• ARRL Propagation Bulletin

    From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Mar 5 17:40:25 2021
    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP010
    ARLP010 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP10
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 10 ARLP010
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA March 5, 2021
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP010
    ARLP010 Propagation de K7RA

    We saw one day (Monday) with no sunspots during this week, so
    average daily sunspot numbers declined slightly from 19.6 to 18.9.
    Two new sunspot groups (2806 and 2807) appeared on the following
    day.

    Average daily solar flux remained about the same, increasing
    slightly during the reporting week (February 25 through March 3)
    from 75.7 to 76.7.

    Average daily planetary A index softened slightly from 16 to 14.7,
    and the middle latitude average went from 12.4 to 10.4. Geomagnetic
    indicators remained somewhat active due to persistent solar wind.
    The most active day was Monday, when Alaska's High Latitude College
    A index reached 34.

    Spaceweather.com reported a G2 class geomagnetic storm on Monday,
    aided by a significant crack in Earth's magnetic field. Although
    activity was otherwise moderate this week, the March 1 event was the
    largest storm since a G3 event 94 weeks earlier, on May 14, 2019.

    Predicted solar flux for the next 30 days is 80 on March 5, 78 on
    March 6, 78 on March 7-9, 72 on March 10-11, then 71, 72, 70, 71, 72
    and 71 on March 12-17, then 73, 76, 75, 76, 78 and 81 on March
    18-23, then 80 on March 24 and 25, then 79, 78 and 73 on March
    26-28, 74 on March 29-30, 73 on March 31 through April 1, and 74 on
    April 2-3.

    Predicted planetary A index is 10, 20 and 15 on March 5-7, 10 on
    March 8-9, then 8, 5, 15, 10 and 5 on March 10-14, then 15, 8, 5 and
    18 on March 15-18, 20 on March 19-20, then 18, 12, and 8 on March
    21-23, 5 on March 24-27, then 20, 15 and 10 on March 28-30, 5 on
    March 31 and April 1, then 12 on April 2, and 5 on April 3-7.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period March 5-30, 2021 from
    OK1HH.

    "Geomagnetic field will be,
    quiet on: March 9-10, 14, (26-27)
    quiet to unsettled on: March 5, 16-17, 25
    quiet to active on: March 7-8, 11, 13, 15, 20-24
    unsettled to active: March 12, 29
    active to disturbed: March 6, 18-19, 28, 30

    "Solar wind will intensify on: March (5-9, 12-14, 16-22, 27,) 28-29.

    "Remarks:
    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
    - Predictability of changes remains low."

    W6MVT reports a surprising 10 meter opening to South America on the
    same Tuesday when sunspots re-appeared.

    "It never hurts to turn on 10 meters or check the spots on DXMaps or
    your favorite spotter. I saw some action and was pleased I was at
    the radio. On March 2 around 2130 UTC 10 meter SSB was alive with
    South American stations and a good path to those of us in Southern
    California. With 100w and a rotatable dipole only up 20 feet I was
    able to log LU4DJB, PU2LUC, PY2EX, PY5QW, PU2SDX and PY4NY in rapid
    succession, all with good reports both ways. Things faded out around
    2200 UTC, but I was glad I caught it. W6MVT."

    Larry, K8MU sent this article concerning a space plasma hurricane:

    https://phys.org/news/2021-03-space-hurricane.html

    Don't miss Larry's page on QRZ.com, showing lines and arrows with
    humorous text about his modest station, complete with steerable
    ground plane and incoming QSL receptacle.

    This is from an email exchange with Frank Donovan, W3LPL regarding
    "Total Sunspot Area" which is shown daily along with SFI and SSN
    (Sunspot Number) in this table:

    ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/DSD.txt

    (SFI is 10.7 cm solar flux, uHem (micro-Hem) is solar
    micro-hemispheres, and EUV is extreme ultra-violet radiation.)

    "Here are some additional insights regarding total sunspot area.

    "SFI and total sunspot area are well correlated with each other and
    with EUV flux at the wavelengths that ionize the F2 region.

    "Daily sunspot number is not well correlated because tiny sunspots
    greatly affect it but they have no effect on HF propagation. I
    usually ignore daily sunspot numbers unless total micro-Hem exceeds
    200.

    "Today is a classic case with daily SISLO sunspot number of 30 but
    total sunspot area is under 100 micro-Hem and SFI is stuck at 75.

    "Roughly 100 micro-Hem elevates the SFI into the mid 70s, but has
    only a minor effect on HF propagation.

    "200 micro-Hem roughly corresponds to SFI of 80 and usually improves
    17 and 15 meter propagation. But the normal daily variability of F2
    MUFs is not well correlated to SFIs of about 80 and often swamps out
    the expected improvements from SFI of 80.

    "HF MUFs increase more consistently when the SFI approaches 90. You
    may recall active region 12786 area was as high as 1000 micro-Hem
    last November and the SFI was above 100 for nine days. It greatly
    improved 15 meter propagation during the CQWW CW DX Contest and
    there was significant 10 meter DX propagation too. Daily sunspot
    number varied wildly from 40 to 94 during this period mostly because
    there were also three smaller active regions at during the period
    when 12786 was by far the most significant contributor to SFI
    greater than 100.

    "The rough equivalencies are:

    "uHem SFI
    100 75
    200 80
    400 90
    600 100
    800 110
    1000 120
    1200 130
    1400 140
    1500 150
    1600 160
    1800 170
    2000 180"

    This weekend is the ARRL International SSB DX Contest. See http://www.arrl.org/arrl-dx for details.

    NASA video of solar flare from Science Times:

    https://bit.ly/3re3WP7

    A recent video forecast from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/j1rSS9iVsK4

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
    please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net .

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service web page at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
    an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for February 25 through March 3, 2021 were 31, 16,
    14, 13, 0, 28, and 30, with a mean of 18.9. 10.7 cm flux was 80.1,
    80.1, 79.2, 77.7, 71, 74.7, and 74.2, with a mean of 76.7. Estimated
    planetary A indices were 13, 11, 4, 6, 26, 20, and 23, with a mean
    of 14.7. Middle latitude A index was 13, 8, 3, 4, 16, 14, and 15,
    with a mean of 10.4.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.13-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - tbolt.synchro.net (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Mar 12 17:56:10 2021
    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP011
    ARLP011 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP11
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 11 ARLP011
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA March 12, 2021
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP011
    ARLP011 Propagation de K7RA

    Although solar activity remains low, lately as a sunspot rotates to
    the west off the visible solar disc a new one emerges in the east.
    Sunspot group 2807 recently moved over the Sun's western horizon,
    but on March 9 new sunspot group 2808 moved across the eastern
    horizon, and a newer group (2809) has now emerged just south of the
    center of the solar disc. This brought the daily sunspot number
    higher from 11 on Wednesday to 23 on Thursday, March 11.

    Recent sunspot activity and solar flux still seem soft when compared
    to activity toward the end of 2020.

    In Propagation Forecast Bulletins ARLP048, 049, and 050 in 2020,
    (covering November 19 through December 9), average sunspot numbers
    were 27.9, 57.6 and 28.9 and average daily solar flux was 90.1,
    108.1 and 91.9. For the past three weeks overall average daily
    sunspot numbers were 19 (the two weeks prior to that had no
    sunspots) and average daily solar flux was 77.1.

    We can't do anything except to wait and watch, but we can look
    forward to the Vernal Equinox next week on Saturday, March 20. Like
    the Autumnal Equinox in the Fall, this is always a positive
    influence on HF propagation when the northern and southern
    hemispheres are bathed in approximately equal amounts of solar
    radiation. You can count on it.

    Average daily sunspot numbers this week hardly changed, from 18.9
    last week to 18.4.

    Average daily solar flux shifted marginally higher from 76.7 to
    78.9.

    Solar wind has slackened, so average daily planetary A index went
    from 14.7 to 7.6, and the middle latitude numbers changed from 10.4
    to 6.1.

    Predicted solar flux for the next 30 days is 78 on March 12-19, then
    75, 76, 78 and 81 on March 20-23, 80 on March 24-25, then 78 and 76
    on March 26-27, then 75 on March 28 through April 1, then 78 on
    April 2-3, and 70, 74, 76, 72, 71, 72 and 70 on April 4-10. After
    April 18, solar flux may rise again above 80, then back to 75 by
    April 24.

    Predicted planetary A index is 12, 20 and 10 on March 12-14, 5 on
    March 15-17, 12 on March 18-19, then 20, 18, 12 and 8 on March
    20-23, 5 on March 24-27, then 25, 20, 20 and 10 on March 28-31, then
    5, 15 and 8 on April 1-3, 5 on April 4-7, then 18, 12, 5 and 15 on
    April 8-11. A recurring coronal hole may rotate into a geo-effective
    position on April 15-16 and another around April 24-25, raising the
    planetary A index again to around 20-25.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period March 12 to April 6,
    2021 from F.K Janda, OK1HH.

    "Geomagnetic field will be:
    quiet on: March 17, (26-27,) April 1, 6
    quiet to unsettled on: March 12-13, 16, 25, April 3-5
    quiet to active on: March 21-24, 31
    unsettled to active: March 14-15, 18, 29 April 2
    active to disturbed: March 19-20, 28, 30

    "Solar wind will intensify on: March (12-14, 18-19,) 20-23, (27,)
    28-31, April (1-2).

    "Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
    Predictability of changes remains very low, as there are ambiguous indications."

    Dennis, K7BV, reported:

    "March 7, while checking the bands for DX, I went to 15m FT8 about
    1650z. The strongest signal by a huge margin was S79KW (LI75rj
    Seychelles) at +27 dB! After a quick contact, I moved to a clear
    frequency to CQ. Almost immediately 4S6RSP at -8 dB strong called.
    A few minutes later VU2AMW at -1 dB called. I also noticed YC5YZ
    calling CQ. Nothing else heard from the region but S79KW remained
    strong well after this brief 15 meters opening to Southern and
    Southeast Asia."

    Unfortunately the averages at the end of this bulletin sometimes
    change from the preview in Thursday's ARRL Letter. This is my fault
    and happens from time to time. Thanks so much to Don Wright, AA2F,
    who catches these every time, and makes sure the correct averages
    appear in Friday's bulletin.

    Aurora season in Colorado:

    https://bit.ly/3esaFkV

    David Moore sent this from Science News: "The aurora's very high
    altitude booster."

    https://bit.ly/3rGk2RS

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
    please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net .

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
    an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for March 4 through 10, 2021 were 32, 14, 23, 14,
    12, 23, and 11, with a mean of 18.4. 10.7 cm flux was 81.4, 73.2,
    77, 77.5, 79.9, 83.7, and 79.4, with a mean of 78.9. Estimated
    planetary A indices were 11, 5, 16, 10, 6, 3, and 2, with a mean of
    7.6. Middle latitude A index was 11, 5, 11, 7, 5, 2, and 2, with a
    mean of 6.1.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.13-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - tbolt.synchro.net (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Mar 19 22:24:27 2021
    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP012
    ARLP012 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP12
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 12 ARLP012
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA March 19, 2021
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP012
    ARLP012 Propagation de K7RA

    Average daily sunspot numbers this week rose just a little, from
    18.4 to 19, and average daily solar flux changed from 78.9 to 78.1.
    Solar activity remains low.

    Note the vernal equinox, (the first day of spring in the Northern
    Hemisphere) occurs at 0937 UTC on Saturday, March 20. Both the
    Southern and Northern hemispheres will be bathed in approximately
    equal amounts of solar radiation, which has a positive effect of HF propagation.

    On March 17 and 18, the daily sunspot number was only 12 on both
    days, but the total sunspot area rose from 50 to 200
    micro-hemispheres. Sunspot area was last at this level on February
    25. You can see daily sunspot area along with sunspot numbers and
    solar flux at ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/DSD.txt .

    Average daily planetary A index rose from 7.6 to 10.3, and average
    daily middle-latitude A index increased from 6.1 to 7.3. Solar wind
    on March 14 drove the planetary A index to 25, and Alaska's College
    A index was 37.

    On Wednesday March 17 Spaceweather.com warned that minor geomagnetic
    unrest is expected on March 18, due to a co-rotating interactive
    region that will disturb our magnetic field. "CIRs are transition
    zones between fast and slow-moving solar wind streams. Plasma piles
    up in these regions, creating shock-like density gradients that
    often do a good job sparking auroras."

    On March 18 Spaceweather.com reported, "NOAA forecasters say that a
    minor G1-class geomagnetic storm is likely on March 20 and 21 when a
    stream of high-speed solar wind hits Earth's magnetic field. The
    gaseous material is flowing faster than 600 km/s from a southern
    hole in the sun's atmosphere."

    The latest forecast from the US Air Force Space Weather Squadron
    predicts solar flux at 72 on March 19 to 21, 70 on March 22 to 26,
    76 on March 27, 75 on March 28 through April 1, 78 on April 2 and 3,
    then 70, 74, 76 and 72 on April 4 to 7, 71, 72 and 70 on April 8 to
    10, 71, 72 and 71 on April 11 to 13, then 73, 76, 75 and 76 on April
    14 to 16. Solar flux is expected to hit a high of 81 on April 19.

    Predicted planetary A index is 12, 24, 20, 15, 12, 8 and 10 on March
    19 to 25, 5 on March 26 to 27, 25 on March 28, 20 on March 29 to 30,
    then 10, 5, 15 and 8 on March 31 through April 3, 5 on April 4 to 7,
    then 15, 18, 20, and 15 on April 8 to 11, then 8, 5 and 8 on April
    12 to 14, and 20 on April 15 and 16 and 18 on April 17. The A index
    may peak at 25 again on April 24.

    More about the Air Force and space weather: https://bit.ly/30Zrzzv

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period March 19 to April 13,
    2021 from F. K. Janda, OK1HH.

    "Geomagnetic field will be
    Quiet on: March (27,) April 1, 4, 6, 12
    Quiet to unsettled on: March 25 and 26, April 3, 5, 7
    Quiet to active on: March 22 to 24, 31, April 13
    Unsettled to active: March 21, April 2, 8 and 9, 11
    Active to disturbed: March (19 and 20,) 28 to 30, April 10

    Solar wind will intensify on: March (19,) 20 to 22, (23, 27,) 28
    and 29, (30, April 1 and 2, (3 to 5, 8,) 9 and 10, (11)

    Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
    Predictability of changes remains very low, as indicators remain
    ambiguous."

    At 2358 UTC on March 17 Australia's Space Weather Services sent this
    alert:

    "A large Southern Polar coronal hole with low latitude extensions
    will become geoeffective with the CIR possibly arriving from late on
    UT day 19 March, causing unsettled to active conditions. The HSS
    from the coronal hole is expected to follow on UT day 20 March,
    causing active conditions with the possibility of a G1 minor storm.
    Active conditions are expected to continue on 21 March, Auroras may
    be visible from Tasmania at night on 19-20 March."

    Dave Bono, K6OAK in Fremont, California reports:

    "On Monday March 15th just before 1900 UTC 6 and 10 meters were
    dead, but I noticed a few signals on 12M FT8, one being a fairly
    strong signal from VP8NO in the Falklands. After a few attempts I
    was able to make contact and received a respectable -10 report. I
    was running 50 watts into a ground mounted vertical antenna. Not
    bad for a few minutes in the shack."

    Mike, KA3JAW in Easton, PA (FN20jq) reports six meter activity:

    On March 13 at 1627 UTC six meter sporadic-e began to appear on FT8
    50.313 MHz with stations from the central states of IL, MO, KY, NE,
    IA and KS for over 3.5 hours from the first Es cloud formation.

    1659 UTC heard VO1SIX in Newfoundland, Canada (GN27jd) at 1090 miles
    coming in from 065 degrees azimuth from a second Es cloud formation.

    1830 UTC Es starts to spread out directly west into the central
    states of NE, IA and KS.

    The farthest distance came from KQ0P (EM19wf) at 1109 miles, 271
    degrees azimuth with a signal of -6 dB while the radio power output
    was 15 watts using a half wave dipole at 6 feet above ground.

    Remembering the 1989 Quebec event:

    https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019SW002278

    This article on solar activity has some interesting links:

    https://bit.ly/3s2BksC

    Historic sunspot activity going way, way back:

    https://bit.ly/2QjJyP4

    VA7JW gives an overview of the Dominion Radio Astrophysical
    Observatory at Penticton which supplies us with solar flux data:

    http://archive.nsarc.ca/hf/drao_solar.pdf

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for March 11 through 17, 2021 were 23, 15, 12, 24,
    24, 23, and 12, with a mean of 19. 10.7 cm flux was 78.2, 76.9,
    81.1, 78, 74.8, 79.2, and 78.2, with a mean of 78.1. Estimated
    planetary A indices were 4, 12, 17, 25, 7, 4, and 3, with a mean of
    10.3. Middle latitude A index was 3, 9, 13, 17, 5, 2, and 2, with a
    mean of 7.3.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.13-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - tbolt.synchro.net (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Mar 26 10:50:55 2021
    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP013
    ARLP013 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP13
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 13 ARLP013
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA March 26, 2021
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP013
    ARLP013 Propagation de K7RA

    On March 21 and 22 two new sunspot groups, 2811 and 2812 appeared.
    Average daily sunspot number this week faded a bit from 19 to 17.9,
    but average daily solar flux went from 78.1 to 78.6. Neither change
    is significant.

    We haven't seen a day with no sunspots since March 1, so that brings
    the percentage of spotless days so far this year to 38%, down from
    57% last year and 77% in 2019.

    Geomagnetic activity was steady throughout this week, with average
    daily planetary A index rising from 10.3 to 13.3, and average middle
    latitude A index from 7.3 to 10.4.

    But geomagnetic conditions were disturbed at higher latitudes.
    Alaska's College A index, measured near Fairbanks, was 40 and 45 on
    March 20-21. This was reflected in a report from N6QEK/KL7 in North
    Pole, Alaska (a town southeast of Fairbanks, not at the north pole)
    who wrote, "HF frequencies here in the interior of Alaska were wiped
    out for the BARTG RTTY contest. FT-8 signals were almost
    non-existent as well."

    Saturday was the first day of Spring in the Northern Hemisphere, and
    Autumn in the Southern Hemisphere, positive indications for HF
    propagation.

    Predicted solar flux over the next month is 80 on March 26-27, 75 on
    March 28-31, then 70 on April 1-2, 80 and 81 on April 3-4, 82 on
    April 5-7, 81 on April 8, 80 on April 9-10, then 78 and 76 on April
    11-12, 75 on April 13-14, 76 on April 15, 77 on April 16-17, 76 on
    April 18-20, 77 on April 21, and 78 on April 22-28. Solar flux is
    expected to peak at 82 on May 2-4.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8 on March 26, 5 on March 27, 25 on
    March 28, 20 on March 29-30, then 12 on March 31, then 8 on April
    1-3, 5 on April 4-7, then 15, 18 and 20 on April 8-10, 5 on April
    11-15, then 25, 22, 20, 15 and 8 on April 16-20, and 5 on April
    21-23, then 25 on April 24 and 20 on April 25-26.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period March 26 to April 20,
    2021 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    "Geomagnetic field will be:
    quiet on: April 1, 6-7, 12-13
    quiet to unsettled on: March 26-27, 31, April 5, 14, 18
    quiet to active on: April 2-4, 15, 20
    unsettled to active: March 29, April 8, 11, 19
    active to disturbed: March 28, 30, April 9-10, 16-17

    "Solar wind will intensify on: March (28,) 29-30, (31,) April 2-3,
    (4-6, 8-9,) 10-11, (12, 16-17,) 18-19, (20).

    "Remarks:
    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
    - Predictability of changes remains very low, as there are irregular
    and ambiguous indications."

    Jon Jones, N0JK, wrote on March 22:

    "More on the March 13, 2021 sporadic-E opening. The month of March
    has the LOWEST occurrence of sporadic-E propagation of any month of
    the year. Thus, I consider any sporadic-E on 6 Meters in March
    noteworthy.

    "There was some afternoon TEP (trans-equatorial propagation) on 6
    meters between Florida and South America March 21. Stations such as
    W4AS, KD4ESV, KV4HV, in Florida worked CX and LU stations around
    2100z. K0GU (DN70) in Colorado spotted LU9FVS, perhaps a sporadic-E
    to TEP link. The K index was 5, indicating 'storm' geomagnetic field conditions."

    This article mentions solar cycle predictions, and they mentioned
    predicted "peak rates of more than 200 sunspots at a time." But
    they may have made a common error, confusing the daily sunspot
    number with the actual number of sunspots, two very different
    numbers (as can be seen here):

    https://stardate.org/radio/program/2021-03-22

    To review, to calculate the sunspot number, we count a value of 10
    for each sunspot group, then add a value of one for each sunspot
    within those groups.

    I noticed something strange about the NOAA SESC reported solar flux
    of 79 on March 23. They get the solar flux values from the
    Penticton, British Columbia Dominion Radio Astrophysical Observatory
    noon reading, which is also my source (see https://bit.ly/3vZSz02 ).
    NOAA rounds off these values to the nearest whole number, which
    should have been 82.

    Now that it is March 2021, I will pause to reflect. The FCC issued
    my Novice license (WN7CSK) on March 23, 1965 when I was 12 years
    old. When the ticket finally arrived, I was very, very excited.

    I asked my mother to hang her bright red sweater in the dining room
    window when any envelope from the FCC arrived so I could see it from
    my school bus. When I saw mom's sweater, I leaped from my seat, and
    ran to the front of the bus, whooping and hollering. This only
    confirmed for my schoolmates what they already knew, that I really
    was crazy. Fifty-six years later, this vivid memory lingers.

    It was 30 years ago (this week?) that I began writing this bulletin
    when there was a sudden increase in solar flux that I felt was
    noteworthy. But ARRL had just announced in an ARRL bulletin that Ed
    Tilton, W1HDQ who authored this propagation bulletin was ill, so it
    was suspended for the time being.

    I fell into writing the bulletin when I called ARRL HQ because I
    thought they should put out a bulletin with this solar news. The man
    I spoke with wondered who might write this, so I offered. Then the
    next week they asked for another bulletin.

    I also called W1HDQ, who at that time was living in Florida. His
    wife answered the phone, but said he was too ill to talk on the
    phone. She asked what I was calling about, and when I told her the
    solar flux value, she replied, "Oh he'll want to hear about this!"
    and I spoke with Ed briefly, who seemed excited by the news.

    Unfortunately, W1HDQ never recovered, so I kept writing the ARRL
    Propagation Bulletin. I have since been unable to learn when he
    began writing it. I recall copying the bulletin from W1AW on 20
    meter CW in 1966, but before that? Nobody seems to know. I wish I
    had asked Ed about this when we spoke.

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
    please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net .

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
    an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for March 18 through 24, 2021 were 12, 14, 12, 12,
    23, 26, and 26, with a mean of 17.9. 10.7 cm flux was 73.4, 73.5,
    80.3, 77.1, 80.4, 81.8, and 83.6, with a mean of 78.6. Estimated
    planetary A indices were 4, 6, 29, 24, 8, 11, and 11, with a mean of
    13.3. Middle latitude A index was 4, 6, 20, 17, 6, 9, and 11, with a
    mean of 10.4.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.13-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - tbolt.synchro.net (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Apr 2 16:02:22 2021
    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP014
    ARLP014 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP14
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 14 ARLP014
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA April 2, 2021
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP014
    ARLP014 Propagation de K7RA

    Average daily sunspot numbers declined this week from 17.9 to 11.9.
    Why? Because on the final two days of the March 25-31 reporting week
    sunspots disappeared. That's right. We're back to the blank Sun
    again, unfortunately.

    Spaceweather.com reported on Wednesday that we may soon see a
    potential sunspot currently on the far side of our Sun. They
    presented this image:

    https://bit.ly/39vq54y

    Average daily solar flux dropped from 78.6 to 77.4. Geomagnetic
    indicators softened as well, with average daily planetary A index
    declining from 13.3 to 8.9, and middle latitude A index from 10.4 to
    7.7.

    Predicted solar flux over the next month does not look promising,
    with values way down in the seventies, although this forecast
    improved some over the past couple of days. Expect 10.7 cm flux at
    73 on April 2-3, 71 on April 4-9, 73 on April 10-13, 74 on April
    14-16, 76 on April 17-24, 75 on April 25-27, then 74 and 73 April
    28-29, and 72 on April 30 through May 5.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on April 2-5, 8 on April 6-7, then
    5, 10 and 20 on April 8-10, then 5 on April 11-15, then 20 and 18 on
    April 16-17, 8 on April 18-19, 5 on April 20-21, 8 on April 22-24,
    12 on April 25, 8 on April 26-27, 5 on April 28-30, then 8 on May
    1-2, 5 on May 3-4 and 12 on May 5-7.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period April 2 to 27, 2021
    from OK1HH.

    "Geomagnetic field will be:
    quiet on: April 12-13, 24-26
    quiet to unsettled on: April 5, 14, 23
    quiet to active on: April (2-7, 15, 20-22, 27)
    unsettled to active: April (8, 11, 18-19)
    active to disturbed: April (9-10,) 16-17

    "Solar wind will intensify on: April 3, (4-5, 8-9,) 10-11, (12,
    16-17,) 18, (19-22, 27).

    "Remarks:
    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
    - Predictability of changes remains very low, as there are ambiguous
    and quickly changing indications."

    Here is an article from "The Irish Times" about space weather and
    the sinking of the Titanic:

    https://bit.ly/3fB9joK

    NN4X reported a 15 meter long path opening to Asia: "Nice opening to
    Asia here in Central Florida on the morning of 4/1/2021.

    "On FT8, I worked BA7LP, YD7ACD, BG7PHA, and VR2VLY, and heard 9V1PL
    and BD7LMA.

    "It was very concentrated - note no JA/HL/DU. Typically, I've been
    seeing more YBs than anything on 15M LP, but certainly not today.

    "Anyway, it's all great fun, and I thought I'd pass it along!"

    Many years ago we reported in this bulletin results JQ2UOZ was
    getting running 1/2 watt using simple wire antennas on his apartment
    balcony. Check out his blog:

    https://jq2uoz.blogspot.com

    Another blast from the past on flares and CMEs:

    https://bit.ly/2QP6c1R

    An article in "The Conversation" about predicting space weather:

    https://bit.ly/2PrlTMt

    An article about why we are still hearing about that Carrington
    Event - even after all these years - can be found here:

    https://bit.ly/3uimA9Q

    AL7LO has a collection of his favorite ARRL Propagation Forecast
    Bulletins, and he shared this one recently from 8 years ago:

    http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLP001/2013

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
    please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net .

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
    an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for March 25 through 31, 2021 were 24, 24, 11, 11,
    13, 0, and 0, with a mean of 11.9. 10.7 cm flux was 78.8, 79.6,
    80.4, 75.1, 74.4, 79.5, and 73.8, with a mean of 77.4. Estimated
    planetary A indices were 18, 12, 9, 6, 4, 3, and 10, with a mean of
    8.9. Middle latitude A index was 18, 11, 7, 4, 3, 4, and 7, with a
    mean of 7.7.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - tbolt.synchro.net (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Apr 9 20:11:55 2021
    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP015
    ARLP015 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP15
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 15 ARLP015
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA April 9, 2021
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP015
    ARLP015 Propagation de K7RA

    Sunspots were only visible on four days over the current reporting
    week, on April 3-6. And now on Friday morning there are still no
    sunspots.

    As a result, average daily sunspot number declined from 11.9 last
    week to 6.4 currently. Average daily solar flux also dropped from
    77.4 to 73.4. On Thursday the daily solar flux was 74, just above
    the average for the previous seven days, 73.4. The Sun remained
    blank.

    Average daily planetary A index declined from 8.9 to 6.6, and
    average mid-latitude A index slipped from 7.7 to 5.6.

    Predicted solar flux for the next month is 74 on April 9-15, 72 on
    April 16-20, 74 on April 21-26, 73 on April 27 through May 1, 72 on
    May 2-5, 70 on May 6-10, and 71 on May 11-12. 74 is not a high 10.7
    cm flux value, but it should be there on May 18 and beyond.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5, 10 and 8 on April 9-11, 5 on April
    12-13, then 8 on April 14-15, 15 and 18 on April 16-17, 8 on April
    18-19, 5 on April 20-21, 8 on April 22-24, 5 on April 25 through May
    1, 8 on May 2-4, and 5 on May 5-12.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period April 9 to May 4, 2021
    from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

    "Geomagnetic field will be,
    quiet on: April 25, May 1-3
    quiet to unsettled on: April 18, 20, 22, 26, 28-30
    quiet to active on: April 19, 23-24, 27
    unsettled to active: April (9-11,) 17, 21-22
    active to disturbed: April 16, May 4

    "Solar wind will intensify on: April (9-11, 16,) 18-19, (21-22, then irregularly between April 23-May 1,) May 3-4.

    "Remarks:
    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
    - Predictability of changes remains very low, as there
    are a lack of indications and contradictions between them."

    Des, ND3L wrote: "I was off the air for 28 years. Got back on a year
    ago. I'm in the process of inputting my old logs into QRZ.COM
    logbook. Back in 1989 I had a stretch of 11 pages of all 10 meter
    contacts with 25 contacts per page! Found 5 new countries that I
    never had confirmed. Operators were still around and had old logs
    and confirmed. Took me from 284 to 289 confirmed in 1 week!

    "In early 1989 daily sunspot numbers ranged from 134 to 161. We
    didn't know we had it so good!"

    Ken Brown, N4SO on Alabama's Gulf Coast reports on 17 meter FT8 on
    March 28, he worked ZD8HZ on Ascension Island at 2117 UTC, over a
    distance of 5,509 miles.

    Later from 2207-2345 UTC he worked "JA5AQC, JR7VHZ, JG1SRB, JR1FYS,
    JR7TEQ, JL1UXH, JA2KVD, JA1JAN, JA0MRW, JA3FQO, JA3PCQ, JO1LVZ,
    JA3APV, JA2QXP, and on the 29th and 30th worked a total of ten more
    Japanese, some call signs repeated from the 28th."

    WB8VLC in Salem, Oregon is seeing consistent 10 meter activity,
    which is a nice surprise considering the very low solar activity and
    probably too early in the year for e-skip.

    He reported: "As usual 10 meters has been open here in NW Oregon
    pretty much every week to South America, but the interesting
    openings were 2 weekends in March when E51JD in Rarotonga South Cook
    Islands has been in on 10 meter SSB along with KH6ZM on RTTY and the
    usual South Americans." (KH6ZM is on the Hawaii Big Island).

    JQ2UOZ wrote:

    "Hi, Tad-san, K7RA. Thank you very much for mentioning me in the
    latest bulletin.

    "By the way, I have found a very interesting article about the solar
    cycle: 'Gradual onset of the Maunder Minimum revealed by
    high-precision carbon-14 analyses.' Scientific Reports volume 11,
    Article number: 5482 (2021):
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-84830-5 ."

    The author describes in the Abstract, "Here we show that the 11-year
    solar cycles were significantly lengthened before the onset of the
    Maunder Minimum (1645-1715 CE) based on unprecedentedly
    high-precision data of carbon-14 content in tree rings. It implies
    that flow speed in the convection zone is an essential parameter to
    determine long-term solar activity variations. We find that a 16
    year-long cycle had occurred three solar cycles before the onset of
    prolonged sunspot disappearance, suggesting a longer-than-expected
    preparatory period for the grand minimum. As the Sun has shown a
    tendency of cycle lengthening since Solar Cycle 23 (1996-2008 CE),
    the behavior of Solar Cycle 25 can be critically important to the
    later solar activity. I hope to have active Solar Cycle 25."

    Some of you may find this article interesting:

    https://bit.ly/3uzqFWZ

    A recent video update from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/pwRcJ-YcVzk

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
    please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net .

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
    an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for April 1 through 7, 2021 were 0, 0, 12, 11, 11,
    11, and 0, with a mean of 6.4. 10.7 cm flux was 77.9, 72.1, 72.8,
    70, 71.9, 73.6, and 75.7, with a mean of 73.4. Estimated planetary A
    indices were 8, 6, 4, 3, 5, 3, and 17, with a mean of 6.6 Middle
    latitude A index was 8, 4, 2, 2, 5, 3, and 15, with a mean of 5.6.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - tbolt.synchro.net (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Apr 16 14:25:54 2021
    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP016
    ARLP016 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP16
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 16 ARLP016
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA April 16, 2021
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP016
    ARLP016 Propagation de K7RA

    On April 12 new sunspot group AR2814 appeared following five days of
    no sunspots at all. Daily sunspot numbers on the following four days
    were 16, 16, 17 and 22 bringing the average daily sunspot number for
    this reporting week (April 8-14) to 7, from 6.4 last week. The April
    15 sunspot number of 22 was not included in this average. So far in
    2021, 39% of the days had no sunspots.

    Geomagnetic indicators were quiet, with average daily planetary A
    index declining slightly from 6.6 to 5.1. Likewise, middle latitude
    A index changed from 5.6 to 4.1.

    On April 14 Spaceweather.com reported a high speed stream of solar
    wind from a hole in the Sun's southern hemisphere. This could
    produce a minor geomagnetic storm on April 17.

    At 2338 UTC on April 14 and again at 0239 UTC on April 16, the
    Australian Space Forecast Centre issued a Geomagnetic Disturbance
    Warning: Geomagnetic activity is expected to increase to Active
    levels with a chance of an isolated minor storm period from late 16
    April due to coronal hole effects. The April 16 warning said to
    expect the effects to continue through Sunday, April 18.

    Predicted solar flux is 74 on April 16-19, 72 on April 20-21, 70 on
    April 22-23, 75 on April 24 through May 8, and 72 on May 9-17, and
    75 on May 18 through the end of the month.

    Predicted planetary A index is 18, 20 and 16 on April 16-18, then
    12, 8, 5 and 10 on April 19-22, 8 on April 23-24, 5 on April 25-26,
    then 10 and 8 on April 27-28, 5 on April 29 through May 3, 15 on May
    4, 5 on May 5-7, 8 on May 8, 5 on May 9-10, 8 on May 11-12, 5 on May
    13, 20 on May 14, 8 on May 15-16 and 5 on May 17-18.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period April 16 to May 11,
    2021 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH, who has compiled this weekly bulletin
    since January 1978.

    "Geomagnetic field will be
    quiet on: April 25, May 1-3, 5
    quiet to unsettled on: April 26, 28-30, May 6-11
    quiet to active on: April 19-20, 23-24
    unsettled to active: April 21-22, 27
    active to disturbed: April 16-17, (18,) May 4

    "Solar wind will intensify on: April (16-17,) 18-19, (21-22, then
    irregularly between April 23-May 1,) May 3-5, (6-7, 10-11).

    "Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement."

    Jon Jones, N0JK reported on April 15: "Stations in New England
    spotted CE2SV and CE3SX FF46 on 50.313 MHz FT8 ~ 2200z April 13.
    Likely a sporadic-E link to TEP.

    "AC4TO EM70 Florida reported 18 DX contacts in 10 DXCC countries
    April 13. Solar flux was up at 83."

    Steve Sacco, NN4X reported:

    "Here in Florida, we saw late-afternoon opening into Europe on both
    10M and 12M.

    "Looking west on 10M FT8, I noticed ZL3IO completing a QSO with
    CT1ENI, and then calling EA5RW. Note that it's the middle of the
    night in EU at 2034Z!"

    Don't miss this truly remarkable presentation by Frank Donovan,
    W3LPL to the Central Arizona DX Association on "HF Ionospheric
    Propagation":

    https://youtu.be/4-pBa3Eyxsk

    "Universe Today" has an article on Galileo sunspot drawings and an
    application of artificial intelligence:

    https://bit.ly/3dZHGmw

    Here is the April 14 report and forecast from Dr. Tamitha Skov,
    WX6SWW.

    https://youtu.be/Tti4AZUa458

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
    please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net .

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for April 8 through 14, 2021 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 16,
    16, and 17, with a mean of 7. 10.7 cm flux was 74, 77.8, 70.4, 72.9,
    82.8, 72.8, and 74.4, with a mean of 75. Estimated planetary A
    indices were 5, 3, 5, 6, 5, 5, and 7, with a mean of 5.1. Middle
    latitude A index was 3, 2, 3, 5, 4, 5, and 7, with a mean of 4.1.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - tbolt.synchro.net (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri May 14 20:27:44 2021
    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP020
    ARLP020 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP20
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 20 ARLP020
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA May 14, 2021
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP020
    ARLP020 Propagation de K7RA

    Sunspot activity returned last Friday, and has held steady since.
    Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 11.9 to 21.1, and average
    daily solar flux was up 2.1 points to 74.3 for the reporting week
    ending May 12.

    Geomagnetic activity was quiet until Wednesday when the planetary A
    index went to 41, as the result of a CME that blasted out of the Sun
    on May 9. It was not expected to be very strong, but when it struck
    on May 12 it sparked a G3 class geomagnetic storm, the strongest in
    the current solar cycle.

    The planetary A index rose to 41, far above an average of 3.8 on the
    previous six days. The average daily planetary A index for the week
    (May 6-12) was 9.1 and average middle-latitude A index was 7.4.

    Predicted solar flux over the next month is 75 on May 14-19, 70 on
    May 20-21, then 72, 80, and 79 on May 22-24, then 78, 77 and 73 on
    May 25-27, 72 on May 28-30, 70 on May 31 and June 1, 71 and 75 on
    June 2-3, 76 on June 4-5, 74 on June 6-7, 75 on June 8-9, 77 on June
    10, and 79 on June 11-13.

    Note in the 45-day forecast that solar flux of 84 predicted for June
    15 seems to be an outlier:

    ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/051345DF.txt

    Odd that predicted solar flux would shift from 78 to 84 to 77. But
    we saw a similar prediction recently for that same value a week into
    the future, but any trace of it here seems to have disappeared down
    the memory hole:

    ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/

    There seems to be some problem accessing FTP (File Transfer
    Protocol) lately on some web browsers. It gradually disappeared from
    Microsoft Edge, then Firefox, then Chrome. I discovered that
    although I keep the Windows OS updated, the old Internet Explorer
    still exists on my PC, and it does not block FTP.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on May 14-16, then 15, 12, 8, 5 and
    8 on May 17-21, 5 on May 22 through June 5, then 8, 5 and 8 on June
    6-8, then 8, 5, 12, 18, and 15 and on June 9-13.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period May 14 to June 8, 2021
    from F.K. Janda, OK1HH of the Czech Propagation Interested Group,
    compiling this geomagnetic activity weekly forecasts since January
    1978.

    "Geomagnetic field will be:
    quiet on: May 19, 25-26, (27-31)
    quiet to unsettled on: May 21, 24, 31, June 1-8
    quiet to active on: May (14-16, 18, 20-23)
    unsettled to active: May (17)
    active to disturbed: none

    "Solar wind will intensify on: May (16,) 17-18, (21-25,) 28-30."

    "Remarks:
    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
    - Contradictory indications significantly reduce the accuracy of the
    forecast."

    Jon Jones, N0JK EM28 Kansas wrote: "6m Es to W6 May 14 to Silicon
    Valley. Worked AH0U and N5KO both CM97. They are in the sporadic-E
    'doughnut' between single and double hop Es."

    Ken Brown, N4SO checks this graph of the EISN each day and "compares
    it with propagation on 30 and 17 meters. Of interest are stations in
    China, Japan, Korea, and Asiatic Russia propagated at 6000 miles
    plus."

    http://www.sidc.be/silso/eisnplot

    The estimated international sunspot number (EISN) is a daily value
    obtained by a simple average over available sunspot counts from 85
    worldwide observers in the SILSO network.

    Also see:

    https://bit.ly/3tNY1kh

    Ken also reported:

    "W1AW Schedule on CW, 18.0975 MHz, 7 PM Code Bulletin, May 11, W1AW
    signals are 40 dB over S9, so I called CQ QRP.

    "Power set to all the way down on the Elecraft K2. Low setting reads
    .1 and W1 power meter reads the lowest power at 100 mW. 0049 UTC
    QRPp 18.076 MHz 100 mW.

    "W3UA N4SO/QRP 18076.1 CW CQ 16 dB 22 wpm 0048z 11 May
    KM3T N4SO/QRP 18076.0 CW CQ 4 dB 22 wpm 0047z 11 May

    "and at 0126 UTC K7QO 18.077 MHz 3 watts QRP.

    "May 11, FT8 mode, 10.136 MHz.

    "Long string of Japanese worked starting with a CQ from JA6VZ at
    0745 UTC.

    "Stations worked/confirmed at 0931 UTC with JE1VTZ and extends to
    1114 UTC with JA2KVD, and JM1FHL with over 26 worked.

    "Strongest stations were JE0ART at -3 dB and JA1IOA at +5 dB. Both
    of these are very strong and rare for a roughly 7000 mile path.

    "Several times (1011 UTC and 1028 UTC) the Band Activity was listing
    a complete string of Japanese call signs busy with a contact or
    calling CQ. My activity screen will list about 24 call signs.

    "The Reverse Beacon Network.

    "At the same time period I checked RBN 10 meters and found this for
    the very early time of 1043 UTC.

    "KC0VKN K4SE 28038.2 CW CQ 1 dB 7 wpm 1043z 11 May

    "Locations are Tennessee (K4SE) and Oxford, Iowa. (KC0VKN)"

    Thanks to the the ARRL Contest Update for the following:

    Check this link for a reference on sporadic-E propagation:

    https://bit.ly/3y7HZoU

    See http://www.arrl.org/the-arrl-contest-update

    Then check this for an interesting sporadic-E real time online tool:

    http://www.propquest.co.uk/map.php

    Two recent reports from the Space Weather Woman, Dr. Tamitha Skov,
    WX6SWW:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CjiAIMDXEFk

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wTSG2Jqzntw

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
    please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net .

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
    an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for May 6 through 12, 2021 were 0, 15, 17, 18, 36,
    31 and 31, with a mean of 21.1. 10.7 cm flux was 70.8, 74.5, 71.6,
    75.9, 76.5, 76.1, and 74.7, with a mean of 74.3. Estimated planetary
    A indices were 4, 3, 3, 4, 6, 3, and 41, with a mean of 9.1. Middle
    latitude A index was 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 4, and 25, with a mean of 7.4.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri May 21 19:33:44 2021

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP021
    ARLP021 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP21
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 21 ARLP021
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA May 21, 2021
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP021
    ARLP021 Propagation de K7RA

    Sunspot activity continues this week, although the average daily
    sunspot numbers and solar flux have not really changed since last
    week's report. This was not expected, because on the first day of
    the reporting week in last week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin
    ARLP020 there was no sunspot activity.

    Average daily sunspot number hardly changed, from 21.1 to 20.3, and
    average daily solar flux went from 74.3 to 74.2. I am surprised that
    solar flux still remains below 80, since April 20.

    Geomagnetic indicators were quiet, but values were slightly lower.

    Average daily planetary A index changed from 9.1 to 6.6, and average
    daily middle latitude A index went from 7.4 to 6.3.

    Predicted solar flux for the next 30 days is 72 on May 21-27, 73 on
    May 28, 75 on May 29-31, 77 on June 1, 78 on June 2-12, then 73, 77
    and 77 on June 13-15, and 75 on June 16-27.

    Predicted planetary A index is 10 and 8 on May 21-22, 5 on May 23
    through June 10, then 8, 5, 10 and 8 on June 11-14, then 5, 10 and 8
    on June 15-17, and 5 on June 18-30 and beyond.

    Yesterday on Thursday planetary A index rose dramatically due to
    increasing solar wind. The STEREO web site at
    https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/ has been a good indicator of
    approaching sunspot activity about to rotate over the Sun's eastern
    horizon, and currently on early Friday I can see a bright active
    region about to become geo-effective.

    OK1HH sends his geomagnetic activity forecast for the period May 21
    to June 15, 2021.

    "Geomagnetic field will be:
    quiet on: May 25-26, (27-31,) June 9-10, 12-13
    quiet to unsettled on: May 24, June 1-8
    quiet to active on: May (21-23, June 11, 14)
    unsettled to active: (June 15)
    active to disturbed: none

    "Solar wind will intensify on: May (21-25,) 28-30, June (7,) 9,
    (14-15).

    "Remarks:
    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
    - Contradictory indications significantly reduce the accuracy of the
    forecast."

    WB6VRN spotted a new location for the NOAA solar cycle progression
    page, https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression and
    notes the site is interactive.

    K1HTV reported, "On 17 meters during the late afternoon on May 18,
    2021, I completed WAC (Worked All Continents), using the FT8 mode,
    in 11 minutes. Around 3:15 AM EDT the next morning, after awaking
    from a restless sleep and while still horizontally polarized, I
    turned on my Android phone. I connected to my shack computer and its
    3 video monitors using the VNC app.

    "At that early hour (0715 UTC) here at my VA QTH, I found 17 Meters
    was already open to Europe. I switched down to 30 Meter FT8 and
    proceeded to work some DX. To my amazement, I was able to make FT8
    contacts with all continents to complete WAC (Worked All Continents)
    in 6 minutes even! Below is the K1HTV log for those contacts, which
    may be a world record for WAC in the shortest time, at least for the
    FT8 mode.

    "30M FT8 WAC (Worked All Continents in 6:00 minutes

    "OC - VK4PN - 2021-0519 07:25:00 started 1st QSO
    EU - F2YT - 2021-0519 07:26:30 send 73 to end 2nd QSO
    AF - EA8AT - 2021-0519 07:27:45 sent 73 to end 3rd QSO
    AS - JH1CCN - 2021-0519 07:28:30 sent 73 to end 4th QSO
    NA - CO8LY - 2021-0519 07:29:30 sent 73 to end 5th QSO
    SA - CE3ALY - 2021-0919 07:31:00 sent 73 to end 6th QSO and complete WAC

    "All QSOs were made while running 75 Watts to the 30M trap dipole of
    an A3WS antenna."

    N4SO reports:

    "I often listen to 28 MHz propagation beacons starting with VE3TEN
    on 28.175 MHz, http://www.oarc.net/photos/ve3ten/ve3ten.html ending
    at 28.300 MHz. I also have about ten 28 MHz beacons in the log from
    0000-0100 UTC.

    "From the HF Beacon Reflector and WJ5O for May 20 Evening 'GREYLINE'
    my location.

    "From 00:25-00:30Z, 20 May 2021 I can hear/identify ten 10-meter
    beacon signals into EM71as.

    "28.2025 KA3BWP STAFFORD, VIRGINIA 1074 km 667 miles
    28.208 WN2A/AK2F BUDD LAKE , NEW JERSEY 1424 km 885 miles
    28.216 K3FX NEPTUNE CITY, NEW JERSEY 1424 km 885 miles
    28.2313 N3TVV JIM THORPE, PENNSYLVANIA 1364 km 848 miles
    28.2327 N2MH WEST ORANGE, NEW JERSEY 1449 km 869 miles
    28.236 W8YT MARTINSBURG, WEST VIRGINIA 1112 km 691 miles
    28.246 KG2GL NUTLEY, NEW JERSEY 1144 km 715 miles
    28.269 AA1TT CLAREMONT, NEW HAMPSHIRE 1763 km 1095 miles
    28.2865 WB0BIN SABIN, MINNESOTA 1900 km 1181 miles
    28.296 W3APL LAUREL, MARYLAND 1172 km 733 miles

    "73 Bill WJ5O.

