, OH and TN Valleys, and the central Gulf Coast states Sunday
and Sunday night. Ahead of the trough, south-southwest winds in the
mid levels will gradually strengthen through the forecast period. At
the surface, an area of low pressure will develop from the mid into
the upper OH Valley, while a trailing front edges east through the
TN Valley and central Gulf Coast.

Elsewhere, a seasonably strong short-wave trough is forecast to move
through the Canadian Prairie Provinces with an associated belt of
50-60 kt mid-level winds spreading from the northern Rockies into
the northern Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance into
the northern Plains by Sunday afternoon into night.

...Lower Great Lakes into the Southeast...

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Sunday morning
from the lower Great Lakes into central Appalachians within a zone
of warm advection and moisture transport along a low-level jet. Some
of the early-day storms may linger into afternoon with associated
cloud cover limiting air mass destabilization. Where cloud breaks
can occur, increased daytime heating and boundary-layer dewpoints in
the 60s to mid 70s will contribute to corridors of moderate
instability, the highest confidence of which is from southern VA
into the Savannah River Valley.

Aided by forcing for ascent ahead of the mid-level trough,
thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity
through the afternoon, especially in areas of greater instability
from the upper OH Valley into Carolinas. In general, storms may
remain somewhat disorganized, posing mainly a damaging wind risk
during the afternoon into evening. A possible exception is across
the upper OH Valley, where stronger vertical shear will be
supportive of organized storms modes, given sufficient destabilization.

...Northern Plains...

Boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s to 70s locally will coincide
with steep low/mid-level lapse rates to yield a moderately to
strongly unstable, but capped air mass by afternoon ahead of the
front. The strongest forcing for ascent associated with the Canadian
short-wave trough is expected to remain north of the international
border, leading to uncertainty in whether the combination of daytime
heating and frontal convergence will be sufficient to initiate
surface-based storms.

On the condition that storms develop and are sustained, the presence
of 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear across the frontal zone will support
organized storm modes, including supercells with an associated large
hail and severe wind gust threat. That conditional risk will exist
from late Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. However, given the
uncertainty in storm development, only 5% probabilities will be
included in this forecast.

..Mead.. 07/31/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS03 KWNS 060712
SWODY3
SPC AC 060711

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 AM CDT Thu Aug 06 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEBRASKA
INTO PARTS OF IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
A corridor of damaging winds may develop Saturday afternoon and
evening from Nebraska into Iowa/Northern Missouri.

...Mid to Lower MO Valley...
Moderate northwest flow aloft will persist across the northern
Plains into the Great Lakes on Saturday, as the main upper wave
rotates northeast from Ontario into Quebec. The southern periphery
of this stronger flow aloft will remain over the middle to lower MO
Valley, with a warm front developing across NE and IA. Strong
heating will occur east of a surface low either in western NE or KS,
with south winds resulting in a deep mixed layer by afternoon.

Storms are expected to form over NE, and possibly move into IA or MO
through evening in the form of an MCS. This would be fueled by a
strengthening southerly low-level jet as well, suggesting an
organized system may occur. For now, low probabilities have been
added due to uncertainty with placement of any such corridor.
Damaging winds would be the main concern.

...Mid Atlantic...
Scattered afternoon storms will again be likely over much of the
eastern states on Saturday, within a modest southwest flow regime. A
high PW environment will remain in place, supporting an uncapped air
mass and conditional/localized wind risk. Predictability is low at
this time given possible antecedent rain or thunderstorm areas, but
low probabilities for wind could be added in later updates.

..Jewell.. 08/06/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS03 KWNS 070723
SWODY3
SPC AC 070723

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Fri Aug 07 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible Sunday afternoon and evening from parts of the central and
northern Plains east-southeastward into the southern Great Lakes
region.

...Central and Northern Plains/Mid Missouri Valley/Southern Great
Lakes...
At the surface, a cold front will advance southward into the
north-central states on Sunday, being positioned from South Dakota
eastward into Wisconsin by afternoon. Surface dewpoints near and to
the south of the front will be in the 60s and 70s F, which will
contribute to the development of moderate instability. Large-scale
ascent over this unstable airmass will remain relatively weak. In
spite of this, isolated thunderstorms are expected to form in areas
where low-level convergence becomes maximized. Model forecasts
suggest that the most favorable locations could be near the front in
South Dakota and from northeastern Nebraska into southern Iowa along
the northern edge of the stronger low-level flow. In both of these
locations, moderate to strong instability coupled with moderate
deep-layer shear should be sufficient for a severe threat. Severe
wind gusts will be the most likely hazard during the late afternoon
and early evening with cell clusters or short line segments that
move southeastward along and near the instability axis. Hail could
also occur mainly in the central and northern Plains, where
mid-level lapse rates will be steepest.

..Broyles.. 08/07/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)