    "Ken N4SO, EM50
    Southern Alabama"

    Jeff Hartley, N8II reported on Thursday:

    "Hi Tad,

    "The sporadic-E season has gotten off to a great start. Just in the
    past 2 days, there were 3 sporadic-E 28 MHz openings into Europe! On
    the 18th, I saw a spot for F4DSD in France on 10M SSB. We worked,
    but just barely; after a struggle to copy my call, he gave me a 3x3
    report at 2016 UTC. Hearing nothing else, I QSY'ed down to 15M CW
    and worked GW3TMP in Wales and EA8TL in Canary Islands. Then I
    managed to catch Hugh, EI2HI in Ireland and we exchanged 4x2
    reports.

    "The morning of the 19th featured a fairly widespread but weak
    opening to EU on 10M.

    "My first EU QSO was at 1410 UTC with ON7HJA in Belgium on SSB. Then
    I heard Gyuri, HA5JI in Hungary who was the loudest of the opening,
    S7 when we worked, then later near the end at 1433 UTC S5. Also
    worked F8DGY and Germany on CW. I finally got back to the radio at
    2015 UTC and quickly found DK7LX in Germany on 10M CW who was S7. As
    we finished, Ron SP8ARY was calling me; we moved up and made a QSO;
    he was my first 10M Polish QSO in my log started January 2017.

    "Next I called a CW CQ once and was rewarded with a string of EU
    callers from Germany, England, Czech Rep., Serbia, France, OZ4VW,
    first Danish op in my 10M log (new band slot), Netherlands and 2
    more Poles including SQ1921PS. many were rather weak.

    "I then switched to SSB to find stronger signals as the opening
    improved. Ady, G6AD in England was S6 and Karel, ON2KP was S8.
    3Z1921PS, Poland was a new SSB band slot as was 5P1B, Denmark 6
    minutes later. Of course, I found Ian, MM0TFU in Scotland about S7
    who always seems to be there when 10M opens to NA. Calling CQ on
    SSB, I worked a long string of EU stations with few if any CQs
    needed to log the next station.

    "The majority were in western EU, only one weak Italian. Additional
    SSB countries logged were France, Netherlands, Northern Ireland,
    Germany, and Austria. I made many QSOs with England. After 2128Z, I
    searched out stations and found Nick, LZ3ND in Bulgaria who was
    peaking over S9, no wonder with his 4 stacked 7 element Yagis! Also
    worked LZ5DD. PI4DX also with stacked 6 element Yagis was S9.

    "My last SSB QSO before dinner at 2158 UTC was S52WW, Slovenia for a
    new band slot. Returning at 2238 UTC, I found Tom, 9A2AJ, Croatia on
    CW (new slot), OA4DX, Peru on 12M CW for new slot, and Gordon,
    MM0GPZ who was S7-8 on 10M SSB, S7 on 12M (my antenna only 2 el
    Yagi), and a solid S9 on 15M. Despite the great conditions on 15M,
    there was very little SSB or CW activity. My last 10M QSO was
    EI7HBB, Ireland on SSB at 2318 UTC, a very long opening. I made in
    total 64 10M QSOs with Europe.

    "73, Jeff N8II"

    Wow, Jeff!

    Russ W4NI reports from Nashville:

    "The solar storm on 12 May 2021 was not too bad. Despite K=7 at both
    1200 and 1500 UTC, I was able to work DK, EA, LZ, 9A, on 20 CW from
    Tennessee."

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
    please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net .

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
    an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for May 13 through 19, 2021 were 24, 24, 24, 11, 11,
    24 and 24, with a mean of 20.3. 10.7 cm flux was 74.7, 70.9, 73.3,
    73.2, 74.8, 76.4, and 75.9, with a mean of 74.2. Estimated planetary
    A indices were 7, 4, 8, 5, 6, 10, and 6, with a mean of 6.6. Middle
    latitude A index was 7, 4, 8, 4, 6, 10, and 5, with a mean of 6.3.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Nkeck72@618:250/27 to Daryl Stout on Mon May 24 06:34:46 2021
    Daryl wrote:
    ZCZC AP32
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 32 ARLP032
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA August 7, 2020

    Okay, maybe this is just my NNTP reader going crazy or a misconfigured
    board or something, but this year-old report is showing as new/unread...
    is that supposed to happen?
    --- SBBSecho 3.11-Win32
    * Origin: Final Zone BBS - finalzone.ddns.net (618:250/27)
  • From Sean Dennis@618:618/1 to Nkeck72 on Mon May 24 12:41:52 2021
    Nkeck72 wrote to Daryl Stout <=-

    Okay, maybe this is just my NNTP reader going crazy or a misconfigured board or something, but this year-old report is showing as
    new/unread... is that supposed to happen?

    Daryl's system may have barfed and sent out an old message. Nothing to be worried about unless it starts happening a lot. I'll talk to Daryl.

    Later,
    Sean

    ... WinErr 01F: Reserved for future mistakes of our developers.
    --- MultiMail/Linux
    * Origin: Outpost BBS * Micronet World HQ (618:618/1)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri May 28 17:39:46 2021

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP022
    ARLP022 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP22
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 22 ARLP022
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA May 28, 2021
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP022
    ARLP022 Propagation de K7RA

    The 10.7 cm solar flux rose this week, and on Wednesday May 26 it
    reached 88, the highest since December 7, 2020, when it was 89.5.

    The next day the 2300 UTC flux value was 94.2.

    The official flux value is always the local noon reading at Canada's
    Dominion Radio Astrophysical Research Facility (see
    https://bit.ly/3fpiAiS ) in Penticton, British Columbia, 177 miles
    northeast of my Seattle QTH. You can see the thrice daily readings
    at https://bit.ly/3hT1hsk .

    Average daily solar flux rose this week to 77.8 from last week's
    average of 74.2, while the average daily sunspot number increased
    from 20.3 to 24.9.

    I hope this signals a return to the enhanced activity and HF
    conditions we saw at the end of 2020, and a resumption of solar
    cycle 25's upward climb.

    Predicted solar flux over the next month is 83, 81, 80 and 76 on May
    28 to 31, 72 on June 1 to 3, 73 on June 4, 74 on June 5 to 10, 75 on
    June 11, 77 on June 12 to 15, 79 on June 16 to 23, and 76 on June 24
    to 29.

    Predicted planetary A index is 10, 5, 8, 5 and 8 on May 28 through
    June 1, then 5 on June 2 and beyond, possibly into mid-July.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period May 28 til June 22,
    2021 from F. K. Janda, OK1HH.

    "Geomagnetic field will be
    Quiet on: May (30 and 31,) June 9 and 10, 12 and 13
    Quiet to unsettled on: June 1 to 8, 17 to 20
    Quiet to active on: May 28 and 29, June 11, 14 to 16, 21 and 22
    Unsettled to active: Nothing predicted
    Active to disturbed: Nothing predicted

    Solar wind will intensify on May 28 to 30, June (7,) 9, (14 and 15,
    17 to 19, 22)

    Remarks:
    - The increased geomagnetic activity on May 26-27 was due to solar
    flares with CME on May 22. Therefore, it could not be predicted last
    time, ie on May 20.
    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
    - Accuracy of the forecast remains lower."

    Jon Jones N0JK reports from Kansas:

    "The summer 2021 sporadic E season is off to a strong start. Here
    in Kansas I had Europe in on 6 Meters May 19. DK1MAX peaked to -3
    dB with audible tones at 1540z. Earliest I have had Europe on 6
    Meter Es.

    May 26 Hawaii to the Midwest on 6 Meters. KF0M (EM17) in Wichita,
    KS had KH6CJJ on Maui up to -4 dB around 2000z. The Hawaiians were
    in over an hour."

    The mode was FT8.

    "Hi Tad --

    Quite a surprise for the solar flux to jump up into the 80s and then
    the 90s today (Thursday).

    I was trying out a modified small HF loop (homebrew) on my kayak in
    the Mokelumne River in Northern California today and wasn't getting
    out very well. Then I thought I'd give 17m SSB a final try before
    packing up my gear. Transmitter power was 12 watts.

    Heard two VKs coming in loud and clear, and managed to catch VK2CPC,
    Les, just as he finished a QSO. He gave me a 3-3 report and managed
    to get my call sign correct. Fortunately my kayak was in such a
    position that the loop was aimed toward Australia.

    And, my buddy caught two bass. Good day for both of us.

    bil paul, KD6JUI
    Dixon CA"

    Michael May, WB8VLC in Oregon reported:

    "Another weird week of non ham activity on 10 meters to report along
    with lots of 6 meter activity.

    The most interesting thing heard on 10 meters was not ham contacts.
    It was non ham intruders heard this past Sunday while tuning around
    10 meters looking for beacons when I came across some North Korean
    fishing boats operating on 28.175 and 28.275 MHZ FM mode.

    This was at 2120 UTC May 22, 2021 and the signals were in for the
    next 2 hours. The attached recording is condensed from over a 2
    hour period. (email K7RA for a 836 KB MP3 copy.)

    A co-worker listened to the recording and said it sounds like a
    North Korean dialect and after more research we found that they are
    most likely squid fishing boats around the Asiatic Russian coast
    north of Japan and east of mainland Asiatic Russia, where these
    boats are typically found.

    The signals peak on my 4 el 10 meter OWA at 330 degrees.

    I have not heard these signals in over 9 years which leads me to
    think that a 10 meter FM path to Japan is possible, research on
    these boats indicates only 25 watts of FM carrier with 102 inch
    whips.

    No real interesting 10 meter ham contacts to list as the North
    Korean fishing boats is certainly enough for my 10 meter listing.

    6 meters was my best band over the past 2 weeks for real ham to ham
    QSOs and here are some of the interesting ones.

    All of the 6 meter SSB contacts were well over S9 both ways and the
    QSOs lasted for over 45 minutes each, real rag chews.

    On 6 meters SSB/FT8/CW I use my K3S to a 6 element high gain Yagi on
    the same boom as my 4 elements for 10 meters and 500 watts from a
    home made LDMOS amplifier.

    On 6 meter FM I use the Hygain V-6R stacked 5/8th wave, 25 foot long
    co-linear vertical and 110 watts with a GE Orion FM land mobile
    transceiver.

    6 meter contacts, all times/dates UTC:

    2021-05-18 0327 KH6HI 50.313 FT8 BL01xi
    2021-05-19 0420 VE8CK 50.313 FT8 DP22TK
    2021-05-22 0241 W5WTX 50.090 CW DM95cc
    2021-05-23 1859 VE3WN 50.313 FT8 FN03ht
    2021-05-24 0035 W0VTT 50.098 CW EN33xx
    2021-05-24 0120 TI2ALF 50.313 FT8 EJ79xv
    2021-05-26 0229 KG4HOT 50.180 SSB FM07pt
    2021-05-26 0232 KD4AA 50.180 SSB FM17ur
    2021-05-26 0243 WB7PMP 50.180 SSB EM95pu
    2021-05-26 0335 KA6NLS/rptr 51.940 FM DM35cd Kingman, AZ
    2021-05-26 1525 VA3IKE 50.313 FT8 EN82qb"

    N1API reported last week: "I suppose by now you have heard of the 6
    meter opening on May 19. I was fortunate to work a total of 59
    stations on FT8. The most amazing thing was that band was still
    open into Europe at 10 PM Local which would be 2 AM or later in
    Europe depending on how deep the opening was. Stations from the US
    were also seen. The next morning at daybreak had signals from Spain
    and Italy on 6 meters. I can't remember seeing conditions like this
    before."

    N4SO reports: "In the weird category, my signal was picked up on
    Pskreporter in Ukraine. The notation, a one and ONLY, reads as
    follows:

    Rx at Monday, 17 May 2021 18:08 GMT
    From N4SO BY UX0ZAB Loc KN66au15
    Frequency 28.074.741 MHz (10m) FT8 -13DB
    Distance 9552 km bearing 36 degrees

    The map location shows Ukraine. At that time, I was transmitting,
    both calling CQ, and working mostly USA. UX0ZAB, is a monitoring
    station and we did not make a contact, other than his reception
    report of my signal. I realize that UX0ZAB is not a Ukraine call
    sign but they move around a lot."

    Check this web site for synoptic map images:

    https://nso.edu/data/nisp-data/synoptic-maps/

    It has been a long time since we presented a link to an article
    about the important work of astronomer Hisako Koyama:

    https://youtu.be/LxM9PhcY_90

    https://bit.ly/3uy4DDz

    Thanks to K5FB for these links on long term solar flux prediction:

    https://bit.ly/2TqQCef

    https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/1538-4365/abef6d

    New solar telescope planned for Canary Islands:

    https://bit.ly/3hZThWk

    News from WX6SWW, Dr. Tamitha Skov, the Space Weather Woman:

    https://youtu.be/qCtYMVjdMwM

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for May 20 through 26, 2021 were 13, 13, 19, 30, 29,
    36, and 34, with a mean of 24.9. 10.7 cm flux was 72.3, 73.7, 75.6,
    79, 72.7, 83.5, and 88, with a mean of 77.8. Estimated planetary A
    indices were 24, 7, 5, 4, 4, 3, and 13, with a mean of 8.6. Middle
    latitude A index was 17, 8, 5, 4, 2, 3, and 12, with a mean of 7.3.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Jun 11 20:30:40 2021

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP024
    ARLP024 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP24
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 24 ARLP024
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA June 11, 2021
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP024
    ARLP024 Propagation de K7RA

    Sunspot activity has given us steady but modest increases over the
    past three weeks, with average daily sunspot weekly averages rising
    from 24.9 to 28 last week to 34.9 this week.

    But oddly, average daily solar flux for the same three weeks was
    77.8, then 77.8 again last week, and now 77.7 over the latest seven
    day reporting period, remarkably unchanged week after week.

    Average daily planetary A index went from 6.1 last week to 5.9 in
    this week's report, and middle latitude A index was 6.3 and then
    6.9.

    Predicted solar flux over the next month is 75 on June 11-20, 80 on
    June 13-17, 75 then 80, 82 and 77 on June 21-23, 76 on June 24 to
    July 5, then 74, 74 and 75 on July 6-8, 74 on July 9-14 and 75 on
    June 16-17.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on June 11-13, 8 on June 14-15,
    then 20 and 18 on June 16-17, 5 on June 18-25, 7 on June 26, 5 on
    June 27 through July 4, then 15, 10 and 8 on July 5-7, 5 on July
    8-12, 20 and 8 on July 13-14, and 5 after mid-July.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period June 11 til July 7,
    2021 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH who has compiled these reports weekly
    beginning in January, 1978.

    "Geomagnetic field will be:
    quiet on: June 12-13, 18-20, 24, 27-28, July 1-2
    quiet to unsettled on: June 11, 15, 17, 29-30, July 6
    quiet to active on: June 11, 14, 17, 21, 25-26, July 3-4
    unsettled to active: June 16, 22-23, July 5
    active to disturbed: - none

    "Solar wind will intensify on: June (11-13,) 17 (-18,) (22-24, 29,)
    July (2,) 4-5.

    "Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement."

    Checking the STEREO mission at https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov every
    day we see more activity in store over the Sun's eastern horizon.
    You will recognize it as intense white splotches

    Watching 6 meters on pskreporter.info on Wednesday night at 10:50 PM
    PDT (0550 UTC Thursday) I noticed an odd late night opening in
    western North America. Showing many long distance FT8 contacts, some
    had positive signal reports, above the noise. This is notable
    because most reports on this web site show negative signal strengths
    of -17 to -20 dB, but one stood out. It was a 609 mile +5 dB signal
    report from K6VVP in San Francisco (CM87rs) to WA7DUH in Eastern
    Washington state (DN06hg). Later I saw a 727 mile report from KA9UVY
    (EM58mk in Illinois) to N3OUC (FN20fm in Pennsylvania) at 0632 UTC
    but the signal report at only -10 dB. Both reports showed the
    frequency as 50.314 MHz.

    Of course, when FT8 signal reports are above 0, the same path should
    be viable for other modes, such as CW and SSB.

    Michael May, WA8VLC/7 in Salem, Oregon wrote:

    "It's been 2 weeks since an update and aside from some FT8, SSB and
    CW DX and stateside on 6 meters, including Trinidad and Hawaii on
    50.313 and some Midwest and eastern US and Canada on 6 meter FT8,
    SSB and CW mostly last week, still the most interesting and weird
    things still occurred on 10 meters both ham and non ham activity.

    "On May 31 on 29.62 MHz FM I found the KQ2H repeater in New York in
    for several hours and I spent most of the day talking to several
    hams all over the Eastern and Southeast US on this repeater which
    never faded for the entire day.

    "I actually took an hour break and went to 10 SSB and worked French
    Guiana on 10 SSB and when I came back the 29.62 repeater was still
    20 dB over S9, this was simply the best 10 meter activity I have
    seen in years on FM.

    "10 meter weirdness again non-ham stuff:

    "Last nite on June 9th UTC time at 0330 to 0355, me and another
    Salem ham, K6FIB, both heard on 3 different radios at 2 different
    locations and different antennas several non-ham french speaking
    stations coming thru my 10 meter remote base on 29.6 FM speaking to
    another much weaker non-ham for 15 minutes.

    "At this time I zeroed my 4 el 10 meter Yagi to a ~195 degree
    heading which put them somewhere in the Eastern Pacific, but where?

    "After some searching around on other 10 meter frequencies I heard
    similar voices on 28.700 FM speaking a similar French dialect but
    this time there were two of them readable and one that appeared to
    be a base station who was much stronger and another one he was
    chatting with that was much weaker but still readable.

    "After listening to the 28.700 FM transmission for half an hour the
    strong one identified saying 'Pape'ete radio' at 0355 UTC and
    several minutes later they slowly faded out.

    "This would put these transmissions in Pape'ete in French Polynesia
    but most interesting is that again there were no FM hams on in that
    region on 10 meters.

    "In the past 30 years I have never heard a ham station from these
    locations on FM so not surprising at all; however, there were South
    Pacific hams in ZL on 28.074 FT8 and 10 meter CW at the same time.

    "These stations, aside from French speaking, sounded like a standard
    FM Land Mobile agency that one would hear on VHF. But I am now
    discovering more of these weird non-ham signals between 26 and 39
    MHz from non US locations."

    [Great investigative work, Michael! Readers may recall in ARLP022
    Michael reported hearing North Korean squid fishermen on 10-meter
    FM. Quite the catch. -K7RA]

    "My recent logs, times in UTC:

    "2021-06-06 2011 KC7I/KH6 50.313 FT8 BL10
    2021-06-06 1950 9Y4D 50.313 FT8 FK90gg 2021-06-03 0359 K7EME 50.155 SSB DM42jh 2021-06-03 0358 K7ZYP 50.155 SSB DM41KX 2021-06-03 0232 W7PMS 52.560 FM DM34tn Prescott, AZ 2021-06-01 0207 WB7PMP 50.145 SSB EM95pu 2021-06-01 0205 K9PPY 50.125 SSB EN51xx 2021-06-01 0128 WS9V 50.092 CW EM59DL
    2021-06-01 0118 W3HKK 50.099 CW EN80qe 2021-06-01 0108 K9PPY 50.095 CW EN51xx 2021-06-01 0103 K9MRI 50.099 CW EN70iu
    1708 WA8FGV 50.125 SSB EN82ig
    1705 K1EAR 50.125 SSB DN84lc 2021-05-31 0110 VE2XK 50.313 FT8 FN07pj 2021-05-31 0100 VE4VT 50.313 FT8 EN19kt

    "10 meters on the KQ2H FM repeater, 29.62 in NY state and French
    Guiana on 10 SSB.

    "2021-05-31 1952 KR1COP 29.620 FM FN21tr
    2021-05-31 1952 W2GGI 29.620 FM EL96wk 2021-05-31 1949 KD2VQR 29.620 FM FN21ro 2021-05-31 1945 KD2SBO 29.620 FM FN21TO 2021-05-31 1933 KK4ANE 29.620 FM EL97RV 2021-05-31 1932 AA2EC 10m 29.620 FM FN32dg
    2021-05-31 1915 FY5HB 10m 28.441 SSB GJ34WH"

    Jon Jones, N0JK reported from Kansas EM28 on Saturday, June 5:

    "Saw the East Coast had a big Es opening to Europe all afternoon
    June 4. Nil out here.

    "May 30 and 31 good here. On May 31 had JA8JEP (QN03) in at -14 dB
    2238z 50.323 MHz FT8.

    "Today (June 5) XE2X spotted 9K2OD on 50.323 MHz FT8 at 1335z. That
    is remarkable.

    "2021-06-05 13:35 XE2X (EL06VC) 50.323.0 FT8
    9K2OD (LL49AI) 12,871 km Multihop Sp-E FT8 -06 TNX LOUD"

    Check https://bit.ly/359URNG for a video of the huge antenna array
    built for the former Soviet over the horizon HF radar, the Russian
    Woodpecker, a constant annoyance for HF operators a few decades ago.
    Quite impressive, though!

    The web site for the Apache Point Observatory in Sunspot, New
    Mexico, is:

    https://www.apo.nmsu.edu

    The latest video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, can be found at:

    https://youtu.be/1zpoInkZ_gE

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
    please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net .

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
    an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for June 3 through 9, 2021 were 28, 30, 30, 42, 53,
    34, and 27, with a mean of 34.9. 10.7 cm flux was 75.5, 77.1, 74.4,
    77.4, 80.8, 79.9, and 78.6, with a mean of 77.7. Estimated planetary
    A indices were 6, 5, 4, 5, 12, 5, and 4, with a mean of 5.9. Middle
    latitude A index was 8, 4, 4, 6, 15, 7, and 4, with a mean of 6.9.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Jun 18 13:20:37 2021

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP025
    ARLP025 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP25
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 25 ARLP025
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA June 18, 2021
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP025
    ARLP025 Propagation de K7RA

    Solar activity was lower this week, with average daily sunspot
    number declining from 34.9 last week to 13.9 this week. This average
    was affected by the one day with no sunspots, Saturday, June 12

    Average daily solar flux dropped from 77.7 to 75.2. The Penticton
    observatory in British Columbia (the source for 10.7 cm solar flux)
    did not report a noon reading on Wednesday, June 16, so we averaged
    the morning (76.9 at 1700 UTC) and afternoon readings (77.1 at 2300
    UTC) to come up with 77 as a reasonable approximation.

    Normally the local noon reading (2000 UTC) is the official number
    for the day. You can get the three daily readings direct from the
    Dominion Astrophysical Observatory at, https://bit.ly/35u12fU .

    On Thursday the noon flux reading was 85, higher than its been since
    May 26, when it was 88.

    Predicted solar flux for the near term is 75 on June 18-20, 80 on
    June 21-25, 77 on June 26-28, 78 on June 29 through July 7, 79 on
    July 8-10, 77 on July 11-13, 76 on July 14-16, 78 on July 17, 80 on
    July 18-20, then 78 on July 21, and 77 on July 22-25.

    Predicted planetary A index is 12 on June 18, 5 on June 19-25, 7 on
    June 26, 5 on June 27 through July 4, then 15, 10 and 8 on July 5-7,
    5 on July 8, then 8 on July 9-11, then 10, 12, 20 and 12 on July
    12-15, and 5 on July 16-22, then 7 on July 23.

    I am very excited about this forecast for the current solar cycle
    25, in which we are now seeing only the early stages:

    https://bit.ly/2U7xt17

    Forbes Magazine is reporting this:

    https://bit.ly/2UbEG0m

    "Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period June 18-July 15, 2021.

    "Geomagnetic field will be:
    quiet on: June 20, 24, 27-28, July 1, 10, 15
    quiet to unsettled on: June 18-19, July 11, 14
    quiet to active on: June 21, 23, 25-26, 29-30, July 2, 6-9
    unsettled to active: (June 22, July 3-5, 12-13)
    active to disturbed: - nothing!

    "Solar wind will intensify on: June (18-19,) 21, (22-24, 29,) 30,
    July (2,) 3, 5, 10-11.

    "Remarks:
    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    "F.K. Janda, OK1HH (from Czech Propagation Interested Group
    compiling this geomagnetic activity weekly forecast since January
    1978)."

    "Hi Tad,

    "On June 4th-5th there was a very good 10M sporadic-E opening to
    Europe which started well before I started at 2200 UTC. Ian, MM0TFU
    was first in the log on 10 SSB with 58 reports both ways. Andy,
    LZ2HM was next on CW with a good signal; no other EU stations within
    1000 KM were worked. Most all of my QSOs were with the UK and
    Ireland; I worked all 4 major UK DXCC countries. EI6JK and EI3EIB
    were both loud after 2400 UTC, last QSO was 0022 UTC with a total of
    about 20 EU QSOs. Signal levels were very good from most stations.

    "On June 11th 10M was open on Es to somewhere most of the day. At
    1900 UTC stations from FL and the Gulf Coast were loud including K4D
    on Dog Island, IOTA NA-085, in the Big Bend area of the Gulf. Around
    2000 UTC, I worked MO, NE, and MI. Then at 2200 UTC three very loud
    VE3 stations from North Central Ontario. AC2CZ/VE2 in Montreal, PQ
    running 12W to a dipole was next. Starting 2347 UTC I worked KS, MI,
    MN, and IL before 2 double hop Es contacts after 2400 UTC with N7WWH
    near the coast of north OR and KM6YSS in Canyon County, ID. At 0027
    UTC, XE1XR in central Mexico was S9+ and easily worked followed by
    Luis, XE2B at 0036 UTC. All contacts were on SSB.

    "The ARRL June VHF contest was the 12th into the early hours of the
    14th which found some sporadic-E most of the time. On 6M SSB and CW,
    I made 130 QSOs with my poor performing Yagi. The Es started around
    2230 UTC with stations in TN and TX and northern FL. Sunday morning
    the 13th, Es started with W0WP in IA Grid EN42 and spread to other
    W0s followed by an intense opening to the S and SW with my closest
    contact being Ed, K3DNE in EM94 SC. Many GA stations were very loud
    as were many in FL and some in TX and OK. I also caught Nova Scotia
    and Newfoundland. At 1546 UTC, I found EA8BPX in the Canary Islands,
    grid IL18, and was able to get through. In the afternoon many local
    stations on FT8 were working EU stations mostly in Spain, France,
    and Portugal. I worked F4ARU in France at 1834 UTC on SSB. Late
    around 0100 UTC, the band was still open well to EM19 (NQ0P as loud
    as a nearby local), EM49, and EM18.

    "Today, the 17th there was an opening to Spain on 10M at 1950 UTC to
    EA7HZ and EA3AR. My noise level was very high. MM0TFU was reporting
    hearing beacons near my QTH and farther up the East Coast at
    2200-2300 UTC. At 0012 UTC on the 18th, I worked VP9KD in Bermuda
    who was S9+ for a new band slot on 10M SSB.

    "73, Jeff N8II."

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
    please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net .

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for June 10 through 16, 2021 were 29, 13, 0, 22, 11,
    11, and 11, with a mean of 13.9. 10.7 cm flux was 73.3, 77.3, 77.6,
    68.9, 76.8, 75.5, and 77, with a mean of 75.2. Estimated planetary A
    indices were 5, 10, 10, 7, 4, 17, and 14, with a mean of 9.6. Middle
    latitude A index was 5, 11, 8, 7, 7, 15, and 15, with a mean of 9.7.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Jul 2 17:52:47 2021
    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP027
    ARLP027 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP27
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 27 ARLP027
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA July 2, 2021
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP027
    ARLP027 Propagation de K7RA

    Solar activity is strong! Average daily sunspot number rose from 14
    to 34.7, and average daily solar flux increased from 79.3 to 86.9.
    Both figures represent a dramatic increase in solar activity. These
    averages are for the recent seven day period, Thursday through
    Wednesday, and the sunspot number on Thursday was 56, which is above
    the average of 34.7, always a good sign.

    Planetary A index went from 5.3 to 6.1, while average daily middle
    latitude A index was at 6.1, the same as last week.

    Predicted solar flux is 94 on July 2 to 6, 90 on July 7 and 8, 85 on
    July 9 to 11, 82 on July 12 to 14, 80 on July 15 to 18, 82 on July
    19, 85 on July 20 to 24, 88 on July 25, 90 on July 26 to 28, 92 on
    July 29 through August 1, 90 on August 2, and 85 on August 3 to 7.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8, 12, 8, 10 and 8 on July 2 to 6, 5
    on July 7 and 8, 8 on July 9 and 10, then 5, 15 and 12 on July 11 to
    13, 5 on July 14 to 20, 8 on July 21, 5 on July 22 to 26, 10 on July
    27, 5 on July 28 to 30, 12 on July 31, 5 on August 1 to 4, then 8 on
    August 5 and 6, and 5, 15 and 12 on August 7 to 9.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period July 2 to 29, 2021 from
    F. K. Janda, OK1HH.

    "Geomagnetic field will be
    Quiet on: July 16 and 17, 24 and 25
    Quiet to unsettled on: July 2 and 3, 6 and 7, 9 to 11, 18, 23, 29
    Quiet to active on: July 4 and 5, 12, 14 and 15, (19 to 22,) 26
    Qnsettled to active: July (8,) 13, 27 and 28
    Active to disturbed: nothing forecast

    Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement."

    Jon Jones, N0JK reports from Kansas EM28:

    "A sporadic-E opening to Europe on 50 MHz on July 1 to the Heartland
    (Midwest USA) the afternoon of July 1.

    I decoded many Europeans. F6EXV in with a good signal. But difficult
    getting takers. Finally worked G4PLZ at 1933z. He was my only PSK
    flag in Europe.

    Even area ops who run KW and big Yagis were having trouble raising
    Europe, but saw one work F6EXV and I think EI4DQ. K0TPP EM48 to the
    east having better luck with Europe.

    Here in northeast Kansas decoded EA, EI, F, G, and PA2M. EI3KD,
    EI4DQ had good signals."

    K4ZOT reported on June 28 from EM73 near Atlanta:

    "I thought you might be interested in this 6M DX which totally caught
    me by surprise today.

    I have been a 6M enthusiast since I received my license in 1964 when
    I operated a Layette HA-460 6M 10W transceiver. In all this time I
    have never worked or heard an African 6M station. I have worked JA
    several times on 6M and other Pacific locations, but never Africa.
    Much to my total surprise today, June 28, at 1926 UTC, 5T5PA
    (Mauritania) suddenly popped on the FT8 JTALert 'Callsigns' screen
    with an audio alert of new DX. Again, to my utter amazement I worked
    him on the first call, a distance of 4241 miles. Not the longest 6M
    DX by far, but surprising from Africa at least from this location.

    I believe he worked one or two other stations and then he was gone.
    Perhaps only on for 2-3 minutes. A wonderful 6M DX from my station
    using a 5 element Yagi at only 32 feet.

    6M is indeed the 'Magic Band' as it has been for me for 55 years of
    operation. Best of all - Johannes confirmed the contact in LOTW
    just a few minutes after we made contact. Thank you Johannes - a
    true Ham in the best spirit of the hobby."

    KA3JAW reported:

    "On Thursday, July 1, 2021 at 10:15 am EDT, FM-DXer Bryce Foster in
    Mashpee, Massachusetts received 87.7 RTP Antena-3 Pico da Barrosa,
    Azores via 2x-Es. Station running 30 kW by vertical polarization.
    Distance 2379 air miles. Reception lasted up to 35 minutes with
    audio identification along with a stream match. This is the first
    time I heard of a US to Azores link on the FM broadcast band.

    W9NY reported on June 28:

    "The propagation on 20 meters between my Dune Acres, Indiana station
    and much of Europe and Asiatic Russia beginning last night (6/27/21)
    at 11 pm and continuing for about 2 hours was absolutely amazing. It
    reminded me of 10 meters at the peak of prior sunspot cycles.

    Around 14.208 I called CQ and worked one station after another, from
    Finland in the North to Corsica and Greece in the South and all
    across Russia to several points in Siberia. Many of the signal
    reports given and received were 20 to 30 DB over S9. A couple
    nearly pinned the needle on my Icom 7610. In fact, I worked many
    stations running 100 watts to simple antennas like a dipole or
    vertical that were coming in over S9 and a few stations that were
    QRP but still producing S5 to S7 signals. I have not heard an
    opening like that in many years and it was certainly a lot of fun. I
    probably should have turned on my QRP rig but I never got around to
    it!

    Perhaps a harbinger of things to come!

    I did check out 17, 15, 12, 10 and 6, which were all quiet.

    And today there was a fair amount of activity on 10 meters and 6
    meters."

    Frank, W3LPL wrote:

    "Propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to
    be mostly normal through Sunday. There is a slight possibility that
    isolated below normal intervals may briefly degrade propagation
    through the auroral ovals and polar regions from midday Saturday
    through early Sunday.

    We are in the quiet geomagnetic activity season, only about half as
    many geomagnetically disturbed days occur in June and July compared
    to the more geomagnetically active equinox seasons.

    Sporadic-E propagation occurs every day during June and July at
    mid-latitudes in the northern hemisphere making long distance
    propagation up to 15,000 km sporadically available in the 17, 15,
    12, 10 and 6 meter bands from sunrise through midnight and
    occasionally somewhat later.

    The solar flux is likely to be at least 94 through Sunday. Solar
    active region 2835 has grown to 770 micro-hemispheres (2.3 billion
    square kilometers, four times the surface area of the Earth), almost
    as large as the active region that significantly improved HF
    propagation during late November 2020. Region 2835 is significantly
    improving HF propagation on 30 and 20 meters during late afternoon,
    nighttime and early morning hours and 17 and 15 meter propagation
    during the day through early evening. Active regions 2836 and 2837
    are slowly and quietly decaying and are having no effect on HF
    propagation.

    https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg

    160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
    South Pacific is likely to be seasonably normal through Sunday.

    40 meter short path propagation to south Asia is likely to be mostly
    normal at about 0015 UTC through Sunday. 40 meter short path
    propagation from North America to east Asia after about 0930 UTC is
    likely to be mostly normal with a slight possibility of isolated
    below normal intervals on Saturday.

    30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is
    likely to be mostly normal with a slight possibility of isolated
    below normal intervals late Saturday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly degraded within a few hours of local noon because of
    E-region blanketing of long distance F2 propagation.

    30 meter night time long distance propagation in the northern
    hemisphere is likely to improve due to increased ionizing solar
    radiation in the northern high latitude regions caused by increased
    sunspot activity, higher solar elevation angles and much shorter
    nights with no source of ionizing solar radiation.

    20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
    and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a slight
    possibility of isolated below normal intervals late Saturday.

    20 meter northern transpolar propagation within a few hours of
    sunrise and sunset is improving with increased solar ionizing
    radiation on the northern polar region caused by increased sunspot
    activity and high solar elevation angles 24 hours per day during the
    midnight sun season. 20 meter long distance propagation is
    significantly degraded from mid-morning through late afternoon at
    low and mid-latitudes in the northern hemisphere by F1 region midday
    blanketing of low angle propagation during the summer.

    20 meter late afternoon, nighttime and early morning long distance
    propagation in the northern hemisphere is likely to improve due to
    increased ionizing solar radiation in the northern high latitude
    regions caused by increasing sunspot activity, higher solar
    elevation angles and much shorter nights with no source of ionizing
    solar radiation.

    17 and 15 meter daytime long distance propagation in the northern
    hemisphere is likely to improve due to increased ionizing solar
    radiation in the northern high latitude regions caused by increasing
    sunspot activity, high solar elevation angles and long days.

    17, 15, 12, 10 and 6 meter sporadic-E propagation up to 15,000 km is
    likely to be sporadically available from sunrise through midnight
    and occasionally later through late July.

    Geomagnetic disturbances caused by coronal hole high speed stream
    effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less
    frequent through at least late 2021. The southward oriented (-Bz)
    component of the IMF plays a crucial but unpredictable role in
    triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate
    geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists
    in a southward orientation (-Bz) with enhanced IMF field strength
    for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed
    coronal hole high speed stream.

    More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms
    may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in
    a southward orientation (-Bz) with enhanced IMF field strength for
    several hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth
    directed fast CME.

    There is a slight possibility that Earth-directed effects of a weak
    CME and continuing weak coronal hole high speed stream effects may
    slightly to moderately enhance IMF field strength, solar wind speed
    near Earth and geomagnetic activity. If the weak CME is
    geo-effective it may slightly degrade HF propagation through the
    auroral ovals from midday Saturday through early Sunday. Geomagnetic
    storms are not likely through Sunday. There is a slight possibility
    of an M-class solar flare from Friday through Sunday, but its
    possible HF propagation effects are likely to be brief and minor.

    Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is now 77 minutes later and
    daylength is 163 minutes longer than it was on the March 20th.
    Daylength and solar elevation angle in the northern polar region are
    slowly declining through mid-July due to gradually waning summer
    solstice effects."

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for June 24 through 30, 2021 were 11, 25, 16, 32,
    50, 56, and 53, with a mean of 34.7. 10.7 cm flux was 80.6, 83.4,
    82.4, 87, 88.6, 92.5, and 94.1, with a mean of 86.9.. Estimated
    planetary A indices were 5, 7, 4, 4, 4, 5, and 14, with a mean of
    6.1. Middle latitude A index was 6, 8, 5, 4, 4, 5, and 11, with a
    mean of 6.1.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Jul 23 20:43:42 2021
    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP030
    ARLP030 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP30
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 30 ARLP030
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA July 23, 2021
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP030
    ARLP030 Propagation de K7RA

    It is exciting to observe increasing sunspot activity. Recently
    solar cycle 25 produced new sunspots frequently, and I watch them
    pop up every day on Spaceweather.com. New sunspots emerged on July
    14, 16, 17, 19 and 20, and two new ones appeared on July 21. When I
    look at https://bit.ly/36TTO5t on July 22, our sun is peppered with
    spots, reminding me of past solar cycles.

    Average daily sunspot numbers more than doubled from 21.3 last week
    to 48.9 during this reporting week, July 15 to 21. Average daily
    solar flux went from 72.9 to 81.3.

    Geomagnetic numbers held steady, with both the middle latitude and
    planetary A index averages at 6.4.

    Predicted solar flux is 89 and 87 on July 23 to 24, 85 on July 25 to
    30, 90 on July 31 through August 1, 85 on August 2, 75 on August 3
    to 12, then 78, 80 and 80 on August 13 to 15, and 85 on August 16 to
    21, and 90 on August 22 to 28.

    Predicted planetary A index is 18, 16 and 8 on July 23 to 25, 5 on
    July 26 and 27, 8 on July 28, 5 on July 29 through August 1, 8 on
    August 2, 5 on August 3 to 9, then 12 and 10 on August 10 and 11, 5
    on August 12 to 16, 8 on August 17 and 18, 5 on August 19 to 28, and
    8 on August 29.

    F. K. Janda, OK1HH sent his geomagnetic activity forecast for the
    period July 23 til August 19, 2021, before he takes a week of
    vacation:

    "Geomagnetic field will be
    Quiet on: July 25, 30, August 7, 12 and 13
    Quiet to unsettled on: July 24, 28 and 29, 31, August 9, 14
    Quiet to active on: July 23, 26, August 1, 3 to 6, 11, 15 to 17, 19
    Unsettled to active: July 27, August 2, 8, 10, 18
    Active to disturbed: None predicted.

    Remarks:
    Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    Next Thursday, I will not compile a forecast of the Earth's magnetic
    field activity, because I will be walking on the highest mountains
    of my country-the Krkonoue Mountains. Without the conveniences of
    civilization as computer or the Internet. But I will have a good
    friends, camera and binoculars with me."

    Go to OH6BG on QRZ.com to see his interesting VOACAP links.

    I've been having fun using remote SDR receivers at
    http://kiwisdr.com/public/ to hunt for 10 meter beacons during the
    day. This revealed much more sporadic-e propagation than I was
    previously aware of.

    On Thursday, using the AB9MQ receiver in Normal, Illinois via http://ab9mq.hopto.org:8073/ I copied beacons KE5JXC/B in Kaplan,
    Louisiana on 28.2515 MHz, WD8INF/B in Lebanon, Ohio on 28.2525 MHz
    and KC5SQD/B in Missouri City, Texas on 28.2508 MHz.

    You will notice on the https://www.qsl.net/wj5o/bcn.htm beacon
    roster that the listings resolve to 100 Hz, instead of 1 KHz. This
    allows more of them to be packed together on the band. The three
    beacons mentioned here today were all copied with the receiver tuned
    to the same frequency, and because they transmit on slightly
    different frequencies make them easy to copy.

    A correction, I mentioned my new CW beacon, K7RA/B on 28.2833 MHz in
    last week's bulletin ARLP029. The power output is actually 11
    watts, not 5 watts, I was reminded by UY5DJ/AA7DJ who generously
    built the beacon transmitter and controller.

    N8II wrote:

    "There was much intense sporadic-e, mostly within the USA and Canada
    on July 13 to 15 with double hop to MT, UT, WA, OR, BC, CA, NV and
    AZ.

    Several times the skip zone shortened to stations less than 300
    miles away in NC, SC, KY, and OH. I easily made over 100 QSOs. I
    worked Steve, VE2CSI in Sept-Iles, Quebec, grid FO60 a couple of
    times on ten meters and once on six meters, all SSB.

    Things were fairly quiet until July 18 when Europe came through well
    on 10M starting just after 1200 UTC working 9A2U, Croatia, and Vlada
    YU4VLA Serbia, along with Italy, Bulgaria, Switzerland, Belgium,
    Scotland, and several German stations until 1319 UTC.

    Just after 0000 UTC on the 19th, 10M SSB came alive with stations
    from Maine and the US 4th area. I found TI5KMK in Costa Rica
    probably via Es, and also Puerto Rico. Suddenly on the 21st upstate
    NY and New England stations with big signals appeared starting 2214
    UTC. French stations F6ARC and F4AIF were found around 2240 UTC.

    Today the 22nd was one of the best openings of the year to western
    EU on 10M. I ran quite a few stations on 28430 KHz SSB after
    calling EI2IP and EI3GD in Ireland starting 1941 UTC. Signal levels
    were very good and many stations were active. The highlight was
    being called by Swedish hams SE5S and Hawk, SM5AQD who was peaking
    S9 running 1500W to a 3 stack of 8 elements each tri-band Yagis.
    Soon after MM0TFU in Scotland called in with a signal a bit better
    who I recall uses 400W to a 3 el Yagi. This was the loudest Ian has
    been this year after several 10M QSOs. Around 0040 UTC, I worked
    WA2OOO on Long Island, NY less than 300 miles away with a strong
    signal as well as VO1VXC, Newfoundland."

    From Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW earlier in the week:

    https://youtu.be/PWIb1g-Jy18

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for July 15 through 21, 2021 were 22, 35, 53, 42,
    45, 59, and 86, with a mean of 48.9. 10.7 cm flux was 73.5, 75,
    77.4, 80.4, 82.6, 87, and 93.5, with a mean of 81.3. Estimated
    planetary A indices were 10, 4, 4, 4, 7, 10, and 6, with a mean of
    6.4. Middle latitude A index was 12, 5, 4, 5, 4, 9, and 6, with a
    mean of 6.4.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Aug 6 20:51:32 2021
    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP032
    ARLP032 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP32
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 32 ARLP032
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA August 6, 2021
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP032
    ARLP032 Propagation de K7RA

    During this reporting week (July 29 through August 4) solar activity
    dropped into a sharp decline.

    Sunspots were gone on July 28 through August 1, so average daily
    sunspot number dropped from 33.1 in last week's bulletin to 6 this
    week.

    Average daily solar flux went from 83 to 74.8.

    Predicted solar flux is 74 and 73 on August 6 and 7, 75 on August 8
    to 10, 74 on August 11 and 12, 75 on August 3 to 14, 76 on August 15
    and 16, 75 and 74 on August 17 and 18, 72 on August 19 to 31, 74 on
    September 1, and 75 on September 2 to 10.

    Predicted planetary A index is 12, 8 and 8 on August 6 to 8, then 5,
    10 and 8 on August 9 to 11, 5 on August 12 to 15, then 10, 8 and 8
    on August 16 to 18, 5 on August 19 to 22, then 8, 12 and 8 on August
    23 to 25, 5 on August 26 to 31, then 12 and 10 on September 1 and 2,
    and 5 on September 3 to 11.

    "Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period August 6 to 31, 2021

    Geomagnetic field will be
    Quiet on August 12 and 13, 20 and 21, 23, 28
    Quiet to unsettled on August 7 to 9, 14, 19, 22, 25 to 27, 31
    Quiet to active on August 6, 11, 15 to 18, 29 and 30
    Unsettled to active August 10, 24
    Active to disturbed Nothing predicted

    Remarks:

    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
    - Next Thursday, on August 12th, I will not compile a forecast of
    the Earth's magnetic field activity, because I will climb the
    highest mountains of my country again. But without the convenience
    of civilization as a computer. F. K. Janda, OK1HH"

    Jon Jones, N0JK wrote:

    "There was a 2 Meter sporadic-E opening August 4.

    Ron, WZ1V (FN31) reported to me that he worked KA9CFD (EN40), K0TPP
    (EM48) and W5LDA (EM15) around 2225z on FT8 via Es. He said KA9CFD
    was loud.

    2 Meter Es is very rare in the month of August.

    The last week of July there was a strong tropospheric opening on 2
    Meters from northeast Kansas. I worked as far as KE8FD (EN80) and
    W3CP (EM74) on 2 Meter FT8. I had a psk flag on 2 Meters from W3IP
    (FM19) over 1,500 kilometers away.

    The Perseids Meteor shower is building in intensity with people now
    making morning MSK144 contacts on 2 Meters. The peak is the night
    of August 11 and morning August 12.

    More information here:

    https://www.imo.net/viewing-the-perseid-meteor-shower-in-2021/ "

    Ken Brown, N4SO on Alabama's Gulf Coast reports:

    "On July 30, the EISN sunspot number was 0, and July 31 just above
    0.

    https://wwwbis.sidc.be/silso/eisnplot

    Based on EISN, Estimated International Sunspot Number and I was
    still able to log VE3TEN, KA3JOE and W2DLL in CANADA, PA and NY,
    nearly a straight line to the North East.

    On July 31, I was still able to log K6FRC/B at 1454 UTC. Weak but
    readable 339 RST.

    On August 1, at 0400 UTC, 11 PM local I had that long list starting
    with N9TNY, W8EH, WA2SFT, WI4L, and K4JEE, in order EN51, EM79,
    EM76, EM74, and EM78. Straight line North and Northeast."

    From multiple sources:

    "What follows is the text from a News Release from the High Altitude Observatory in Colorado regarding the revision of their Solar Cycle
    25 Predictions. The parts about Radio Propagation and the
    progression of Solar Cycle 24 are my own.

    News Release - A revised prediction from the NASA High Altitude
    Observatory based at the University Of Colorado. NASA
    Heliophysicists have released a revised prediction for Solar Cycle
    25. The report generated by Ricky Egeland a Solar Physicist working
    in the NASA Space Radiation Analysis Group now calls for the peak of
    Solar Cycle 25 to top out at a value of 195 +/- 17 based upon the
    new scale for calculating Smoothed Sunspot Number. For reference
    Solar Cycle 21 peaked at an SSN 233 (new scale) while Solar Cycle 23
    peaked at an SSN of 180 (new scale).

    If this prediction holds up Ham Radio will see Excellent Worldwide F
    Layer Conditions on 10 Meters for several years around Solar Max. 6
    Meters conditions should be good in the Equinox Periods before and
    after Solar Max with consistent openings on Medium Haul Polar
    Routes. 6 Meter routes traversing the equator should experience
    consistent openings +/- 9 months from Solar Max."

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for July 29 through August 4, 2021 were 0, 0, 0, 0,
    13, 15, and 14, with a mean of 6. 10.7 cm flux was 75.8, 75.5,
    75.9, 74.9, 74.6, 75.9, and 70.8, with a mean of 74.8. Estimated
    planetary A indices were 8, 6, 6, 4, 17, 10, and 5, with a mean of
    8. Middle latitude A index was 12, 6, 6, 4, 13, 15, and 5, with a
    mean of 8.7.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Aug 13 18:07:59 2021
    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP033
    ARLP033 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP33
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 33 ARLP033
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA August 13, 2021
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP033
    ARLP033 Propagation de K7RA

    Solar activity continues to be very weak, and the latest 45-day
    outlook seems to indicate more of the same.

    Sunspots only appeared on three out of the seven days in our
    reporting week (August 5 to 11) and they were not consecutive.

    Average daily sunspot numbers actually rose a little, from 6 to 9.9.
    Average daily solar flux softened from 74.8 to 73.7. Average daily
    planetary A index went from 8 to 6.3, while middle latitude averages
    were 7, down from 8.7 last week.

    Predicted solar flux over the next few weeks shows a predicted
    maximum of only 75 on just one day, September 11. The solar flux
    forecast from USAF and NOAA shows 73 on August 13 and 14, 72 on
    August 15 to 19, 73 on August 20, 74 on August 21 through September
    1, then 73, 72, 72, 74 and 74 on September 2 to 6, 73 on September 7
    to 10, 75 on September 11, 72 on September 12 to 15, 73 on September
    16, and 74 on September 17 and beyond.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8 on August 13 to 15, 5 on August 16
    to 22, 8 on August 15 and 16, 5 on August 17 to 22, then 8, 12 and 8
    on August 23 to 25, 5 on August 26 through September 1, then 8 and
    12, on September 2 and 3, then 8 on September 4 to 6, 5 on September
    7 to 11, then 12, 10, and 10 September 12 to 14, and 5 on September
    15 to 18.

    Strangely, the planetary A index for September 5 is listed as 58,
    which I was certain was an error. This outlier value was repeated
    in Thursday's forecast. Wednesday's prediction was done by Stover
    and Houseal and Thursday's was from Trost and Houseal. I have not
    checked earlier forecasts to see when this value first showed up.
    New forecasts appear daily at
    ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/

    OK1HH is gone for another week, so we present geo-forecasts from two
    of his colleagues:

    "Solar activity forecast for the period August 13-August 19, 2021

    Activity level: mostly very low
    X-ray background flux (1.0 to 8.0 A): in the range A3.5 to A7.0
    Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 70 to 75
    Events: class C (0 to 2/period), class M (0/period), class X
    (0/period), proton (0/period)
    Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 0 to 55

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period August 13 to 19,
    2021

    Quiet: August 13 to 16, 19
    Unsettled: August 16 to 18
    Active: possible August 16 and 17
    Minor storm: 0
    Major storm: 0
    Severe storm: 0

    Geomagnetic activity summary:
    Next week, we expect quiet to unsettled conditions generally. Till
    the next Sunday, August 15, we expect the quiet to unsettled level
    closer to the lower level.

    Since Monday, August 16, more unsettled conditions are possible.
    Between Monday, August 16, and Wednesday, August 18, more unsettled
    conditions are probable. Within this interval, an isolated active
    event is also possible."

    Interesting item from Southgate Amateur Radio News:

    https://bit.ly/3sd5LNr

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for August 5 through August 11, 2021 were 36, 0, 0,
    11, 0, 0, and 22, with a mean of 9.9. 10.7 cm flux was 74.3, 74.4,
    73.7, 73.5, 73, 73.3, and 73.8, with a mean of 73.7. Estimated
    planetary A indices were 3, 7, 11, 5, 5, 7, and 6, with a mean of
    6.3. Middle latitude A index was 3, 9, 9, 6, 6, 9, and 7, with a
    mean of 7.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Aug 27 20:22:10 2021
    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP035
    ARLP035 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP35
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 35 ARLP035
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA August 27, 2021
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP035
    ARLP035 Propagation de K7RA

    Sun watchers saw no days without sunspots this week. Average daily
    sunspot numbers rose from 17.7 last week to 21.7 this reporting
    week, August 19 through 25.

    Average daily solar flux increased from 73.8 to 78.5.

    Geomagnetic indicators were quiet, with average daily planetary A
    index declining from 6.1 to 4.7, and average daily middle latitude A
    index dropping from 7.6 to 5.7.

    We are less than one month away from the Northern Hemisphere
    autumnal equinox, on Wednesday, September 22, 2021. Both
    hemispheres will be bathed in equal measures of solar radiation,
    always a positive for HF propagation.

    Predicted solar flux is 90 on August 27 to September 2, 85 on
    September 3, 73 on September 4 to 11, 74 on September 12 to 15, 76
    on September 16 to 18, 77 on September 19 and 20, 76 on September
    21, 75 on September 22 to 29 and 73 on September 30 through October
    8.

    Predicted planetary A index is 16, 12, 10 and 8 on August 27 to 30,
    5 on August 31 through September 1, 8 and 12 on September 2 and 3, 5
    on September 4 to 10, then 10 and 8 on September 11 and 12, 5 on
    September 13 to 18, 8 on September 19 and 20, 15 and 10 on September
    21 and 22, 7 on September 23 and 24, 5 on September 25 to 28, then 8
    and 12 on September 29 and 30 and 5 through the first week in
    October.

    I find it encouraging that the above solar flux forecast from USAF
    and NOAA was revised upward over the past few days, and that the
    sunspot number (47) on Thursday, August 26 was much higher than the
    average daily sunspot number (21.7) over the previous seven days.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period August 27 til September
    21, 2021 from F. K. Janda, OK1HH.

    "Geomagnetic field will be
    Quiet on September 1, 5, 10, 14 to 18
    Quiet to unsettled August 28, 31, September 2 to 4, 6 to 9, 19 and 20
    Quiet to active on August 29 and 30, September 11 to 13, 21
    Unsettled to active August (27)
    Active to disturbed, Nothing predicted

    Remarks:
    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement."

    At 0839 UTC on August 26 the Australian Space Forecast Centre issued
    a geomagnetic warning. "A weak slow moving CME associated with a
    disappearing solar filament on 23 August may have a glancing impact
    at Earth late on the UT day of the 26th or into 27th August. Mildly
    elevated geomagnetic activity may occur following the impact.
    Another weak slow moving CME observed occurring towards the middle
    of the UT day on 24 August appears to be primarily eastward,
    although there is a chance it may also have a glancing impact at
    Earth during the 27th August, potentially resulting in mildly
    elevated geomagnetic activity."

    Darrell Emerson, AA7FV wrote:

    "I have a question about a possible 17m propagation anomaly between
    my location (AA7FV in Tucson AZ, DM42pg, 32.3N 110.7 W) and the
    NCDXF beacon W6WX (CM97ae). According to QRZ.com, W6WX is at a
    bearing of 301 degrees, and a distance of 1158 km from AA7FV.
    Sunset at W6WX is 02:49 UTC, and sunset at AA7FV is 01:58 UTC.

    I have been using the program 'Faros' to look at the propagation
    times from various NCDXF beacons. As I'm sure you know, the NCDXF
    beacons are time synchronized using GPS, and so by looking at the
    arrival times of transmissions from a given beacon, it is easily
    possible to distinguish between short path and long path
    propagation. This is what the program Faros does.

    As a check, here is data taken at the same time with the same setup
    on the beacon ZL6B, which shows no anomaly. You can see that I was
    receiving the beacon from about 0h UTC until about 04:30 UTC. The
    propagation delays (blue dots) line up precisely with the delay
    (about 39 ms) expected for short path propagation, which is marked
    by the horizontal dashed line labeled 'SP'. No surprise here. The
    expected long path delay would be nearly 100 ms, but there are no
    signals observed with that delay, during this time period."

    Darrell sent graphics which I am unable to reproduce in this
    bulletin, but you could email him via his address on QRZ.com if you
    want copies.

    I referred his quesion to Carl, K9LA, who responded:

    "Thanks for those interesting plots from Faros.

    ZL6B sunrise is around 1906 UTC, so I would have expected that you'd
    see him again later in the day (a bit after 1906 UTC). But perhaps
    the MUF wasn't high enough at that time. Or something else was going
    on. Dropping out around 0430 UTC is understandable, as your sunet is
    around 0200 UTC and the MUF was slowly dropping until ZL6B (still in
    daylight) went away around 0430 UTC.

    As for the W6WX results, being only 1158 km from you says a
    relatively high elevation angle would be required on the true great
    circle path. And that says the MUF over that path would not likely
    be high enough for normal refraction at a high elevation angle on 18
    MHz (since we're just starting to come out of solar minimum). So
    your comment about an unusual ionized cloud (or an enhanced area in
    the ionosphere) is a possible explanation.

    The 20 msec or so delay suggests an off-great circle path from an
    enhanced area of ionization. And my guess is that this area was
    south of you and W6WX as that puts it closer to the equatorial
    ionosphere, where more interesting short-term events happen than
    north of your location. It's too bad that the azimuth arrival angle
    isn't measured."

    If you're interested in some more Faros results, check out https://k9la.us/Aug17_Long_Path-Short_Path_Switching_on_15-Meters_Part_1.pdf and https://k9la.us/Sep17_Long_Path-Short_Path_Switching_on_15-Meters_Part_2.pdf

    By the way, Carl says he accidentally deleted an email from someone
    named Edgar in Toronto who had questions about VOACAP, and now he
    has no way to respond. If you are Edgar, please contact K9LA.

    Ken Brown, N4SO (EM50tk) in Alabama reported hearing the XE1FAS/B
    beacon on 28.171 MHz at 0542 UTC (12:42 AM local time) on August 26.
    "Just above the noise and then faded out." The path distance was
    1,001 miles.

    Reader K6HPX has some fascinating antenna photos on his QRZ.com
    profile. Check it out.

    The latest from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/jJgxa0SMojE

    You can always find her new videos here:

    https://www.spaceweatherwoman.com/forecasts/

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for August 19 through 25, 2021 were 25, 14, 25, 16,
    14, 29, and 29, with a mean of 21.7. 10.7 cm flux was 74.9, 77.7,
    77.1, 77.1, 78.1, 80.9, and 83.6, with a mean of 78.5. Estimated
    planetary A indices were 4, 5, 3, 3, 4, 5, and 9, with a mean of 4.7
    Middle latitude A index was 5, 6, 4, 4, 8, 5, and 8, with a mean of
    5.7.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Sep 3 17:39:29 2021
    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP036
    ARLP036 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP36
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 36 ARLP036
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA September 3, 2021
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP036
    ARLP036 Propagation de K7RA

    Solar activity is on the upswing this week. Average daily sunspot
    numbers increased from 21.7 to 50.6, with a high of 77 last
    Saturday, August 28. Average daily solar flux rose from 78.5 to 88.

    Average daily planetary A index increased from 4.7 to 9.6, and
    average daily middle latitude A index went from 5.7 to 10.7.
    Geomagnetic activity peaked on August 27 and 28 due to a coronal
    mass ejection.

    New sunspot regions appeared on August 26 and 27, and on September 2 Spaceweather.com reported "New Sunspot, Rapidly Growing" to announce
    the emergence of AR2863.

    Predicted solar flux looks promising, particularly after
    mid-September, at 85 and 82 on September 3 and 4, 80 on September 5
    and 6, 78 on September 7, 75 on September 8 to 10, 80 on September
    11 to 14, 85 on September 15, 90 on September 16 to 30, 85 on
    October 1, and 80 on October 2 to 10. Flux values rise to 90 again
    after October 12 in this forecast from September 2.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8, 5, 10 and 8 on September 3 to 6, 5
    on September 7 to 10, then 10 and 8 on September 11 and 12, 5 on
    September 13 to 20, 8 on September 21, 5 on September 22 to 25, then
    a big jump to 25, 8, 18, 8, and 12 on September 26 to 30, and back
    to 5 on October 1 to 7, then 10 and 8 on October 8 and 9.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period September 3 to 29,
    2021, from F. K. Janda, OK1HH.

    "Geomagnetic field will be
    Quiet on September 7 and 8, 10, 14 and 15, 17 and 18, 28 and 29
    Quiet to unsettled on September 4 and 5, 13, 16, 19, 22, 25, 27
    Quiet to active on September 3, 6, 9, 11 and 12, 20 and 21, 26
    Unsettled to active on September 23 and (- 24)
    Active to disturbed, nothing predicted

    Remarks:
    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
    - The situation is confusing, the configuration of active regions
    and coronal holes is variable, so this time it is not possible to
    make a so-so reliable forecast. Here and there it happens before
    solar activity rises.
    - F. K. Janda will travel next week, therefore next forecast will be
    compiled on September 16."

    The autumnal equinox will be on Wednesday, September 22 in the
    Northern Hemisphere, always a welcome event for HF propagation.
    Solar flux is forecast to be higher at that time, also a good sign.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive- propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for August 26 through September 1, 2021 were 47, 73,
    77, 44, 41, 37, and 35, with a mean of 50.6. 10.7 cm flux was 88.6,
    89.5, 89.9, 88.7, 90.6, 84.4, and 84.2, with a mean of 88.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 20, 14, 8, 7, 7, and 5, with a
    mean of 9.6. Middle latitude A index was 6, 19, 17, 9, 9, 9, and 6,
    with a mean of 10.7.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Sep 10 20:17:22 2021
    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP037
    ARLP037 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP37
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 37 ARLP037
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA September 10, 2021
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP037
    ARLP037 Propagation de K7RA

    Sunspot activity increased dramatically this week.

    Sunspot numbers (when looking at only the activity during our
    Thursday through Wednesday reporting week) peaked at 87 on
    Wednesday, September 8 and the day before, solar flux peaked at
    101.2.

    Average daily sunspot numbers rose 14, to 64.6, while average daily
    solar flux increased from 88 to 92.9. New sunspots appeared on
    September 2, again on September 3, and three more new sunspot groups
    arrived on September 4. Another new one appeared on September 8,
    and on that day the total sunspot area was 1000 micro-hemispheres.

    On September 9 I was shocked to see the daily sunspot number at 124
    and total sunspot area hit 1030 micro-hemispheres. I'm not certain,
    but it looks like we have not seen activity like this in nearly six
    years, when the daily sunspot number was 125 on September 29, 2015.

    We saw similar large total sunspot area numbers last November 25 and
    26, 1180 and 1020 micro-hemispheres. Sunspot numbers were 40 and 43
    on those days, but a few days later on November 29 the sunspot
    number rose to 84.

    Both the daily planetary and middle latitude A index reached a high
    of 14 on September 8. The averages were 7 and 7.7, down from 9.6
    and 10.7 in last week's planetary and middle latitude readings.

    Predicted solar flux seems quite promising, at 100 on September 10
    and 11, 98 on September 12 and 13, 95 on September 14 to 17, 85 on
    September 18, 88 on September 19 to 23, 90 on September 24 to 28, 88
    on September 29 through October 1, 86 on October 2, 90 on October 3
    to 6, 92 and 90 on October 7 and 8, and 85 on October 9 to 15. Flux
    values are expected to rise to 90 again after October 20.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5, 8 and 8 on September 10 to 12, 5
    on September 13 to 20, 8 on September 21, 5 on September 22 through
    October 1, then 8 again on October 2 and 3, and 5 on October 4 to
    17.

    On Sunday September 5, Spaceweather.com reported ''For most of the
    past three years, the sun has been absolutely blank. Today the sun
    has six sunspot groups. They're popping up all over the solar
    disk.''

    ''The sudden profusion of so many sunspots is a sign of strength for
    young Solar Cycle 25. The solar cycle is actually running ahead of
    schedule. NOAA and NASA predicted that it will peak in the year
    2025. Outbreaks like this one support the idea that Solar Max could
    come a year early.''

    On September 8 Spaceweather.com reported a shortwave blackout over
    the Pacific Rim caused by a CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) on September
    8 at 1736 UTC.

    Here is Tamitha Skov's recent forecast, although by now it is a bit
    out of date:

    https://youtu.be/EndF67TGlnY

    An interesting article about recent solar activity, but it is
    plagued with many popups:

    https://bit.ly/396UGFf

    Recently in this bulletin we mentioned the US Postal Service issuing
    stamps with solar images. Here is an article from June which gives
    much more detail on the creation of the stamps:
    https://bit.ly/3yRtlkx

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for September 2 through 8, 2021 were 33, 33, 68, 66,
    80, 85, and 87, with a mean of 64.6. 10.7 cm flux was 85.8, 83.8,
    86.5, 93.3, 99.5, 101.2, and 100.4, with a mean of 92.9. Estimated
    planetary A indices were 4, 6, 5, 6, 6, 8, and 14, with a mean of 7.
    Middle latitude A index was 3, 6, 5, 8, 8, 10, and 14, with a mean
    of 7.7.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Sat Sep 18 09:57:02 2021
    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP038
    ARLP038 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP38
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 38 ARLP038
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA September 17, 2021
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP038
    ARLP038 Propagation de K7RA

    On this reporting week, September 9-15, sunspot numbers started
    strong at 124 but ended at 0. Average daily sunspot numbers went
    from 64.6 to 58.3. Average daily solar flux declined from 92.9 to
    87.4.

    Geomagnetic indicators remained moderate, with last week's average
    daily planetary A index unchanged at 7, and average daily middle
    latitude A index changed from 7.7 to 6.9.

    Predicted solar flux is much lower than last week's bulletin
    reported. Solar flux is predicted at 75 on September 17-23, 76 on
    September 24-26, 78, 80 and 82 on September 27-29, 86 on September
    30 through October 10, 82 on October 11-12, 80 on October 13, 78 on
    October 14-17, and 76 on October 18-23. Solar flux is expected to
    rise to 89 by the end of October.

    Predicted planetary A index is 15 on September 17-18, 8 on September
    19-20, then 5 and 8 on September 21-22, 5 on September 23 through
    October 3, then 8 and 12 on October 4-5, and 5 on October 6-17, 8 on
    October 18, and 5 on October 19 through the end of the month.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period September 17 to October
    12, 2021 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

    "Geomagnetic field will be:
    quiet on: September 19, 29-30, October 9-10,
    quiet to unsettled on: September 20, 28, October 1, 4, 7, 12,
    quiet to active on: September 17-18, 22-23, 25-27, October 3, 8, 11,
    unsettled to active on: September 21, 24, October (2,) 5-6,
    Active to disturbed: Nothing predicted.

    "Solar wind will intensify on October 11.

    "Remarks:
    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
    - The confusing situation mentioned two weeks ago, together
    with the variable configuration of active areas and coronal
    holes, was a sign of the subsequent increase in solar activity."

    Marty, KB0QZ in Tulsa was tuning 10 meters at noon on Sunday,
    September 12 and heard no signals, not even any propagation beacons.
    He called CQ on 28.040 MHz CW and received a 599 report from LU4HK,
    who was also S9. The path distance was 5,094 miles. He continued to
    tune the band and call CQ through the afternoon with nothing else
    heard.

    Page down in this article, https://bit.ly/3Ch98XD, "Nevada County
    Captures: Glorious sunrise" and page down for a great solar image in
    a local California newspaper.

    Go to your favorite search engine and enter this text:

    mdpi: sunspot number and photon flux data

    An interesting PDF is available for download.

    At 2000 UTC on September 13 I (K7RA) called CQ on 15 meters with FT8
    from my station in Seattle at CN87uq using a marginal end fed wire
    antenna, about .72 wavelength long, partially indoors.

    Typically I would see the map at pskreporter.info light up with many
    stations reporting my signal. But at that time only one station,
    WA1SXK in North Carolina (EM95lf) heard me, reporting -19 dB, and
    this continued through many attempts.

    I switched to 17 meters and saw typical reports from stations in the
    Midwest and East coast, 1500-2400 miles out.

    Checked for flare activity and anything else unusual, but saw
    nothing. But solar flux and sunspot numbers were declining, after
    reaching a high several days earlier. Perhaps the MUF for this path
    at that time was below 15 meters.

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
    please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net .

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
    an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for September 9 through 15, 2021 were 124, 99, 93,
    47, 32, 13, and 0, with a mean of 58.3. 10.7 cm flux was 99.7, 96.3,
    91.8, 87.7, 83.3, 78.1, and 75.2, with a mean of 87.4. Estimated
    planetary A indices were 6, 9, 7, 6, 9, 6, and 6, with a mean of 7.
    Middle latitude A index was 7, 9, 8, 6, 7, 5, and 6, with a mean of
    6.9.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Oct 15 17:03:52 2021
    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP042
    ARLP042 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP42
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 42 ARLP042
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA October 15, 2021
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP042
    ARLP042 Propagation de K7RA

    Although we saw sunspots on every day of this reporting week
    (October 7-13), solar activity declined somewhat. Average daily
    sunspot numbers went from 30.7 to 23.7, and average daily solar flux
    from 86.9 to 85.6. Geomagnetic indicators were higher, with average
    daily planetary A index rising from 8.1 to 12.4, and average daily
    middle latitude A index from 6.7 to 10.1.

    On Saturday, October 9, Spaceweather.com reported a strong
    Earth-directed M1.6 class solar flare and CME erupting at 0640 UTC,
    causing a shortwave radio blackout over the Indian Ocean. This
    caused the planetary A index on October 12 to hit 45, and Alaska's
    College A index to read 60.

    Predicted solar flux is 82 on October 15, 80 and 78 on October
    16-17, 76 on October 18-22, 85 on October 23-24, then 90, 100, 95
    and 90 on October 25-28, 88 on October 29-30, 85 on October 31
    through November 5, 88 on November 6, 85 on November 7-13, 88 on
    November 14-15, 90 on November 16, 88 on November 17-18, and back to
    100 on November 22.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8 on October 15-16, 5 on October 17,
    12 on October 18-19, 8 on October 20, 5 on October 21-24, 10 on
    October 25, 5 on October 26 to November 1, 8 on November 2, 5 on
    November 3-5, 10 on November 6-7, 8 on November 8-9, 5 on November
    10-12, then 10, 12, 12, 10 and 8 on November 13-17, and 5 on
    November 18-20, then 10 on November 21, and 5 through the end of the
    month.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period October 15 to November
    09, 2021 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    "Geomagnetic field will be:
    quiet on: October 16-17, November 3, 5,
    quiet to unsettled on: October 20-22, 24, 26-27, 30-31, November 4,
    quiet to active on: October 23, 25, November 6,
    unsettled to active on: October (15, 18-19, 28-29,) November (1-2,) 7-9,
    Active to disturbed: Nothing predicted.

    "Solar wind will intensify on October (19, 22, 25,) 27-31, November
    1, 9.

    "Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement."

    On October 12, Spaceweather.com reported in an email alert: "Last
    night, a coronal mass ejection (CME) struck Earth's magnetic field,
    sparking a moderately strong geomagnetic storm. Auroras were sighted
    in the USA as far south as Nebraska with lights so bright in some
    places that onlookers successfully photographed them using cell
    phones."

    The November 2021 issue of QST arrived, and the article on page 70, "Propagation Tools and Resources for Contesting" by WO1N, KC2G and
    members of the Yankee Clipper Contest Club, shares some great
    resources, not only of interest to contest operators.

    Here's an interesting article on 60 meters propagation:

    https://bit.ly/2YNlHLN

    The latest video report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/XrPW4337IHI

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
    please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net .

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service web page at, at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.
    For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for October 7 through 13, 2021 were 13, 13, 14, 38,
    35, 26, and 27, with a mean of 23.7. 10.7 cm flux was 85.7, 92.4,
    81, 84.5, 88.5, 83.5, and 83.5, with a mean of 85.6. Estimated
    planetary A indices were 5, 4, 5, 9, 13, 45, and 6, with a mean of
    12.4. Middle latitude A index was 3, 3, 4, 9, 15, 32, and 5, with a
    mean of 10.1.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Oct 22 13:40:36 2021
    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP043
    ARLP043 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP43
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 43 ARLP043
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA October 22, 2021
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP043
    ARLP043 Propagation de K7RA

    Solar activity declined last week, and on one day (October 17) there
    were no sunspots at all. Most days this week had the minimum
    non-zero sunspot number, which is 11, indicating a single sunspot
    group containing a single sunspot.

    Average daily sunspot number declined from 23.7 to 11.3, and average
    daily solar flux dropped seven points from 85.6 to 78.6.

    Geomagnetic indicators were quiet, with average planetary A index
    declining from 12.4 to 8.4, and average middle latitude A index from
    10.1 to 5.4. No middle latitude A index was available for October
    16-18, so middle latitude A index figures presented at the bottom of
    this bulletin are uneducated guesses on my part.

    Despite the lower activity, I noticed frequent 10 and 12 meter
    openings here at my location in Seattle, via FT8 mode.

    Predicted solar flux appears lower too, with values at 82 and 83 on
    October 22-23, 84 on October 24-25, 85 on October 26-29, 88 on
    October 30, 85 on October 31 through November 11, 80 on November
    12-20, then 85, 90, 95 and 90 on November 21-24, 88 on November
    25-26, and 85 through the end of the month.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8 on October 22, 5 on October 23
    through November 1, 8 on November 2, 5 on November 3-5, then 12, 10
    and 8 on November 6-8, 5 on November 9-13, 12 on November 14-15, 8
    on November 16-18, 5 on November 19-20, 10 on November 21, 5 on
    November 22-28 and 8 on November 29.

    Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for October 22 - November
    16 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    "Geomagnetic field will be:
    quiet on: October 27, November 3-5,
    quiet to unsettled on: October 22-24, 26, 30-31, November 9,
    quiet to active on: October 25, November 1, 6, 10-13,
    unsettled to active on: October (28-29,) November (2,) 7-8, 14-16,
    Active to disturbed: Nothing predicted.

    "Solar wind will intensify on October (22, 25,) 27-31, November 1,
    (8,) 9-10, (11).

    "Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement."

    On October 21 WB8VLC in Salem, Oregon, as well as posts on the
    Western Washington DX Club email list noted strong S-9 SSB signals
    on 15 meters from J5T in Guinea-Bissau.

    He sent an extensive list of contacts, and said, "10, 12 and 15
    meters have sounded like 20 meter phone for the past month, and not
    listed are many 10 and 12 meter QSOs on SSB to South America and the
    Pacific that I haven't included.

    "Antennas all home made: 10 meter 4el Yagi at 30 feet and dual band
    12/15 Moxon at 23 feet, on 17 I use my 15/12 Moxon loaded. All QSOs
    use 400 to 500 watts with home made LDMOS amp and K3S."

    A short list of a few of his contacts, all times in UTC:

    2021-10-19 1517 FY5KE 10m 28.019 CW French Guiana
    2021-10-18 0032 3D2AG 12m 24.907 CW Fiji
    2021-10-18 0016 3D2AG 10m 28.029 CW Fiji
    2021-10-17 2143 E51JD 10m 28.430 SSB South Cook Islands

    Notes:
    FY5KE - I hear him every week on 10 CW or 10 SSB since Sept 2021.
    3D2AG - Antoine and I start on 10 CW then we move to 12 CW most weekends
    3D2AG - ANTOINE has been on every night for the past week on 10 and 12.
    CW since mid September.
    E51JD - Jim has been on every week on 10 SSB since about early September.

    N0JK in Kansas wrote: "The afternoon of October 18 sporadic-E
    appeared over the east coast of North America. This allowed suitably
    located stations in W3 such as NZ3M to make sporadic-E TEP contacts
    to Argentina.

    "The Es continued after sundown.

    "In eastern Kansas, I found 6 Meters wide open after returning from
    dinner with my XYL at 0010 UTC October 19. I made over a dozen FT8
    contacts to W1, W2, W3, W4 and VE3. Best DX was WW1L in FN54 at over
    1400 miles.

    "Today October 21 is the peak of the Orionid Meteor Shower. I set up
    portable and was able to work N0LL/P in rare grid DN80 at 1142 UTC
    on 6 Meter meteor scatter using MSK144.

    "Larry Lambert, N0LL is operating portable from rare grid DN80
    during the Orionid Meteor shower on 6 Meters to help Fred Fish
    Memorial Award (FFMA) enthusiasts log a new one.

    "He had a strong sporadic-E opening on 6 Meters October 20, making
    contacts from VE2 across the eastern states around 1600 UTC, then
    west to California. His operation was planned to be primarily meteor
    scatter, but rare October sporadic-E let many stations work a rare
    grid square."

    Yet another article concerning big solar activity and monster
    flares:

    https://bigthink.com/starts-with-a-bang/giant-solar-flare/

    I like to check the STEREO mission for upcoming activity. I look out
    for the big white splotchy images just over the eastern solar
    horizon, which is on the left:

    https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov

    On October 21 Spaceweather.com noted: "A new sunspot group is
    emerging over the Sun's southeastern limb. It is crackling with
    activity."

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
    please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net .

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
    an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for October 14 through 20, 2021 were 24, 11, 11, 0,
    11, 11, and 11, with a mean of 11.3. 10.7 cm flux was 83.4, 84,
    77.6, 77.4, 75.9, 76, and 75.9, with a mean of 78.6. Estimated
    planetary A indices were 7, 6, 6, 10, 10, 14, and 6, with a mean of
    8.4. Middle latitude A index was 6, 4, 3, 5, 6, 9, and 5, with a
    mean of 5.4.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Nov 5 15:23:08 2021
    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP045
    ARLP045 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP45
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 45 ARLP045
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA November 5, 2021
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP045
    ARLP045 Propagation de K7RA

    Sunspot numbers and solar flux index were both declining by the end
    of our reporting week (October 28 through November 3), but averages
    for both numbers were higher than reported in last week's
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP044.

    Average daily sunspot number increased from 54.9 to 67.6, while
    average daily solar flux jumped from 95.7 to 102.

    CME activity through the week drove geomagnetic numbers much higher.
    Average daily planetary A index increased from 4.4 to 12, and
    average daily middle latitude A index went from 3.6 to 9. On
    November 4 the planetary A index was 69, and Alaska's College A
    index was 131!

    Spaceweather.com reported a "cannibal CME" struck Earth at 2000 UTC
    on November 3, and that this would spark a strong geomagnetic storm,
    and boy, did it ever! With aurora observed in United States down
    below the northern tier states, it had a pronounced negative effect
    on HF propagation the following day. For a time on Thursday testing
    propagation paths using FT8 and pskreporter, I could see no
    propagation above 20 meters.

    More on that CME:

    https://bit.ly/3BNPhyL

    At 0326 UTC on November 5 the Australian Space Forecast Centre noted
    that although conditions have quieted down, a southward turn of the interplanetary magnetic field may cause another increase in
    geomagnetic activity.

    I received several reports this week that "10 meters is back!"

    Jon Jones, N0JK in Kansas noted on November 4:

    "No (VHF) enhancement in KS from the CME impact yet.

    "Last weekend in the CQ WW SSB contest, 10 meters was open both
    days. I logged HD8R Galapagos Islands, and other stations using 5
    watts and mobile antenna. Best DX D4F.

    "ZF5T was very loud Sunday afternoon around 2015 UTC on 10 Meters."

    According to a prediction issued by NOAA at 2118 UTC on November 4,
    predicted solar flux is 90 on November 5, 85 on November 6-7, 80 on
    November 8-12, 88 on November 13-14, 89 on November 15, 92 on
    November 16-19, 93 on November 20, 95 on November 21-27, then
    jumping to 103, 102, 100 and 98 on November 28 through December 1,
    96 on December 2-4, then 92 and 90 on December 5-6, then 88 on
    December 7-11, 89 on December 12 and 92 on December 13-16.

    Predicted planetary A index is 18, 15, and 8 on November 5-7, 5 on
    November 8-14, then 10 and 8 on November 15-16, 5 on November 17-29,
    8 on November 30 through December 1, 5 on December 2, then 12, 10
    and 8 on December 3-5, then 5 on December 6-11, and 8 on December
    12-13.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period November 5 to December
    1, 2021 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    "Geomagnetic field will be:
    quiet on: 18-19, 23, 25
    quiet to unsettled on: November 9, 12-13, 17, 20, 22, 24
    quiet to active on: November 5, 10-11, 21, 26-27
    unsettled to active on: November 6-8, 14, 16, 28
    Active to disturbed: November (15, 29,) 30, December 1

    "Solar wind will intensify on November (8,) 9-10, (11,) 16-17,
    (29-30), December (1-2,) 3-4.

    "Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement."

    A report from Southgate Amateur Radio News:

    https://bit.ly/3bKUUmu

    From N8II:

    "It certainly has been a great past month. DXpeditions have resumed,
    quite a few to Africa and all of them worked on 12 and 10M. C5C, The
    Gambia is also active, and TL7M, Central African Republic heard on
    12M, 15M, and 20M CW. 7P8RU is a Russian group worked on 30M through
    10M CW and 17M and 12M SSB. Hearing Russia and Scandinavia on 15M
    has been nearly a daily occurrence. 12M has been open to EU daily
    for about the last 10 days. South America is in daily on 10M with
    best conditions around 1900-2000 UTC. 15M begins opening to EU
    around 1240 UTC.

    "1645 UTC most EU are gone now. 12M signals vary day to day with
    quite a few new countries going into the log such as Kuwait, Israel,
    Norway, Sweden, Finland, Faeroe Islands, Gibraltar, and Guernsey
    many on both SSB and CW. CW countries on 12M now are 103 vs. about
    80 before September, 15M now 198, and 10M CW countries now 98.

    "There was a major solar storm forecast for the CQWW Phone contest
    October 30-31. When the K index peaked at 5 at 1500 UTC on the 31st,
    we were working loud Europeans from even northern EU. At the start
    of the contest I was on 20M and very strangely SA and Caribbean
    signals were way down with decent conditions to East Asia excluding
    Japan. I heard about 9 Chinese stations in just over the first hour
    putting 3 into the log including S9+20dB B0A from rare zone 23. I
    also heard the Philippines, worked RN0CT in Zone 19, 7Q6M Malawi,
    and D4L Cape Verde in first hour.

    "Saturday morning 15M was opening around 1120Z to EU. There were
    loud signals from all over EU, and Kazakhstan was heard. At 1329Z, I
    switched to 10M and found a few Europeans, first worked were
    Hungary, Slovenia, Italy, Ireland, and very loud E7AA in Bosnia. The
    opening was spotlight type to relatively small areas most in the
    Mediterranean (many from Sicily). EW5A in Belarus was the only
    northern EU logged at 1414 UTC for Zone 16.

    "Right around 1430 UTC, EU faded out. I worked A73A Qatar on a peak,
    and SA began to come through with signals poor at first with some
    good by 1450 UTC. Despite strong signals from Paraguay, Chile, and
    Argentina, Brazil was not found loud enough to work until 1725 UTC,
    then there were many through the afternoon until my 2210 UTC sunset.
    I was lucky to catch ZM4T New Zealand and VK4A right around sunset
    for Zones 32 and 30.

    "Sunday, I was not expecting much with the rising K index, but 15M
    sounded pretty normal and I logged my first EU EA1L Spain at 1228
    UTC on 10.

    "It was a struggle to work many stations because of better
    conditions for stations farther NE in NA. I caught 7P8RU in Lesotho
    at 1255 UTC. After a short break the 10M band blew wide open at 1339
    UTC with many calls from western EU, quite a few Dutch and German
    stations. TK5MH called from Corsica and 4U1A called from the Vienna International Center. Then gradually northern EU filled finding OH0V
    Aland Islands, and with calls from Lithuania, Sweden, Denmark,
    Estonia, Norway, and lastly Finland in the 1500 UTC hour.

    "The K index was 5 reported at 1500 UTC, very strange to be able to
    work so far north, possibly auroral Es. Most of EU finally faded by
    1656 UTC, quite an opening, the best of Solar Cycle 25 so far.

    "73, Jeff N8II Shepherdstown, WV FM19cj"

    From Mike May WB8VLC Salem Oregon:

    "During CQ WW SSB last weekend, 10 meters was sounding like nothing
    I have heard in 20 years with some Europe in the morning then the
    typical South America in the afternoon.

    "The evening of Saturday October 30 was the best Asia opening I have
    heard on 10 with 28.3 to 29 MHz filled with JA stations. The most
    interesting were the other Asian DX worked aside from Japan, VR2XAN
    in Hong Kong and DY1T in Philippines who were both in here for
    around 1 hour at 59 plus along with other big signals from Hawaii,
    New Zealand, Australia, Guam, Mariana Islands and even some weak
    China on 10 meters."

    Mike sent a long list of stations with S9 signals on 10 meter SSB,
    including Cape Verde, Guam, Portugal, Madeira, Galapagos and Brazil.
    "Even 10 FM was active!"

    From Angel Santana, WP3GW in Trujillo Alto, Puerto Rico:

    "10 meters was the surprise band on this weekend's contest. I always
    start on the band and rack up the South Americans, about 26 in an
    hour which is almost three-fold compared to last year. After working
    some on 15 meters at 1200 UTC, for an hour, wow 10 meters was
    teaming with life like 5 years ago! Worked a few Europeans in half
    an hour and went and go during the day, including an FR about 1433
    UTC.

    "It was not until Sunday morning that 10 got interesting, when I did
    work early E7AA (who worked only on 10 and my only Bosnia QSO). Then
    ZD7, 7P, OH0, 7Q, EA9, pretty easy with just low power. At 1930 UTC
    turned my antenna (manually) towards USA and called on 28.392 MHz:
    56 stations in an hour, 98% US.

    "Can't wait for the ARRL 10 Meter Contest 2021!"

    From Simon, GW0NVN:

    "Here at Finningley Amateur Radio Society G0GHK, we were shown what
    the Sun can do on Sunday 31st October. Switched to 10m during
    breakfast to hear a number of strong stations including VK6 having a
    rag chew and working a few European stations. Coming back to 10m in
    the afternoon, we had an over 1.5 hour pile up of W and VE
    stations."

    An exciting update from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW.

    https://youtu.be/xOKCsuqcYvo

    This weekend is ARRL CW Sweepstakes Contest.

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
    please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net .

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for October 28 through November 3, 2021 were 96, 82,
    76, 83, 53, 42, and 41, with a mean of 67.6. 10.7 cm flux was 111.7,
    108.4, 107.2, 102.7, 97.7, 97, and 89, with a mean of 102. Estimated
    planetary A indices were 3, 3, 10, 20, 10, 17, and 21, with a mean
    of 12. Middle latitude A index was 3, 2, 8, 16, 8, 12, and 14, with
    a mean of 9.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Nov 12 13:15:45 2021
    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP046
    ARLP046 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP46
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 46 ARLP046
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA November 12, 2021
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP046
    ARLP046 Propagation de K7RA

    Sunspot activity and solar flux dropped this reporting week
    (November 4-10), with the average daily sunspot number retreating
    from 67.6 to 36.4, and solar flux from 102 to 89.1. Geomagnetic
    indicators rose, average daily planetary A index from 12 to 18, and
    middle latitude values from 9 to 11.7.

    When the planetary and middle latitude A index were 69 and 42 on
    November 4, Alaska's College A index was a whopping 131. College K
    index peaked at 9 on that day. K index is logarithmic, so each point
    in the scale represents a big difference in activity. The A index is
    linear, and based upon the K index.

    The K index is reported every three hours, and the College K index
    on November 4 was 5, 5, 8, 9, 8, 5, 3 and 2. This was all caused by
    what Spaceweather.com called a "Cannibal CME," because it was a CME
    overtaken by a second larger and faster moving coronal mass
    ejection.

    At 1701 UTC on November 9 a CME eruption just over the Sun's western
    horizon emitted enough energy to cause a shortwave radio blackout,
    which is pictured here:

    https://www.spaceweather.com/images2021/09nov21/blackoutmap.jpg

    Predicted solar flux is 86 on November 12, 85 on November 13-16, 84
    on November 17, 83 on November 18-19, 90 on November 20, 95 on
    November 21-27, 90 on November 28-29, 85 on November 30 through
    December 2, 82 on December 3-4, 85 on December 5, 82 again on
    December 6-9, 80 on December 10-11, 85 on December 12, and 87 on
    December 13-15. Flux values may peak at around 95 on December 18-24.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on November 12-15, 8 on November
    16-17, 5 on November 18-27, then 10, 10 and 8 on November 28-30, 5
    on December 1-4, 8 on December 5, 5 on December 6-9, then 7, 7, 10
    and 8 on December 10-13, and 5 on December 14-24.

    F. K. Janda, OK1HH presents his geomagnetic activity forecast for
    the period November 12 to December 1, 2021.

    "Geomagnetic field will be:
    quiet on: 18-19, 23, 25,
    quiet to unsettled on: November 12-13, 17, 20, 22, 24,
    quiet to active on: November 21, 26-27,
    unsettled to active on: November 14, 16, 28,
    Active to disturbed: November (15, 29,) 30, December 1,

    "Solar wind will intensify on November 16-17, (29-30), December
    (1-2,) 3-4.

    "Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement."

    Don't know why I had not noticed this before:

    https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/10year/

    Unfortunately, only one of the two spacecraft remains, but it is
    still a very useful tool:

    https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/

    N0JK wrote from Kansas:

    "Good conditions on 17 meters Sunday afternoon November 7. I found
    the HD8R Galapagos Island DXpedition on 18.147 MHz SSB loud with few
    callers. Was able to work them easily with 5 watts and mobile whip
    at 2022 UTC. Sometimes a DXpedition is easier to work on the WARC
    bands."

    Early on November 12, Spaceweather.com reported all is quiet for
    now.

    "Space weather near Earth is calm, but the Sun is not quiet. This
    week, SOHO coronagraphs have observed multiple CMEs billowing over
    the western edge of the Sun. The source is a farside sunspot group,
    probably the same one that produced a strong M2-class solar flare on
    November 9th. Earth is not in the line of fire, for now."

    Another great video report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, the Space
    Weather Woman:

    https://youtu.be/QCXYJvSYjsc

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
    please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net .

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
    an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for November 4 through 10, 2021 were 28, 40, 41, 28,
    41, 40, and 37, with a mean of 36.4. 10.7 cm flux was 93.8, 92.8,
    82.1, 87.5, 88.3, 92, and 87.5, with a mean of 89.1. Estimated
    planetary A indices were 69, 13, 18, 6, 5, 7, and 8, with a mean of
    18. Middle latitude A index was 42, 9, 13, 4, 3, 6, and 5, with a
    mean of 11.7.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Nov 19 13:35:48 2021
    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP047
    ARLP047 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP47
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 47 ARLP047
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA November 19, 2021
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP047
    ARLP047 Propagation de K7RA

    New sunspots appeared on November 14 and 16, but solar activity was
    lower and geomagnetic activity as well.

    More recently, over November 16-18 the total sunspot area declined
    from 330, to 270 to only 40 millionths of a hemisphere, the lowest
    observed recently.

    Average daily sunspot numbers declined from 36.4 last week to 30.9
    in the recent reporting week, November 11-17.

    Solar flux averages were off as well, to 80.8 this week compared to
    89.1 in last week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP046.

    Average daily planetary A index declined from 18 to 7, and average
    middle latitude numbers went from 11.7 to 4.9. Middle latitude A
    index daily average went all the way down to 0 on November 13.

    We see no high numbers in the solar flux prediction, which has 80 on
    November 19-20, 82 on November 21-23, 86 on November 24-26, 85 on
    November 27, 83 on November 28-29, 85 on November 30 through
    December 2, 82 on December 3-11, then 79, 80 and 79 on December
    12-14, then 78, 77, 79 and 81 on December 15-18, 83 on December
    19-21, and 85 on December 22-24.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8, 12. 15 and 8 on November 19-22, 5
    on November 23-27, then 10, 10 and 8 on November 28-30, 5 on
    December 1-12, 12 on December 13-14, and back to 5 on December
    15-24, then 10 on December 25-26.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period November 19 to December
    15, 2021 from OK1HH.

    "Geomagnetic field will be:
    quiet on: 21, 24, December 5, 10, 12,
    quiet to unsettled on: November 19-20, 22-23, 25, December 9, 11,
    quiet to active on: November 28-30, December 2, 6, 8,
    unsettled to active on: November 26-27, December 3-4, 7, 15,
    Active to disturbed: December 1, (13-14),

    "Solar wind will intensify on November (29-30), December (1,) 2-4,
    14-15.

    "Remarks:
    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
    - An important notice will be issued next Thursday, i.e., November 25."

    WB8VLC reported from Salem, Oregon:

    "On Nov 13 on 10 meter CW at 2236 UTC I came across a loud CW
    station calling CQ, Nick, VK9DX on Norfolk Island.

    "After the usual reports and such of which Nick was a true 589 on
    CW, I listened to Nick for another 10 minutes calling CQ on 10
    meters after which he stopped after a couple more lucky hams caught
    him.

    "On a guess I checked out 12 and 15 meters to see if maybe the VK9
    would end up on one of these bands, and sure enough at 2307 UTC I
    found VK9DX finishing a QSO on 12 meter SSB with a real 58-9 signal
    and then we had a nice 10 minute or so SSB chat.

    "Nick runs a vertical dipole and nothing fancy antenna or power wise
    except for what looks to be a great take-off shot to North America
    which accounted for his true 589 on 10 CW and 58-9 on 12 SSB.

    "After 12 meters faded out, I went to 15 meters to see if he moved
    there but he wasn't to be found; however, I did find Stuie, VK8NSB
    in Darwin Australia calling CQ on CW with a great 589 signal into
    Oregon."

    Somehow, I missed this, but a few weeks ago KB1DK reported from
    Trumbull, Connecticut on November 1:

    "Here is my report for the 2021 CQWW SSB Contest:

    "After enjoying wide open band conditions on 15 meters Saturday, we
    experienced a solid 2 hour opening on 10 meters to CQ zones 14, 15,
    and 20 on Sunday morning starting at 1430 UTC here in Connecticut
    (FN31). I was able to log 108 contacts using just an inverted vee.
    Almost all signals were S8 and above, and the band was full of
    activity between 28.300 and 28.750. There was minimal fading during
    the opening and most of the stations were heard during the entire 2
    hour period. It was great to hear the words 'thanks for the fifth
    band' being exchanged on more than one occasion.

    "The only countries not heard were the Scandinavians, although I
    worked OX7A on a random visit to 10 meters on Saturday at 1620 UTC.
    The longest distances worked were to Greece and Israel. The best
    part of the contest weekend were the conditions on 10, 15 and 40
    meters and working 4 stations on all 5 bands."

    ARRL SSB Sweepstakes is this weekend, a very big and popular
    domestic radio contest. Check http://www.arrl.org/sweepstakes for
    details.

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
    please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net .

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
    an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for November 11 through 17, 2021 were 39, 39, 24,
    23, 23, 35, and 33, with a mean of 30.9. 10.7 cm flux was 84.5,
    82.9, 81, 78.7, 79.3, 80.1, and 79.2, with a mean of 80.8. Estimated
    planetary A indices were 4, 4, 3, 4, 9, 13, and 12, with a mean of
    7. Middle latitude A index was 3, 3, 0, 2, 6, 11, and 9, with a mean
    of 4.9.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Dec 3 16:49:38 2021
    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP049
    ARLP049 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP49
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 49 ARLP049
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA December 3, 2021
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP049
    ARLP049 Propagation de K7RA

    Solar activity was up this week. Average daily sunspot number
    increased from 26.9 to 46.1, and average daily solar flux was up
    10.8 points to 90.9. Geomagnetic indicators were a little higher.
    Average daily planetary A index increased from 7.9 to 8.7, and
    average daily middle latitude A index from 5.4 to 6.3.

    I like looking for openings on the 10 meter band, and continue to be
    surprised by how often I hear nothing on 10 meters (when probing
    with FT8 and pskreporter) but find plentiful openings on 12 meters,
    indicating the MUF is somewhere between 10 and 12 meters. To help 10
    meter observers, I have a CW propagation beacon on 28.2833 MHz,
    K7RA/B in Seattle. It runs about ten watts into a half wave dipole
    at a modest height.

    Two new sunspot groups emerged on November 26, one on November 28,
    and two more on November 30.

    On December 1, Spaceweather.com announced a geomagnetic storm watch:
    "Minor geomagnetic storms are possible on December 3 when a CME
    might sideswipe Earth's magnetic field. The storm cloud was hurled
    into space on November 29 by an erupting filament of magnetism in
    the Sun's southern hemisphere. According to NOAA computer models,
    the bulk of the CME should sail south of our planet with a near miss
    just as likely as a glancing blow."

    At 2340 UTC on December 2, the Australian Space Forecast Centre
    issued a Geomagnetic Disturbance Warning: "The effects of a coronal
    hole wind stream and coronal mass ejection are expected to increase
    geomagnetic activity on 03 December. Conditions are likely to be
    initially quiet with activity increasing. Active to minor storm
    levels are expected."

    Predicted solar flux for the next month has flux values peaking at
    94 on December 27-28. The forecast sees values of 86 on December 3,
    84 on December 4-5, 82 on December 6, 80 on December 7-10, 82 on
    December 11-12, 80 on December 13-14, 85 on December 15-21, 82 and
    80 on December 22-23, 78 on December 24-25, 92 on December 26, 94 on
    December 27-28, 88 on December 29, 2021 through January 1, 2022,
    then 85, 82 and 80 on January 2-4, 82 on January 5-8, and 80 on
    January 9-10.

    Predicted planetary A index is 12, 14, 10 and 12 on December 3-6, 8
    on December 7-8, 5 on December 9-11, then 8, 12 and 10 on December
    12-14, 5 on December 15-16, then 8 and 10 on December 17-18, 5 on
    December 19-25, 8 on December 26, 5 on December 27-29, 10 on
    December 30-31, 8 on January 1, 5 on January 2-7, then 8, 12, and 10
    on January 8-10.

    AA6XE wrote:

    "We now stand at exactly 2 years since the Cycle 24/25 Minimum was
    recorded and the most notable attribute of Solar Cycle 25 is its
    slow climb out. We have seen bursts of activity from the Sun where
    numerous Active Regions pop up with only a handful actually
    developing into numbered Sunspot Groups. The bulk of the new regions
    that form quickly decay away. As it stands right now Solar Cycle 25
    activity is running a little bit ahead of the same point in Solar
    Cycle 24. Does this point to a weak Solar Cycle much like we
    experienced with Solar Cycle 24?

    "It's still too early to say. The first couple of years in any Solar
    Cycle are never easy to take and Solar Cycle 25 is proving itself no
    exception. We await 'the breakout' when Solar Activity ramps up
    dramatically."

    He continued: "A dramatic run-up in Solar Flux over a period of a
    few days has little influence on increasing Ionospheric MUF. What
    does have an effect on the Ionospheric MUF is an increase in the
    Monthly Solar Flux Average and more significantly an increase of the
    90 Day mean Solar Flux Reading. The dramatic and unanticipated spike
    in sunspot activity we saw a year ago, November 2020, temporarily
    goosed the 90 Day Solar Flux Average which had been running in the
    low 70s at the time, boosting it into the Low 80s in the ensuing 60
    days.

    "It became quickly apparent the November 2020 event was an outlier
    and the 90 Day Solar Flux subsequently slipped back to the Mid 70s
    by mid-April 2021. Since that time the 90 Day Solar Flux Average has
    been rising steadily albeit slowly. As long as those figures
    continue to steadily chug up hill MUF levels will continue to rise.
    The 90 Day Solar Flux Average as it stands presently is in the Upper
    80s. The 90 Day Solar Flux Mean will be in the low 90s by the end of
    December if Solar Activity resumes the pace of growth we saw early
    in the fall. The Solar Breakout predicted by folks at NCAR (National
    Center for Atmospheric Research) has not materialized in time to
    provide any sort of relief to the Winter Season Doldrums we normally experience.

    "On the bright side this winter season is shaping up to be one of
    the best we will see on 160 Meter DX in the last several years.
    Solar Activity has picked up just enough to increase Ionization at
    those frequencies with little or no increase in D-Layer Absorption
    while the Planetary K Index has remained low."

    On November 29, N0JK reported from Kansas:

    "There was 6M sporadic-E on Thanksgiving.

    "From Kansas I worked WB5TUF (EL29) and NE5U (rare grid EL19) around
    0240 UTC November 25 on 50. 313 MHz FT8.

    "N0LL (EM09) worked NR4J (EM60) at 1625 UTC on 6 Meter FT8 November
    25."

    From OK1HH:

    "Weekly commentary on phenomena in the Sun, in the magnetosphere and
    in the ionosphere of the Earth.

    "One week ago, I compiled my last weekly forecast of the Earth's
    magnetic field activity. Primarily, my goal was to compile
    predictions of changes in the ionospheric propagation of decameter
    waves. Their first users were my friends - radio amateurs. But 45
    years ago no one provided available predictions. That's why I
    gradually learned to compile them myself. Today, actually applicable predictions are available from several sources on a weekly and daily
    basis, especially in the USA, Belgium, Australia, Russia and, to my
    delight, also in the Czech Republic.

    "In the meantime, I had long since reached retirement age and
    planned to finally quit. But I was asked to try to continue, using
    my experience. Therefore, from now I will try to write comments on
    current and upcoming development. If this activity will be found as
    useful and/or interesting, I will continue. And like 45 years ago,
    it's an experiment. So here is my first attempt:

    "Solar activity remains at current levels, and due to the location
    of solar coronal holes near the central meridian, the influx of
    faster solar winds can be expected to continue.

    "The irregular daily course of changes in the ionosphere, to which
    the relatively low or still declining solar activity will
    contribute, should continue in the next five days or so. In
    addition, after the CME on November 29, it is still possible for the
    plasma cloud to arrive late on December 2 or during December 3 - but
    the probability is already low.

    "After the expected slight increase in solar activity, I expect a
    more regular course of ionosphere parameters in the second half of
    December.

    "F. K. Janda, OK1HH
    Email: ok1hh(at)crk.cz, ok1hh(at)rsys.cz
    Pmail: OK1HH(at)OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU"

    NASA's new feature starts today:

    https://blogs.nasa.gov/sunspot/2021/12/02/welcome-to-nasas-solartour/

    Sunspot rotation rate history:

    https://bit.ly/3rsLfu1

    Sunspot variations during their decay:

    https://bit.ly/3rAJ7QS

    Dynamics of bright features:

    https://bit.ly/31pJraj

    A report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, for December 1:

    https://youtu.be/cISNu72utnI

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
    please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net .

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
    an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for November 25 through December 1, 2021 were 20,
    52, 53, 53, 47, 61, and 37, with a mean of 46.1. 10.7 cm flux was
    93.6, 92.3, 91.8, 92.2, 89.8, 90, and 86.4, with a mean of 90.9.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 4, 5, 9, 9, 11, and 18, with a
    mean of 8.7. Middle latitude A index was 3, 3, 3, 7, 6, 8, and 14,
    with a mean of 6.3.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Dec 10 17:41:37 2021
    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP050
    ARLP050 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP50
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 50 ARLP050
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA December 10, 2021
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP050
    ARLP050 Propagation de K7RA

    One new sunspot group appeared on December 4, but four days later it
    was gone, and on Thursday, December 9 we saw the second day with no
    sunspots.

    Average daily sunspot number declined from 46.1 to 24.6. Average
    daily solar flux went from 90.9 to 82.6.

    Predicted solar flux over the next month does not seem promising.
    The December 9 forecast shows 77 on December 10, 80 on December
    11-14, 82 on December 15, 84 on December 16-17, 85 on December 18,
    87 on December 19-22, 86 on December 23-27, 84 on December 28, 82 on
    December 29 through January 2, 80 on January 3-5, 82 on January 6-8,
    80 on January 9-10, 82 on January 11, 85 on January 12-14 and 87 on
    January 15-18.

    Predicted planetary A index is 10, 8, 10 and 8 on December 10-13, 8
    on December 13-14, 5 on December 14-15, then 10, 8, 12, 10 and 8 on
    December 16-20, 5 on December 21-26, then 15, 18 and 12 on December
    27-29, 8 on December 30 through January 3, 5 on January 4-5, then
    10, 8, 5, 12 and 10 on January 6-10, 5 on January 11-12, then 15,
    12, 10 and 8 on January 13-16, and 5 on January 17-22.

    From OK1HH:

    "Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere, December 9, 2021.

    "(Created as a continuation of Earth's magnetic field activity
    predictions, published since 1978.)

    "The only sunspot group on solar disk No. 2904, in which we observed
    three spots (=> R = 13) on December 7, was calm and decayed to
    plage. Thus, R = 0 applies since December 8, so we register a
    minimum within the quasi-periodic twenty-seven-day fluctuation. At
    the same time, the solar wind has weakened, the geomagnetic field
    has calmed down and consequently result are the lowest values of
    f0F2. However, the decreasing length of sunshine in the Earth's
    northern hemisphere also contributes to it.

    "In the remaining weeks until the end of the year, we can expect a
    gradual rise in solar activity to the level of the end of November,
    an irregular alternation of the Earth's magnetic field between quiet
    and unsettled, and a gradual rise in daily f0F2 values just slightly
    above average.

    "F. K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH
    Email: ok1hh(at)crk.cz, ok1hh(at)rsys.cz
    Pmail: OK1HH(at)OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU"

    This weekend is the annual ARRL 10-Meter Contest! Solar flux should
    be rising a modest amount during the event. Debris from asteroid
    Phaethon could possibly enhance propagation on 10 meters during the
    Geminids meteor shower, peaking on December 13. See http://www.ARRL.org/10-meter for contest details.

    N0JK reported on Wednesday from Kansas, "The Geminids Meteor shower
    is predicted to peak December 13-14. Already meteor rates are
    picking up.

    "I was able to work NJ0W/R in grid DN82 on 50 MHz meteor scatter
    using the MSK144 mode on December 7, at 0330 UTC. Dave, NJ0W made
    other meteor scatter contacts as well. DN82 is considered a rare
    grid for the FFMA (Fred Fish Memorial Award) on 6 Meters."

    The FFMA will be awarded to anyone working all North America grid
    squares on 6 meters. So far Fred Fish is the only ham who has done
    this.

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
    please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net .

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
    an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for December 2 through 8, 2021 were 45, 29, 35, 36,
    14, 13, and 0, with a mean of 24.6. 10.7 cm flux was 86.6, 85.3,
    88.1, 82.7, 80, 78.9, and 76.9, with a mean of 82.6. Estimated
    planetary A indices were 10, 8, 9, 9, 7, 5, and 5, with a mean of
    7.6. Middle latitude A index was 7, 4, 7, 6, 6, 3, and 4, with a
    mean of 5.3.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Tue Dec 28 11:10:11 2021
    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP052
    ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP52
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 52 ARLP052
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA December 28, 2021
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP052
    ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA

    Solar activity was way up this week, and it was reflected in on-air
    activity, especially on 10 meters. If only the ARRL 10 Meter Contest
    were held a week later!

    Average daily sunspot number jumped 100 points, from 24.4 last week
    to 124.4 in the current reporting week, December 16-22.

    Average daily solar flux increased from 82.9 to 125.

    Average planetary A index went from 5 to 9.1, and average middle
    latitude A index from 3.9 to 6.4.

    It was great looking at Spaceweather.com every day and seeing the
    Sun covered with spots.

    Predicted solar flux over the next week looks quite promising, with
    daily solar flux over 100 until the end of the year, then rising
    above 100 on January 16-22, 2022. But the outlook issued on
    Thursday, December 23 wasn't as optimistic as the one issued the
    previous day.

    Flux values are predicted at 130, 125, 120, 115 and 113 on December
    24-28, then 110 on December 29-30, 85 on December 31, 2021, then 83,
    81, 80 and 81 on January 1-4, 2022, 82 on January 5-6, then 83, 86,
    90 and 92 on January 7-10, 95 on January 11-12, 96 on January 13-15,
    then jumping up to 115 on January 16-17, then 114, 111 and 110 on
    January 18-20, 108, 102 and 95 on January 21-23, then 90, 88, 87 and
    85 on January 24-27, then dropping to a low of 80 on January 30
    before rising above 90 after the first week in February.

    Predicted planetary A index is 20, 12, 16, 8, 10 and 12 on December
    24-29, 8 on December 30-31, 2021, then 5 on January 1-8, 2022, then
    8 and 5 on January 9-10, 10 on January 11-12, 5 on January 13-14,
    then 8, 12, 18, 12 and 8 on January 15-19, 5 on January 20-22, then
    8, 10, 8 and 8 on January 23-26, and 5 on January 27 through
    February 4.

    These observations from J.K. Janda, OK1HH:

    "Unlike meteorologists, for example, we do not have reliable models
    of the Sun's behavior and subsequent changes in the Earth's
    magnetosphere and atmosphere. Therefore, we did not expect the
    current increase in activity. On the other hand, we can consider
    them as another promise of a higher maximum of the 25th cycle.

    "Most spots are in the southern hemisphere of the Sun, M-class
    flares are observed in both hemispheres, the solar flux has climbed
    from the minimum to the highest values in two weeks and the speed of
    the solar wind remaining increased in ten days.

    "Geomagnetic activity increased relatively only slightly, only after
    the spot activity moved to the western half of the solar disk. These
    changes were mostly favorable for the changes in the shortwave
    propagation conditions. Before the beginning of the ascent, as
    shortest the 18 MHz band was regularly opened for the DX contacts,
    while in last days the 21 MHz band is opened relatively reliably.

    "As a result of the eruptions of previous days, the Earth's magnetic
    field activity should increase around December 24th and then
    probably again on 27th.

    "Before the end of the year, there will return a significant
    decrease in solar activity. Its next growth is expected around
    mid-January."

    Thanks to KH6CP for this tip on the new WindCube satellite:

    https://bit.ly/3yWtVPH

    W9NY wrote from Chicago:

    "Even though conditions were disappointing for most of the ARRL 10
    Meter Contest weekend, there were sporadic openings all over the
    United States from my Dune Acres location and for a few minutes at a
    time signals from both the Colorado and California areas were very
    strong. I also worked a number of stations in South America, but
    only Puerto Rico in the Caribbean.

    "On Sunday 12/19/21 10 meters really opened up for a while. I first
    heard a W6 beacon in the morning coming in S9 and not a signal on
    the band. After one CQ at 28.420 I started a long string of
    contacts in the late morning, and again mid-afternoon. Some West
    coast stations running just 100 watts to dipoles were coming in 20
    over S9 - just like the good old days.

    "Made some contacts on 12 meters too. I heard NOTHING on 6 meters.

    "I am looking forward to 10 meters using my MFJ loop from Miami
    Beach the 1st 3 months of 2022."

    KA3JAW monitors 11 meters for sporadic-E. On December 23 he wrote:

    "Wednesday, December 22, 2021 there was a six-hour multi-hop
    transatlantic sporadic-E event into western Europe on the 11 meter
    band from 1326-1929 UTC.

    "Solar flux index hit its highest point in the current solar cycle
    at 140. This was due to 9 sunspot groups; 2907, 2908, 2909, 2911,
    2912, 2915, 2916, 2917, and 2918."

    He also wrote:

    "Sunday, December 19, 2021 was a crazy eight hour single and
    multi-hop sporadic-E day on the 11 meter band from 11:23 AM till
    7:37 PM EST; 1623 UTC December 19th - 0037 UTC December 20th.

    "During noontime, western Canada prairie provinces plus US west
    coast stations were rolling into the US northeast region.

    "From 5:22 PM to 6:20 PM Es conditions were deteriorating with
    increased background noise conditions until the last station from
    Golden Valley, Arizona was heard at 7:37 PM.

    "Seems that the secondary sporadic-E winter season has begun."

    On December 19, Steve Sacco (who did not give a call sign) wrote,
    regarding 10 meters:

    "I've never seen so many KL7s on at once. So far, have worked two,
    plus VE8CK and VY1FC.

    "PSKR showing the band open from my location to Europe and KL7 and
    JA and VK at 2215 UTC on 12/19/2021. JA3REX worked at 2217 UTC.

    "If only this happened LAST weekend!"

    N0JK wrote:

    "I was on 6M MSK144 the morning of December 14 at the peak of the
    Geminids Meteor shower. 50.260 MHz was busy. Worked WI9WI, WG0G and
    KF0Y in rare grid DN92 around 1400 UTC. All random contacts.

    "Also checked 50.245 for W5A (EL15). Some flickers on the screen,
    but no decodes."

    W8TJM of Liberty Lake, Washington commented on his December 19
    activity on 15 meters:

    "As soon as I got my 15 meter half-wave vertical antenna up at my
    low-noise site at 1915 UTC, I worked OH6RM in Finland. He was S5-S7
    with very little QSB and we had a solid 25 minute QSO and then I
    listened to his contacts off and on for another hour. I also had an
    enjoyable contact with Per, SM2LIY at 1950 UTC and he was also
    S5-S7, but had a very fast flutter on his signal that was
    consistent. I heard no European stations."

    Carl, K9LA commented:

    "The paths that Toivo and Per commented on can be two different
    mechanisms depending on where the US station is. I wrote about this
    (called the Santa Claus Polar Path) in my monthly column on my
    website back in 2014."

    http://www.k9la.us/Sep14_The_Santa_Claus_Polar_Path.pdf .

    Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW has a new forecast on December 23 with a
    video lasting 96 minutes:

    https://youtu.be/PfPi5cYR31Q

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
    please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net .

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
    an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for December 16 through 22, 2021 were 127, 119, 117,
    109, 115, 147, and 137, with a mean of 124.4. 10.7 cm flux was
    117.9, 120.9, 121.3, 115.3, 122.7, 136.6, and 140.4, with a mean of
    125. Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 3, 4, 12, 16, 10, and 11,
    with a mean of 9.1. Middle latitude A index was 5, 2, 2, 8, 13, 7,
    and 8, with a mean of 6.4.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Mon Jan 3 17:57:47 2022
    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP053
    ARLP053 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP53
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 53 ARLP053
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA January 3, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP053
    ARLP053 Propagation de K7RA

    Sunspot activity persisted this week, although the numbers were a
    little lower. Average daily sunspot number declined from 124.4 to
    110.1. Average daily solar flux slipped just slightly from 125 to
    124.

    Average daily planetary A index went from 9.1 to 6.4, and average
    middle latitude numbers changed from 6.4 to 4.4.

    New sunspot groups appeared on December 25, 26 and 28.

    Predicted solar flux over the next month is expected to peak at 130
    on January 18 and 19, and the numbers are 100 on December 31, 2021,
    100 on January 1 and 2, 2022, 98, 95 and 95 on January 3 to 5, then
    90, 92 and 100 on January 6 to 8, 105 and 110 on January 9 and 10,
    115 on January 11 to 13, 118 on January 14 and 15, then 122 and 128
    on January 16 and 17, 130 on January 18 and 19, then 128, 125 and
    120 on January 20 to 22, 125 on January 23 and 24, 122 on January
    25, 120 on January 26 and 27, then 115, 110, 100 and 95 on January
    28 to 31, 90 on February 1 and 2, 92 and 100 on February 3 and 4,
    105 and 110 on February 5 and 6, and 115 on February 7 to 9.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8, 5, 12 and 8 on December 31, 2021
    through January 3, 2022, 5 on January 4 to 10, 10 on January 11 and
    12, 5 on January 13 and 14, then 8 and 12 on January 15 and 16, 8 on
    January 17 and 18, 5 on January 19 to 22, then 8, 10, 8 and 8 on
    January 23 to 26, then 5 on January 27 through February 6 and 8 on
    February 7 and 8.

    From OK1HH:

    "Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere, December 30, 2021 (Continuation of Earth's magnetic
    field activity predictions, published between 1978 and 2021.)

    Solar activity was a little more vivid than we expected. Both spot
    and flare activity predominated in the southern hemisphere, while
    small coronal holes were observed mostly in the northern hemisphere.

    This corresponded well with the irregular occurrences of the
    slightly increased activity of the Earth's magnetic field, thus also
    the irregularities in the daily course of the ionosphere parameters.

    The surprise came after the increase in proton density in the solar
    wind in the evening of December 29, where only a relatively small
    increase in its group velocity was observed. The result in the
    ionosphere was higher critical frequencies in the F2 layer in the
    middle of the night and an increased occurrence of scattering and
    extended reflections, especially on the morning of December 30."

    Mike, KM0T in NW Iowa (EM13) wrote early on December 29 about 6
    meters:

    "Watching spaceweather.com for a few days, they predicted a few M
    class flares hitting, but it seemed to have missed us. But I also
    noticed that the flux was around 140 and knowing that a slight
    disturbance could skew things the right way, I was somewhat aware of
    things.

    Then I saw TEP-Chordal stuff happening on the 26th to ZL/VK, which
    did not really surprise me thinking we got a few glancing blows from
    the flares perhaps. However did not see many if any Midwest reports
    so I sort of ignored it.

    The next day I saw it again, but was busy. Then saw an email from
    W7XU (Arliss in South Dakota) saying ZL was in. Sure enough turned
    the radio on and got decodes from ZL7DX. It appeared that there was
    an Es link in the Midwest to DM43 / XE area that was getting into
    the TEP-Chordal hops. I believe ZL7 was working a few XEs on FT8,
    so I found one decode and moved my tx up in freq, started calling
    -17 report. He came back a few minutes later with -20 and then my
    RR73 was answered 73 in same sequence. It all happened very quickly.
    Then he was gone.

    Thought it was My first ZL, then I found out it was ZL7.

    Not sure anyone this far north and east worked him. The stacked 6
    Ele 6M yagis were as low as possible, due to recent wind storms.
    Bottom one is about 24 feet, then about 20 feet higher on the mast
    for the upper one. 1.5KW, no preamp, Flex-6600."

    Related to this, see an article by K9LA:

    https://bit.ly/3pGyScz

    Grant, KZ1W wrote on the Western Washington DX Club email list on
    December 29:

    "N6MZ and I were separately working EU stations a couple of weeks
    ago on 12m well before local sunrise. Clearly, the short path
    wasn't open, and we were mystified how that can happen.

    This week I am working EU on 15m, well before sunrise.

    Both bands are very limited on short path with sunrise here and
    sunset in EU so close together at this time of year.

    I found a possible explanation in K9LA's Propagation book (CQ): When
    US amateurs point antennas at central Africa, towards the magnetic
    equator, the higher level of ionization there often causes signals
    to be scattered. If EU points south to SW a portion of their
    signals will be side scattered west. The path is optimized roughly
    between 1200 and 1500 UTC and some seeking of best azimuth is worth
    trying. Should work on 10m if EU is there.

    With QRO, a beam, and FT8 there is enough gain to make it work. Try
    it if the 40m FT8 mess is too annoying. But I did work A71AE Qatar
    LP 40m this week for a new band and a Marathon count.

    I've used NE aimed scattering paths on 10m open to the Caribbean,
    but not to EU. Different mechanisms I think. Learn something new
    all the time."

    AG7N responded:

    "20 has been excellent to EU about 8 to 9 a.m. local. I've been
    working my good friend DF9LJ who lives close to the Danish border on
    CW and SSB at 599/59 the last few days. The band closes about 9:15
    a.m. local. On 40 EU has been coming in at 7:30 AM local (1530
    UTC) but I've been receiving the signals LP and SP simultaneously
    which makes copy difficult at moderate CW speeds."

    W0PB wrote:

    "On December 19 between 2032 UTC to 2035 UTC on 10 meter CW, I
    worked Tord, SM3EVR and Per SM2LIY in that order. Both were 579-589
    here in West Des Moines, IA. They both gave me a 559 report from my
    100W and ground-mounted vertical. They disappeared ten minutes
    later."

    N0JK wrote:

    "Some sporadic-E December 26 from Kansas to N5BO EM60 Florida. He
    received me on 50.313 MHz FT8 at -21 dB. Stations along the Gulf
    Coast and Texas worked New Zealand on 6 Meter FT8 with Es links to
    TEP."

    Jeff, N8II wrote from West Virginia on December 30:

    "I worked MI0SAI and EI9HX with S9 signals on 12M SSB about 1545 UTC
    today. VE2CSI in CQ zone 2 (NE QC) was S9+25 db on 10M CW via Es at
    the same time. The DxMaps MUF was above 30MHz in almost all
    directions from FM19 at 1700 UTC, but I only worked one station in
    San Jacinto county, TX plus Reno, NV on either F2 or double hop Es.

    Sunday through Wednesday I worked EU on 10M with Tuesday being the
    best day. Two stations in Scotland were S9 around 1400 UTC Tuesday
    including Ian, MM0TFU who always seems to be there when band is
    open. He now runs 400W to a 5 el yagi.

    Also, I worked MI0SAI and an OE6 on 20M SSB at 2130 UTC Wednesday
    about 25 minutes before my sunset and many hours past EU sunset with
    possible Es aid."

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for December 23 through 29, 2021 were 143, 145, 117,
    95, 85, 107, and 79, with a mean of 110.1. 10.7 cm flux was 129.8,
    126.2, 130.7, 125.4, 123.9, 120.5, and 111.4, with a mean of 124.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 5, 7, 3, 10, 9, and 7, with a
    mean of 6.4. Middle latitude A index was 2, 3, 5, 2, 8, 6, and 5,
    with a mean of 4.4.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Jan 7 12:14:08 2022
    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP001
    ARLP001 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP01
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 1 ARLP001
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA January 7, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP001
    ARLP001 Propagation de K7RA

    Sunspot activity was substantially lower this week, but new sunspot
    groups emerged on December 31, January 1, January 4, and January 5.
    Average daily sunspot number dropped from 110.1 to 36.4, while
    average daily solar flux went from 124 to 91.4.

    Geomagnetic activity was still fairly quiet, even with a number of
    flares and CMEs, with the average daily planetary A index changing
    from 6.4 to 7.7, and average middle latitude A index from 4.4 to 6.

    Predicted solar flux over the next month shows 10.7 cm flux values
    peaking at 120 on January 16-24, and again at 120 in mid-February.

    The daily predicted values are 94 on January 7, 96 on January 8-14,
    115 on January 15, 120 on January 16-24, 110 on January 25, 100 on
    January 26-27, 95 and 90 on January 28-29, 88 on January 30-31, 85
    on February 1-5, then 90, 95 and 100 on February 6-8, 115 on
    February 9-11, and 120 on February 12-20.

    The predicted planetary A index is 5 on January 7-8, then 12, 14 and
    8 on January 9-11, 5 on January 12-14, then 8 and 12 on January
    15-16, back to 8 again on January 17-18, 5 on January 19-22, 10 on
    January 23, 8 on January 24-26, 5 and 10 on January 27-28, 8 on
    January 29-30, 5 on January 31 through February 6, 10 on February
    7-8, 5 on February 9-10, then 8, 12, 8 and 8 on February 11-14.

    From F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

    "Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere-January 6, 2022.

    "Free continuation of Earth's magnetic field activity predictions,
    published between 1978-2022.

    "Solar activity is declining as expected. The last of the chain of
    active areas on the Sun, which gradually set behind the western limb
    of the solar disk, still contributed to the increase in the speed of
    the solar wind in the first three days of the new year.

    "The activity of the Earth's magnetic field has decreased since
    January 4, and MUF values are gradually declining.

    "The solar coronal holes, which now extend along the southern half
    of the central meridian, should contribute to a slight increase in
    the speed of the solar wind in the coming days.

    "Best news in conclusion: we expect a recurrent increase in solar
    activity around mid-January.

    "Note: The website https://www.solarham.net/ is long-term valued not
    only by radio amateurs but also by professional astronomers."

    I frequently check https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/ to peer over the
    Sun's horizon to see what might emerge over the next few days. I
    look for those messy white splotches, which may indicate magnetic
    complexity and perhaps a returning or emerging sunspot.

    Although the image is constantly updated (every few minutes)
    presenting views of the Sun in real time, in October 2014
    communication with the STEREO-B spacecraft was lost, so we no longer
    see a full 360 degree image of the Sun.

    https://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/behind_status.shtml

    I've been wondering how much it would cost to replace the failed
    spacecraft, and if there might be any plans to do so. I checked with
    someone at NASA, and received this interesting response:

    "I don't know exactly how much it would cost to build a single
    spacecraft to replace STEREO-B at this point.

    "The two spacecraft combined (A and B) were about $550 million back
    before STEREO launch in 2006.

    "There is no plan to replace STEREO-B, but based on the success of
    the STEREO mission there are a lot of people proposing missions
    observing the Sun and solar wind from spacecraft at the relatively
    stable Sun-Earth L4 and/or L5 points or else other spacecraft
    orbiting the Sun. We will see if any of them are funded. The exact
    cost would depend on the details of the mission."

    L4 and L5 refer to Lagrange points:

    https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/faq/88/what-are-lagrange-points/

    Jon Jones, N0JK in Lawrence, Kansas wrote:

    "January 3 was a big day for the VHF bands.

    "The Quadrantid Meteor shower appeared to peak around 2030 UTC
    January 3 as per the NASA prediction.

    "I logged N0LL/P DM89 (353 miles) at 1950 UTC on 50.260 MHz MSK144.
    Then KE8FD (EN80, 779 miles) also 50.260 MSK144. Logged KA9CFD
    (EN40, 993 miles) on FT8, too far for ground wave. May have been
    meteor enhanced.

    "That evening there was a strong sporadic-E opening across North
    America. I had a 6 Meter PSK flag from ZF1EJ (EK99, 1573 miles) at
    2357 UTC. Later worked N7BHC in rare EL15 (829 miles, Brownsville,
    Texas) at 0246 UTC.

    "73, Jon N0JK"

    Jon writes the monthly "World Above 50 MHz" column in QST, and
    operates from EM17 grid square:

    https://www.arrl.org/the-world-above-50-mhz

    More good 10 meter news from Greg Mitchell, KB1AWM, in Goose Creek,
    South Carolina:

    "Just wanted to report a very favorable afternoon on 10 meters
    12/27. Worked 4 VK stations back to back from South Carolina
    starting about 3:30pm local time. Antenna was a simple long wire.
    VK4ZC started the run; he copied me at a -06 and I gave him a -15.
    VK3BOX, VK2HFP and VK3KJ followed, with the last one issuing me a
    +04. Great Christmas surprise on 10M. Over the past several years, I
    have never worked that easily into the south Pacific on 10."

    On January 6, WJ5O posted to an HF beacon email list:

    "It's mid-morning in Southern Alabama and I'm hearing beacon signals
    a bit earlier than usual.

    "1549-1559 UTC, 6 January 2022, I can hear/identify five 10 meter beacon signals into EM71as.

    "28.2082 AK2F RANDOLPH, NJ 885 miles
    28.234 K4DP COVINGTON, VA 534 miles
    28.236 W8YT MARTINSBURG, WV 691 miles
    28.270 WA3NFV FAIR HILL, PA 838 miles
    28.296 W3APL LAUREL, MD 733 miles"

    Al, W1VTP in New Hampshire wrote on January 5:

    "Don't know if you are interested in 75m local comm or not but last
    night was the pits. We did all our communications using the
    Washington SDR receiver and it was mostly successful. Point to point
    comm useless."

    I think what happened was the ionosphere directly above his area was
    not dense enough to reflect 75 meter signals. We may think of local
    75 meter signals depending on ground wave propagation, but in fact
    it may depend on high angle signals reflected from the overhead
    ionosphere.

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
    please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for December 30, 2021 through January 5, 2022 were
    77, 53, 52, 25, 12, 12, and 24, with a mean of 36.4. 10.7 cm flux
    was 102.4, 101.5, 93.9, 89, 84, 85.5, and 83.7, with a mean of 91.4.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 4, 11, 10, 12, 6, and 3, with
    a mean of 7.7. Middle latitude A index was 7, 2, 9, 7, 9, 5, and 3,
    with a mean of 6.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Jan 21 16:10:58 2022
    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP003
    ARLP003 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP03
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 3 ARLP003
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA January 21, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP003
    ARLP003 Propagation de K7RA

    Solar and geomagnetic activity increased this week. Average daily
    sunspot number was 52 points higher, rising from 42.4 to 94.4. The
    sunspot number peaked at 120 last Saturday.

    Average daily solar flux went from 101.6 to 112, peaking at 119.4 on
    Sunday. Average daily planetary A index rose from 6.1 to 15.6, and
    average middle latitude numbers went from 4.1 to 11.3. On January 20
    the daily solar flux dipped to 99.3, the first daily noon reading
    below 100 since January 6.

    As reported by Spaceweather.com, Sunspot AR2929 erupted at 1744 UTC
    on January 18 with an M1.5 class solar flare, blasting a pulse of
    X-rays causing a shortwave radio blackout.

    See https://bit.ly/3rC6W9t . Another eruption occurred on January
    20, producing this blackout: https://bit.ly/3AfyLby .

    I observed the January 18 blackout when I was using FT8 on 10 meters
    to observe propagation using pskreporter.info. Just before the blast
    I could see my 10 meter signal reported by stations on the East
    Coast, and suddenly I saw no reports. The surprising part was during
    that period no local stations reported copying my signal either.

    Predicted solar flux is 95, 93 and 91 on January 21-23, 89 on
    January 24-26, then 92 on January 27-28, 90 on January 29-30, 95 on
    January 31, then 100 and 105 on February 1-2, 110 on February 3-10,
    115 on February 11-14, then 110, 108 and 106 on February 15-17, 102
    on February 18-21, 100 on February 22-23, 95 on February 24, and 90
    on February 25-26. Flux values may rise to 110 after March 2.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8, 10 and 12 on January 21-23, 8 on
    January 24-26, 5 on January 27, 10 on January 28-30, 5 on January 31
    through February 3, then 15 and 10 on February 4-5, 5 on February
    6-9, then 12, 15, 12, 18 and 10 on February 10-14, 5 on February
    15-19, 8 on February 20-22, 5 on February 23, and 10 on February
    24-26, then back to 5 through the end of the month.

    The predicted values summarized above are updated daily at:

    https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/45-day-ap-forecast.txt

    Daily solar flux from Penticton, British Columbia:

    https://bit.ly/33XlFnj

    The local noon reading is the official SFN for the day.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere-January 20, 2022, from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

    "We have been able to observe four to eight groups of sunspots on
    the Sun over the past seven days. They are now mostly in the western hemisphere, therefore solar flux has been declining.

    "And suddenly a bang!

    "This morning (January 20) we could observe a nice moderate-sized
    solar flare near the northwestern limb of the solar disc. With a
    maximum at 0601 UTC, it caused the Dellinger effect in the Indian
    Ocean region for tens of minutes, followed by type II and IV solar
    radio noise bursts, which confirmed the outburst of CME (but plasma
    cloud likely will miss Earth).

    "Now we are facing a gradual decline in solar activity. Larger
    geomagnetic disturbances are expected in early February again. Their
    more accurate prediction will depend on the further development of
    the sunspot groups that are now located around the eastern limb of
    the solar disk."

    Here is a geomagnetic activity forecast for the period January
    21-January 27, 2022:

    "Quiet: Jan 22-23
    Unsettled: Jan 21-22, 25-27
    Active: Jan 24-25
    Minor storm: Jan 24
    Major storm: 0
    Severe storm: 0

    "Geomagnetic activity summary:

    "After the last active and minor storm events (at the Budkov
    observatory, minor storm event have been recorded at January 14, 16,
    18 and 19) we expect geomagnetic activity decrease to unsettled
    (January 21-22) or quiet to unsettled (January 22-23) level. Then,
    starting at Monday, January 24, other active or minor storm events
    are possible. At the end of current forecast period, we expect quiet
    to unsettled conditions to return.

    "Tomas Bayer
    RWC Prague Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
    Department of Geomagnetism Budkov observatory (BDV)."

    Interesting sunspot plot:

    https://wwwbis.sidc.be/silso/eisnplot

    KA3JAW in Easton, PA (FN20jq) reported:

    "On Saturday, January 15, 2022 from 1346-1426 UTC started hearing
    multiple central Mediterranean Sea stations, Italy, Greece, with
    others along the Adriatic Sea on SSB mode on the 11 meter band.
    Signal strengths deviated from fairly good to moderately strong with
    moderate QSB. Average distances reached up to 4X sporadic-E ranges
    at 4750 miles. This was the time frame when the Global D-Region
    Absorption Predictions (D-RAP) maximum absorption attenuation
    reached up to 16 MHz. For the rest of the day Es conditions were
    dampened with higher amounts of sky wave background noise."

    K7HBN (CN87) reported on January 14 via Western Washington DX Club:

    "Today's opening on 28 MHz was unique indeed. The opening was
    obviously enhanced by the solar wind stream from the coronal hole.
    What was the strangest, I heard stations from Arizona with a strong
    Au component on their signals calling CQ on the same frequency as
    strong OH, SM and LA stations. I can't remember any such propagation
    in my entire Ham Radio life, and I've orbited the Sun a few times."

    Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, reports, "Our Sun is getting busy":

    https://youtu.be/2eXhwDHYeeY

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
    please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for January 13 through 19, 2022 were 111, 112, 120,
    103, 99, 59, and 57, with a mean of 94.4. 10.7 cm flux was 105.5,
    110.2, 115.6, 119.4, 113.5, 114.5, and 105.3, with a mean of 112.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 15, 22, 19, 9, 18, and 23,
    with a mean of 15.6. Middle latitude A index was 3, 10, 17, 16, 6,
    12, and 15, with a mean of 11.3.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Jan 28 10:47:15 2022
    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP004
    ARLP004 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP04
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 4 ARLP004
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA January 28, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP004
    ARLP004 Propagation de K7RA

    A new sunspot group appeared on January 20 and another on January
    24, two more on January 25 and one more on January 26. But overall
    solar activity declined from the previous week, January 13-19.
    Average daily sunspot number declined from 94.4 to 39.6, and average
    daily solar flux went from 112 to 97.6.

    On January 27 the daily sunspot number was 85, much higher than the
    average of 39.6 of the previous seven days, always a good signal for
    increasing activity.

    Predicted solar flux is 105 on January 28 through February 4, 108 on
    February 5-6, 110 on February 7-8, 108 on February 9-10, then 106,
    105, 103, 101, 100 and 95 on February 11-16, 92 on February 17-18,
    90 on February 19-21, then 88, 87, 92 and 94 on February 22-25, 96
    on February 26-28, 98 and 100 on March 1-2, 105 on March 3-4, then
    110 on March 5, and 108 on March 6-7.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5, 12 and 10 on January 28-30, 5 on
    January 31 through February 3, then 15 and 10 on February 4-5, 5 on
    February 6-9, then 12, 15 and 12 on February 10-12, 5 on February
    13-19, 8 on February 20-23, then 5, 12 and 10 on February 24-26, 5
    on February 27 through March 2, then 15 and 10 on March 3-4, and 5
    on March 5-8.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:

    "Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - January 27, 2022 (Free continuation of my Earth's
    magnetic field activity predictions, published between 1978 - 2021.)

    "Since the end of last November, fluctuations in the level of solar
    activity within the twenty-seven-day periodicity have been more
    regular, which contributes to the success of the forecasts. This
    also applies to the occurrence of coronal holes, so predictions of
    the Earth's magnetic field activity are also more accurate
    (including the next recurrent geomagnetic disturbance, which we
    expect on/about February 4). The overall level of solar activity is
    rising faster than long-term forecasts suggest, so it can be assumed
    that the maximum of the current 11-year cycle will be higher than
    the previous one."

    "Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period January 28 to February
    03, 2022:

    "Quiet: Jan 28, Jan 31-Feb 3
    Unsettled: Jan 29-31
    Active: Jan 28-29, Feb 3-4
    Minor storm: Feb 4
    Major storm: 0
    Severe storm: 0

    "Geomagnetic activity summary:

    "Friday, January 28, we expect quiet conditions. Then, starting
    Saturday, January 29, we expect an unsettled to active period ending
    by January 31. At the start of February, we expect quiet conditions
    to Thursday, February 3. About February 3-4, we expect a new active
    episode which can reach a minor storm level.

    "Tomas Bayer, RWC Prague Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
    Department of Geomagnetism Budkov observatory (BDV)."

    On January 16 a local Seattle ham reported:

    "Amazing Aurora opening on 10m Friday at 2100-2230 UTC, CW and SSB.
    Northern Europe only, GM, DL, SP, UA1, EW, OZ, LA, SM, and best
    signals were from OH. VERY unusual and first time Western Washington
    big opening to EU in years, and it was worked by several W7s. DX
    Maps showed lots of lines over the North Pole, very late night in
    Scandinavia."

    I often ignore stories from British tabloids, but this one seems to
    be not overly alarmist:

    https://bit.ly/3s0kThs

    WB8VLC, from Salem Oregon reported:

    "At 2353 UTC on Jan 22 on 10 meter CW at 28.066 MHz I was hearing
    KFS, a non-ham which was at once a Maritime station in California
    calling CQ CQ for the past 10 minutes, then he faded away or he shut
    down at 2400 UTC.

    "I was just in QSO with FK8IK in New Caledonia on 10 meter CW after
    which I saw another fast but weak CW station above us and it was KFS
    calling CQ, very weak at first until I moved my beam south and then
    he was strong 569 with some QSB sending about 25 WPM on 28.066 MHz.

    "Aside from typical South America on 10 SSB not much today except
    for FK8IK on both 12 and 10 CW but he was 599 on both bands.

    "2022-01-22 2314 UTC 24.902 MHz CW FK8IK 599 both ways
    2022-01-22 2337 UTC 28.010 MHz CW FK8IK 599
    2022-01-22 2353 UTC 28.066 MHz CW KFS

    "The KFS activity was legitimate."

    Regarding rising activity versus forecasts, back in Propagation
    Forecast Bulletin ARLP002 we included this link:

    https://bit.ly/3GsbuFI .

    WA7AA responded (edited):

    "They went on to say sunspot counts exceeded predicted values for 15
    straight months, and the monthly value at the end of December 2021
    was the highest in 5 years and more than twice the value forecast by
    the NOAA/NASA prediction panel.

    "This isn't the first place I've seen this claim from the NOAA/NASA
    prediction panel and I am wondering if you have any contacts in that
    group to ask them for some clarification and explanation. There are
    several problems with this 'over-performance' claim they excitedly
    show in the link above. The first is that the graph on that link
    places the last solar minimum several months after the actual
    minimum that occurred in November 2019. That alone can skew any
    subsequent analysis and make it prone to a misinterpretation.

    "The next thing is the graph shows the length of their predicted
    Solar Cycle 25 as 14 years long! This is nowhere near any cycle
    length in recorded history that, as we all know, averages to around
    11 years. No one can even predict a cycle length, so where did they
    get this from?

    "And finally, their predicted cycle graph is a smooth one peak cycle
    (slow rising slopes as a result), while most cycles so far have been
    dual peak cycles (steeper slopes and a sort of a plateau as a
    result).

    "Once you add all three of these errors into the observation, it is
    easy to make a claim that Solar Cycle 25 is over-performing the
    predictions ('twice the value') made before it started, that
    generally placed it in the same strength as Solar Cycle 24 within
    the 5-10% margin.

    "However, when the curve is adjusted to start in November 2019, when
    it's compressed to the average 11 years length and tweaked to a
    double peak graph (in other words, more or less carbon-copied the
    Solar Cycle 24 graph), it quickly becomes obvious that Solar Cycle
    25 is so far following the last cycle curve almost exactly,
    insignificantly higher at 3-4 spots per month.

    "A recent cycle comparison at, http://www.solen.info/solar/images/comparison_recent_cycles.png
    confirms this observation.

    "I am by no means an expert in propagation predictions in any way,
    but it just seems weird that anyone connected to NOAA and/or NASA
    would make such an error and proceed to stick to it for so long. Am
    I missing something here? Was this a bad case of wishful thinking on
    their part? I would like to know what their explanation is."

    N0JK reported:

    "A major sporadic-E opening on 6 Meters took place in the 2022 ARRL
    January VHF Contest on Saturday afternoon January 15. Starting
    around 2100 UTC, stations in Florida appeared in Kansas. The opening
    grew and spread and by 2300 UTC 6 Meters was open to the entire
    southeast part of the country.

    "I received a PSK flag from ZF1EJ and logged XE2X (EL06). The
    opening then spread east to Ohio and north to Minnesota (N0JCF
    EN35). KF0M (EM17) worked Cuba and almost completed with HI3AA. The
    opening faded at 0046 UTC with K3VN (EL98) last in my log. I was
    operating single operator portable 10 watts with MFJ-9406 and a 2 el
    Yagi. Cold and windy! The next morning a short 6 Meter Es opening
    to Mexico with XE2YWH (DL92) worked at 1435 UTC. All contacts FT8.

    "The sporadic-E was a real treat for the January VHF Contest."

    Here is a report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW.

    https://youtu.be/vsLIY2Y0xQs

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
    please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
    an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for January 20 through 26, 2022 were 60, 23, 22, 22,
    26, 53, and 71, with a mean of 39.6. 10.7 cm flux was 99.3, 97.3,
    95.2, 93.5, 95.2, 100.9, and 101.8, with a mean of 97.6. Estimated
    planetary A indices were 5, 8, 10, 8, 4, 13, and 10, with a mean of
    8.3. Middle latitude A index was 5, 5, 7, 7, 3, 10, and 8, with a
    mean of 6.4.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Mon Feb 7 14:57:43 2022
    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP005
    ARLP005 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP05
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 5 ARLP005
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA February 7, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP005
    ARLP005 Propagation de K7RA

    Our Sun was much more active over the past week, with average daily
    sunspot number more than doubling from 39.6 in the previous week to
    81.3 in the current reporting week, January 27 to February 2.

    Geomagnetic indicator average daily Planetary A index changed from
    8.3 to 10.1, while average middle latitude A index was unchanged at
    6.4.

    Predicted solar flux for the near term is 126, 130 and 125 on
    February 4-6, 120 on February 7-10, 128 on February 11-12, 125 on
    February 13-14, 120 on February 15-17, 128 on February 18-21, 125 on
    February 22-25, 128 on February 26, 132 on February 27-28, 135 on
    March 1-3, 125 on March 4-7, 128 on March 8-11 and 125 on March
    12-13.

    Predicted planetary A index is 12, 20, 18 and 10 February 4-7, 5 on
    February 8-10, 8 on February 11, 5 on February 12-16, then 10, 12, 8
    and 5 on February 17-20, then 10, 8, 5 and 8 on February 21-24, then
    12, 8, 5 and 8 on February 25-28, then 10, 5 and 5 on March 1-3, 20
    and 12 on March 4-5, 5 on March 6-8, then 12 and 8 on March 9-10,
    then 5 on March 11-15, then 10, 12 and 8 on March 16-18.

    From F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

    "Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere, February 3, 2022

    "The solar radio flux of 130 and the daily sunspot number up to SSN
    of 100 at the end of January, compared to the equal heliographic
    length in past solar rotations, showed how unreliable the
    twenty-seven-day quasi-periodicity as the guideline for the
    predictions can be.

    "The M1 solar flare in AR2936 on January 29th was also a surprise,
    which because of the magnetic configuration we did not expect. On
    the contrary, it was no surprise that the accompanied LDE, which
    triggered halo CME, was followed by an intensification of the solar
    wind and an increase in the Earth's geomagnetic field activity. A
    major storm was expected on February 2nd. However, it arrived a day
    later, on 3rd, including major changes in the parameters of the
    Earth's ionosphere in the form of its positive phase around noon
    UTC."

    Interesting new Solar Cycle 25 update, thanks to K9LA and K1HTV:

    https://helioforecast.space/solarcycle

    Also, a comment from Dr. Ron Turner of ANSER Research Institute in
    Virginia, via Spaceweather.com. He thinks it may be too early to
    expect a strong Solar Cycle 25.

    This graph shows why Turner is skeptical:

    https://www.spaceweather.com/images2022/03feb22/sunspotcounts.png

    "Solar Cycle 25 is doing something interesting. It is mimicking old
    Solar Cycle 24 (SC24).

    "I took sunspot numbers from the early years of SC24 (the red dashed
    line) and overlaid them on SC25," says Turner. "They're an almost
    perfect match."

    "This is significant because Solar Cycle 24 went on to become the
    weakest solar cycle in a century. Its hot start did not lead to a
    strong maximum. Turner isn't saying that Solar Cycle 25 will
    likewise be a dud. But, rather, "these early sunspot numbers are not
    enough to guarantee a strong cycle."

    David Moore shared this article about a big solar event over 9,000
    years ago discovered via ice core analysis:

    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2022/01/220126144204.htm

    Update from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/QgJEkh1rNZg

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
    please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
    an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for January 27 through February 2, 2022 were 85, 77,
    74, 70, 100, 88, and 75, with a mean of 81.3. 10.7 cm flux was
    107.1, 113.4, 125.3, 129.6, 129.5, 128.6, and 128.2, with a mean of
    123.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 8, 17, 10, 10, 7, and
    12, with a mean of 10.1. Middle latitude A index was 5, 5, 7, 7, 3,
    10, and 8, with a mean of 6.4.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Feb 11 13:27:58 2022
    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP006
    ARLP006 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP06
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 6 ARLP006
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA February 11, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP006
    ARLP006 Propagation de K7RA

    Three new sunspot groups appeared this week, on February 3, 6 and 8.
    Average daily sunspot number rose slightly from 81.3 last week to
    83.9 in this reporting week, February 3-9.

    Average daily solar flux increased from 123.1 to 126, also a modest
    change.

    Solar flares and geomagnetic storms through the week raised the
    average daily planetary A index from 10.1 to 14.4, and the middle
    latitude A index, measured at one location in Virginia, went from
    6.4 to 9.6.

    At 0523 UTC on February 11 the Australian Space Forecast Centre
    issued a Geomagnetic Disturbance Warning: "A recurrent coronal hole
    is expected to cause unsettled to active conditions with possible
    minor storm periods on 12 to 13 February."

    A geomagnetic storm on February 4 brought down 40 of the low earth
    orbit Starlink satellites, even though the storm was not especially
    robust. But from February 3-4, the high latitude college A index
    measured near Fairbanks, Alaska was 48 and 61, respectively, a level
    that assures the appearance of aurora borealis.

    NN4X sent this on the LEO satellites loss:

    https://bit.ly/3GCIQkd

    Normally we think of geo-storms as a negative event regarding HF
    propagation, but not always, as sometimes there is propagation via
    bouncing signals off the aurora.

    K7SS commented at 2030 UTC on February 10 in an email posting
    titled, "EU aurora on 10 meter CW.

    "Weak OH, SM, UA, opening now. All aurora sounding. Point 'em North
    boys."

    "All aurora sounding" refers to the unusual garbled fluttery sounds
    of auroral propagation, and then advice to point your antenna north
    to propagate signals via the aurora.

    W7YED responded:

    "Yeah, I saw 2 SM3s at around 2100 UTC calling CQ on 10m FT8. One
    worked an XE, lasted about 5 minutes then went away. And now back to
    the regularly scheduled Caribbean and SA stations. Things are
    looking up on 10!"

    So far in the year 2022 sunspots were visible on every day. Last
    year 64 days had no sunspots, and in 2020, 208 days were spotless,
    according to spaceweather.com.

    Predicted solar flux values for the near term are 118 and 116 on
    February 11-12, 112 on February 13-14, 110 on February 15-16, 112 on
    February 17, 115 on February 18-19, 118 on February 20, 120 on
    February 21-23, 125 on February 24-25, 120 on February 26 through
    March 4, then 115 and 122 on March 5-6, 120 on March 7-9, 110 on
    March 10-11, 115 on March 12-18, 118 on March 19, and 120 on March
    20-22.

    Predicted planetary A index is 20, 12, 22 and 25 on February 11-14,
    then 20, 12, 8, 10 and 8 on February 15-19, then 5, 10, 8, 5, 8 and
    12 on February 20-25, then 8 on February 26-27, 5 on February 28 to
    March 2, then 12, 10, 15 and 10 on March 3-6, 5 on March 7-11, then
    25 and 20 on March 12-13, 5 on March 14-15, then 10, 12 and 8 on
    March 16-18.

    From F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

    "I would like to return once again to the solar flare M1 in AR2936
    on January 29, accompanied by LDE (long-running event) see: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/space-weather-glossary, which
    caused the halo CME. The CME was met near Earth by 49 Starlink
    satellites launched into low Earth orbit from the Kennedy Space
    Center in Florida on February 3.

    "As a result, 40 of them did not get into the planned orbit and then
    burned in the atmosphere in a controlled manner. The cost to launch
    the Falcon 9 is $30 million dollars, one satellite is half a million
    dollars, total damage to Elon Musk costs $50 million dollars.

    "Solar activity in Solar Cycle 25 is rising faster than most models
    expected. More accurate predictions of further developments are
    complicated by the fact that there are several irregularly evolving
    active areas on the Sun at the same time. For this reason, too, we
    cannot rely on the twenty-seven-day periodicity, which is otherwise
    a good tool for compiling forecasts.

    "If we take advantage of it, we can expect the next major
    disturbance on 13-14 February. The beginning of calm can be expected
    since February 16 and quiet days since February 19. Solar flux
    should not fall below 100 or rise too high above 130."

    Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, with a great update, all 93 minutes:

    https://youtu.be/uY3TMaExHkg

    N8II reported from West Virginia on February 7:

    "I was active in the VT, MN, and BC QSO Parties this past weekend.
    Conditions were excellent to MN on 20M with loud signals from 1500
    UTC until about 2230 UTC (our sunset was 2237 UTC). Even the mobiles
    were very good copy, many quite loud on 20M. 40M suffered from D/E
    layer absorption with almost all MN signals below my noise level
    from 1700-2030 UTC. 80M was open well before MN sunset with workable
    signals at 2300 UTC and some very good signals by 2330 UTC.

    "15 and even 10 M were open to British Columbia both weekend days.
    The peak of 10M propagation was in the 1900 UTC hour both days with
    Saturday being better on both 20 and 15M. Several BC 10M signals
    were over S9 on Saturday. There were many USA Rocky Mountain area
    and west coast signals on the band as well. 20M conditions were
    excellent Saturday from 1600-2400 UTC. 15/10 were slow to open
    Sunday finally opening around 1830 UTC.

    "Propagation to VT was about as expected, some loud signals
    0000-0030 UTC on 40M, VT stations on 75/80M were mostly loud. 160M
    signals were fairly weak Friday PM. There was no miracle Es opening
    like last year, 20M was open on backscatter only and W1JXN was
    worked on 15M CW backscatter just above the noise.

    "Sunday morning, the 6th there was a good opening to southern Europe
    on 10M. I had a SSB run from 1515-1550 UTC working Croatia,
    Switzerland, Spain, and many French and Italian stations. Many
    signals were over S9. 12M in the past few days has been open to at
    least southern EU daily.

    "Last Friday, February 4, 10M was wide open to New Caledonia from
    2130-2245 UTC. I easily logged FK8IK on both CW and SSB, and FK4QX
    on SSB. This followed loud signals from the western USA."

    Images of recent sunspot regions:

    http://www.hkastroforum.net/viewtopic.php?f=28&p=321591

    Study offers explanation for unusual motions in solar flares, oddly
    referred to as "Solar Flames":

    https://bit.ly/3uHX5SI

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
    please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
    an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for February 3 through 9, 2022 were 84, 87, 91, 83,
    78, 86, and 78, with a mean of 83.9. 10.7 cm flux was 126.5, 129.6,
    125.9, 123.6, 127.2, 123.1, and 125.9, with a mean of 126. Estimated
    planetary A indices were 27, 32, 12, 15, 7, 5, and 3, with a mean of
    14.4. Middle latitude A index was 18, 18, 10, 12, 4, 3, and 2, with
    a mean of 9.6.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Feb 18 13:40:28 2022

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP007
    ARLP007 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP07
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 7 ARLP007
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA February 18, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP007
    ARLP007 Propagation de K7RA

    Although solar activity was generally lower this week, new sunspots
    appeared. A sunspot group emerged on February 10, two more on
    February 11, two more on February 14 and three more on February 16,
    when the daily sunspot number rose to 111, the highest value for
    this reporting week and well above the weekly average, which was
    75.3. The average for the previous week was 83.9. On February 17
    another new sunspot region emerged, but the daily sunspot number
    declined from 111 to 103.

    The 111 sunspot number was the highest since the end of 2021, when
    sunspot numbers went as high as 147 following a few days of no
    sunspots at all.

    On Thursday night (February 17) the Daily Sun image on
    Spaceweather.com showed seven sunspot groups, the whole Earth facing
    side of the Sun peppered with spots.

    Average daily solar flux declined from 126 to 110.1. Average daily
    planetary A index went from 14.4 to 13, and average daily middle
    latitude A index declined just 1.3 points to 8.3.

    Why do we care about sunspot numbers? Because high values correlate
    with greater density in the ionosphere, which gives us better
    propagation at higher frequencies. 64 years ago, sunspot numbers
    were so high that hams saw worldwide around the clock propagation on
    the 10 meter band. Sunspot numbers were never so high before or
    since. That was the peak of Solar Cycle 19. Newly licensed hams
    thought it would always be like that. It never was.

    Predicted solar flux over the next month was downgraded from
    February 16-17 forecasts, and is 95 on February 18-19, 98 on
    February 20, 102 on February 21-23, 105 on February 24, 108 on
    February 25-27, 110 on February 28, 115 on March 1-2, 112 and 110 on
    March 3-4, 108 on March 5-8, 105 on March 9-11, 103 on March 12-13,
    100 on March 14, 98 on March 15-16, 102 on March 17-19, 104 on March
    20-22, 108 on March 23-26 and 110 on March 27.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on February 18-19, then 18, 15 and
    12 on February 20-22, then 10, 8 and 10 on February 23-25, 15 and 10
    on February 24-25, 5 on February 26 to March 2, then 12, 15, 10 and
    8 on March 3-6, 5 on March 7-10, then 15, 12 and 10 on March 11-13,
    5 on March 14-18, then 8, 5, 12, 15, 18 and 10 on March 19-24, and 5
    on March 25-29.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere, February 10, 2022, from OK1HH:

    "Solar activity has reached a moderate level, including occurrence
    of M-class flares. The activity on the far side of the Sun was
    greater, as evidenced by CME observations beyond the eastern limb of
    the solar disk, which do not affect the Earth's ionosphere.

    "We observed exceptionally bad conditions of ionospheric propagation
    in the bands of 80 meters and especially 160 meters on the night of
    February 14-15, UTC. The cause was a several-day decrease in solar
    radiation (X-ray level), accompanied by a decrease in the speed of
    the solar wind, as a source of ionization by particles. The
    improvement started in the morning of February 15, beginning from
    the eastern direction when the ionosphere was irradiated by the Sun
    again.

    "Solar activity is expected to rise only slowly in the coming days,
    reaching a flat quasi-peak maximum in early March. The activity of
    the Earth's magnetic field should increase irregularly and only
    slightly again on 20-21 and 24-25 February (according to other
    sources on February 22-24), causing only the usual fluctuations in
    the level of propagation conditions."

    NN4X reported on February 16:

    "I was a little late to the party on 10m, having started checking
    propagation on 12m first.

    "Conditions were excellent this morning, easily the best 10m Long
    Path opening I've ever seen.

    "I was fortunate to have FT8 QSOs with these stations this morning:

    "BF7IEJ (1304 UTC)
    YC9AUB (1306 UTC)
    YC1THS (1319 UTC)
    YC7UDD (1346 UTC)
    VK3EW (1419 UTC)
    JK1OZS (1344 UTC)
    VR2CH (1307 UTC)
    VR2XYL (1305 UTC)
    VR2VAZ (1339 UTC)

    "I also worked VR2CH on 10m LP on Tuesday, 02/15/2022. Great fun!

    "I wanted to pass this along because I found it so interesting.
    While monitoring 12m FT8 around 1905 UTC this afternoon, with the
    antenna pointed 90 degrees, looking for African stations, I noticed
    YB0DJ decode.

    "I proceeded to work him, and he was gone shortly thereafter. I've
    never seen a long path opening so far away from sunrise to sunset.
    Using PSKR, we can see at least some of the extent of that opening
    (note that the daylight/nighttime shading is for the time I ran the
    search).

    "From K7RA, he sent an image of the map, which I have no way of
    presenting here.

    "YB0DJ 2/16/2022 1905 UTC 24.915 MHz"

    N0JK reported on February 17:

    "A sporadic-E opening occurred on February 13 UTC.

    "I logged W4IMD (EM84) on 50.313 MHz at 0141 UTC. The only Es
    station worked on 6 Meters. Then on 17 Meters worked KC5LT (EM86) at
    0228 UTC on FT8 on Es. Sporadic-E openings are rare in the month of
    February. 73, Jon, N0JK, EM28, Kansas."

    Check out this video about a ViewProp, a promising new propagation
    analysis tool: https://youtu.be/McUB2eY5atk .

    There is also an email list for it: https://groups.io/g/viewprop .
    Thanks to ARRL Contest Update for the information.

    A reader named Neil J. shared this:

    https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/aiahmi/

    A new robotic system at Sunspot, New Mexico observatory:

    https://bit.ly/33v3x4i

    This weekend is the CW portion of the ARRL International DX Contest.
    Details can be found here:

    http://www.arrl.org/arrl-dx

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
    please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
    an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for February 10 through 16, 2022 were 78, 86, 54,
    53, 72, 73, and 111, with a mean of 75.3. 10.7 cm flux was 118,
    113.1, 110.5, 105.4, 106.5, 114.3, and 102.9, with a mean of 110.1.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 21, 20, 13, 15, 8, 5, and 9, with
    a mean of 13. Middle latitude A index was 12, 12, 10, 9, 6, 3, and
    6, with a mean of 8.3.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Mon Feb 28 15:37:57 2022

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP008
    ARLP008 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP08
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 8 ARLP008
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA February 28, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP008
    ARLP008 Propagation de K7RA

    New sunspot groups appeared on February 17, 19, 20 and 21, but solar
    activity declined, even though sunspots were seen covering the sun
    every day.

    Average daily sunspot number declined 21 points from 75.3 last week
    to 54.3 in the current reporting week, February 17-23. Average daily
    solar flux was down nearly 15 points from 110.1 to 95.4. On
    Thursday, February 24 the decline in sunspot numbers continued to
    23, 31.3 points below the average in the previous seven days.

    Average daily planetary A index went from 13 to 9.6, and average
    daily middle latitude A index was off by one point to 7.3.

    Predicted solar flux is 95 on February 25, 100 on February 26-27,
    105 on February 28 through March 2, 110 on March 3-4, 108 on March
    5-8, 105 on March 9-11, 103 on March 12-13, 100 on March 14, 98 on
    March 15-16, 102 on March 17-19, 104 on March 20-22, 108 on March
    23-26, 110 on March 27, 115 on March 28-29, then 112 and 110 on
    March 30-31, then 108 on April 1-4.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 and 10 on February 25-26, 8 on
    February 27 through March 3, 10 on March 4-5, 8 on March 6, 5 on
    March 7-10, then 15, 12 and 10 on March 11-13, 5 on March 14-18,
    then 8, 5, 12, 18, 15 and 10 on March 19-24, 5 on March 25-29, then
    12, 15, 10 and 8 on March 30 through April 2, and 5 on April 3-6.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere, February 24, 2022 from OK1HH.

    "Solar activity gradually declined to very low levels with a slight
    chance of Class C flares. The solar wind speed and particle density
    fluctuate irregularly. The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor
    storm levels. Total solar radiation, accompanied by an irregular
    occurrence of enhanced geomagnetic activity caused a subsequent
    gradual decrease to overall below-average shortwave propagation
    conditions. A slight improvement can be expected in connection with
    seasonal changes with the approaching Spring Equinox."

    I regularly check propagation on 10-meters using FT8, low power, and
    a modest full wave end fed wire antenna that is mostly indoors on
    the second floor of my home.

    Sometimes I will see my coverage on pskreporter.info/pskmap.html
    concentrated in an area 2000-2300 miles away in Georgia and South
    Carolina, which is what I saw on February 24 around 1830 UTC. 24
    hours earlier I saw only two reception reports, none in the USA,
    with one station down in central Mexico and the other way down in
    Southern Argentina around 53 degrees south latitude. Very odd, but
    this being 10-meters, soon the coverage changed and I saw coverage
    across the East Coast.

    Using this same modest antenna on 40 meters, where it is one quarter
    wave long, at 0330 UTC on February 25 I see coverage all over the
    United States, but only one station reporting my signal in Europe,
    at -17 dB from IZ1CRR in JN35td.

    On IZ1CRR's QRZ.com page he says he is a shortwave listener, and not
    to call him on FT8 as he is listening only.

    Even if you are not an FT8 operator, you could use pskreporter.info
    to discover propagation paths on different bands from your local
    area by searching for signals received from your grid square over
    the previous 15 minutes. This assumes there are other stations in
    your grid square active at the time.

    In grid square CN87 in my area, there seem to be active local
    stations on at all times on every band. You should probably look for
    stronger signals with positive signal levels if you plan to use CW
    or SSB.

    Solar eruption in the news:

    https://abc7.com/solar-eruption-sun-image-sunspot/11589207/

    Here is an article about instability of sunspots:

    https://bit.ly/3LXYEC4

    Here is a blog post about recent solar events:

    https://bit.ly/3t9ERHa

    Details on the new Maui solar telescope:

    https://bit.ly/3ImQxNb

    Here is the February 21 update from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/wJaV5RnIEFE

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
    please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
    an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for February 17 through 23, 2022 were 103, 53, 51,
    49, 48, 38, and 38, with a mean of 54.3. 10.7 cm flux was 96.7,
    93.3, 95.7, 93.3, 97.8, 95.3, and 95.5, with a mean of 95.4.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 6, 9, 13, 12, 16, and 6, with
    a mean of 9.6. Middle latitude A index was 4, 5, 6, 8, 11, 13, and
    4, with a mean of 7.3.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Mar 4 08:26:10 2022

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP009
    ARLP009 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP09
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 9 ARLP009
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA March 4, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP009
    ARLP009 Propagation de K7RA

    Solar activity was weaker this reporting week (February 24 through
    March 2) with average daily sunspot numbers weakening from 54.3 to
    44, but average daily solar flux rising slightly from 95.4 to 98.5.

    Geomagnetic numbers were moderate. Average daily planetary A index
    declined from 9.6 to 7.3, and middle latitude index from 7.3 to 5.6.

    Predicted solar flux is 110 on March 4, 108 on March 5-7, then 106,
    104 and 100 on March 8-10, 99 on March 11-13, 98 on March 14, 95 on
    March 15-16, then 96, 97, 98 and 99 on March 17-20, 100 on March
    21-22, then 101 and 100 on March 23-24, 102 on March 25-26, then 99
    and 102 on March 27-28, 105 on March 29-31, 102 on April 1-2, 101 on
    April 3-4, then 100 on April 5-6, and 99 on April 7-9.

    Predicted planetary A index is 12 on March 4-6, 10 on March 7, 5 on
    March 8-10, then 10, 12, 8, 5 and 8 on March 11-15, 5 on March
    16-17, 10 on March 18, 15 on March 19-21, 7 on March 22-24, then 5
    and 10 on March 25-26, 12 on March 27-28, 8 on March 29-30, 12 on
    March 31, 15 on April 1-2, then 5 on April 3-6, then 18, 15 and 8 on
    April 7-9.

    Here is the weekly commentary from OK1HH:

    "The decline in solar activity in the second half of February might
    have surprised us if it were not for the information about the
    increased eruptive activity on the far side of the Sun. The farside
    sunspots images were taken mainly by the STEREO-A spacecraft,
    starting with the huge farside explosion, when the spacecraft
    recorded a spectacular coronal mass ejection (CME) appearing in the
    late hours of 15 February.

    "One day later Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) gave us a
    better view of the explosion on the far side. SOHO coronagraphs have
    recorded the most dramatic CME in recent years. The activity
    observed beyond the eastern edge of the solar disk looked promising
    several times, but after the spot groups actually came out, we
    experienced only occasional eruptions of class C.

    "The Earth's magnetic field activity fluctuated irregularly and
    attempts to predict further developments failed. Conditions for
    shortwave propagation began to improve in early March, but this was
    mainly due to seasonal changes."

    Here is a link to see a new telescope:

    https://bit.ly/3ICJ5O6

    Check out the Solar Orbiter from European Space Agency:

    https://www.esa.int/Science_Exploration/Space_Science/Solar_Orbiter

    Jeff, WA2BOT, in Connecticut wrote on March 2:

    "Wow!

    "10 Meters Long Path from East Coast USA to the Far East was amazing
    today!

    "I noticed 10 meters was open to Europe at 1143Z when I first
    checked band conditions.

    "Operating on FT8 from Grid FN32, between 1310 GMT to 1348 GMT using
    FT8. During the opening I worked: BD7MXA, VR2XYL, VR2ZXP, VR2UBC,
    VR2XRW, VR2CH, JA7QVI, and 12 other stations in Japan.

    "Solar Cycle 25 is just getting started and 10 meters is again,
    WOW!"

    See stunning loops of plasma:

    https://bit.ly/35OpX0V

    Here is information about the termination event:

    https://bit.ly/3KgQrqU

    This is from a 2020 paper on "Overlapping Magnetic Activity Cycles
    and the Sunspot Number," and now the paper's authors have announced
    the termination event between Solar Cycles 24 and 25 has arrived:

    https://bit.ly/35KqfpJ

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
    please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net .

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
    an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for February 24 through March 2, 2022 were 23, 22,
    22, 48, 65, 62, and 66, with a mean of 44. 10.7 cm flux was 92.3,
    96.2, 96.5, 96.9, 99, 99.3, and 109.5, with a mean of 98.5.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 8, 3, 13, 8, 8, and 4, with a
    mean of 7.3. Middle latitude A index was 6, 7, 1, 11, 5, 6, and 3,
    with a mean of 5.6.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Mar 11 12:57:53 2022

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP010
    ARLP010 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP10
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 10 ARLP010
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA March 11, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP010
    ARLP010 Propagation de K7RA

    On March 11 at 0431 UTC Australia's Space Forecast Centre issued
    this warning:

    "A slow coronal mass ejection has been observed late on 10 march,
    and event modeling suggests arrival at the Earth late on 13 March.
    Increased geomagnetic activity is expected for 14 March 2022."

    We observed an active Sun this week. Geomagnetic indicators peaked
    on Saturday, March 5 when Alaska's high latitude college A index
    reached 42.

    Again this week, sunspots covered the Sun every day. Average daily
    sunspot numbers rose from 44 to 87.4, and average daily solar flux
    went from 98.5 to 115.5. Geomagnetic indicators were also higher.
    Average daily planetary A index increased from 7.3 to 11.4.

    Predicted solar flux is 120 on March 11-12, 115 on March 13, 110 on
    March 14-16, 105 on March 17, 100 on March 18-21, then 101 and 103
    on March 22-23, 104 on March 24-27, then 110, 115 and 116 on March
    28-30, 118 on March 31 through April 1, 120 on April 2, 116 on April
    3-4, then 115 and 112 on April 5-6, 110 on April 7-9, then 108, 102,
    98 and 99 on April 10-13 then 100 on April 14-17.

    Predicted planetary A index is 12 on March 11, 5 on March 12-13,
    then 10, 18, 15, 5 and 8 on March 14-18, then 12 on March 19-20, 15
    on March 21, 7 on March 22-24, then 5, 10 and 8 on March 25-27, 5 on
    March 28-29, then 10, 12, 25, 20 and 10 on March 30 through April 3,
    5 on April 4-6, then 15, 20 and 12 on April 7-9, and 5 on April
    10-13, then 8 on April 14, and 10 on April 15-16.

    OK1HH wrote, "The power density of solar radio noise at a wavelength
    of 10.7 cm, more briefly referred to as 'solar flux,' remains above
    110 for a week. Because we see two more active areas beyond the
    eastern limb of the solar disk (thanks to the STEREO Ahead
    satellite), solar flux should stay that way for another week.

    "The concurrence of increased solar activity with seasonal changes
    during the approaching equinox results in improved conditions for
    short-wave ionospheric propagation.

    "Occasional irregular occurrences of a slight increase in
    geomagnetic activity (as was the case on March 5-6) cause only a
    slight deterioration. Possible recurrent disturbance is expected
    until the beginning of April, probably already in its first days."

    Russ Hunt, WQ3X wrote on March 4, "Yesterday I heard WA2BOT on 10m
    FT8 working DX on the long path and aimed my beam due south. In just
    over a half hour's time I worked 33 JAs, 2 DUs and VR2XYL. I had a
    pileup 6 deep at times using 250w and 5 element Yagi at 50'. It was
    probably the most exciting time I've had in the last 20 yrs. Today I
    worked two more VR2s and 3 JAs also LP just after sunrise. Love them
    'spots.'"

    A few hours later he wrote, "During the middle of the day we get
    some VK/ZLs starting around 3 PM local time. But try sunrise and
    sunset and you will find a lot of DX.

    "I hear the 6s and 7s working a lot of Asia in the evening. Here we
    get EU, Africa, and the middle east in the mornings. I've done WAC
    about 4 or 5 times a week, but now running out of new stations to
    work."

    Robert Strickland, KE2WY asked about a good source for the latest
    daily sunspot numbers, and I sent him to this site:

    https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/daily-solar-indices.txt

    On March 10, N9II sent some observations of last week's DX contest,
    only a small portion presented here.

    "I operated single band 15M in the ARRL DX contest but made a few
    QSOs on other bands. 20M was open well to Africa and south in the
    0100 UTC hour Saturday, some very loud Caribbean signals. 10M was
    open for many hours to the south some booming signals even from LP
    stations in Puerto Rico and Turks and Caicos and many HP stations
    like J68HZ, St Lucia, PJ4G on Bonaire, and PJ2T, Curacao.

    "On 15M, a disturbance and slightly low solar flux made for some
    challenging conditions to Asia and northern Europe.

    "Saturday evening the disturbance rendered Japan nearly completely
    closed, with Sunday evening conditions fair with most signals less
    than S9.

    "I made 600 15M QSOs working 86 countries.

    "On 10M CW starting 1414 UTC on March 8 I worked 3 new ones in a
    row: 7Q6M, Malawi, 5X1NA, Uganda, and JY5HX, Jordan.

    "Then on 10 SSB, Dov, 4Z4DX, Israel, on 10 CW V26K, Antigua, and
    OA1F in Peru.

    "Later on 17 CW V4/G0TLE, St. Kitts, then topping off with E51BQ on
    South Cook Islands on 10 SSB at 2325 UTC.

    "On 12m CW on the 9th at 1550 UTC I worked V26K. I called CQ on 10
    SSB at 1557 UTC and was called by Spain, then Francisco, TT8FC in
    Chad, ZS1PPY, South Africa, then 3B8HE in Mauritius. Today, the 10th
    featured excellent high band propagation with today's solar flux
    climbing to 127. I heard Indonesia peaking S8 on 15M SSB at 1340
    UTC, then worked 4L1AN in Georgia at 1344 UTC (new), VU2DSI, India,
    at 1353 UTC.

    "Turning to 10M SSB, I found Selki, S01WS, Southern Sahara, and
    CU1EZ, Azores for #100 on 10 SSB. Then at 1551 UTC for the next hour
    10M blew wide open to Europe starting with Bulgaria, Italy, and
    Hungary.

    "Several stations with simple end fed wires were S9 and the loudest
    signals were S9+20 dB or a bit stronger. This was one of the best
    openings all Winter, but others were more widespread farther north."

    Here is an email list for operators of, or anyone interested in, HF
    beacons:

    https://www.freelists.org/webpage/hfbeacons

    The Vernal Equinox is in a little over a week, 1533 UTC on Sunday,
    March 20, when Earth will be bathed in an equal amount of solar
    radiation over both southern and northern hemispheres, good for HF
    propagation. It is the first day of Spring in the northern
    hemisphere and Fall in the southern.

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
    please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net .

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
    an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for March 3 through 9, 2022 were 92, 77, 95, 82, 84,
    93, and 89, with a mean of 87.4. 10.7 cm flux was 110.9, 113.1,
    120.1, 115.7, 118.3, 115.3, and 114.8, with a mean of 115.5.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 10, 27, 18, 9, 6, and 5, with
    a mean of 11.4. Middle latitude A index was 3, 7, 19, 13, 7, 5, and
    4, with a mean of 8.3.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Mar 18 10:57:09 2022

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP011
    ARLP011 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP11
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 11 ARLP011
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA March 18, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP011
    ARLP011 Propagation de K7RA

    We saw plenty of sunspot activity this week, along with numerous
    solar flares.

    A confounding indicator was a higher average solar flux but lower
    average sunspot numbers. We expect to see them track together, but
    that isn't always the case.

    Average daily sunspot number went from 87.4 last week to 74.6 in the
    latest reporting period, March 10-16.

    Average daily solar flux increased from 115.5 to 119.

    A new sunspot group appeared on March 12, another on March 13, and
    two more on March 14. Total sunspot area (in millionths of the solar
    disc) declined through the week, starting at 1170 on March 10, then
    1080, 1040, 940, 670, 490 and 290. So, the decline continued even
    through days that revealed new sunspots.

    March 13 was the day with the greatest geomagnetic disturbance with
    middle latitude A index at 30, planetary A index at 40, and Alaska's
    college A index at 65. The A index is calculated from the K index,
    updated every 3 hours. In Alaska, the K was 0 in the first three
    readings, at 0000, 0300 and 0600 UTC, then jumped dramatically to 5,
    7, 7, and 5 for the rest of the day. K index is logarithmic, and 7
    is a very big number, indicating a geomagnetic storm.

    The solar flux prediction peaks at 125 on April 6-8 but starting
    today the predicted flux is 108 on March 18-19, 95 on March 20-26,
    100 on March 27-28, 110 on March 29-30, 115 on March 31, then 120,
    115 and 120 on April 1-3, 115 on April 4-5, 125 on April 6-8, 120 on
    April 9-11, 115 on April 12-14, 110 on April 15-17, 100 on April 18,
    then 95 on April 19-22 and 100 on April 23-24.

    Predicted planetary A index is 10 on March 18-19, then 15, 12 and 8
    on March 20-22, 5 on March 23-25, 10 and 8 on March 26-27, 5 on
    March 28-30, then 10, 25, 15 and 8 on March 31 through April 3, 5 on
    April 4-15, 12 on April 16-17, 8 on April 18, then 5 on April 19-21,
    then 10 and 8 on April 22-23.

    The Vernal Equinox will occur at 1533 UTC on Sunday, March 20, a
    good sign for HF propagation as we move from Winter to Spring
    conditions in the Northern Hemisphere.

    From F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

    "Undoubtedly, the most dramatic phenomenon of the last seven days
    was the arrival of a CME on March 13, which broke away from the Sun
    on March 10-11. It caused a medium (G2) geomagnetic storm. In its
    positive phase, when MUF values increased during the UTC afternoon
    until evening, while the overall ionospheric propagation of
    decameter waves improved overall. In the following negative phase on
    March 14-15, they deteriorated significantly. A return to normal has
    been observed since March 16.

    "A CME could do more than just ignite the bright Aurora Borealis. It
    also lowered the level of cosmic rays. A Neutron monitor at the
    Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory in Oulu, Finland, saw a sharp
    decline in cosmic rays shortly after the CME arrived: It's called
    the 'Forbush Decline' named after the American physicist Scott
    Forbush, who studied cosmic rays in the early 20th century. It
    happens when a cloud of coronal matter pushes galactic cosmic rays
    away from our planet. The cosmic rays fell sharply on March 13, then
    rose sharply at noon on March 14, then fell sharply again (we
    attribute this fluctuation to the more complex structure of the CME
    cloud). The cosmic rays remained depressed for 2 (partly to 4) days
    after the arrival of the CME.

    "The consequences of the coming of a CME in the Earth's
    magnetosphere and ionosphere were now, near the Vernal Equinox, more
    pronounced than they would have been at any other time of year."

    I (K7RA) was experimenting with FT8 and PSKreporter.info on Friday,
    March 11 on 10 meters and noticed at 2145 UTC my low power signal
    with a very modest antenna was heard over a narrow arc running from
    Northern Virginia and central Texas, plus reports from two stations
    in New Zealand and several in South America. 15 minutes later the
    only report was from K1HTV in Virginia. By 2224 UTC the only reports
    were from two local Western Washington stations, at 4 and 54 miles
    away.

    On March 15 using the same setup on 10 meters at 1651 UTC the only
    station outside the local area hearing me was XE1ACA, 2,344 miles
    away.

    Often when coverage is marginal on 10 meters, 12 meters will be
    open.

    At 1730 UTC on 12 meters, I was heard over a broad arc of stations
    1800-2400 miles away running from New Hampshire to South Texas, plus
    XE2BCS and XE1GK at 1757 and 2003 miles and NH6Y in Hawaii at 2654
    miles. That arc of coverage was only 600 miles wide.

    On March 14, VE1VDM reported unstable 10 meter conditions. "As of
    1600 UTC (1:00 PM local) today I have not had one RBN report on
    28.173 MHz or one WSPR report on 28.126.130 MHz.

    "The band has really tanked here in Nova Scotia."

    N0JK reported on March 13:

    "N0LL (EM09) decoded a number of South American stations on 50.313
    MHz FT8 around 0040 UTC March 13. This included CE3SX (FF46),
    CE0YHF/CE3, CE2SV and LU5FF. Larry was away from the radio when this
    occurred. Suspect an Es link to TEP. He then worked XE2TT (DL44) on
    Es at 0117 UTC. I monitored during this time frame. No South America
    but did decode K3VN (EL98) around 0050 UTC on Es."

    Also from Jon on the same day:

    "A rare March sporadic-E opening on 6 meters the afternoon of the
    11th from Kansas to W1, W2, W3 and W8.

    "Here in Lawrence, I worked K3ISH FN21 and KE8FD EN80 on 50.313 MHz
    FT8 around 2100 UT. Copied a few others.

    "WQ0P (EM19) was in a better spot for it, He worked W1, W2, W3, W4
    and W8.

    "No rare DX, but any sporadic-E opening in March is noteworthy. The
    month of March has the lowest occurrence of sporadic-E of any month
    of the year.

    "See: https://www.qsl.net/pjdyer/ .

    "If the Es cloud had been located to the southeast, a potential
    link-up with afternoon TEP was possible. Did not see anyone working
    South America."

    A tribute to Astronomers Walter and Annie Maunder:

    https://bit.ly/3ihvjVO

    David Moore sent this about another astronomer:

    https://www.space.com/eugene-parker-solar-probe-scientist-dead

    The latest report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, Space Weather
    Woman:

    https://youtu.be/1VsmS6xl34s

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
    please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
    an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for March 10 through 16, 2022 were 90, 81, 93, 64,
    82, 71, and 41, with a mean of 74.6. 10.7 cm flux was 127.1, 126.5,
    124.7, 122.9, 114.9, 110.4, and 106.6, with a mean of 119. Estimated
    planetary A indices were 10, 20, 13, 40, 14, 7, and 5, with a mean
    of 15.6. Middle latitude A index was 7, 15, 7, 30, 13, 5, and 3,
    with a mean of 11.4.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Mar 25 10:53:27 2022

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP012
    ARLP012 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP12
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 12 ARLP012
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA March 25, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP012
    ARLP012 Propagation de K7RA

    Solar and geomagnetic activity were much quieter over the reporting
    week, March 17-23.

    Average daily sunspot number declined by more than half, from 74.6
    to 33.4, and average daily solar flux over 19 points from 119 to
    99.9.

    On Wednesday March 23, Spaceweather.com reported a large emerging
    sunspot crossing our Sun's eastern limb.

    Predicted solar flux is 112 on March 25-27, 110 on March 28 to April
    1, 115 on April 2-5, 125 on April 6-9, 115 and 110 on April 10-11,
    105 on April 12-13, 100 on April 14, 95 on April 15-16, 100 on April
    17-18, 101 on April 19, 102 on April 20-22, 100 on April 23-24, and
    110 on April 25-26, then 115 and 120 on April 27-28, and 115 on
    April 29 through May 2.

    Predicted planetary A index is 10, 12, 10 and 8 on March 25-28, 5 on
    March 29 through April 1, 15 and 8 on April 2-3, then 5 again on
    April 4-17, then 8, 10 and 8 on April 18-20, and 5 on April 21-26,
    then 10, 20, 12 and 8 on April 27-30.

    From OK1HH:

    "Solar activity went through a quasi-periodic twenty-seven-day low
    around March 20. Then it started to rise slightly. Sunspots are now
    observed only in the eastern half of the solar disk, in addition,
    the solar observation mission STEREO-A (Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory) observes further activity beyond the eastern limb of
    the solar disk. Therefore, the total solar activity will increase
    until the end of the month.

    "Shortwave propagation conditions were above average until March 21.
    Then the subsequent decrease in solar activity together with a
    slight increase in geomagnetic activity caused their slight
    deterioration.

    "We will see improvements in the coming days. This development will
    end in a recurrent disturbance around April 1. Expected storm could,
    at best, begin with a positive phase of development with further
    improvement and growth of the MUF."

    W4NPN in Chapel Hill, North Carolina reported he heard my K7RA/B
    beacon very weakly at 1949 UTC on 28.2833 MHz. Previously I had
    checked 10 meter FT8 coverage and saw nothing on the
    pskreporter.info map. But around the time of his report, I saw very
    narrow coverage via FT8 only around North Carolina, nowhere else in
    North America.

    Grand Minimum on a nearby star? See https://bit.ly/37TFKwB

    Jon Jones, N0JK reported on March 22:

    "6 Meters opened between the east coast and northern Brazil March
    21.

    "I believe this is the first 6M F2 opening of Solar Cycle 25 for
    continental USA. It was between southeast states and northern South
    America, Brazil, PV8DX:

    "PV8DX 22/03/21 1850 UTC 50110.0 59+ 73 QSY 105 KW4BY
    PV8DX 22/03/21 1848 UTC 50110.0 WW3A
    PV8DX 22/03/21 1843 UTC 50110.0 N4IS
    PV8DX 22/03/21 1840 UTC 50110.0 here now loud! KD4ESV

    "This opening had all the hallmarks of F2. Distance one F2 hop, time
    of day right for F2, right season (March) and extremely loud
    signals. No Es were reported. The opening lasted about an hour and
    reached north to WW1L and west to KA9FOX in Wisconsin. Most of the
    contacts were in the southeast states. Solar Flux was 95, K index
    2.

    "On March 19, I had HC1MD/2 in on 50.313 MHz FT8 around 2045 UTC.
    Very, very weak with decodes of -24 dB. I wonder if this was F2
    forward scatter (above the MUF) propagation?"

    Dan, K1TO, in EL87, noted he had HC (Ecuador) stations in loud on 6
    Meters March 19 and 20. So, March 19 may be the first day of 6 Meter
    F2 from the continental USA:

    "HCs very loud on 3/20 = Equinox. +30 dB (on FT8) 1839-1918Z HC:
    1MD/2 2AO 2DR 2FG 5VF.

    "HCs also +30 the day before on 3/19 1904-2013z. HC1MD/2 2AO 2DR.
    HC2PY only peaked +25.

    "These reports are consistent to me for direct single hop F2 on 50
    MHz from Florida to Ecuador. So, March 19 was the first for Solar
    Cycle 25."

    WB8VLC in Salem, Oregon has been having fun on 10 meter FM, using a
    4 element OWA Yagi at 30 feet. He reports:

    "January through March have been pretty much worldwide DX on 10
    meters here in Oregon with NUMEROUS Europe, Africa, South America,
    South Pacific, and Asia stations worked on 10 meter CW and SSB from
    January 2022 to March 20th.

    "The purpose of this update is to spread some info on 10 meter FM
    activity which has been as good or better than SSB/CW activity.

    "Since early January ZL2OK in New Zealand has been worked twice on
    29.6 FM in January and February 2022.

    "Most days there are several South American, Caribbean, and numerous
    US and Canadian hams worked on 29.6 FM while in the evening hours it
    is all Asia with Japan and South Korea worked on FM simplex, not on
    the regular 29.6 FM frequency but on the Asia chit-chat channels
    around 29.3 MHz.

    "Asia hams are frequently active 2200-0200 UTC between 29.20 and
    29.40 FM mode with 29.3 being the FM DX Asia calling channel.

    "Here is a just a sample of this past week and a half mostly 10 FM
    DX with one 12 meter CW to China listed.

    "Sunday March 21-2022 between 0000-0200 UTC

    "29.300 FM HL2IKT KOREA 59 SIGS BOTH WAYS
    29.280 FM HL2IKT KOREA 59

    "I CAUGHT HL2IKT ON BOTH 29.28 AND .29.30 FM CALLING CQ EACH TIME
    with 59 sigs.

    "29.300 FM JR1NVJ JAPAN 55 BOTH WAYS
    29.300 FM JP1DMR JAPAN 55 BOTH WAYS
    24.893 CW BA5AD CHINA 599 BOTH WAYS VERY LOUD.

    "12 METERS HAS BEEN PHENOMENAL WORLDWIDE with great SSB/CW DX and
    there is even some stateside 12 meter FM users which I will post
    info on later.

    "Back to 10 FM, the South Koreans hang out on 29.28MHz FM but they
    also listen for DX on 29.300 FM then they move down to 29.280 for
    contacts

    "MARCH 20 2022 between 00:00 UTC and 01:30 UTC
    FREQ MODE CALL WORKED
    29.300 FM JM7SKE JAPAN 59 BOTH WAYS
    29.300 FM JE4NAN JAPAN 59 BOTH WAYS
    29.300 FM JH1SCD JAPAN 59 BOTH WAYS

    "On March 19th I was informed by a JA ham on 29.6 FM that Asia uses
    29.2 to 29.4 simplex, so I started listening/calling on 29.3 MHz FM
    around March 20th and I was rewarded with Asia DX.

    "MARCH 15 2022 1900 UTC
    29.600 FM PT2ZXR BRAZIL 59+

    "MARCH 13 2022 1800 UTC
    29.600 FM XE2LVM MEXICO 59+

    "MARCH 11 to 12 2022 between 1900 to 2200 UTC
    29.600 FM WH6LU HAWAII 59
    29.600 FM PY2AD BRAZIL 59+
    29.600 FM NP3V PUERTO RICO
    29.600 FM 9Z4FE TRINIDAD
    29.600 FM KH7CN HAWAII"

    WA2AMW (I think the mode was FT8) in Princeton, New Jersey wrote on
    March 21:

    "I just worked VP8NO, Falkland Islands, on 6 meters. I happened to
    see his call on my other monitor and switched from 10 meters. The
    thing that surprised me was the signal strengths: I sent him a +17
    dB report and he sent me a +6 dB report. ON SIX METERS! That's an
    over 5600 mile surface path. Now, a couple of minutes later, he's
    not there anymore. Either he went QRT or the band did."

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
    please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
    an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for March 17 through 23, 2022 were 53, 27, 29, 39,
    30, 29, and 27, with a mean of 33.4.6. 10.7 cm flux was 102.8, 97.8,
    94, 95, 98, 106, and 106, with a mean of 99.9. Estimated planetary A
    indices were 6, 4, 5, 9, 4, 9, and 7, with a mean of 6.3. Middle
    latitude A index was 6, 3, 6, 11, 4, 7, and 6, with a mean of 6.1.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Apr 8 12:20:45 2022

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP014
    ARLP014 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP14
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 14 ARLP014
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA April 8, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP014
    ARLP014 Propagation de K7RA

    Lots of solar activity livened up HF conditions over the past
    reporting week, March 31 to April 6. Average daily sunspot number
    rose from 90.1 to 94.6, and daily solar flux from 132.7 to 135.3.

    It looks like solar flux may peak this month at 140 on April 24-28.

    Since March 18 we were unable to get daily solar flux from the
    observatory in Penticton, British Columbia, so for a couple of weeks
    we relied on secondary sources which were all in whole numbers,
    instead of resolving to 0.1. Multiple inquiries to the observatory
    led nowhere, but now the data is back online at,
    https://bit.ly/3LDlgqC .

    I had to fudge the flux value for March 31, because the value of
    239.5 was obviously an error, probably due to a CME overwhelming the
    10.7 cm receiver at the observatory, so I averaged the morning and
    afternoon readings to 149.3. The official daily flux value is always
    from the 2000 UTC local noon reading.

    Geomagnetic conditions were quite active on March 31 through April
    2. Average daily planetary A index for the week increased from 10 to
    14.4, and middle latitude A index from 8.1 to 10.9.

    Spaceweather.com reported 146 solar flares over the month of March
    and predicts even more for April. They also report that Solar Cycle
    25 is progressing faster and stronger than earlier predictions.

    A new sunspot group appeared on March 31, two more on April 1,
    another on April 2 and one more on April 3, and one more on April 5.

    Predicted solar flux is 108 on April 8-9, 105 on April 10-11, 100 on
    April 12-14, then 110, 115 and 120 on April 15-17, 125 on April
    18-19, 130 on April 20-23, 140 on April 24-28, 135 on April 29-30,
    130 on May 1, 120 on May 2-3, 125 on May 4-5, 120 on May 6, 115 on
    May 7-8, 110 on May 8-9, 115 on May 11, and 120 on May 12-14.

    Predicted planetary A index is 12, 15, 10 and 8 on April 8-11, 5 on
    April 12-19, 10 on April 20-21, then 5, 15, 10 and 8 on April 22-25,
    5 on April 26-28, then 18, 12, 10 and 8 on April 29 through May 2, 5
    on May 3-7, then 12 and 10 on May 8-9, and 5 on May 10-16.

    Solar wind in the news:

    https://bit.ly/3rdXycD

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH reports:

    "Total solar activity has been declining. Recent CMEs generated by
    solar flares have usually not been headed to Earth. In particular,
    on April 6, the solar wind was expected to intensify from a CME
    generated by a filament eruption on April 3rd, but only a small
    portion of the solar plasma cloud reached Earth.

    "The Earth's magnetic field was unsettled to active until April 2
    and partly on April 4 and 7. The increased geomagnetic activity on
    the night of April 3 to 4 worsened diurnal short wave propagation
    conditions on April 4. Thereafter, despite the continuing decline in
    solar activity, shortwave propagation conditions improved.

    "In further development, we first expect a decline in solar
    activity. Its growth in the second half of the month will again
    cause an improvement of shortwave propagation. However, the
    development will be slightly irregular."

    Another great video forecast from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, the
    Space Weather Woman:

    https://youtu.be/SxU6Lv30DuQ

    WB8VLC reports from Oregon:

    "Another great week on 10 meters but only SSB/CW and not much FM
    activity, but the activity was very strong with signals to South
    Africa, Taiwan, Philippines, Norfolk Island, and Australia.

    "Interesting that I have not heard any European stations during any
    morning or afternoon openings to the east, just South Africa."

    A small portion of his log:

    "April 3 it was ZS in the morning and VK at night then China and
    Philippines:

    "2344 UTC N7ET/DU7 28.014 CW 599 Philippines
    2340 UTC BV1EL 28.010 CW 599 Taiwan
    2311 UTC VK3NX 28.015 CW 599 Australia
    1900 UTC ZS3Y 28.373 SSB 55 South Africa"

    K5JRN reports on 6 meters from Austin, Texas:

    "Interesting conditions observed here on April 4 and 6. On 6 meters
    on 4/4/22, I worked HK3X (FJ24) in Columbia and HC1MD/2 (EI97) in
    Ecuador while running 30 watts to an indoor dipole wrapped around a
    couple of bamboo tomato stakes glued end to end. [I will assume FT8
    was the mode. - K7RA]

    "That same combo helped me snag HC2DR (FI07) in Ecuador today (4/6).
    My signals were not strong, ranging from -13 to -24 in Colombia and
    Ecuador. I've also been heard in Argentina and have copied several
    Argentinian hams, including LU9AEA (GF05), but have not yet worked
    an LU on 6.

    "Today, I've also been heard in Uruguay by CX7CO (GF15) but have not
    heard any CX stations yet. Indeed, I'm not receiving anyone else on
    6 meters except a few locals and those South American stations. The
    north-south paths seem like narrow pipelines."

    Speaking of "narrow pipelines," I often see this on 10 and 12 meters
    using FT8. Monitoring pskreporter.info, on April 7 at 1630 UTC on 12
    meters my signal was only reported by stations on the East Coast
    over a narrow band, all from 2296-2359 miles from me, at first only
    by many stations in Virginia and North Carolina, but not South
    Carolina.

    Later at 1645 UTC coverage expanded to Florida and Georgia, but
    still within that narrow mileage limit. Later by 1720 UTC reports
    had spread to New York, Georgia and Florida, and the mileage range
    expanded slightly to 2119-2489 miles. But there was one major
    exception, HK3A in Bogota, Colombia at 4091 miles.

    The night before (local time) at 0220 UTC on 17 meters I was copied
    only into a specific area about 2300 miles away in Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Maryland, then suddenly at 0232 UTC the coverage
    expanded to California, Oregon, Texas, Alabama, and Florida. All of
    this with low power and a crude end-fed indoor antenna, fed with an
    UnUn and autotuner.

    Thanks to KA7F for the following:

    https://bit.ly/3rbkUj8

    Information on Solar Cycle 25 increasing:

    https://bit.ly/3x9cv3p

    And more from the Southgate Amateur Radio Club:

    https://bit.ly/38BbEOW

    More solar phenomena:

    https://bit.ly/3ra65NV

    And more:

    https://earthsky.org/sun/sun-activity-week-of-march-28-to-april-3/

    N0JK reports:

    "On Saturday April 2, 2022 N0LL (EM09) copied LU5VV, CE2SV, LU1WFU
    and PV8DX on 50.313 MHz FT8 TEP. I copied CE2SV on TEP and K0SIX
    (EN35) calling PY5CC on 50.313 MHz Es at 2109 UTC."

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
    please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
    an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for March 31 through April 6, 2022 were 84, 109,
    118, 129, 86, 75, and 61, with a mean of 94.6. 10.7 cm flux was
    149,3, 146.6, 143.3, 140.2, 128, 122.4, and 117, with a mean of
    135.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 27, 17, 22, 10, 11, 6, and
    8, with a mean of 14.4. Middle latitude A index was 18, 12, 19, 7,
    8, 6, and 6, with a mean of 10.9.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Apr 15 17:38:21 2022

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP015
    ARLP015 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP15
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 15 ARLP015
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA April 15, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP015
    ARLP015 Propagation de K7RA

    At 2335 UTC on April 14, the Australian Space Forecast Centre issued
    this Geomagnetic Disturbance Warning:

    "INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH
    SPEED WIND STREAM FROM 16 to 17 APRIL 2022."

    Sunspot numbers and solar flux declined this reporting week (April
    7 to 13) although solar activity wasn't really down. Instead, we saw
    solar flares and CMEs every day, causing disruptions to HF radio
    communication.

    There was a new sunspot appearance on April 7, and another on each
    day from April 11 to 14. Yet average daily sunspot numbers declined
    from 94.6 to 34.4, and average daily solar flux from 135.3 to 103.1.

    Average daily planetary A index increased from 14.4 to 15.9, and
    average middle latitude A index (measured at a single magnetometer
    in Virginia) went from 10.9 last week to 12.6 this week.

    The latest solar flux prediction from the USAF Space Weather
    Squadron, via NOAA, shows modest activity for the next month with
    flux values of 105 and 110 on April 15 and 16, 115 on April 17 to
    20, 118 on April 21, 110 on April 22 and 23, 115 on April 24, 118 on
    April 25 to 28, 116 on April 29 through May 6, 112 and 98 on May 7
    and 8, 95 on May 9 to 11, 98 and 102 on May 12 and 13, 106 on May 14
    to 18, and 110 on May 19 and 20.

    Predicted planetary A index is 22, 15, 10, 12 and 10 on April 15 to
    19, 5 on April 20 to 22, then 15, 10 and 8 on April 23 to 25, 5 on
    April 26 to 28, then 18, 12 and 8 on April 29 through May 1, 5 on
    May 2 to 5, then 8, 15 and 12 on May 6 to 8, then 5 on May 9 to 11,
    then 12 and 8 on May 12 and 13, 5 on May 14 to 16, then 10 on May 17
    and 18, then 5, 15, 10 and 8 on May 19 to 22.

    I've noticed odd 10 meter propagation lately, possibly affected by
    the heightened geomagnetic activity. On April 14 in the local
    Seattle morning around 1530 UTC using FT8 and pskreporter.info it
    seemed that my low power signal was only being heard along a narrow
    band across the Gulf Coast, from Texas to South Caroline. Later I
    was only being heard in Florida.

    Then all reports disappeared, then suddenly reports extended to two
    stations in Columbia and Chile, and by 2000 UTC I was heard by W5SRO
    in Oklahoma, KX4WB in Tennessee, N4HER in North Carolina, and KB2AHZ
    in Virginia, plus everything in between, and then as far south as
    KN5X in Texas across to KD7NFR in Georgia, plus most of Central
    Florida.

    By 2300 to 0100 UTC, other than local stations and W7MTL, 250 miles
    away in Oregon, I was only being heard in Mexico, by five stations
    1700 to 2300 miles away.

    On the same afternoon, Jon Jones, N0JK reported on six meters, "Due
    to a CME impact, the geomagnetic field went to storm levels the
    afternoon of April 14.

    6 Meters opened to Ecuador around 1930 UTC. Here in eastern Kansas,
    HC2DR and HC2FG were loud on 50.313 MHz FT8. They were in about an
    hour with big pileup. I received a psk flag from HC2FG at 2003 UTC.
    AA0MZ EM29 worked HC2DR and HC2FG."

    Earlier Jon reported:

    "I copied on 50.313 MHz FT8 April 9:

    CE0YHF/CE3
    CE3SOC
    CE2SV

    CE3SOC peaked to '-9 dB.'

    No contacts."

    On April 14, Dick, K7BTW reported to the Western Washington DX Club
    list:

    "A bit of an opening to SA on 6 FT8 this afternoon. I worked CE2SV
    (VE7SV) Dale Green down there in Chile.

    I have copied several stations from down in Chile the past few days
    about 2000 to 2130z."

    Jay, K7TTZ forwarded this piece from Newsweek on solar cycle
    progress:

    https://bit.ly/3rt7u1X

    OK1HH says:

    "Solar activity has been declining over the last week. We now
    observe only two active areas in the northeast quadrant of the solar
    disk. However, we experienced two coronal mass ejections (CME). The
    one first originated from the filament eruption on April 11, while
    the arrival of coronal mass to the surroundings of the Earth with a
    significant increase in geomagnetic activity is expected during
    April 14. The second CME on April 13 took place on the far side of
    the Sun and is heading for the planet Mercury.

    The STEREO A probe observes three other active areas behind the
    eastern edge of the solar disk. Solar activity is starting to rise.
    It can be assumed that it will be increased throughout the second
    half of April. A more significant decline is not expected at the
    beginning of May either."

    Solar cycle progress and aurora:

    https://bit.ly/37TGSAw

    Flares!

    https://www.space.com/solar-storm-northern-lights-april-2022

    Interesting info on helioseismology

    http://jsoc.stanford.edu/data/timed/

    Another wonderful video from WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/QZHnWE_19K0

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for April 7 through 13, 2022 were 52, 55, 37, 13,
    24, 23, and 37, with a mean of 34.4. 10.7 cm flux was 111.1, 108.9,
    107.1, 101.1, 98.7, 96.2, and 98.7, with a mean of 103.1. Estimated
    planetary A indices were 15, 9, 19, 34, 13, 12, and 9, with a mean
    of 15.9. Middle latitude A index was 12, 9, 17, 18, 13, 10, and 9 ,
    with a mean of 12.6.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Sat Apr 23 11:50:21 2022

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP016
    ARLP016 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP16
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 16 ARLP016
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA April 22, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP016
    ARLP016 Propagation de K7RA

    Solar flares emerged daily over the last reporting week (April
    14-20). On April 20 Spaceweather.com reported "Solar Activity is
    Intensifying," and that over the past 24 hours there were 19 solar
    flares, including six M-class events, and a powerful X2.2 class
    flare.

    Daily sunspot numbers averaged 64.4, 30 points higher than last
    week, and average daily solar flux also rose 30 points from 103.1 to
    133.9.

    Yesterday, April 21, the huge array of active Earth facing sunspots
    pushed the daily sunspot number clear up to 119, high above the
    average for the week of 64.4.

    Even with all the flares and CMEs, geomagnetic indicators were
    lower, with the average planetary A index going from 16.9 to 14.6,
    and middle latitude numbers from 12.6 to 10.9.

    Predicted solar flux looked moderate, but the outlook improved
    between April 20 and the following day, with flux values at 160 on
    April 22-29, 125 on April 30, 130 on May 1-4, 125 on May 5, 130 on
    May 6-7, 128 on May 8, 130 on May 9-10, 135 on May 11-12, 140 on May
    13-14, 135 on May 15, 130 on May 16-18, 135 on May 19, 130 on May
    20-21, 135 on May 22, 132 on May 23-25, 125 on May 26-27, and 130 on
    May 28-31.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 and 12 on April 22-23, 12 on April
    23, 8 on April 24-25, 5 on April 26-28, then 18, 12 and 8 on April
    29 through May 1, 5 on May 2-5, then 8, 15, 12 and 8 on May 6-9, 5
    on May 10-12, then 8, 10 and 12 on May 13-15, 10 on May 16-17, 8 on
    May 18-19, then 12 and 8 on May 20-21, 5 on May 22-25, then 18, 12
    and 8 on May 26-28.

    This report from OK1HH:

    "A week ago, we knew solar activity would rise, but the reality
    exceeded expectations. As predicted, a CME hit Earth's magnetic
    field on April 14th. Its impact sparked a moderately strong G2-class geomagnetic storm, which peaked around 1800 UTC. Apparently due to
    the further increasing solar radiation, the disturbance was mainly
    accompanied by an improvement in the ionospheric propagation of
    decameter waves (10 meters!), which also applied to the following
    development.

    "Activity prevailed in growing hotspots in the northeast quadrant of
    the solar disk. In the following days, the activity of the
    southwestern areas increased, including the X2.2-class flare on
    April 20th at 0357 UTC, when it came from a far side sunspot. And
    finally, on April 21st at 0157 UTC a strong M9.6-class solar flare
    was detected. The source was the sunspot complex AR2993-94, which is
    almost directly facing Earth, so I expect the intensified solar wind
    in the coming days to affect the Earth's magnetosphere and
    ionosphere."

    Solar flares in the news:

    https://www.space.com/sun-unleashes-major-easter-solar-flare

    Here is an impressive image:

    https://skyandtelescope.org/online-gallery/sun-erupting/

    Here are more and more solar flares:

    https://www.space.com/solar-x-class-flare-april-2022

    https://www.space.com/sdo-image-april-20-moderate-flare

    Funny thing is, even with all this activity, I am not seeing much of
    an effect on geomagnetic indicators:

    https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/daily-geomagnetic-indices.txt

    More solar news can be found here:

    https://bit.ly/3jZtEVF

    https://interestingengineering.com/sun-flare-five-years

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
    please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
    an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for April 14 through 20, 2022 were 37, 35, 78, 74,
    79, 68, and 80, with a mean of 64.4. 10.7 cm flux was 103.4, 110.3,
    122.4, 134.9, 140.5, 160.1, and 165.5, with a mean of 133.9.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 38, 21, 8, 11, 8, 7, and 9, with
    a mean of 14.6. Middle latitude A index was 22, 14, 7, 9, 7, 8, and
    9, with a mean of 10.9.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Apr 29 11:54:07 2022

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP017
    ARLP017 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP17
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 17 ARLP017
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA April 29, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP017
    ARLP017 Propagation de K7RA

    At 0206 UTC on April 28 the Australian Space Forecast Centre issued
    a Geomagnetic Disturbance Warning: "The Earth is currently under the
    influence of moderately elevated solar wind speed associated with a
    southern coronal hole. On late UT day April 29, solar wind
    conditions are expected to enhance further due to possible arrival
    of the 27 April CMEs. G0-G1 conditions are likely for next three
    days with a chance of G2 on April 29 due to both coronal hole
    effects and impending impact of the CMEs. Aurora may be visible from
    Tasmania, southern coastline Victoria and southwest Western
    Australia."

    On Wednesday and Thursday, I am seeing sunspot groups threaded
    across the Sun from southeast to northwest. Daily sunspot number
    peaked at 126 on Tuesday, and average daily sunspot number for the
    week was 109.3, up from 64.4 last week. Daily solar flux peaked at
    164.4 on Thursday, April 21 and the average for the week was 156, up
    from 133.9 in the previous week.

    Predicted solar flux is 125, 115 and 110 on April 29 through May 1,
    105 on May 2-4, 102 on May 5-6, then 130 and 128 on May 7-8, 130 on
    May 9-10, 135 on May 11-12, 140 on May 13-15, 160 on May 16-21, 135
    on May 22, 132 on May 23-25, 125 on May 26-27, 130 on May 28-31, 125
    on June 1, and 130 on June 2-3.

    Predicted planetary A index is 18, 10 and 8 on April 29 through May
    1, 5 on May 2-5, then 8, 15, 12 and 8 on May 6-9, 5 on May 10-12,
    then 8, 10, 8 and 8 on May 13-16, 5 on May 17-19, then 10 and 8 on
    May 20-21, 5 on May 22-25, then 18, 12 and 8 on May 26-28, then 5 on
    May 29 through June 1, and 8, 15, 12 and 8 on June 2-5.

    OK1HH says:

    "Last week we witnessed higher solar activity. Large active areas
    passed through the central meridian and produced medium-sized
    eruptions (class M) and occasionally large eruptions (class X).
    While at the end of the period these areas in the northwest were
    sinking, other and slightly smaller areas in the southeast of the
    disk emerged.

    "There have been two increases in geomagnetic activity - one was
    expected on the night of April 20-21, second one, rather unexpected,
    by afternoon of April 27. The gradual increase in solar radiation
    has significantly improved the propagation conditions of decameter
    waves. Its improvement was supported by the positive storm phase
    during the afternoon of April 27, when the critical frequencies of
    the F2 ionospheric layer in mid-latitudes exceeded 10 MHz and MUF on transatlantic routes rose above 30 MHz. The negative storm phase
    followed on April 28."

    Decameter waves is another term for HF radio, at 3-30 MHz.

    Watching sunspots on the sidewalk in New York City:

    https://evgrieve.com/2022/04/seeing-sun-spots-today.html

    A story on how to watch sunspots (safely, of course) without a
    telescope:

    https://bit.ly/39qJnuQ

    Bill, KD9KCK wrote:

    "On Wednesday, April 27 around 2100 UTC 10m was having some
    propagation I have never dreamed of. I was tuning around looking for
    a spot to call CQ for Parks On The Air and came across EA2K and
    another station in Spain talking to ZL1ACE in New Zealand. And I was
    able to hear both sides here near Chicago with just a short 36 inch
    10m hamstick on the roof of my car with my IC-718. I didn't try to
    contact the EA stations once they called QRZ though because they
    were looking for just Pacific Stations at the time."

    Here is a story of a "Tornado of Fire" on the surface of the Sun:

    https://cnet.co/3Krc9Iy

    K4ZOT wrote on Tuesday, April 26:

    "Just wanted to drop you a quick line about today's unusual
    propagation on 17M to Eastern Europe - Kosovo and Croatia, Central
    Asia - Kyrgyzstan, Japan, far NT in Canada, SA - Brazil, North
    Atlantic - Faroe Island, etc. - well really all over the world.
    This was quite unusual in my book and unexpected. Worked two ATNO -
    Republic of Kosovo and Faroe Island. I am running a TS-590SG into a
    mini-beam at only 20 feet with an amp at 300 watts. All contacts
    were on FT8. It was quite an experience!"

    NN4X reported from Florida on April 26:

    "I experienced some amazing conditions on 10m
    over-the-north-pole-or-darn close propagation today, all using FT8.

    "9N7AA 1220 UTC (20 degree heading; the others were within a few
    degrees of 0)

    "YC1KQV 1222 UTC
    9M2TO 1613 UTC
    9W2TED 1633 UTC
    9V1ZV 1714 UTC
    E20EHQ 1818 UTC

    "There was at least one other 9W2 that I missed, and other YBs which
    I did not call.

    "Also, in there was BD9BI/0 (Zone 23). I'd worked him previously,
    so did not pursue him.

    "I am not sure I've ever seen such an extended period of this kind
    of propagation on 10m."

    Here is some information on flares and radio blackouts:

    https://bit.ly/3EWuPij

    I (K7RA) noticed plenty of odd propagation this week, possibly due
    to flare activity. I use FT8 mainly as a tool for observing
    propagation on various bands, and on Tuesday April 26 at 1652 UTC
    K7HAM in Arizona answered my CQ on 17 meters. But we did not
    complete the contact. Pskreporter.info showed broad coverage of my
    signal, from Southern California to Florida at the south, and South
    Dakota to Maine at the north. But at 1700 UTC coverage began to
    fade.

    By 1720 UTC my coverage on the map was all gone, with a couple of
    odd exceptions.

    WZ7I in Pennsylvania and AF7KR in Arizona were the only stations
    reporting my signal. Then suddenly NH6V on Hawaii's Big Island
    reported. That was it, but then I observed F1EYG and DL0PF on my
    screen.

    After 1721 UTC my coverage began coming back. I stopped calling
    K7HAM at 1730 UTC, 38 minutes after he responded to my CQ, and by
    1735 UTC my signal was being received again all over North America.

    On Wednesday, April 27 at 1730 UTC checking for any FT8 signals on
    10 meters from my grid square (CN87), they were only being received
    in Florida! Nowhere else, anywhere, and the cluster of Florida
    stations reporting was quite thick, stretching all over the state.
    But nowhere else was reporting signals from my area.

    More on radio blackouts:

    https://bit.ly/38z8c7b

    Don't know what they mean by "sunspot activity score of 80," the
    average of daily sunspot numbers for the past four weeks is 68.2:

    https://bit.ly/3km9AwX

    Here is the latest from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/kYv8CsSot-U

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
    please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
    an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for April 21 through 27, 2022 were 119, 101, 118,
    112, 94, 126, and 95, with a mean of 109.3. 10.7 cm flux was 164.4,
    162.5, 159.8, 158.5, 156.6, 148.9, and 141.5, with a mean of 156.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 7, 13, 5, 5, 3, and 21, with
    a mean of 9.1. Middle latitude A index was 9, 7, 12, 5, 4, 3, and
    16, with a mean of 8.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri May 6 08:35:36 2022

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP018
    ARLP018 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP18
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 18 ARLP018
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA May 6, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP018
    ARLP018 Propagation de K7RA

    https://www.spaceweather.com reported on May 4 at 0859 UTC that an M5 solar flare erupted from sunspot group AR3004, causing a shortwave radio
    blackout over the Middle East and Africa.

    Please see https://bit.ly/3vKzelk

    A recent flare update:

    https://bit.ly/3OXvuo8

    Solar activity was lower this week, even though we could see
    sunspots every day.

    Average daily sunspot numbers dropped from 109.3 to 68.6, while
    average daily solar flux went from 156 to 120.

    Average daily geomagnetic indices were only slightly higher, with
    average planetary A index changing from 9.1 to 10.7, and middle
    latitude A index from 8 to 9.3.

    Predicted solar flux looks low for the next month, even dipping
    below 100 in early June. In fact, from Wednesday to Thursday the
    predicted solar flux for the first week of the forecast dropped
    dramatically.

    For a comparison, see this week's ARRL Letter at, http://www.arrl.org/arrlletter?issue=2022-05-05 .

    Predicted values are 118 on May 6-8, then 115, 110 and 112 on May
    9-11, then 115, 115 and 120 on May 12-14, 125 on May 15-18, 127 on
    May 19-20, then 130, 128, 125, and 122 on May 21-24, 118 on May
    25-26, then 114 and 110 on May 27-28, 105 on May 29-31, then 102 and
    100 on June 1-2, 97 on June 3-5, then 99, 102 and 108 on June 6-8,
    then 115 on June 9, 120 on June 10, and 125 on June 11-14.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on May 6, 8 on May 7-8, 5 on May
    9-12, then 8, 10 and 8 on May 13-15, 5 on May 16-19, then 12 and 8
    on May 20-21, 5 on May 22-23, 18 on May 24, 15 on May 25-27, then 8,
    15 and 8 on May 28-30, then 5 on May 31 through June 8, then 8, 1,
    and 8 on June 9-11.

    These predictions are from forecasters Housseal and Dethlefsen of
    the USAF 557th Weather Wing.

    Recent flare activity in the news:

    https://bit.ly/39vn8Uq

    https://bit.ly/38YBfRO

    https://bit.ly/3P0IfOX

    https://bit.ly/3ydNeFM

    https://bit.ly/3FhULFc

    Thanks to KA3JAW for this story:

    https://bit.ly/3kLmchd

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere from OK1HH:

    "We have seen more of large solar flares this year, but it was
    usually by night in Europe. On April 30, the first major flare
    finally occurred during the day, thanks to which we were able to
    observe the ShortWave Fadeout (SWF) in the western part of the Old
    World. Solar X-rays caused abnormally high ionization in the
    ionospheric D region, where attenuation increased significantly. Our
    shortwave receivers fell silent at 1337 UTC.

    "The solar flare peaked at 1347 UTC, ending at 1352 UTC. Only then
    could the attenuation in the ionospheric D region begin to decline
    and signals other than those coming via ground wave gradually
    appeared. Solar activity began to rise again mainly due to active
    area No. 3004, which emerged on May 2, and grew rapidly.

    "Its magnetic structure became more complex with increased energy,
    with significant eruptions up to several times a day. In addition,
    they were often accompanied by type IV radio noise bursts, which
    indicated that the solar plasma cloud had left the Sun. As Group
    3004 is now facing approximately toward us, we can expect at least
    one of the clouds to hit Earth, causing a disturbance. Perhaps we
    will see further improvement in the shortwave propagation
    conditions, during the possible positive phase of its development."

    KA3JAW sent this report about signals heard on the 8 meter band:

    "On Saturday, April 30, 2022, between 1607-1632 UTC I received
    WM2XEJ in Grid Square EM82 calling CQ using digital mode FT8 on the experimental 8-meter (40 MHz) band via short-haul sporadic-E.
    Distance was 670 miles (1078 km), with an azimuth of 220 degrees.

    "The 8-meter experimental band is within the worldwide Industrial-Scientific-Medical (ISM) segment between 40.660 to 40.700
    MHz with a 40 kHz bandwidth, center frequency on 40.680.

    "Licensed users are Fixed, Mobile and Earth exploration-satellite
    service.

    "WM2XEJ is an FCC Part 5 Experimental Radio Service station operated
    by Tom Mills, WB4JWM in Eatonton, Georgia. Tom is authorized to
    operate at 400 watts of Effective Radiated Power (ERP) using CW,
    SSB, digital modes FT4, FT8, WSPR, and Q65.

    "Tom uses an Icom IC-9100 rig into a vertical loop antenna giving
    about 300 watts of ERP."

    Amateur radio has 8 meter allocations in the UK, Slovenia, Denmark,
    and South Africa.

    Here is a blog devoted to 8 meters:

    https://ei7gl.blogspot.com/p/40-mhz.html .

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
    please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net .

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
    an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for April 28 through May 4, 2022 were 118, 90, 50,
    36, 69, 53, and 64, with a mean of 68.6. 10.7 cm flux was 132.2,
    123.5, 119.7, 109, 111.9, 113.8, and 130.1, with a mean of 120.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 14, 15, 18, 9, 6, 7, and 6, with
    a mean of 10.7. Middle latitude A index was 11, 10, 16, 9, 6, 7, and
    6, with a mean of 9.3.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri May 13 20:05:56 2022

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP019
    ARLP019 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP19
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 19 ARLP019
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA May 13, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP019
    ARLP019 Propagation de K7RA

    We saw some evidence of sporadic-e propagation this week on 6 and 10
    meters, always surprising and exciting.

    Solar activity was about the same as last week, at least going by
    the numbers.

    Average daily sunspot numbers rose slightly from 68.6 to 74.4, while
    average daily solar flux only budged from 120 to 120.3.

    Geomagnetic indicators were quieter, with average daily planetary A
    index shifting from 10.7 to 5, and average middle latitude numbers
    from 9.3 to 4.6. We listed the middle latitude A index on May 6 as
    2, but that number is my own estimate. At the end of that day the
    last K index reading was not reported, and since the A index for the
    day is calculated from all the K index readings, there was no
    official middle latitude A index reported, so I came up with my own
    estimate based on available data.

    Thursday's outlook for solar flux is more optimistic than last
    week's prediction, with no values below 100. Expected flux values
    are 135 on May 13-16, then 132, 128, 126, and 120 on May 17-20, then
    118, 120, 124 and 121 on May 21-24, 118 on May 25-27, 116 on May
    28-31, 118 on June 1-5, then 116 and 118 on June 6-7, 120 on June
    8-9, 122 on June 10-14, 118 on June 15-17, then 120, 124 and 121 on
    June 18-20.

    Planetary A index is predicted at 8 on May 13, 12 on May 14-15, then
    14 and 8 on May 16-17, 5 on May 18-19, then 12 and 8 on May 20-21, 5
    on May 22-23, 18 on May 24, 15 on May 25-27, 8 on May 28, and 5 on
    May 29 through June 15, a nice long quiet spell of geomagnetic
    stability for more than 2 weeks.

    Thursday's forecast was prepared by Trost and Housseal of the U.S.
    Air Force.

    OK1HH wrote:

    "Solar flares continue to occur, and some of them are throwing
    several overlapping CMEs into space. The amount of CMEs leaving the
    sun is large enough to make it difficult to unravel their different
    shapes and trajectories, which reduces the reliability of
    predictions. Nevertheless, the geomagnetic activity is mostly low,
    which can be explained by the fact that the magnetic fields above
    the solar surface are mostly closed.

    An intense solar flare of class X1.5 was observed on May 10 at 1355
    UT in the active region 3006 with a complex magnetic structure.
    Radiation from the flare ionized the Earth's atmosphere and caused a
    shortwave radio outage around the Atlantic Ocean, more specifically
    from Central Europe to the east coast of the United States (see
    Dellinger effect). Radio transmissions at frequencies below 30 MHz
    were attenuated for more than an hour after the eruption.

    Another M-flare on the afternoon of May 11 was a proton flare.

    Another CME on May 11 came from the sunspots on the far side - one
    just behind the eastern limb of the Sun and the other just behind
    the western limb. We do not expect the solar wind around the Earth
    to intensify again."

    Dellinger effect:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudden_ionospheric_disturbance

    Here is a blackout map for the above mentioned May 10 event:

    https://bit.ly/3w7jQjg

    More on this event:

    https://bit.ly/3N98Nf0

    https://bit.ly/3NgULrX

    Mystery of the bright spots:

    https://bit.ly/3wbiBQa

    WA6LIE wrote in a message titled "TEP to Fiji":

    "Yesterday evening March 10 just after 0600 UTC I was getting ready
    to go to bed and saw 3D2AG calling CQ on 6 meter FT8.

    I gave him a call and we made a QSO.

    He was decoded here in Salinas CA. CM96 for an hour and a half with
    no takers.

    Looks like the Magic band is starting to play!

    Will go back to my saying: gotta be in the right place at the right
    time and get lucky! Heads up!"

    K5JRN wrote:

    "Today (05/07/2022) at 1601 UTC, I caught a brief 2-meter E-skip
    opening and worked W4AS in EL95, using FT8, 25 Watts, and an indoor
    mobile whip antenna. It was an 1100-mile hop from EM10, in Austin
    TX, to the Miami FL area. He was +04 here and I was -24 there, no
    doubt because of my low power and cross-polarization. It was a new
    grid for me on 2, and I'm happy to have it."

    Massive solar flare, almost:

    https://bit.ly/3Maqvij

    Solar cycle progress update from NOAA:

    https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression

    Real time geomagnetic updates:

    https://www.solarham.net/kp.htm

    Latest from Space Weather Woman Dr. Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/PUArR1QXTAg

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for May 5 through 11, 2022 were 85, 64, 66, 89, 71,
    62, and 84, with a mean of 74.4. 10.7 cm flux was 119.9, 119.2,
    118.1, 119.2, 117, 115.8, and 132.9, with a mean of 120.3. Estimated
    planetary A indices were 4, 5, 3, 6, 8, 3, and 6, with a mean of 5.
    Middle latitude A index was 4, 2, 4, 7, 8, 2, and 5, with a mean of
    4.6.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri May 20 12:28:39 2022

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP020
    ARLP020 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP20
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 20 ARLP020
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA May 20, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP020
    ARLP020 Propagation de K7RA

    Solar activity was up, up, up this week, with average daily sunspot
    numbers increasing from 74.4 to 134.1, and average daily solar flux
    from 120.3 to 157.3.

    To get some perspective, I averaged the weekly averages for sunspot
    number and solar flux from this bulletin and the previous three,
    then compared them to the bulletins from one year earlier.

    A year ago, the averages for 2021 Propagation Forecast Bulletins
    ARLP017 through ARLP020 were 28.9 for sunspot numbers and 75.9 for
    solar flux. A year later, the averages are 96.6 for sunspot numbers
    and 138.4 for solar flux.

    This documents a substantial increase in solar activity and is
    another illustration of how this cycle is progressing faster than
    the official cycle prediction by the experts.

    Geomagnetic indicators were higher this week. Average daily
    planetary A index went from 5 to 9, while middle latitude A index
    increased from 4.6 to 9.6, compared to the previous reporting
    period, which always runs from Thursday through the following
    Wednesday.

    Spaceweather.com reported on Wednesday that big sunspot AR3014
    doubled in size, and presented this movie from NASA, showing 24
    hours of activity:

    https://bit.ly/3G1m2ff

    On Thursday, Spaceweather.com presented this movie of a massive jet
    of plasma projecting from our Sun's southwestern limb:

    https://bit.ly/3sOEdQe

    Predicted solar flux in Thursday's prediction begins about 8 points
    lower than the Wednesday forecast, at 172 on May 20, 170 on May
    21-24, then a decline from 168, 166, 150, 136, and 138 on May 25-29,
    then the predicted values revert back to the Wednesday forecast at
    140 on May 30-31, 143 on June 1-3, 140 and 136 on June 4-5, 138 on
    June 6-7, then 140 and 150 on June 8-9, 154 on June 10-12, 152 on
    June 13-14, then 150 and 148 on June 15-16, 140 on June 17-18, 145
    on June 19, 142 on June 20-21, then 138 on June 22 and 136 on June
    23-24.

    Predicted planetary A index is 12 on May 20, 8 on May 21-22, 5 on
    May 23-26, 15 and 8 on May 27-28, 5 on May 29 through June 9, 8 on
    June 10, 14 on June 11-12, 8 and 5 on June 13-14, 8 on June 15-16, 5
    on June 17-19, 18 on June 20, then 15 on June 21-23, 8 on June 24,
    and 5 for at least the following ten days.

    The above predictions are from Housseal and Levine of the 557th USAF
    Weather wing.

    The Sun busts out a trio of flares:

    https://bit.ly/3yOhNlF

    OK1HH wrote:

    "In the last seven days, solar activity has risen monotonously."

    (I thought F.K. Janda's use of the word "monotonously" must be a mistranslation, but now I am not so sure. I thought perhaps he meant "monstrously." -K7RA)

    "Moderate flares have been observed almost daily. Highest level
    X-rays belonged to an X1.5 class eruption, start 1350 UTC, peak 1355
    UTC, end time 1359 UTC on May 10th from NOAA AR 3006 in the
    southwest quadrant, classified as magnetic type beta-gamma-delta.

    "During the daytime, moderate flares often caused a Short-Wave
    Fadeout. AR 3007 and AR 3014 also evolved into the beta-gamma-delta
    magnetic configuration.

    "No fibrous eruption was observed in any of the fibers on the solar
    disc. Observed coronal holes were relatively small, for this reason
    too, the geomagnetic activity was mostly low. The expected arrival
    of a CME, related to the flares of classes X1.5 and C4.7 on 10 May
    did not arrive on Earth.

    "The decrease in geomagnetic activity together with the increase in
    the intensity of solar X-rays contributed to the fact that the
    critical frequencies of the ionospheric layer F2 were above average,
    increased further since 15 May."

    "Here is the Solar activity forecast for the period May 20-26, 2022:

    "Activity level: mostly moderate
    X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range C1.4-C2.6
    Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 145-195
    Events: class C (1-10/day), class M (1-8/period), class X
    (0-3/period), proton (0-1/period)
    Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 140-230

    "Jana Hrabalova, RWC Prague Astronomical Institute."

    "Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period May 20-26, 2022:

    "Quiet: May 21-23
    Unsettled: May 19-20, 24-26
    Active: May 19, 24
    Minor storm: possible May 24
    Major storm: 0
    Severe storm: 0

    "Geomagnetic activity summary:

    "Today (Thursday, May 19), unsettled to active conditions are
    expected. On Friday, May 20, we expect at most unsettled conditions
    until Saturday, May 21. From this day to Tuesday, May 24, quiet to
    unsettled conditions are expected.

    "About Tuesday, May 24, and Wednesday, May 25, the return of the
    unsettled conditions may be accompanied by a further active event."

    "Tomas Bayer, RWC Prague, Institute of Geophysics, Department of
    Geomagnetism, Budkov observatory."

    KB1AWM wrote on Sunday, May 15:

    "Had a nice short opening to VK6OZ on 12m from Charleston, SC at
    0330 UTC tonight. The mode was FT8. What was most amazing was given
    that late night propagation is usually not conducive to 12m, I
    switched on the amp and received a +17 dB signal report. If you take
    out the 7 dB from the amp, that still leaves +10 dB barefoot. I'm
    enjoying these 10 and 12 meter openings!"

    I replied: "I've been seeing interesting stuff on 12 meters as well.
    Frequently during the day on FT8 I will see my signal from here in
    Seattle on pskreporter ONLY being received in Florida. Weird!"

    On Tuesday, May 17 on 12 meter FT8 starting at 2130 UTC I was only
    heard by CX6VM in Uruguay (6,945 miles), WH6S on Kauai (2,723 miles)
    and 3D2EZ Fiji (5,834 miles).

    This persisted until 2145 UTC when I was heard by WQ6Q in California
    (713 miles).

    On Thursday, May 19 I used FT8 to observe propagation on 10 meters
    using pskreporter.info from 1530-1600 UTC. Local sunrise was 1231
    UTC. During that half hour I was receiving no signals at all, but my
    low power signal was being received by many stations, only in the
    Western United States, all between 700-1200 miles away, with one odd
    exception, a mysterious WLO in EM50vo, 2149 miles from me in
    Alabama.

    WLO turned out to be the callsign of an old Coastal Maritime station
    in Mobile, Alabama. This doesn't mean that they are on the 10 meter
    band with that callsign, but instead have a receiver monitoring the
    band and forwarding received info via WSJT-X.

    Check out this web site:

    https://www.radiomarine.org/historic-coast-stations/wlo-mobile

    Interesting web site - the Solar Influences Data Center:

    https://www.sidc.be/LatestSWData/LatestSWData.php

    The Solar Terrestrial Centre of Excellence:

    https://www.stce.be/news/591/welcome.html

    Here is a site that talks about 17 flares:

    https://bit.ly/3NtPaP8

    Here is an article titled "Solar flares: What are they and how do
    they affect Earth?" with nice graphics:

    https://bit.ly/3G2jgGF

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
    please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
    an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for May 12 through 18, 2022 were 112, 120, 105, 129,
    173, 153, and 147, with a mean of 134.1. 10.7 cm flux was 133,
    149.5, 152.7, 153.6, 161.7, 170.8, and 179.9, with a mean of 157.3.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 7, 7, 12, 10, 12, and 7, with
    a mean of 9. Middle latitude A index was 8, 7, 9, 10, 11, 15, and 7,
    with a mean of 9.6.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri May 27 20:08:47 2022

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP021
    ARLP021 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP21
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 21 ARLP021
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA May 27, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP021
    ARLP021 Propagation de K7RA

    Although our Sun is currently peppered with spots, average daily
    sunspot number slipped from 134.1 the previous week to 124.7 during
    this reporting week, May 19 to 25.

    Average daily solar flux was actually a tiny bit higher, rising
    hardly at all from 157.3 to 158.8. Solar flux has been in a slow,
    steady decline from a peak of 179.9 on May 18.

    A new sunspot group emerged on May 19, two more on May 22, another
    on May 24 and two more on May 25. But a look at the total sunspot
    area, expressed in millionths of a full solar disc, shows it
    declining steadily through the week, from 1500 on May 19 down to 870
    on May 25.

    AR3014 is the biggest sunspot group of the current solar cycle:

    https://bit.ly/39UwBVA

    There were plenty of solar flares this week, although no significant disturbances to note.

    Here is a movie of a flare appearing on May 20:

    https://bit.ly/3GlNtAX

    Another flare on May 25 at 1824 UTC, emerging from an old dead
    sunspot group:

    https://bit.ly/3PIoRXd

    The Thursday prediction from USAF shows average daily solar flux
    dropping from 158.8 over the recent week to 114.5 for the following
    reporting week, May 26 through June 1. Also, the Thursday projection
    for solar flux in the next week was lower than the Wednesday
    prediction.

    Predicted solar flux is 120, 115 and 110 on May 27 to 29, 112 on May
    30 to June 1, 115 on June 2, 120 on June 3 and 4, 115 on June 5 and
    6, then 130, 140 and 150 on June 7 to 9, 155 on June 10 and 11, then
    160 and 165 on June 12 and 13, 175 on June 14 and 15, 165 on June 16
    to 19, then 163, 132, and 158 on June 20 to 22, 150, 142 and 138 on
    June 23 to 25, then 135, 130, 125 and 120 on June 26 to 29, 120 on
    June 30 through July 1, and 115 on July 2 and 3.

    Predicted planetary A index is 15, 18, 15, 12 and 10 on May 27 to
    31, 5 on June 1 to 9, then 8, 14, 12, 14 and 8 on June 10 to 14,
    then 12, 14, 12, 14 and 8 on June 15 to 19, 5 on June 20 to 22, then
    10, 10 and 8 on June 23 to 25, and 5 on June 26 through July 6.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - May 26, 2022 from OK1HH.

    "The current accelerating growth of solar activity is leading to
    predictions that the maximum of the current cycle 25 should be
    comparable to cycle 19. Solar cycle 19 was the nineteenth solar
    cycle since 1755, when extensive recording of sunspot activity
    began. Solar cycle 19 lasted 10.5 years, beginning in April 1954 and
    ending in October 1964. The maximum smoothed sunspot number observed
    during the peak of cycle 19 was 285, in March 1958.

    In the last 14 days, the solar flux has not fallen below 130. A
    total of 13 M-class solar flares were registered.

    The critical frequencies of the ionospheric layer F2 in the same
    interval corresponded to the effective sunspot number 72 to 116,
    while drops below 100 occurred exclusively after days with slightly
    increased geomagnetic activity.

    It's already summer in the ionosphere of the Earth's Northern
    Hemisphere. This corresponds to lower values of the highest usable
    frequencies with the daily occurrence of sporadic layer E. The
    optimal frequencies for DX QSOs therefore fell below 20 MHz. With
    the exception of routes leading above lower latitudes, where they
    tend to be several MHz higher during the day.

    In the coming weeks, the activity of the sporadic layer E in the
    ionosphere of the northern hemisphere will intensify. Although solar
    activity should increase again after June 10, the activity of the
    sporadic layer E will have an even more significant effect on the
    opening of the shortest shortwave bands."

    Recent flare news:

    https://bit.ly/3wQWxtc

    NN4X wrote:

    "There was some amazing propagation on Thursday, 5/26 on 12m to Asia
    over the north pole. I was called, and worked, in succession:

    EX8MLE 1618 UTC 9V1XX 1619 UTC DS4FWI 1620 UTC VU2CPL 1627 UTC

    Sadly, 6m never opened, but the fun didn't stop with 12m in the
    morning.

    15m was spectacularly open around 0200 UTC on Thursday evening.

    The band was literally open ALL OVER THE WORLD."

    Steve included a pskreporter map showing spectacular worldwide FT8
    coverage for his signal.

    From Max White, M0VNG, concerning latitudinal asymmetry in sunspot
    regions:

    https://bit.ly/3MVCi4d

    Posted to an email list devoted to propagation beacons on Thursday
    night:

    "Late evening. Only heard one beacon around 0345 UTC:

    ZL3TEN, 28.2279 MHz, 579 Path: 7,827 miles

    Unbelievable so late at night and signal so strong.

    73, Lou WD5GLO-EM15AH Oklahoma"

    On May 24 I sent this to propagation expert K9LA:

    "Over and over recently I do an FT8 test using pskreporter on 10
    meters and if no response there, I check 12 meters, usually around
    1600 to 1800 UTC.

    Every day shows my signals ONLY being received in Florida, the path
    about 2500 miles. Often there will be an XE station or two, also at
    2500 miles.

    But that's it, nothing else. But later in the day there will be a
    few stations elsewhere.

    The bearing is 103 to 105 deg.

    This is consistent, day after day. I am sure Florida has a large ham population, but cannot for the life of me figure this out.

    On 10 meters a half hour ago AG0N in Nebraska reported, 999 miles
    away and also a 106 degree bearing, but otherwise see a huge
    concentration of Florida stations.

    Any idea why this is happening, other than perhaps a large and
    enthusiastic concentration of FT8 stations monitoring in Florida?"

    Carl replied:

    "Tad, your observations remind me of when I've operated on 10m
    around solar minimum from the Cayman Islands. Most of the QSOs are
    in the vicinity of MN - which is about 2500 miles (4000 km) from ZF.
    The openings are very selective in location when there aren't enough
    sunspots for shorter distances.

    The 2500 mile distance (4000 km) is right at the maximum F2 region
    hop length for 12m and 10m. That means the F2 region MUF is the
    highest for paths of that length. Thus your FL and XE paths could
    be one F2 region hop. Any shorter paths would need more ionization
    to refract the higher elevation angles for those shorter distances.

    As for New England, the midpoint of the path would be farther north,
    which means a lower MUF.

    The Nebraska path might be via sporadic E, as 2000 km is the maximum
    hop length for the E region. Could the FL and XE paths be 2 hops via
    sporadic E? Perhaps - it'd be nice to have some data, but there
    aren't any ionosondes near those paths.

    If I had to bet, I'd go with one F2 region hop for FL and XE, and
    one Es hop for Nebraska."

    On May 25th I replied:

    "Attached is an image from pskreporter from this morning on 12
    meters, with Florida represented by better conditions with coverage
    up the east coast."

    Carl responded:

    "That PSKreporter image with the densest reports from along the East
    Coast suggests that it was one F2 hop, and that the F2 region was
    better on May 25 at 1942 UTC than the previous days. The day-to-day
    variation of the F2 region certainly explains it well.

    It would be interesting to collect data for the entire day - maybe
    in 2-hour increments to see the patterns versus time. That may be a
    way to distinguish between F2 and Es."

    I received a link from IL4LZH for a page showing interesting
    analysis of signals received at his station over the past few years:

    "Here at https://ft8.chaos.cc

    You can find some data plots that I have collected in recent years.

    They are analyzed by ITU zone and hours of days. Horizontally 40 ITU
    zone inside ITU zone hours from 00 to 23 vertically day of the month
    green intensity linked to intensity of signal."

    Carrington event, https://bit.ly/3LTeCfm

    Dr. Tamitha Skov on May 22, https://youtu.be/g8t2U4QKABA

    This weekend is the CQ World Wide CW WPX contest. You may be sought
    after if you have a 2x1 call sign (like my former call, KT7H)
    because the first few characters of your call may be unique. See https://www.cqwpx.com .

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for May 19 through 25, 2022 were 154, 109, 110, 138,
    132, 137, and 93, with a mean of 124.7. 10.7 cm flux was 173.2,
    165.5, 166.7, 164.7, 158.2, 146.9, and 136.5, with a mean of 158.8.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 12, 10, 11, 5, 4, and 6, with
    a mean of 8.3. Middle latitude A index was 10, 12, 9, 11, 6, 3, and
    7, with a mean of 8.3.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Jun 3 17:57:58 2022

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP022
    ARLP022 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP22
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 22 ARLP022
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA June 3, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP022
    ARLP022 Propagation de K7RA

    At 2335 UTC on June 2, the Australian Space Forecast Centre issued a geomagnetic warning.

    "A solar filament recently erupted from the southwest quadrant of
    the solar disk. Event modeling suggests a minor impact to the
    Earth's magnetosphere on late 05 June to early 06 June."

    All our measures of solar activity declined in a big way from the
    last reporting week to the current period, May 26 through June 1.

    Average daily sunspot number plummeted from 124.7 to 52.9, and
    average daily 10.7 cm solar flux receded from 158.8 to 104.3. These
    are dramatic shifts, although well within expected variations at
    this point in solar cycle 25.

    Predicted solar flux for the next month is 100 on June 3 to 5, 98 on
    June 6, 95 on June 7 and 8, then 90, 130, 135, and 140 on June 9 to
    12, then 145, 150 and 145 on June 13 to 15, 140 on June 16 to 18,
    then 130, 125, 120 and 110 on June 19 to 22, 100 on June 23 to 29,
    98 on June 30 through July 3, then 110, 112, 125, 130, 135, and 140
    on July 4 to 9.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on June 3 and 4, 15 and 12 on June
    5 and 6, 5 on June 7 to 9, 8 and 12 on June 10 and 11, 14 on June 12
    and 13, then 8 and 12 on June 14 and 15, 14 on June 16 and 17, 12 on
    June 18, 5 on June 19 to 22, then 16, 22, 12, 10 and 8 on June 23 to
    27, and 5 on June 28 to July 6, then 8 and 12 on July 7 and 8, and
    14 on July 9 and 10.

    OK1HH wrote:

    "Last weekly commentary mentioned the possibility that the current
    25th solar cycle could resemble the nineteenth, which peaked in
    1958. However, it should be recalled that this was before the
    beginning of the satellite era, so compared to cycles 20 to 24 in
    fact, we know very little and comparison is difficult. Today's
    predictions of solar activity, without satellite measurements and
    observations, cannot even be imagined. The possibility of reaching
    such a high maximum as we experienced in 1958 applies under the
    conditions 'if the growth of activity continues with the current
    speed' and it is not the only condition.

    After large active areas sank a week ago, solar activity dropped
    significantly. No major eruptions were observed.

    The surprise was the G1-class geomagnetic storm on May 27th, related
    to the solar flare on the evening of May 25th. According to most
    predictions, the CME should have missed the Earth. In the shortwave propagation, we recorded an afternoon improvement on the 27th,
    followed by a significant degradation in the following days.

    The second surprise was the occurrence of reversed magnetic polarity
    sunspot (AR3027) on June 1st. We commonly encounter this phenomenon
    around the minimum of the eleven-year cycle, later only
    exceptionally.

    The return of higher solar activity can be expected as early as next
    week. A more significant improvement in shortwave propagation awaits
    us around mid-June."

    Thanks to David Moore, about how the current cycle progress is not
    exceptional, and definitely not another Cycle 19.

    https://bit.ly/3M7YOFS

    Interesting.

    https://www.sidc.be/silso/predikfcm

    https://www.sidc.be/silso/ssngraphics

    N0JK wrote on May 31:

    "There was great propagation to South America from the Midwest for
    the CQ WPX CW contest last weekend. Both Saturday and Sunday 10
    meters was open to Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay and other countries. I
    operated 'fixed mobile' with 10 watts and a quarter wave whip. Made
    16 contacts.

    I suspect the higher solar flux from Solar Cycle 25 picking up
    helped with TEP ionization. And sporadic-E set up links to TEP."

    KA3JAW reports:

    "On Wednesday, June 1, 2022, between 1819 and 1833 UTC I received
    WM2XEJ in EM83 calling CQ using FT8 on the experimental 8-meter (40
    MHz) band via short-haul sporadic-E. Distance 670 miles, azimuth 220
    deg.

    The 8-meter experimental band is within the worldwide Industrial-Scientific-Medical (ISM) segment between 40.660 to 40.700
    MHz with a 40 kHz bandwidth, center frequency on 40.680.

    WM2XEJ is an FCC Part 5 Experimental Radio Service station operated
    by Tom Mills, WB4JWM in Eatonton, Georgia.

    Tom is authorized to operate at 400 watts ERP using CW, SSB, FT4,
    FT8, WSPR, and Q65.

    Tom uses an Icom IC-9100 rig into a vertical loop antenna at 300
    watts ERP.

    This was the second time I received WM2XEJ via sporadic-E. The first
    time was on Saturday, April 30, 2022, between 1607 and 1632 UTC.

    Here is an update to the 8-meter experimental band which happened
    today, Thursday, June 2, 2022.

    Sporadic-E started at 1521 til 1917 UTC.

    1521 to 1917 UTC WM2XEJ EM83 3RD time received via FT8, 670 miles,
    azimuth 220 deg.

    1704 to 1718 UTC WM2XAN EN74 1ST time received via FT8, 547 miles,
    azimuth 298 deg."

    More on 8 meter experimental stations:

    https://bit.ly/3tcsPhb

    Nice images:

    https://bit.ly/3NQ6LRs

    Correction: In last week's bulletin change IL4LZH to Gianluca
    Mazzini's actual call sign, IK4LZH.

    Another important and timely report from Dr. Tamitha Mulligan Skov,
    WX6SWW.

    https://youtu.be/JggsnMpwnrA

    Check out her recently updated listing at QRZ.com.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for May 26 through June 1, 2022 were 87, 69, 34, 42,
    40, 39, and 59, with a mean of 52.9. 10.7 cm flux was 122.7, 113.6,
    101.8, 98.4, 100.6, 98, and 104.2, with a mean of 104.3. Estimated
    planetary A indices were 4, 17, 24, 15, 9, 9, and 6, with a mean of
    12. Middle latitude A index was 6, 14, 19, 14, 8, 8, and 8, with a
    mean of 11.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Jun 10 12:00:13 2022

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP023
    ARLP023 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP23
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 23 ARLP023
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA June 10, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP023
    ARLP023 Propagation de K7RA

    Hard for me to believe, I had to blink to make sure, but on
    Wednesday, June 8 for the first time this calendar year there were
    no sunspots, even though two new sunspot regions appeared on June 4.

    Average daily sunspot number declined to 44 from 52.9 last week.
    Average daily solar flux was only 99.4, down from 104.3 last week
    and 158.8 the week before.

    News about the first spotless day can be found here:

    https://bit.ly/39cOiQk

    I am grateful that on Thursday, June 9, a new sunspot group emerged,
    bringing the sunspot number for the day to 17.

    Predicted solar flux is 105 on June 10, 110 on June 11-16, 115 on
    June 17, 120 on June 18, 125 on June 19-20, 150 on June 21, 110 on
    June 22, 100 on June 23 through July 3, 105 on July 4-5, 110 on July
    6-10, then 115 on July 11-13, 120 on July 14, and 125 on July 15-16.

    Assuming the above prediction is true, this would mean average daily
    solar flux rising from 99.4 to 109 over the next reporting week and
    123 the next.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on June 10-14, then 8, 12 and 8 on
    June 15-17, 5 on June 18-22, then 12, 18, 10 and 8 on June 23-26, 5
    on June 27 through July 9, then 12, 8, 12, 10 and 8 on July 10-14,
    and 5 on July 15-19.

    Despite the recent downturn, Solar Cycle 25 activity exceeds the
    official forecast:

    https://helioforecast.space/solarcycle

    According to Spaceweather.com, May 2022 sunspot activity was the
    highest it's been in eight years.

    OK1HH wrote:

    "As during the last solar revolution, solar activity has been low in
    the last two weeks.

    "On June 8, the Sun was even empty - no sunspots - R = 0.

    "This is a remarkable development more than 2 years after the
    beginning of Solar Cycle 25. However, during the last few hours,
    rapid spots have been observed near the central meridian. In
    addition, NASA's STEREO-A spacecraft is monitoring a probable group
    of sunspots approaching beyond the northeastern edge of the Sun:

    "https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov

    "It should be followed by other groups of spots, which will increase
    solar activity again.

    "The Earth's magnetic field was largely quiet, except for an
    increase in activity on June 6.

    "The result was an improvement in the propagation conditions on June
    6 and a degradation on June 7 and the morning of June 8. Gradual
    improvement can be expected in the coming days."

    W9NY wrote:

    "Just got a new dipole up on 10 meters on my condo roof which is
    over 400 feet off the ground overlooking Lake Michigan.

    "Made a couple of contacts late this afternoon into Texas and
    Louisiana S5-S6 and nothing else on the band, until a ZL called me
    from New Zealand about 6:20 PM local time. He gave me an S9, and he
    was S5. Just like the good old days on 10 meters!

    "The ionosphere has to be working, I think, to get over to New
    Zealand."

    Some observations from K7RA on 6 and 12 meters this week:

    On June 4, at 1745 UTC on 6 meter FT8 I worked KB1EFS/2 in Cape
    Vincent, New York.

    On pskreporter.info I saw that my signal was propagating along a
    very narrow arc at 72-74 degrees received only by a concentration of
    stations in the northeast USA. No real 6 meter antenna here, just a
    32 foot end-fed wire, 4:1 UnUn and autotuner, mostly indoors on the
    second floor of my 1907 all wood Craftsman home.

    Just prior to that at 1730 UTC I seemed to be monitored only by
    stations 2000-2500 miles from me in an arc with bearings 77-79
    degrees with WA9WTK at the south and VE3TTP at the north.

    On June 9 at 2300 UTC on 12 meters FT8 I am only heard by N4DB at 91
    degrees, 2292 miles and K4BSZ at 94 degrees, 2276 miles. Then at
    2320 UTC, WB4EVH at 2326 miles and 103 degrees bearing, at 2330 UTC,
    VK5PJ at 8306 miles, 250 degrees.

    Here is an article about aurora:

    https://bit.ly/398hPdM

    Mostly good info, except the statement about being half way through
    this Solar Cycle. I guess we might be half way toward the peak.

    Here is a link about the K-index:

    https://bit.ly/3xnDrLc

    Here is a nice solar image, and another interesting link:

    https://bit.ly/3xlrB4B

    https://bit.ly/3x9WNna

    Amateur Astro photographer and his image:

    https://bit.ly/3NILWYo

    More information here:

    https://bit.ly/3QcuX2a

    Here is a 3-week movie of sunspot activity:

    https://bit.ly/3zqGu87

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
    please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
    an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for June 2 through 8, 2022 were 59, 52, 75, 57, 45,
    23, and 0, with a mean of 44.4. 10.7 cm flux was 100.9, 100.7,
    100.9, 98.7, 96.4, 98.4, and 99.9, with a mean of 99.4. Estimated
    planetary A indices were 5, 4, 4, 4, 10, 8, and 5, with a mean of
    5.7. Middle latitude A index was 5, 4, 4, 5, 10, 11, and 5, with a
    mean of 6.3.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Jun 17 11:21:38 2022

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP024
    ARLP024 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP24
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 24 ARLP024
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA June 17, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP024
    ARLP024 Propagation de K7RA

    Solar activity increased this week, which we were happy to see, with
    average daily sunspot number rising from 44.4 last week to 74.3
    during this reporting week, June 9-15. Sunspot numbers rose all
    week, starting at 17 on Thursday, June 9 to 149 on Wednesday, June
    15.

    Average daily 10.7 cm solar flux increased from 99.4 to 123.9. Solar
    flux peaked at 145.5 on Tuesday, June 14, but then on Thursday the
    noon daily reading at the Penticton observatory was 146.7, an
    increase from 140 the day before. Also on Thursday, daily sunspot
    number increased from 149 on Wednesday to 159.

    The Penticton observatory does three daily readings of solar flux,
    but it is the local noon reading that is the official solar flux
    reading of the day, and the one we report here.

    You can see the readings at https://bit.ly/3b5OBNk .

    The solar flux outlook appears promising for the next few days. The
    June 16, 2022 forecast from the USAF Space Weather Squadron shows
    solar flux at 146 on June 17-18, then 144, 140, and 138 on June
    19-21, 136 on June 22-24, 100 on June 25 through July 5, then 105,
    110 and 115 on July 6-8, 120 on July 9-11, 125 on July 12-16, 120 on
    July 17-18, 110 on July 19 and 100 on July 20-31.

    Predicted planetary A index, a measure of geomagnetic stability, is
    8 on June 17-18, 5 on June 19-24, then 10, and 8 on June 25-26, 5 on
    June 27 through July 7, 8 on July 8-10, then 5, 8, 12, 10 and 8 on
    July 11-15, then 5 on July 16-19, then 12, 18, 10 and 8 on July
    20-23, and 5 through the end of the month.

    You can find daily updates for predicted solar flux and A index at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/45-day-ap-forecast.txt . Updates
    are posted every afternoon, North America time.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:

    "Solar activity grew. The most significant phenomenon was observed
    in the southeast quadrant of the solar disk - a long-duration (LDE)
    M3/1n solar flare, observed at 0407 UTC on June 13, accompanied by
    type-II and IV radio emissions and radio bursts.

    "The associated CME was visible off the east. The arrival of the
    ejected cloud of particles on Earth was calculated to the afternoon
    of June 15.

    "Interplanetary magnetic field strength increased at 0400 UTC on
    June 15. Solar wind speed was about 500 km/s until shock arrival,
    when it escalated to 550 km/s and eventually peaked at 624 km/s at
    0556 UTC. The geomagnetic field was quiet to active, with an
    escalation to G1 (Minor) storm levels during the 1200-1500 UTC in
    reaction to CME effects.

    "The MUF increase caused by the storm was registered on June 15 at
    two intervals, first after 0600 UTC and second before 1200 UTC. In
    the afternoon to evening a decrease in MUF followed, an increase in
    the decline and an overall worsening.

    "Solar activity will remain elevated for several days, which will
    help conditions return to above average levels. However, in the
    Earth's northern hemisphere, sporadic-E layer will cause very
    irregular development, from increased attenuation to more frequent
    opening of the shortest shortwave bands."

    Here are some solar flare updates:

    https://bit.ly/3xvycJO

    https://bit.ly/3O0re6B

    Thanks to K5EM of the Western Washington DX Club for this study of
    sporadic-E:

    https://bit.ly/39zqIxk

    Here is some information about the Maunder Minimum:

    https://bit.ly/3QubESn

    Go to https://www.spaceweather.com and look for an article that
    appeared June 15-16 titled "Mapping a Magnetic Superstorm."

    Look for this fascinating map: https://www.spaceweather.com/images2022/12jun22/resistivity.jpg .

    It purports to show which areas are more vulnerable to effects from
    geomagnetic storms due to variations in ground and infrastructure
    conductivity.

    Next weekend is ARRL Field Day, a favorite operating activity for
    many of us. The current outlook shows modest solar flux and perhaps
    slightly elevated geomagnetic activity. Predicted solar flux for
    June 24-26 is 136, 100 and 100, with planetary A index at 5, 10 and
    8. Field Day starts on Saturday, but it is worth looking at
    predictions for Friday.

    Look for an update in next week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin
    ARLP025. Field Day rules are at, http://www.arrl.org/field-day .

    A few days ago, Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, posted this:

    https://youtu.be/pv4QmVfz95A

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
    please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for June 9 through 15, 2022 were 17, 33, 41, 63, 96,
    121, and 149, with a mean of 74.3. 10.7 cm flux was 106.4, 110.5,
    112.1, 121.3, 131.5, 145.5, and 140, with a mean of 123.9. Estimated
    planetary A indices were 5, 5, 8, 9, 13, 8, and 20, with a mean of
    9.7. Middle latitude A index was 6, 6, 10, 12, 14, 10, and 18, with
    a mean of 10.9.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Jun 24 13:06:19 2022

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP025
    ARLP025 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP25
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 25 ARLP025
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA June 24, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP025
    ARLP025 Propagation de K7RA

    This past reporting week (June 16-22) began with a bang, when the
    daily sunspot number was 159. But sunspot numbers declined every day
    to finally reach 80 on June 22.

    One new sunspot group emerged on June 15, another on June 16, one
    more on June 18, and another on June 21.

    Average daily sunspot number over the week was 124.6, up
    substantially from 74.3 the previous seven days.

    Average daily solar flux rose from 123.9 to 140.5.

    Average daily planetary A index rose from 9.7 to 11.4, and the
    middle latitude numbers increased one point to 11.9

    It was great to see the Sun covered with spots on Spaceweather.com.
    Use the Archives feature toward the upper right, and you can see the
    daily solar images on the left side of the page for any date in the
    past. I particularly appreciated the image of June 17, our Sun
    blanketed with sunspots!

    Unfortunately, a California wildfire cut off power to the Solar
    Dynamics Observatory Data Center at Stanford University, so solar
    images are not being provided, according to Spaceweather.com.

    ARRL Field Day is this weekend. What is the outlook?

    The latest from US Air Force forecasters Housseal and King at the
    USAF 557th Weather Wing shows predicted solar flux at 120, 115 and
    110 on June 24-26, and Planetary A index of 8, 12 and 15. Field Day
    is actually on June 25-26, but it is useful to see the prediction
    for Friday. The planetary A index shoes a moderate but increasing
    geomagnetic instability.

    Newsweek reported a recent sunspot:

    https://bit.ly/3xNdZiB

    The latest (Thursday night) forecast from USAF shows solar flux at
    120 and 115 on June 24-25, 110 on June 26-27, 100 on June 28-29, 105
    on June 30, 100 on July 1-2, then 105, 110, 115, 120 and 125 on July
    3-7, 130 on July 8-9, 135 on July 10, 140 on July 11-16, then 138,
    134, 125 and 121 on July 17-20, then 114, 118 and 105 on July 21-23,
    100 on July 24-29, then 105, 110, 115 and 120 on July 30 through
    August 2.

    The planetary A index prediction is 8, 12, and 15 on June 24-26, 5
    on June 27 to July 7, then 8, 8, 12 and 8 on July 8-11, 5 on July 12-13,
    12 on July 14-16, 10 on July 17, 5 on July 18-19, then 12, 18, 12 and 10
    on July 20-23, then 5 on July 24 through August 3, and 8 on August 4-5.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:

    "The distribution of active areas on the Sun according to
    heliographic latitudes has changed relatively little during the last
    three solar rotations, therefore the predictions of the overall
    solar activity level were quite reliable.

    "The parameters of the solar wind, measured around the Earth, and
    the activity of the geomagnetic field had a similar course.

    "The highest usable frequencies of the ionospheric layer F2 (MUF)
    were increased on June 19-20. The sporadic E layer played the most
    important role in the shortwave propagation on June 16-19."

    The latest space weather video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/whjz9b0kLhY

    A story about how "We can't reliably predict solar cycles" can be
    found at:

    https://bit.ly/3NiMbbx

    I have no idea what prompted an incredible series of news stories
    late Thursday. Was it a slow news day? Perhaps an indication of a
    respite from national tragedies?

    The following websites contain stories about our Sun, and the
    emergence of a big spot. Interesting because on Thursday the sunspot
    number declined to 69 from 80 the day before, and much lower
    compared to the 124.6 average for the previous seven days:

    https://bit.ly/3zZ30VU

    https://bit.ly/3ODJiTP

    https://bit.ly/3OEDgCA

    https://bit.ly/3bdRWtI

    https://bit.ly/39R3SBu

    https://bit.ly/3nf1B6c

    https://bit.ly/3NieXsZ

    https://bit.ly/3nf1QhC

    https://youtu.be/EJj_zseYqQs

    https://bit.ly/3HOJOMC

    https://bit.ly/3yfrIA8

    https://bit.ly/3Ngyiun

    https://bit.ly/3QMSw1O

    https://bit.ly/3OjuY38

    https://bit.ly/3yiUY9q

    https://bit.ly/3HNMMAO

    https://bit.ly/3tXVlDo

    https://bit.ly/3HOhvhe

    https://inhabitat.com/massive-sunspot-glares-at-the-earth/

    https://bit.ly/3Ngzyh5

    https://bit.ly/3yhj2cH

    https://bit.ly/3QKwcGb

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
    please email the author at, k7ra (at) arrl.net .

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For
    an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for June 16 through 22, 2022 were 159, 152, 145,
    120, 112, 104, and 80, with a mean of 124.6. 10.7 cm flux was 146.7,
    148.9, 140.2, 143.6, 136.5, 138.8, and 128.7, with a mean of 140.5.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 12, 13, 14, 12, 10, 8, and 11,
    with a mean of 11.4. Middle latitude A index was 14, 14, 15, 10, 10,
    10, and 10, with a mean of 11.9.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Jul 1 19:20:38 2022
    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP026
    ARLP026 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP26
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 26 ARLP026
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA July 1, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP026
    ARLP026 Propagation de K7RA

    Solar activity took a dramatic plunge over the recent reporting week
    (June 23 to 29) but geomagnetic activity stayed exactly the same.
    Field Day weekend saw rising geomagnetic numbers, with planetary A
    index at 8, 16 and 23, Friday through Sunday.

    On Sunday the geomagnetic activity was a problem, although not
    severe, with many stations in Field Day reporting increased
    absorption. The planetary K index peaked at 5 (a big number) at the
    end of the UTC day on Saturday and continued into the early hours of
    Sunday, which was early Saturday evening here on the West Coast.

    This happened because of a crack in Earth's magnetosphere, detailed
    here:

    https://bit.ly/3ONZdQ9

    Compared to the previous seven days, average daily sunspot numbers
    declined from 124.6 to 49.1, while average daily solar flux dropped
    from 140.5 to 105.3.

    Planetary and middle latitude A-index averages were both the same as
    the previous week, all numbers around 11.

    The prediction from the USAF 557th Weather Wing is not very
    optimistic, with solar flux peaking at 140 on July 11 to 16.

    The prediction shows 10.7 cm solar flux at 90 on July 1, 95 on July
    2, 105 on July 3 to 5, then 110, 120, 130 and 135 on July 7 to 10,
    140 on July 11 to 16, then 135, 130, 125 and 120 on July 17 to 20,
    and 115, 110, 105 and 100 on July 21 to 24, 95 on July 25 and 26,
    100 on July 27 to 29, then 105, 110, 115, 120 and 125 on July 30
    through August 3, then 130 on August 4 and 5, and back to 140 again
    on August 7 to 12.

    Predicted planetary A-index is 5 on July 1 to 7, then 8, 8, 12 and 8
    on July 8 to 11, 5 on July 12 and 13, 12 on July 14 to 16, 10 on
    July 17, 8 on July 18 to 21, then 12, 15, 15 and 10 on July 22 to
    25, and 5 on July 26 through August 4, then 8, 12 and 8 on August 5
    to 7.

    F. K. Janda, OK1HH writes, "Solar activity has declined over the
    last seven days. Geomagnetic activity was highest on June 26
    (G1-class geomagnetic storm broke out around midnight UT on June 25
    and 26) and was lower on June 28 and 29. On June 26, a big, bright
    CME billowed away from the sun's southern hemisphere. A slow-moving
    CME that left the sun could pass close to Earth on June 30. The
    near miss, if it occurs, could disturb our planet's magnetic field.

    A dark filament of magnetism erupted in the sun's northern
    hemisphere on June 28, but no CME was observed after the explosion.
    Shortwave propagation conditions were relatively worse on June 26
    and 27. After that, they began to improve, but only very slowly due
    to the declining solar activity."

    A new space weather report and forecast from Dr. Tamitha Skov,
    WX6SWW, our Space Weather Woman.

    https://youtu.be/0yAS_FpLTsk

    Tomas Bayer of the Department of Geomagnetism, RWC Prague, at the
    Budkov Observatory wrote this geomagnetic activity summary:

    "After the last active events on June 24 to 26, which without a
    storm event did not exceed the active level (local K-index = 4), we
    expect a geomagnetic activity decrease to quiet to unsettled level
    during the coming seven days.

    More unsettled geomagnetic activity can be expected about July 3 and
    4, and also at the end of the currently forecast period on July 7.
    Then we expect geomagnetic activity at a quiet to unsettled level."

    Here are pictures of the Budkov Observatory:

    https://bit.ly/3ugnUfv

    https://bit.ly/3bH9Pl4

    How big is our nearest star?

    https://bit.ly/3yb6cv6

    Cycle forecasts, wrong or right?

    https://bit.ly/3R3HQfF

    Storm watch, from the popular press:

    https://bit.ly/3bGvXfs

    Reader David Moore, a frequent contributor, sent this:

    https://bit.ly/3Agoo9g

    It hasn't been updated recently, but here is a blog devoted to
    propagation:

    http://ka5dwipropagation.blogspot.com

    Send your tips, questions or comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

    Sunspot numbers for June 23 through 29, 2022 were 69, 60, 31, 33,
    32, 71, and 48, with a mean of 49.1. 10.7 cm flux was 121.4, 115.4,
    108.1, 102, 98.2, 96.1, and 96.2, with a mean of 105.3. Estimated
    planetary A indices were 10, 8, 16, 23, 12, 8, and 6, with a mean of
    11.9. Middle latitude A index was 12, 8, 14, 15, 15, 11, and 7, with
    a mean of 11.7.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Jul 8 17:24:44 2022
    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP027
    ARLP027 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP27
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 27 ARLP027
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA July 8, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP027
    ARLP027 Propagation de K7RA

    On July 7 Spaceweather.com reported a G-1-class geomagnetic storm
    underway, with possible increase to G-2 class. They said it was
    caused by a co-rotating interaction region. The storm subsided, but
    then came back early on July 8.

    Late on July 7 Spaceweather.com presented this animation of a large
    new sunspot AR3053 emerging over the sun's eastern horizon:

    https://bit.ly/3bYQImG

    Notice that unlike here on Earth, the sun's eastern horizon is on
    the left? Perhaps we can explain that in a future bulletin. Your
    input would be appreciated.

    When I suspect HF conditions are disturbed due to geomagnetic
    activity, I look at the latest K index on this site:

    https://bit.ly/3RiFMAh

    The left column of K indices start at 0300 UTC and repeat every
    three hours. At the end of the UTC day, an A index number is
    assigned.

    For an even more up to date indicator, I check here:

    https://bit.ly/3IpOUiQ

    Note the 6 hour, 1-day, 3-day and 7 day options in the upper left
    corner.

    Sunspot activity increased this week, with average daily sunspot
    numbers going from 49.1 to 62.6. But oddly, average daily solar
    flux was down slightly from 105.3 to 103.5.

    Taking a longer view, solar activity is stronger than it was a year
    ago, when average daily sunspot number was 34.7 and average solar
    flux was 86.9 as reported in ARLP027 in 2021.

    Spaceweather.com reported that a CME missed Earth on July 1, but it
    pushed dense solar wind plasma toward us, causing a G1 class
    geomagnetic storm. In the few hours past midnight UTC planetary K
    index was 4, then 5. Alaska's high latitude college A index was 25
    on July 2.

    Predicted solar flux for the next month is 128 on July 8, 130 on
    July 9 and 10, then 128 and 125 on July 11 and 12, 120 on July 13
    and 14, then 115, 110, 100, 95 and 98 on July 15 to 19, 95 on July
    20 and 21, 98 on July 22 and 23, 100 on July 24 and 25, 102 on July
    26, 105 on July 27 and 28, 100 on July 29, 110 on July 30 and 31,
    112 on August 1 and 2, 115 on August 3 to 6, 112 on August 7 and 8,
    110 on August 9, 108 on August 10 and 11, then 110, 100, 95 and 98
    on August 12 to 15.

    Predicted planetary A index 15 on July 8, 5 on July 9 to 12, 12 and
    15 on July 13 and 14, 12 on July 15 and 16, 10 on July 17, 8 on July
    18 to 21, then 12, 15, 10 and 8 on July 22 to 25, 5 on July 26 to
    31, then 8, 25, 12 and 8 on August 1 to 4, and 5 on August 5 to 9,
    then 10, 15, 12 and 10 on August 10 to 13.

    The above forecast is from Sadovsky and Thompson at the USAF 557th
    Weather Wing. See https://bit.ly/3PcPNNC for an article about their
    operation.

    F. K. Janda, OK1HH reports: "A slow-moving CME that left the Sun on
    June 26 finally hit Earth on July 1 and triggered a positive phase
    of the disturbance with improved ionospheric shortwave propagation
    conditions. This was followed by a slight worsening. Then we
    observed a slow improvement thanks to increasing activity of the
    sporadic E layer since 6 July. There was an even greater chance for
    so-called short skips in the early hours of July 7.

    A co-rotating interaction region (CIR) hit Earth's magnetic field on
    July 7th, sparking a G1-class (maybe G2) geomagnetic storm."

    Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, presents a new video, 108 minutes long:

    https://youtu.be/HX0gyP5dqR4

    Earthsky update:

    https://bit.ly/3OSNX4V

    Thanks to Max White for this:

    https://bit.ly/3RgmZpt

    https://bit.ly/3nOYBO0

    Send your tips, reports, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

    Sunspot numbers for June 30 through July 6, 2022 were 40, 30, 57,
    42, 79, 92, and 98, with a mean of 62.6. 10.7 cm flux was 95.7, 98,
    100.2, 102.2, 104.4, 109.4, and 114.6, with a mean of 103.5.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 7, 19, 8, 21, 4, and 5, with a
    mean of 9.8. Middle latitude A index was 5, 8, 17, 11, 18, 4, and
    5, with a mean of 9.7.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Sun Jul 17 15:27:47 2022
    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP028
    ARLP028 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP28
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 28 ARLP028
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA July 15, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP028
    ARLP028 Propagation de K7RA

    Rising solar activity over the past reporting week (July 7 to 13)
    was reflected in increased sunspot numbers and solar flux, and
    rising geomagnetic activity as well.

    Average daily sunspot numbers increased from 62.6 to 102.1, with the
    peak value at 134 on Monday, July 11. Average daily solar flux rose
    from 103.5 to 147.4, with peak values at 164.9 and 164.8 on Tuesday
    and Wednesday.

    A new sunspot emerged on July 7, another on July 10, and one more on
    July 11. Total sunspot area peaked on July 11.

    Planetary A index averaged out at 12.4 (up from 9.8 last week) while
    the middle-latitude A index went from 9.7 to 10.6.

    Toward the end of the UTC day on July 7, Alaska's college A index
    was 46, a very high value, while the last four K index readings of
    the day and the next two were 6, 6, 7, 5, 5 and 5.

    This was caused by a co-rotating interaction region, sparking a G-1
    class geomagnetic storm.

    Look here for info on co-rotating interaction regions:

    https://bit.ly/3P91Xrp
    https://bit.ly/3IBOtlm
    https://bit.ly/3yDwxlU

    The Thursday night prediction from USAF shows improvement from the
    Wednesday outlook, with solar flux at 170 on July 15 and 16, 165 on
    July 17 and 18, 160 on July 19 and 20, then 155 and 145 on July 21
    and 22, 135 on July 23 and 24, then 138 and 148 on July 25 and 26,
    150 on July 27 to 29, 160 on July 30 clear out to August 7, then
    155, 145 and 135 on August 8 to 10, 138 on August 11 and 12, then
    128 and 125 on August 13 and 14, then 130 on August 15 to 17, and
    135 on August 18 to 20.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8 on July 15 to 21, then 10, 20 and
    12 on July 22 to 24, 8 again on July 25 through August 2, then 12
    and 10 on August 3 and 4, and 8 on August 5 to 7, then 15, 28 and 12
    on August 8 to 10, 8 on August 11 to 17, then 15, 20 and 12 on
    August 18 to 20, and 8 on August 21 through the end of the month.

    OK1HH wrote:

    "Solar activity continued to rise as predicted, a little faster than
    we anticipated. The area of sunspots increased significantly. We
    observed several long and large filaments, especially on July 11 and
    12. Geomagnetically calmer days 9 and 10 and 13 and 14 July were
    replaced by G1-Minor Geomagnetic Storm conditions on July 8 and 12.
    The influx of protons of solar origin intensified after the July 9
    eruption (with a maximum at 1348 UT) lasted until July 12.
    Shortwave propagation conditions varied erratically, worst on 8
    July, better starting on 11 July."

    W5CTD wrote on July 9 that the previous Saturday he was playing
    around with a 20 meter Hustler mobile antenna mag-mounted on his
    car.

    He was puzzled at first when he heard stations calling "CQ Contest",
    til he looked it up and found out it was the IARU DX Contest.

    Chuck did not mention what mode he used, so I will assume it was
    SSB. He was surprised to work many European stations, in fact, the
    list seemed to include all the European countries.

    Signals were strong, and he noted that his antenna was
    non-directional, and on his car parked on the street.

    The opening lasted from 0200 to 0400 UTC, but by 0430 the opening
    was over. "One improbable and amazing night."

    KS7T in Montana, who I worked recently on 17 meter FT8, sent me this
    in an email, which I edited:

    "I accidentally came across condx on 15 meter CW during the IARU
    contest that I haven't experienced there since the ARRL CW contest
    back in February 2000 when I was working Europe from Montana at 2 am
    local MST.

    20 started showing some signs of fading to EU right before 11 a.m.
    local and when that happens my instinct usually switches me to 40
    but not this time. My subconscious was begging me to check out 15.
    So I did. First I heard a B4 (China?), so tuned around expecting to
    hear JAs. There were none, but what I did hear was many
    headquarters signals from all over EU. Had been on 15 earlier in
    the daytime and heard and worked two of those plus CR3DX, but that
    was it.

    I wasn't expecting to work any of those EU stns I just heard because
    a lot of them were weak, a few were S9 but fired up on 15 and just
    had to give 'em a call. Well, not only did I work all 19 of them,
    but on first call, too. Had 22 qs in all between 11pm and midnight
    on 15.

    The other 3 were two VK stns and the B4 who was a struggle. He got
    my call OK but took several minutes to get the 06 through to him.

    Last night got on 6 and it had a bit of an opening to the east coast
    but just a few 4s and 2 1s were seen. Worked some 9s and K4RW in
    SC.

    I have 44 states and one JA on 6 meters since 2020 either with my
    tribander or a homebrew 6 el vertical beam on the ground running
    50w.

    I don't think I have ever seen a year like this one propagation wise
    in my 66 years in ham radio. It has been quite frustrating at times
    but also very surprising, too."

    New video a few days ago from Dr. Tamitha Skov:

    https://youtu.be/zd2MQhPmMwM

    Next week I hope to get to reports from N2CG about his WM2XCS 8
    meter (49 MHz) beacon.

    Send your tips, reports, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

    Sunspot numbers for July 7 through 13, 2022 were 80, 81, 89, 113,
    134, 117, and 101, with a mean of 102.1. 10.7 cm flux was 121.3,
    129.6, 136.9, 153, 161, 164.9, and 164.8, with a mean of 147.4.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 20, 19, 6, 7, 12, 18, and 5, with
    a mean of 12.4. Middle latitude A index was 15, 14, 6, 8, 10, 16,
    and 5, with a mean of 10.6.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Mon Jul 25 11:37:37 2022
    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP029
    ARLP029 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP29
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 29 ARLP029
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA July 22, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP029
    ARLP029 Propagation de K7RA

    Solar activity increased over this reporting week, July 14 to 20,
    with average daily sunspot number rising from 102.1 to 137.3, and
    average daily solar flux from 147.4 to 157.6.

    Peak sunspot number was 166 on July 17, and peak solar flux was
    171.4 on July 15.

    Geomagnetic activity peaked on July 19 when planetary A index was 26
    and middle latitude A index at 19. Alaska's high latitude college A
    index was 43, with the K index at 6, 5, 5, 6 and 5 at 0900 to 2000
    UTC.

    Average daily planetary A index decreased this week from 12.4 to
    9.4.

    A crack opened in the earth's magnetic field on July 19, allowing
    solar wind to stream in. It is documented here:

    https://www.spaceweather.com/images2022/19jul22/data.jpg

    At 2241 UTC on July 20 the Australian Space Forecast Centre issued a geomagnetic warning. An increase in geomagnetic activity is
    expected over 22 to 24 July due to the onset of coronal hole high
    speed wind streams."

    Here is the latest forecast from USAF. Predicted solar flux seems
    promising with flux values peaking around 160 on July 30 through
    August 7 and again from August 26 though early September.

    Predicted flux values are 120 on July 22, then 118 on July 23 to 25,
    then 116, 114, 110 and 120 on July 26 to 29, 160 on July 30 through
    August 7, then 155, 145 and 138 on August 8 to 10, then 138 on
    August 11 and 12, then 128 and 125 on August 13 and 14, 130 on
    August 15 to 17, 135 on August 18 to 20, 138 and 148 on August 21
    and 22, 150 on August 23 to 25, and 160 on August 26 to September 3.

    Predicted planetary A index is 20, 40, 14 and 10 on July 22 to 25, 5
    on July 26 to 28, 8 on July 29 through August 2, then 12 and 10 on
    August 3 and 4, 8 on August 5 to 7, then 15, 28 and 12 on August 8
    to 10, 8 on August 11 to 17, then 15, 20 and 12 on August 18 to 20,
    and 8 again on August 21 to 29.

    OK1HH wrote:

    "A week ago we commemorated the BASTILLE DAY EVENT. Twenty-two
    years ago (on the French national holiday of July 14, 2000), the Sun
    sent out a shock wave that reached the edge of the solar system.
    The subatomic particles accelerated by the eruption showered
    satellites and penetrated deep into the Earth's atmosphere.
    Radiation sensors on the Earth's surface detected a rare GLE - a
    ground-level event. And if solar activity continues to grow as it
    is now, we will see something similar in the years to come.

    The most notable recent event was a crack that opened in Earth's
    magnetic field on July 19th, allowing solar wind to enter our
    planet's magnetosphere. The result was a minor G1-class geomagnetic
    storm.

    Starting today, July 21, a slow-moving CME could hit Earth's
    magnetic field (thrown into space by the July 15 solar flare). The
    high-speed stream of the solar wind should follow closely behind the
    CME. Its arrival on July 22nd could intensify any storm the CME
    creates, possibly extending the disturbance until July 23rd.

    In addition, solar activity will decrease in the coming days, which
    combined with G1 is not good for shortwave propagation conditions."

    Rich, K1HTV wrote:

    "Yesterday evening, July 19, 2022 there was an incredible 6 Meter DX
    opening between VK4 and many lucky stations in the U.S. as well as
    the Ontario area.

    At 2311 UTC I decoded VK4MA completing a QSO with KD3CQ in southern
    MD. I was next in line, and quickly worked VK4MA from my FM18ap
    Virginia QTH. I was followed by W3UR, W3LPL, AB3CV, N3OC and W3KX,
    all in MD and KF2T and K4SO in VA.

    Two minutes after working VK4MA I also worked VK4WTN, I also copied
    but did not work VK4HJ.

    I continued to decode the VK4 stations until 2358 UTC. I copied
    VK4MA working K8SIX in MI, W7XU in SD, N0TB in MD, VE3EDY and as far
    northeast as NZ3M in PA, N2OO, W2XI and W2IRT in NJ, W1VD in CT,
    WA1EAZ in MA and K1TOL in Maine, which was Paul's longest ever 6
    Meter DX contact. VK4MA reported logging 27 stations during his
    almost one hour long DX opening to North America.

    To say the least, it was a very memorable opening on the Magic Band.
    The solar flux was near 180 a few days earlier and a K index of 5
    earlier in the day of the opening. Was it F2 skip? Was it TEP?
    Was it SSSP? (Short Path Summer Solstice Propagation, see https://bit.ly/3oswSD3).

    It was some kind of chordal propagation, probably linked to the Es
    opening from the East to Mid-America at the time. I'll leave it up
    to the propagation experts to figure out what mode it was."

    I assume he was using FT8, as Rich said "decoded."

    Jon Jones, N0JK responded:

    "A great report from Rich. I was monitoring at the time. Saw many
    people north and east of Kansas calling VK, but no decodes of VK
    stations. What a great opening!

    As for the propagation mode - my theory is the opening yesterday was
    a "mirror image" of the December-January USA-VK openings. So
    sporadic-E on each end of the path connecting to TEP to cross the
    geomagnetic equator. I have seen K0GU work VK stations in past
    summers on 6 in a similar fashion. The high solar flux helped the
    TEP part of the path. But sporadic-E created the magic."

    George, N2CG has been operating on the 8 meter band with special
    permission from the FCC. Below is an edited version of some of the
    notes he sent me.

    "Back in October 2021 I received from the FCC an experimental radio
    station construction permit and license to operate on 40.66 to 40.7
    MHz and issued the call sign WM2XCS.

    On 26 January 2022 WM2XCS began transmitting as a CW beacon on
    40.685 MHz at 10 Watts output into a vertical ground plane antenna.

    On 26 May I made some changes by removing the vertical antenna and
    in its place installed a 4 element 7 dBd gain Yagi mounted 30 feet
    above ground beaming toward Europe and increased the beacon output
    power from 10 Watts to 20 Watts.

    Now using shorter ID message at 12 WPM, 'VVV DE WM2XCS/B FN20WV NNJ
    AR'. I also increased the output power from 20 Watts to 30 Watts
    that equates to 150 Watts ERP which is the maximum power allowed on
    my experimental license.

    I recently learned that Borut S50B located in Vipava, Slovenia heard
    the WM2XCS CW beacon on 40.685 MHz on 13 June 2022 at 2054 UTC RST
    539."

    WM2XCS/B currently operates daily from 1000 to 0300 UTC.

    You can send reception reports to n2cg@verizon.net.

    I will reply via postal mail with my unique WM2XCS QSL card.
    Indicate in your reception report the date, UTC time, frequency, RST
    report, mode and any remarks.

    If you hear me in QSO with another authorized 8m station, please
    indicate the call sign of that station I was in QSO with. As 8m
    propagation allows I will be looking to have CW and SSB QSOs with
    stations in Ireland, Slovenia and South Africa who currently are
    allowed to operate on 8m.

    I also encouraged reception of WM2XCS/B or WM2XCS to be spotted on
    DXMAPS www.dxmaps.com which lists 40 MHz reception reports."

    George hopes that the FCC might allocate an 8 meter segment for
    radio amateurs, but there may be objections from operators of a
    nationwide network of automated high elevation stations that use
    meteor scatter to report mountain snow pack data.

    See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/8-meter_band for some surprising
    history of amateur radio on 8 meters.

    Space Weather Woman Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW reports:

    https://youtu.be/8wy9TmC9LqY

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for July 14 through 20, 2022 were 133, 141, 153,
    166, 125, 114, and 129, with a mean of 137.3. 10.7 cm flux was 169,
    171.4, 176.2, 161.2, 149.4, 144.1, and 132.2, with a mean of 157.6.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 8, 7, 5, 8, 26, and 7, with a
    mean of 9.4. Middle latitude A index was 5, 7, 9, 6, 10, 19, and 7,
    with a mean of 9.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Jul 29 18:02:57 2022
    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP030
    ARLP030 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP30
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 30 ARLP030
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA July 29, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP030
    ARLP030 Propagation de K7RA

    Although images of the sun this reporting week, July 21 to 27,
    showed plenty of sunspots, only two new spots emerged, one on July
    21, and another on July 25.

    Another new sunspot appeared on July 28, but the sunspot number
    declined to 50 from 52 the day before.

    Average daily sunspot number declined from 137.3 to 91.1, and
    average daily solar flux softened by 50 points to 107.6.

    The headline on spaceweather.com on July 28 said, "Quiet Sun."

    Geomagnetic indicators began this reporting week fairly active, with
    planetary A index at 22, then it quickly quieted down to an average
    of 11.7 for the week, higher than the 9.4 average reported last
    week. Average middle-latitude A index increased from 9 to 10.4.

    A look back a year ago shows this cycle is progressing nicely. In
    ARLP030 in 2021 average daily sunspot number was just 48.9, and
    average daily solar flux only 81.3.

    A year prior the average daily sunspot number in 2020 was just 3.1!
    That is because there were five days with no sunspots, then two days
    with a sunspot number of only 11, which is the minimum non-zero
    sunspot number.

    A sunspot number of 11 does not mean 11 sunspots. It means there
    was just 1 sunspot group (which counts for 10 points) and one
    sunspot in that group, counting for 1, producing a total of 11,
    because of the arcane historical method of counting sunspots.

    Predicted solar flux shows it peaking at 130 on August 11.

    Predicted flux is 92 on July 29 to 31, 90 on August 1, 88 on August
    2 to 4, 92 on August 5, 115 on August 6, 113 on August 7 and 8, then
    120, 125, 130 and 125 on August 9 to 12, 120 on August 13 to 15, 118
    on August 16 and 17, then 114 and 110 on August 18 and 19, 108 on
    August 20 and 21, then 106 and 102 on August 22 and 23, 100 on
    August 24 to 27, 108 on August 28 and 29, 110 on August 30 and 31,
    115 on September 1 and 2, and 113 on September 3 and 4. Solar flux
    peaks again at 130 on September 7.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8 and 12 on July 29 and 30, 8 on July
    31 and August 1, 5 on August 2, 8 on August 3 and 4, 5 on August 5
    to 10, 8 on August 11 and 12, 5 on August 13 to 16, 22 on August 17,
    15 on August 18 and 19, 8 on August 20 and 21, 5 on August 22 to 25,
    10 and 12 on August 26 and 27, 5 on August 28 and 29, 12 and 10 on
    August 30 and 31, and 5 on September 1 to 6.

    USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report, 2200 UTC on 28 Jul 2022

    https://bit.ly/3votD3A

    OK1HH wrote on July 28:

    "Over the last seven days, solar activity has been steadily
    decreasing. From some class C flares to the 'almost no chance of
    flares' announcement today. But we observed some interesting
    anomalies. For example, geomagnetic disturbance on July 21 caused
    two improvements in ionospheric shortwave propagation conditions
    around 1400 and 1930 UTC.

    A CME hit Earth's magnetic field on July 23rd at 0259 UTC. The
    impact triggered a G1-class geomagnetic storm and in the early hours
    of the morning UTC, 6-meter band users were able to establish a
    series of contacts between central Europe and the US East Coast.

    The proton density in the solar wind, which suddenly rose on 27 July
    between 2000 and 2100 UTC, was accompanied by a significant
    improvement in shortwave propagation between Europe and the
    Caribbean, while closed at the same time the path between Europe and
    North America.

    A small coronal hole of positive polarity located just to the north
    of the solar equator that crossed the central meridian on July 26 is
    expected to influence solar wind starting July 29. Geomagnetic
    activity will increase again."

    KD6JUI wrote:

    "I go out in my kayak once per week to operate QRP. Today,
    Thursday, July 28, I set out on Lake Solano (northern CA) not
    expecting much action due to a low solar flux (93.4) and predicted
    MUF of about 14 MHz.

    When I first checked 17m I heard a CW pileup apparently going after
    a Swiss station. I had a couple contacts on 17 and 20m. A couple
    hours later, I moved from the middle of the lake to the shade of a
    tree along the bank (temps were in the high 90s). My loop antenna
    was half surrounded by foliage, which I figured would interfere with
    my signal. Nonetheless, I gave 17m CW a try again, and contacted
    F8IHE almost immediately. All he could copy was my call sign, but
    that was enough for me!

    Always a surprise."

    What are sunspots?

    https://bit.ly/3vk6GhW

    Fun Morse Code app:

    https://morsle.fun/help/

    A fun one-hour twice weekly relaxed CW activity, the Slow Speed
    Test, every Friday and Sunday:

    http://www.k1usn.com/sst.html

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

    Sunspot numbers for July 21 through 27, 2022 were 124, 107, 96, 80,
    100, 78, and 53, with a mean of 91.1. 10.7 cm flux was 121.7,
    114.7, 110.5, 107.1, 102.3, 98.8, and 98, with a mean of 107.6.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 22, 11, 17, 9, 6, 8, and 9, with
    a mean of 11.7. Middle latitude A index was 14, 11, 15, 9, 8, 7,
    and 9, with a mean of 10.4.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Sat Aug 6 03:33:23 2022
    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP031
    ARLP031 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP31
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 31 ARLP031
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA August 5, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP031
    ARLP031 Propagation de K7RA

    Solar activity continued to decline this week, with average daily
    sunspot number dropping from 91.1 to 36.6 and average solar flux at
    95.7, down from 107.6 the week prior.

    Thursday's sunspot number was above the average for the previous
    seven days at 52. Solar flux on Thursday was above the previous
    seven day average at 108.8. The 2300 UTC flux was 111.3.

    We've not seen lower values since mid-April in bulletin ARLP015 with
    average sunspot number at 34.4, and the end of February in ARLP008
    with average solar flux at 95.4.

    To track solar cycle 25 progress, I like to compare current averages
    against the same numbers from last year. In the 2021 version of
    ARLP031, average daily sunspot numbers were 33.1 (lower by 3.5 from
    this week's report), and average solar flux was 83, down 12.7 from
    the current average.

    The lower activity was quite noticeable over the past week on 10 and
    12 meters, but there must still be some daily sporadic-E, from what
    I've seen on an email list devoted to 10 meter propagation beacons.
    I have one myself, K7RA/B transmitting CW from CN87uq on 28.2833
    MHz.

    The outlook from the USAF space weather group shows a meager
    forecast for solar flux, this one from forecasters Hoseth and
    Strandness on Thursday.

    The latest forecast is a bit more optimistic than the Wednesday
    version, with solar flux at 112 instead of 100 for the next few
    days.

    Predicted solar flux is 112 on August 5 to 7, 110 on August 8 and 9,
    112 on August 10, 114 on August 11 and 12, 98 on August 13 and 14,
    100 on August 15 and 16, 98 on August 17 and 18, then 96, 96 and 98
    on August 19 to 21, 96 again on August 22 and 23, 92 on August 24 to
    28, 90 and 92 on August 29 and 30, 94 on August 31 through September
    1, 96 on September 2 and 3, then 98 on September 4 to 10, and 100 on
    September 11 and 12.

    Predicted planetary A index 5 on August 5, 8 on August 6 and 7, then
    5, 14, 12, 18 and 12 on August 8 to 12, 5 on August 13 to 16, then
    22 on August 17, 15 on August 18 and 19, 8 on August 20 and 21, 5 on
    August 22 to 25, then 10 and 12 on August 26 and 27, 5 on August 28
    and 29, then 12 and 10 on August 30 and 31, 5 on September 1 to 6, 8
    on September 7 to 8, and 5 on September 9 to 12.

    OK1HH wrote:

    "Throughout the period, solar activity was low, the Earth's magnetic
    field quiet to unsettled. Shortwave propagation conditions were
    average to slightly below average.

    An interesting phenomenon for observers may have been a giant solar
    prominence - a loop of plasma on the sun's eastern limb.

    But even more interesting was the report of a farside sunspot. So
    big it is changing the way the sun vibrates. Helioseismic maps
    reveal its acoustic echo not far behind the sun's southeastern limb!
    The sunspot will turn to face Earth a few days from now."

    Space Weather Woman Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW put out a new forecast
    on July 29.

    https://youtu.be/F3T4VI1VSPc

    Recently Dr. Skov sent this out (I edited) to her Patreon
    subscribers:

    "This week the Sun is a mixed bag of active regions, coronal holes
    and solar eye candy. Although we aren't expecting any strong
    storming at Earth, we do have a big-flare player in view and are
    expecting some fast solar wind over the next few days (and then
    again sporadically next week). This might give aurora photographers
    at high latitudes a brief show, but it likely wont be much, if any
    better than the weak shows we got this past week.

    Solar flux is finally back into the triple digits, which means
    decent radio propagation again on Earth's day side and along with
    the reasonably low risk for radio blackouts, amateur radio operators
    as well as GPS users should enjoy better than average signal
    reception (and transmission)."

    I like to watch this link to see what might be coming over the next
    few days on our Sun:

    https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/

    On Thursday night over on the left I am seeing lots of white
    splotches, perhaps indicating areas of magnetic complexity and maybe
    sunspots arriving soon. The horizon is at -90 degrees.

    Although the STEREO mission has survived way past the initial design
    life, one of the probes has been gone for a few years, leaving us a
    very limited view of the sun.

    I would love to see a replacement probe, which I have heard might
    cost twenty-million dollars. Or perhaps a brand new advanced
    design? Perhaps one of our domestic billionaires fascinated by
    space flight could make this happen.

    Newsweek has solar news:

    https://bit.ly/3oZmYcB

    Large sunspot emerging:

    https://bit.ly/3oXVMuQ

    Ginormous:

    https://bit.ly/3QpmU1A

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

    Sunspot numbers for July 28 through August 3, 2022 were 50, 40, 27,
    39, 32, 31, and 37, with a mean of 36.6. 10.7 cm flux was 93, 90.8,
    94.3, 95.4, 97.8, 98.8, and 99.9, with a mean of 95.7. Estimated
    planetary A indices were 7, 4, 7, 11, 8, 9, and 8, with a mean of
    7.7. Middle latitude A index was 9, 6, 8, 12, 8, 10, and 7, with a
    mean of 8.6.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Sat Aug 13 10:34:17 2022
    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP032
    ARLP032 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP32
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 32 ARLP032
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA August 12, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP032
    ARLP032 Propagation de K7RA

    Solar activity did a rebound this week, back to more active levels.

    Average daily sunspot number increased from 36.6 to 65.4.

    Average daily 10.7 cm solar flux rose from 95.7 to 111.9.

    Solar wind caused geomagnetic numbers to rise, with average
    planetary A index going from 7.7 to 14.4, and middle latitude
    numbers from 8.6 to 12.1.

    An improved outlook shows solar flux over the next month peaking at
    116 on September 2 to 4. The forecast from USAF/NOAA on Thursday
    evening was improved from Wednesday.

    A look at ARLP032 from 2021 gives a perspective on solar cycle
    progress. A year ago, average sunspot number was 6 and average
    solar flux was just 74.8. Quite a difference from 65.4 and 111.9
    during the past week.

    Predicted flux values are 115 on August 12 to 14, 110 on August 15
    to 18, 108 on August 19, 104 on August 20 and 21, then 98, 100, 102,
    100, 102, and 100 on August 22 to 27, then 102 on August 28 to 30,
    then 108 and 114 on August 31 and September 1, 116 on September 2 to
    4, 112 on September 5 to 7. 110 on September 8 and 9, then 108 on
    September 10 to 12, 106 on September 13, then 104 on September 14 to
    16, 102 on September 17 and 98 on September 18.

    Predicted planetary A index is 12 on August 12, 5 on August 13 to 16
    then 10, 12 and 15 on August 17 to 19, 8 on August 20 and 21, 5 on
    August 22 to 26, 12 on August 27, 8 on August 28 to 30, 5 on August
    31 through September 2, then 14, 18, 14, 10 and 8 on September 3 to
    7, and 5 on September 8 to 12, then 22 on September 13, 15 on
    September 14 and 15, 8 on September 16, and 5 on September 17 to 22.

    OK1HH commented:

    "A geomagnetic disturbance rarely comes completely unexpectedly.
    And even more so in a situation where its source cannot be located
    (or selected from several locations). Moreover, lasting five days.
    All this happened between August 7th and 11th.

    At higher latitudes, the 'STEVE' phenomenon was sighted on August 7
    (Strong Thermal Emission Velocity Enhancement). STEVE is a recent
    discovery. It looks like an aurora, but it's not.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/STEVE

    It all started with a positive phase of disturbance in the
    ionosphere, when shortwave propagation improved. The development
    continued with a deterioration of propagation in the negative phase
    on August 8, followed by generally below average conditions in the
    following days. With a strong influence of sporadic layer E, whose
    activity usually increases as the Perseids meteor shower approaches
    maximum (expected on 12 and 13 August). They are also called the
    'Tears of St. Lawrence'.

    Starting August 12 onward, we expect a longer mostly quiet period."

    NASA expects increasing activity:

    https://bit.ly/3QjOLk5

    Always appreciate The Sun Now page from the Solar Dynamics
    Observatory:

    https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/

    Yet another cycle prediction method:

    https://bit.ly/3SKm29J

    Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW has a 200 minute part 2 of a course on ground
    effects:

    https://youtu.be/cOom5LQ_LBY

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

    Sunspot numbers for August 4 through 10, 2022 were 52, 69, 69, 87,
    63, 58, and 60, with a mean of 65.4. 10.7 cm flux was 108.8, 112.2,
    116.3, 116.1, 113, 109.4, and 107.6, with a mean of 111.9.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 6, 4, 24, 31, 19, and 11, with
    a mean of 14.4. Middle latitude A index was 7, 7, 5, 20, 21, 15,
    and 10, with a mean of 12.1.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Aug 19 20:55:25 2022
    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP033
    ARLP033 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP33
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 33 ARLP033
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA August 19, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP033
    ARLP033 Propagation de K7RA

    At 2334 UTC on August 17, the Australian Space Weather Forecast
    Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning.

    "Periods of G1 conditions expected during 19 and 20 Aug due to the
    combination of coronal hole high speed wind stream and several
    coronal mass ejections observed in the last few days. There is a
    chance of isolated periods of G2 over 19 and 20 Aug."

    Local TV newscasts here in Seattle noted the possibility of aurora
    Thursday night, although observers would need to travel to dark
    areas away from the city for any chance of successful viewing. They recommended using a tripod mounted camera pointed north with a long
    exposure time. This is good advice, as often the dramatic aurora
    photos are done this way, and viewing with the naked eye you see a
    much less dramatic image.

    Last week we noted increasing solar activity, and it continued.
    Average daily sunspot numbers increased from 36.6 to 65.4 last week,
    to 95.6 in the current reporting period, August 11 to 17. Average
    daily solar flux went from 95.7 to 111.9 last week, and 123.7 this
    week.

    But solar flux values have pulled back in recent days, with a peak
    of 134.3 at 1700 UTC on August 15, followed by the standard 2000 UTC
    local noon readings of 128.5, 122.7, and 116.5 on August 16 to 18.

    Predicted solar flux is 125 and 120 August 19 and 20, 115 on August
    21 to 23, then 110 on August 24 and 25, then 100, 94, 96 and 98 on
    August 26 to 29, then 100, 108 and 114 on August 30 through
    September 1, then 116 on September 2 and 3, 112 on September 4, 108
    on September 5 and 6, then 115, 120, 124 and 126 on September 7 to
    10, 124 on September 11 and 12, then 122, 118, 112, 108 and 102 on
    September 13 to 17, then 100 on September 18 and 19, and 94 on
    September 20 to 23, then climbing to 116 at the end of the month.

    Predicted planetary A index is 30, 25 and 8 on August 19 to 21, 5 on
    August 22 to 26, 12 on August 27, 8 on August 28 to 30, 5 on August
    31 through September 2, then 24, 28, 18 and 10 on September 3 to 6,
    and 14, 8, 10 and 8 on September 7 to 10, then 5, 5, 20 and 15 on
    September 11 to 14, then 12, 12 and 8 on September 15 to 17, and 5
    on September 18 to 22, then 12 on September 23, and 8 on September
    24 to 26.

    OK1HH writes:

    "A week ago (since August 12) solar activity started to increase
    very slowly. Since August 13, the eruptive activity in the active
    sunspot AR3079 in the southwest of the solar disk has increased. On
    August 14 it was already possible to predict massive geomagnetic
    disturbances for August 17 and 18 based on the observed CMEs. The
    solar wind speed slowly decreased until August 16. In the meantime,
    eruptive activity increased in AR3078, where moderate strength
    eruptions were observed daily since 15 August.

    The sunspot group AR3078 developed a delta-class magnetic field,
    continued to grow, and continued to produce medium-sized flares that
    caused minor shortwave radio blackouts. The strongest eruption to
    date, an M5 category burst on August 16 at 0758 UTC caused a
    shortwave radio blackout over the Indian Ocean.

    A series of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) added their effect to a
    possible 'cannibal CME event' (if a second CME could overtake and
    engulf the first, creating a mishmash of the two). The forecast for
    a massive geomagnetic disturbance has been extended to August 17 to
    19.

    Active sunspot AR3078 is producing strong solar flares of class M
    for the third consecutive day. The most recent, an M2 explosion on
    17 August (1345 UT), hurled a plume of cool dark plasma into space.
    But like the other CMEs produced by AR3078 this week, this one will
    pass through the southern edge of Earth's impact zone. So the
    disturbance won't be as widespread as if the CME had hit Earth
    directly.

    The increased activity on 15 to 17 August caused improved shortwave
    propagation conditions and a noticeable increase in MUF. The best
    day was August 17. A significant deterioration and decrease in MUF
    occurred on 18 August. In the following days, the solar flare
    activity and the intensity of geomagnetic disturbances start to
    decrease. A calming trend can be expected after about 22 August."

    Tamitha Skov says "Don't worry, this is not a Carrington Event", in
    an 84 minute video titled "Incoming Solar Storm Crush":

    https://youtu.be/TCypTeodMYo

    Even Newsweek is reporting it:

    https://bit.ly/3K0S5hw

    https://bit.ly/3PzcTOg

    And of course, British tabloids:

    https://bit.ly/3wb0zgc

    And NOAA:

    https://bit.ly/3A537Ob

    Violent solar activity:

    https://bit.ly/3K3uQDw

    Strong storm:

    https://bit.ly/3c998kT

    Aurora in Montana:

    https://bit.ly/3QCbzeK

    Radiation storm!

    https://bit.ly/3AwWuFR

    John Kludt, K7SYS asked, "I recently moved from the Atlanta,
    Georgia, area to Sandpoint, Idaho.

    My question is that in geomagnetic forecasts they make a distinction
    between 'mid-latitudes' and 'high-latitudes.' Where do
    'mid-latitudes' stop and 'high-latitudes' begin?

    The other mystery to me is looking at my logbook since moving here
    two years ago, it would seem I was working more Dx at solar cycle
    minimum than I am now. The station is the same for the entire
    period and all of the numbers I track on my antennas are stable.

    One of the conclusions I have come to, maybe incorrectly, is 'The
    good news is the sun is more active and the bad news is the sun is
    more active.' As with so many things, there is no free lunch."

    My response: I don't know of any standards specifying what defines
    high latitude or low latitude, except for North America, Atlanta at
    33.8 degrees north would be low latitude, Sandpoint at 48.3 degrees
    would be moderately high for North America, and Fairbanks, Alaska at
    64.8 degrees would be high.

    I remember years ago K7VV was living in Alaska and reported to me
    that during a particularly long period of high geomagnetic activity,
    there just was no HF propagation, due to the concentration of the
    disturbance closer to the poles.

    You might notice better propagation from Atlanta. I've noticed
    using PSKreporter.info on 10 meters FT8, looking at the "country of
    callsign" setting, often it shows lots of propagation from the SE
    states and nothing here in the northwest. Don't know why that is,
    but gradually the propagation will drift out this way. So Atlanta
    being 3 hours earlier will show 10 meter propagation before we get
    it here. It seems to me that often HF propagation from southern
    states is better than it is here for us in the Pacific Northwest,
    what Jack Bock, K7ZR (SK) referred to as the "sufferin' sevens".

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for August 11 through 17, 2022 were 58, 97, 116,
    104, 92, 119, and 83, with a mean of 95.6. 10.7 cm flux was 114.8,
    119.5, 124.2, 125.5, 130.6, 128.5, and 122.7, with a mean of 123.7.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 16, 7, 10, 7, 6, 5, and 31, with
    a mean of 11.7. Middle latitude A index was 12, 6, 10, 9, 6, 5, and
    22, with a mean of 10.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Aug 26 12:12:50 2022
    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP034
    ARLP034 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP34
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 34 ARLP034
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA August 26, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP034
    ARLP034 Propagation de K7RA

    On August 18 a new sunspot group emerged, another on August 21, then
    two more on August 23, and three more on August 25, when the sunspot
    number jumped to 94 from 46 the previous day. Total sunspot area
    more than doubled from Wednesday to Thursday.

    Solar activity overall was down slightly for the reporting week,
    August 18-24, with average daily sunspot number declining from 60.8
    during the previous seven days to 58.7, and average solar flux from
    123.7 to 104.5.

    Planetary A index changed from an average of 11.7 to 12.6, and
    middle latitude A index measured at a single magnetometer in
    Virginia was 11, after an average of 10 last week.

    As an indicator of rising solar activity, a year ago this bulletin
    reported average daily sunspot number at 17.7, 41 points below this
    week's report.

    The Thursday night forecast from the 557th weather wing at Offut Air
    Force Base shows a probable peak of solar flux for the near term at
    130 on September 11 and again on October 8.

    Predicted solar flux is 120 on August 26-27 (up from 105 in the
    previous day's forecast), 115 on August 28, 110 on August 29-31, 115
    on September 1-2, 116 on September 3-4, 112 on September 5, 108 on
    September 6-7, then 115, 120, 124 and 130 on September 8-11, then
    128, 120, 118, 105 and 102 on September 12-16, 98 on September
    17-18, 96 on September 19-21, 94 on September 22-24, then 92, 98 and
    100 on September 25-27, then 108, 114, 116 and 116 on September 28
    through October 1.

    Predicted planetary A index has some surprises in store, at 5 on
    August 26, 8 on August 27-28, 10 on August 29, 5 on August 30-31, 8
    September 1-2, then jumping way up to 30, 38 and 20 on September
    3-5, then 15, 18, 10, 12 and 8 on September 6-10, 5 on September
    11-12, then 12, 15 and 10 on September 13-15, 8 on September 16-17,
    then 25, 15 and 8 on September 18-20, 5 on September 21-22, 12 on
    September 23, then 8 on September 24-26, 5 on September 27-29, then
    back up to 30, 38, 20, 15 and 18 on September 30 through October 4,
    an apparent echo of the prediction for September 3-7.

    The above predictions were from USAF forecasters Easterlin and
    Sadovsky.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:

    "As in the previous solar rotation, the Sun's activity continued to
    decline. Geomagnetic activity, however, has increased. More
    pronounced eruptive activity was mainly in the southwest quadrant of
    the solar disk.

    "The active sunspot, AR3078, produced several M-class solar flares
    and more than a dozen C-class flares. Most of the eruptions hurled
    particles into space. The first CME hit Earth's magnetic field on
    August 20. The next active sunspot group, AR3085, behaved similarly
    after reaching the same active heliographic longitude as the
    previous sunspot, AR3078.

    "Sunspot AR3085 grew more than ten times larger and turned into a
    double sunspot group with cores almost as wide as the Earth.
    Finally, a new sunspot, AR3088, appeared, again in the southern
    hemisphere of the Sun.

    "Attention is now drawn to a large coronal hole in the southeastern
    solar disk that could affect the solar wind after it appears near
    the central meridian.

    "With the current type of development, predictions of further events
    are more difficult than usual. Either way, we now expect a
    quasi-periodic increase in solar activity."

    Here is a news article about a large sunspot:

    https://bit.ly/3KhmOHj

    British tabloid sunspot news:

    https://bit.ly/3CvCdSz

    Here is an article about a planet-sized sunspot:

    https://bit.ly/3PL6IXy

    A Nature World News story about a big sunspot:

    https://bit.ly/3csY16x

    A report about eleven discoveries and the coming solar max, from
    American Geophysical Union:

    https://bit.ly/3R95HcW

    From Space.com, the threat of unexpected flares:

    https://bit.ly/3AL32AS

    Here is a paper on solar rotations:

    https://bit.ly/3e0p5ux

    I did not include an article titled "Destructive solar storms are
    possible as Sun approaches height of its terrifying solar cycle."
    The article claimed that Solar Cycle 25 peak will be a year from
    now, rather than the consensus prediction of 2025.

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for August 18 through 24, 2022 were 83, 74, 56, 56,
    44, 52, and 46, with a mean of 58.7. 10.7 cm flux was 116.5, 105.4,
    101.5, 97, 102.6, 100.9, and 107.8, with a mean of 104.5. Estimated
    planetary A indices were 26, 20, 14, 14, 7, 4, and 3, with a mean of
    12.6. Middle latitude A index was 19, 15, 16, 13, 7, 3, and 4, with
    a mean of 11.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Sep 2 14:25:43 2022
    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP035
    ARLP035 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP35
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 35 ARLP035
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA September 2, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP035
    ARLP035 Propagation de K7RA

    The past week saw many interesting events. The DRAO observatory at
    Penticton, British Columbia (the source of 10.7 cm solar flux
    measurements) was overwhelmed by solar flares, and at 2000 UTC on
    August 28 reported a solar flux value of 251.9, and the next day at
    1700 UTC, a value of 357.1.

    The 2000 UTC local noon numbers are the official solar flux number
    for each day, so for the August 28 value I chose to report the 2300
    UTC number of 133.5 instead.

    I checked with astronomer Andrew Gray at Penticton, and he reported,
    "The high values are indeed because of solar activity, both
    yesterday and today flares occurred right during our flux
    measurements."

    Solar activity increased this reporting week (August 25-31) with
    average daily sunspot numbers rising from 58.7 to 74.9 and solar
    flux from 104.5 to 123.8.

    Without that correction for August 28, average daily solar flux
    would have been 140.8 instead of 123.8.

    I have seen these errors in the past, but they are rare. When they
    occur, there is only 1/3 chance they will happen during the daily
    2000 UTC reading, which sends them into the official daily solar
    flux data.

    Note that NOAA did not correct the high false value:

    https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/daily-solar-indices.txt

    Average daily A index was a little lower, the planetary values
    shifting from 12.6 to 10.1 and middle latitude from 11 to 9.4.

    Three new sunspot groups appeared on August 25 at the beginning of
    the reporting week, but none until September 1, with two new sunspot
    groups. The daily sunspot number rose from 42 on Wednesday to 67 on
    Thursday.

    Total sunspot area peaked on August 27.

    Predicted solar flux is more optimistic in the Thursday night
    version, as opposed to the Wednesday forecast reported in the ARRL
    Letter.

    Instead of 110 on September 2, the latest forecast is 116, 118 and
    118 on September 2-4, 115 on September 5, 110 on September 6-8, then
    118, 124, 130 and 128 on September 9-12, then 120, 117, 105 and 102
    on September 13-16, then 98 on September 17-18, then 104, 102 and
    108 on September 19-21, 118 on September 22-23, 124 and 125 on
    September 24-25, 120 on September 26-28, 115 on September 29 to
    October 1, then 112 on October 2, 108 on October 3-4, then 115, 120,
    124 and 130 on October 5-8.

    Flux values may briefly dip below 100 in mid-October.

    Predicted planetary A index is 10, 15, 30, 25 and 15 on September
    2-6, 10 on September 7-8, 12 and 8 on September 9-10, 5 on September
    11-12, then 12, 15 and 10 on September 13-15, 8 on September 16-17,
    5 on September 18-23, then 14, 10 and 8 on September 24-26, 5 on
    September 27-29, then 30, 38, 20, 15, 18, 10, 12 and 8 on September
    30 through October 7, and 5 on October 8-9.

    At 0209 UTC on September 2 the Australian Space Weather Forecasting
    Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning: "Disturbed
    conditions caused by a high speed wind stream in a geoeffective
    direction are expected September 3-5."

    Frantislav K. Janda, OK1HH shares his weekly commentary:

    "The recent rise in solar activity, especially during August 27-30,
    was triggered by two sunspot groups, AR3088, which on 29 August fell
    behind the western limb of the solar disk, and AR3089, which on 30
    August passed through the central meridian, so entered the region of
    the so-called present active longitudes.

    "Both sunspot groups are in the southern hemisphere of the Sun,
    while in both were daily registered flares of moderate magnitude.
    CMEs have been registered in four cases. Given the proximity of the
    coronal hole, we would expect a significant increase in geomagnetic
    activity, but only at first approach.

    "However, there was only a slight increase in geomagnetic activity,
    confirming the current solar wind path models. We expect it to
    intensify and then increase in geomagnetic activity since about
    September 4 onwards. A further gradual increase in total solar
    activity can be expected a few days later."

    I (K7RA) noticed some curious 12 meter propagation, testing the band
    using FT8 on https://pskreporter.info/pskmap.html. This way I can
    see instantly where my signal is heard, and get accurate, objective
    signal reports.

    On August 31 at 2038-2116 UTC my calls were heard nowhere in North
    America outside my local area, which were stations 4-54 miles away.
    But all stations hearing me were in a straight line running through
    Mexico and Central America, then down to Brazil.

    XE1GLL, XE1EE, and XE1AQY, down to V31MA, LU6FL and PU3MSR. No 12
    meter resonant antenna, just a 32 foot end-fed indoor wire fed with
    a 4:1 UnUn transformer and automatic antenna tuner.

    Other curious 12 meter behavior was on Saturday, August 27 at 2252
    UTC when the only stations hearing me (FT8 again) were ZL2OK at
    7,120 miles with a strong signal report of +4 dB and WH6FXV at 2,649
    miles.

    Ten minutes later at 2302 UTC JA1QGI was the only station reporting,
    from 4,746 miles away. Four minutes later JN4MIV reported. At 2312
    UTC ZL2OK was back, this time reporting -4 dB, 8 dB lower than the
    earlier report.

    At 2315 UTC I worked JH6RKI and copied several more Japanese
    stations.

    Newsweek Magazine has been reporting interesting solar news
    recently:

    https://bit.ly/3q5XACl

    And Forbes.

    https://bit.ly/3AOWD6G

    Is "The Independent" one of the UK Fleet Street tabloids? Perhaps a
    RSGB member could inform us.

    https://bit.ly/3e5kJlF

    Another wonderful report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, ham radio's
    own Space Weather Woman:

    https://youtu.be/hh_EPRjMmzY

    In the following links, many are presented for your amusement only.
    I do not believe that a huge solar flare will ever engulf the Earth.

    A canyon of fire: https://bit.ly/3RcWSiy

    EarthSky reports (page down): https://bit.ly/3wRStK1

    A report four weeks old, but still relevant: https://bit.ly/3KH0yH4

    Growing sunspot a threat: https://bit.ly/3cEgFZt

    Our angry Sun: https://bit.ly/3cHMiBm

    This one is a bit over the top: https://bit.ly/3TzEnqd

    From a few days ago: https://bit.ly/3CSJFY3

    Radio blackouts: https://bit.ly/3Rwwpwa

    Flares and blackouts: https://bit.ly/3KH2jEa

    More Flares: https://bit.ly/3e5ninN

    Existential threat: https://bit.ly/3Qc3MDE

    Flare facing Earth: https://bit.ly/3q5gzgv

    Sunspot somehow destroys Earth: https://bit.ly/3cHGSGy

    The 61st annual All Asian DX Phone contest is this weekend.
    Information can be found here: https://bit.ly/3ALPkwa

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for August 25 through 31, 2022 were 94, 88, 84, 79,
    87, 50, and 42, with a mean of 74.9. 10.7 cm flux was 117.8, 118.6,
    127.5, 133.5, 130.6, 125.6, and 113.3, with a mean of 123.8.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 5, 14, 7, 14, 13, and 13, with
    a mean of 10.1. Middle latitude A index was 5, 5, 11, 7, 13, 13, and
    12, with a mean of 9.4.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Sep 9 20:05:09 2022
    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP036
    ARLP036 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP36
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 36 ARLP036
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA September 9, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP036
    ARLP036 Propagation de K7RA

    This week (September 1 to 7) two new sunspot groups emerged on
    September 1, two more on September 2, one more on September 5,
    another on September 6 another on September 7 and one more on
    September 8 when the sunspot number rose to 75, 7 points above the
    average for the previous seven days.

    But average daily sunspot numbers declined from 74.9 to 68, while
    average daily solar flux rose just two points from 123.8 to 125.8.

    On Thursday night the sun is peppered with spots, but none are
    magnetically complex and solar flux seems listless at 126.6, barely
    above the average for the previous seven days.

    Geomagnetic indicators were way up, average daily planetary A index
    rose from 10.1 to 24.6, while middle-latitude numbers increased from
    9.4 to 17.4.

    September 4 was the most active day, when planetary A index was 64.
    On that day the college A index in Fairbanks, Alaska was 91.

    Predicted solar flux is 125 on September 9 to 13, 120 on September
    14, 115 on September 15 and 16, then 125, 126 and 120 on September
    17 to 19, 125 on September 20 and 21, 115 on September 22 to 24, 120
    on September 25 to 28, 118 on September 29 and 30, 115 and 125 on
    October 1 and 2, 120 on October 3 and 4, 122 on October 5, 120 on
    October 6 and 7, 125 on October 8 to 11, 126 on October 12, 125 on
    October 13 and 14, and 126 on October 15.

    Predicted planetary A index is 50 on October 1. Otherwise, 8 on
    September 9 to 11, 5 on September 12, 20 on September 13 and 14, 15
    on September 15, 8 on September 16 and 17, 5 on September 18 to 22,
    then 12 and 10 on September 23 and 24, 14 on September 25 to 27, 8
    on September 28 and 29, then 22, 50, 25, 16, 12 and 10 on September
    30 through October 5, 8 on October 6 to 8, then 5, 12, 15 and 10 on
    October 9 to 12, 8 on October 13 and 14, and 5 on October 15 to 19.

    OK1HH writes:

    "Over the past seven days, a large coronal hole moved from the
    central meridian to the western limb of the solar disk. Its
    position relatively close to sunspot group AR3089 meant a high
    probability of a geomagnetic disturbance in the following days,
    since September 4. Its onset as early as 3 September (class G1) was
    related to the intensification of the solar wind and the opening of
    a rift in the Earth's magnetic field. The solar wind flow from the
    large coronal hole finally hit Earth's magnetic field on September 4
    and triggered a G2 class geomagnetic storm.

    At the same time, two sunspot groups so large that they affected the
    Sun's vibrations developed on the far side of the Sun. These were
    AR3088, which had last left the Sun a week earlier and was the
    source of a large CME heading for Venus on September 5.

    On September 7, AR3092 crossed the central meridian and had a really
    long tail above the surface of the Sun. It was a filament coming
    out of the core of the spot and curling up into the solar
    atmosphere. Inside the filament was a long tube of relatively cool,
    dark plasma.

    Thereafter the Sun was relatively quiet. The solar disk was dotted
    by sunspots, but these have a stable magnetic field, so the chance
    of flares was low.

    Earth's magnetic field was mostly disturbed on the 3rd to the 6th.
    Thereafter was unsettled to active on the remaining days. Shortwave propagation was below average, worst at the end of the disturbance
    on September 6. An increase in f0F2 occurred at the beginning of
    the disturbance on September 4.

    Now a few quiet days followed by another disturbance on 13 and 14
    September is expected."

    I (K7RA) have been seeing more strange 12 meter propagation
    recently. Over and over for several days using FT8 as a propagation
    test tool with pskreporter.info, I would call CQ and see that only
    stations in Florida were receiving my signal. It looks very odd on
    the map. Florida does have a very large ham population, but this
    just seems so peculiar.

    Regarding the recent overloading of the sensors at Penticton, I
    noted I had seen this before, but didn't realize how rare it was. I
    paged back through the DRAO archives, and unless I missed something,
    the last one was in 2015 on June 22 when the 2000 UTC flux reading
    was 246.9. The noon solar flux the following day was only 116.1.

    Tamitha Skov's report is a week old, but too late for last week's
    bulletin: https://youtu.be/zggTNrpa8Pg

    Two massive sunspots: https://bit.ly/3RKKrKI

    Longtime contributor David Moore sent this: https://bit.ly/3qIDfDL

    Big explosion: https://bit.ly/3Ddd2EC

    Our angry sun: https://bit.ly/3B5ZKHg

    So huge: https://bit.ly/3qlHQLT

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

    Sunspot numbers for September 1 through 7, 2022 were 67, 71, 68, 62,
    79, 56, and 73, with a mean of 68. 10.7 cm flux was 116.3, 129.8,
    123.4, 128.3, 130.2, 126.2, and 126.1, with a mean of 125.8.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 8, 25, 64, 32, 20, and 14,
    with a mean of 24.6. Middle latitude A index was 9, 10, 23, 33, 21,
    14, and 12, with a mean of 17.4.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Sep 16 11:09:20 2022
    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP037
    ARLP037 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP37
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 37 ARLP037
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA September 16, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP037
    ARLP037 Propagation de K7RA

    Solar activity bounced back this reporting week, September 8-14,
    when average daily sunspot numbers jumped from 68 to 92.7, and
    average solar flux from 125.8 to 141.3.

    Fewer CMEs and flares were evident, with average planetary A index
    declining from 24.6 to 10.7, and middle latitude numbers from 17.4
    to 10.6.

    New sunspot groups appeared, one on September 8, three on September
    10, and one more on September 13. Total sunspot area (in millionths
    of a solar disc) on September 12-14 rose from 370 to 870 to 1240,
    the highest value in over a month.

    The sunspot number was highest on September 10 at 122.

    During this week two years ago, there were no sunspots at all, and
    average daily solar flux was only 69.7, over 56 points lower than
    this week, demonstrating the continued progress of Solar Cycle 25.

    The latest (Thursday) forecast from space weather folks at Offut Air
    Force Base shows predicted solar flux peaking at 150 on October 9,
    but with flux over the next few days following this bulletin less
    optimistic than the numbers in the bulletin preview in Thursday's
    ARRL Letter.

    Predicted flux values on September 16-17 are 140 and 135, then 125
    on September 18-19, 120 on September 20-29, 125 on September 30
    through October 6, 130 on October 7-8, then 150, 148, 143 and 140 on
    October 9-12, then 136, 130, 125 and 120 on October 13-16, 125 on
    October 17-18, and 120 on October 19-26.

    Predicted planetary A index shows moderate levels of geomagnetic
    activity until October 1-2. The forecast is 15, 18 and 10 on
    September 16-18, 5 on September 19-23, then 10 on September 24, 14
    on September 25-27, 8 on September 28-29, then 22, 50, 30, 20 and 12
    on September 30 through October 4, then 15, 12, 10, 8 and 5 on
    October 5-9, then 10, 8, 5, 15, 20 and 12 on October 10-15, then 5
    on October 16-19, then 12 and 10 on October 20-21, and 14 on October
    22-24.

    The Autumnal Equinox is only a week away!

    Nice solar video from last month:

    https://bit.ly/3BH9ZDm

    Here is NOAA's latest forecast discussion:

    https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

    Comments from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

    "Although the Sun was speckled a week ago, all areas were quiet and
    overall, the Sun's activity was low. After that, activity began to
    grow rapidly in the northern hemisphere.

    "Sunspot group AR3098 grew larger and on September 11, a C6 class
    flare was registered. The old area AR3088, which was active during
    the last rotation of the Sun, returned in the southeast solar limb.

    "Two solar wind shock waves hit our planet on September 14 at 0630
    UTC and 2313 UTC. The second of them significantly expanded the
    speed of the solar wind, started a disturbance of the Earth's
    magnetic field and caused very uneven shortwave propagation
    conditions, especially on routes leading through higher latitudes.
    Auroral distortion of signals were observed when passing through inhomogeneities in the auroral belt.

    "Further similar disturbances can be expected on September 17th, a
    calm after September 18th and a decrease in solar activity is
    expected after September 20th."

    The following is edited from an email from David Greer, N4KZ in
    Frankfort, Kentucky:

    "With the Sun perking up from its long sleep, one of my favorite
    bands, 12 meters, is also coming alive. I've worked FT8 DX on 12
    meters from time to time for months, but things really came alive
    for me from 1236-1356 UTC on September 14 when I worked 22 DX
    stations back-to-back on SSB.

    "I called CQ and was answered by a Dutch station and after that,
    stations just kept calling and calling. I put 22 DX stations in my
    log. Most were from Europe, but I also worked the Middle East and
    Northwest Africa, 18 different DX entities all together.

    "Some signals were quite strong, mostly because they ran high power
    with beam antennas but one station was thrilled to make the trip
    across the pond from Europe because, he said, 'he was running 100
    watts to an indoor dipole in his apartment.'

    "Some commented it was their first ever 12-meter QSO. I hear that
    often from stations everywhere. Some say they didn't think anyone
    ever used 12 meters. Since 2000, I have 12 meter WAS and confirmed
    182 DX entities on 12 alone.

    "I often call CQ on SSB when the band seems dead, only to have a
    rare DX station respond, such as VP8LP in the Falkland Islands.

    "I was on 12-meter SSB the first night hams in the USA were
    authorized to use the band in 1985. That night, the band was wild
    because of a big sporadic-E opening and strong signals were coming
    from all directions across North America. It was a blast!

    "I am fortunate to have a decent station -- 8-element log periodic
    antenna up 50 feet from a hilltop QTH with a kilowatt amp. But many
    signals were so strong on September 14 that I am sure others with
    modest stations could work many DX stations. I had to QRT at 1356
    UTC even though others were still calling. I got back on the band
    later in the day and worked MW0ZZK in Wales. He was 20 over S9.

    "Don't forget about 12 meters. When 10 meters is open, 12 is open
    too. And don't forget about the phone band allocation, which starts
    at 24.930 MHz in the USA. I've heard some out of band because they
    didn't know where the band edge was.

    "A great propagation tool is the MUF web page operated by KC2G at https://prop.kc2g.com/ . I monitor it constantly. It tells me what
    bands to check out and where I should aim my antenna. Plus, it has
    other interesting data in the menu."

    Thanks to Dave for mentioning that great web site. I notice it has a
    section labeled eSSN, which is Effective Sunspot Number, derived
    from 10.7 cm solar flux. More about eSSN from NorthWest Research
    Associates, based here in the Seattle area:

    https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/ssne24.html

    Also, I would like to add that often 12 meters is open when 10
    meters seems dead.

    Here is more crazy solar news:

    https://bit.ly/3QIrXKd

    Here is Newsweek again:

    https://bit.ly/3UhnuAS

    Some solar wind news:

    https://bit.ly/3BLjh1i

    Lucky us! A brand new video, dated today, from Dr. Tamitha Skov,
    WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/OAOmI-3YxUA

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for September 8 through 14, 2022 were 75, 72, 122,
    113, 117, 93, and 57, with a mean of 92.7. 10.7 cm flux was 126.6,
    126.2, 135.9, 151.5, 150.4, 154.1, and 144.3, with a mean of 141.3.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 19, 13, 12, 9, 9, 4, and 9, with
    a mean of 10.7. Middle latitude A index was 17, 14, 10, 9, 9, 5, and
    10, with a mean of 10.6.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Sep 23 09:12:52 2022
    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP038
    ARLP038 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP38
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 38 ARLP038
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA September 23, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP038
    ARLP038 Propagation de K7RA

    Geomagnetic disturbances were down this week, but so were sunspot
    numbers and solar flux.

    Average daily sunspot numbers declined from 92.7 to 68, and average
    daily solar flux from 141.3 to 134.3.

    On September 22 the sunspot number was 99, well above (by 31 points)
    the average for the previous seven days, a promising indication. We
    hope it may signal a trend.

    But Solar Cycle 25 progresses, a bit better than expected. A year
    ago, average daily sunspot numbers were about ten points lower, at
    58.3, while average solar flux was 87.4, about 47 points lower. Two
    years ago there were no sunspots! We still expect an uptrend lasting
    until Summer 2025.

    Six new sunspot groups appeared this week, the first on September
    15, two more on September 19, another on September 20, and two more
    on September 21.

    Predicted solar flux is 138 on September 23, 130 on September 24-27,
    120 and 125 on September 28-29, 122 on September 30 through October
    7, then 125, 122 and 120 on October 8-10, 118 on October 11-12, 116
    on October 13-15, 138 on October 16, 135 on October 17-18, then 133,
    128, 126, 130 and 125 on October 19-23, 120 on October 24-25, and
    122 on October 26-29.

    Predicted planetary A index is 20 on September 23, 15 on September
    24-25, 8 on September 26-28, then 5, 22, 50, 30 and 20 on September
    29 through October 3, then 12, 15, 12 and 10 on October 4-7, then 8,
    8, 5, and 8 on October 8-11, 5 on October 12-14, then 12, 10, 5, 5,
    20, 18 and 12 on October 15-21, and 8 on October 22-26, then 22, 50,
    30, 20 and 12, a repeat from the previous solar rotation.

    The above predictions were by Dethlesfsen and Ciopasiu at Offut Air
    Force Base.

    Are sunspots really black? A report can be found here:

    https://www.livescience.com/why-are-sunspots-black

    Pleased to report that the 2022 Autumnal Equinox was today, Friday,
    September 23 at 0104 UTC. Both northern and southern hemispheres
    will be bathed in equal amounts of solar radiation, which is good
    for HF propagation.

    Frequent contributor David Moore sent this story about a magnetic
    mystery solved with the aid of the Solar Orbiter:

    https://bit.ly/3DRzhjX

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - September 22, 2022 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    "The setting sunspot region AR3098 still managed to produce an
    impulsive M8-class solar flare on 16 September at 0949 UT. A sudden
    ionospheric disturbance (SWF, or Dellinger effect) affected
    frequencies below 25 MHz for an hour after the flare.

    "On September 17, we expected the high-speed solar wind flow from
    the northern coronal hole to produce a G1-class geomagnetic storm,
    but we registered it a day later. Whereupon the old region AR3088
    appeared on the eastern limb of the solar disk and was given the new
    number AR3102. Although it appeared to be in decay, it grew again.

    "On September 18, we observed five M-class solar flares in the
    setting region of AR3098. However, none of them produced an
    earthward CME.

    "On September 20, another large group of spots appeared over the
    southeastern edge of the Sun, joining the rising and growing AR3105
    - which doubled in size the next day.

    "On September 21, NOAA predicted a minor G1-class geomagnetic storm
    might occur on September 23. A high-speed solar wind stream is
    expected to hit the Earth's magnetic field.

    "On September 22, we could observe the sunspot group complex
    AR3105-3107. The chance of a geoeffective flare should increase in
    the coming days as they enter the Earth's impact zone.

    "Geomagnetic activity was somewhat lower than expected.

    "Shortwave propagation conditions pleasantly surprised us around
    September 17. Therefore, we expected them to improve further as the
    Autumnal Equinox approached. But it didn't happen. They remained at
    average levels, whereby the explanation for why this happened lies
    in the effect of the solar wind on the Earth's ionosphere."

    I (K7RA) had more strange pipeline propagation on 10 meters this
    week, in which my FT8 signal was only reported by https://pskreporter.info/pskmap.html from stations in Florida.

    At 2050 UTC yesterday, AI4FR (2509 miles), N2UJZ (2558 miles),
    KD8HTS (2582 miles), and WC3W (2609 miles) were the only stations
    anywhere receiving my signal. All were less than 100 miles from each
    other. Later PU5CAC (Brazil, 6847 miles) was added to the mix,
    along the same arc as the North America stations.

    I was not using any directional antenna, just a random length
    end-fed indoor wire fed by a 4:1 UnUn and autotuner. Very curious
    results, and it happens often. So, for me, the band was dead, except
    to a very specific location.

    Here is a space weather report from England's Met Office:

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/space-weather

    On September 22, https://spaceweather.com reported three big
    sunspots crossing the solar horizon: AR3105, AR3106 and AR3107.

    Here is always a good reference:

    https://solarmonitor.org/

    NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center:

    https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/

    Solar Dynamics Observatory:

    https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/

    The SOHO site:

    https://soho.nascom.nasa.gov/

    Hilarious solar warning out of India, an EOTWAWKI existential
    threat:

    https://bit.ly/3S67DDZ

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for September 15 through 21, 2022 were 71, 64, 76,
    51, 74, 70, and 70, with a mean of 68. 10.7 cm flux was 139.7,
    131.1, 131.5, 136.1, 127.9, 137.2, and 136.9, with a mean of 134.3.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 4, 5, 11, 11, 8, and 5, with a
    mean of 7.1. Middle latitude A index was 8, 5, 5, 9, 7, 6, and 4,
    with a mean of 6.9.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Sep 30 09:28:56 2022
    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP039
    ARLP039 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP39
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 39 ARLP039
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA September 30, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP039
    ARLP039 Propagation de K7RA

    Sunspot activity rose this reporting week, September 22-28, with
    average daily sunspot numbers increasing from 68 to 105.1. But solar
    flux? Not so much. Average daily solar flux rose from 134.3 to
    138.4.

    So, the sunspot average rose 55% and solar flux only 3%. I usually
    expect the numbers to track more closely.

    New sunspots appeared on September 22 and 23, and one more on
    September 27. On Thursday night (September 29) NOAA reported the
    daily sunspot number at 56, little more than half the average for
    the previous seven days, which is 105.1.

    Tuesday September 27 had lots of geomagnetic activity, with the
    planetary A index at 24 and middle latitude at 33. Spaceweather.com
    blamed an unexpected CME. They also report a huge sunspot beyond the
    Sun's eastern horizon with a helioseismic image at,
    https://bit.ly/3ftpTIN .

    The Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre issued a geomagnetic
    warning at 2146 UTC on September 28:

    "Geomagnetic 27 day recurrence patterns indicate that G1 geomagnetic
    activity is likely during the interval 30-Sep to 02-Oct.

    "INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH
    SPEED WIND STREAM."

    Predicted solar flux from the Thursday night forecast appears much
    more optimistic than the Wednesday numbers, which were in the ARRL
    Letter on Thursday.

    Instead of 135 and 130 for the next few days, they are 148 on
    September 30, 146 on October 1-4, 140 on October 5-7, then 135, 130,
    128 and 132 on October 8-11, then 136 on October 12-13, then 138,
    140, 138 and 135 on October 14-17, then 132, 130, 128 and 125 on
    October 18-21, then 130, 140, 142 and 145 on October 22-25, and 140,
    135, 130, 125, 128 and 130 on October 26-31, then 132 on November
    1-3, and 135, 130 and 128 on November 4-6.

    Planetary A index is predicted at 20, 60 and 40 on September 30
    through October 2, then 20, 18, 16 on October 3-5, 12 on October
    6-7, then 8 on October 8-14, 10 on October 15-16, 8 on October
    17-19, 12 on October 20-21, 8 on October 22-23, 10 on October 24-25,
    8 on October 26-27, then in a recurrent disturbance as sunspots
    rotate into the same position as weeks earlier, 25, 50, 30, 20, 12
    and 10 on October 28 through November 2, and back to 8 on November
    3-10.

    Of course, a planetary A index of 50 or 60 is huge, indicating an
    expected major geomagnetic disturbance.

    From OK1HH:

    "Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - September 29, 2022.

    "Free continuation of predictions of the Earth's magnetic field
    activity, published in the years 1978 - 2021.

    "The following text is very brief as I am traveling around Europe
    without a computer. I will add more next time.

    "An unexpected and unpredicted surprise was the rise of geomagnetic
    activity during the night of September 24-25.

    "Further developments did not take place according to assumptions.
    Which, by the way, is a precursor to the next increase in solar
    activity.

    "Nevertheless, I present a forecast of further disturbances:
    September 30 and especially October 1!

    "http://ok1hh.nagano.cz/ - F.K. Janda, OK1HH"

    Wow, Frantislav manages to submit his report without a computer!
    I've never been to Europe (unfortunately), but I imagine him ducking
    into some sort of Internet kiosk to file his report.

    Here is Dr. Tamitha Skov's, WX6SWW, the Space Weather Woman, report
    from last weekend:

    https://youtu.be/A8flrmnAqQQ

    An article on solar research:

    https://bit.ly/3dPm40p

    Newsweek is at it again:

    https://bit.ly/3CmpW2e

    I continue to see unusual propagation using FT8, such as my signal
    only being received in a narrow band 100-200 miles wide on the East
    Coast of North America.

    You do not need to be an FT8 user to use it to check out the bands.
    Just go to the pskreporter map page at
    https://pskreporter.info/pskmap.html and select the band you are
    interested in (they even have 11 meters!).

    Next, select the default "Signals" and "Sent/Received by" and change
    "the callsign" to "grid square," entering your own four-character
    grid (or one near you with a larger ham population) and in the
    "Using" field select FT8.

    Hit "Go!" and you will see where stations in your area are being
    received, including signal levels.

    You can enter your own call instead of the grid, and select "Country
    of Callsign," and you will see activity all over your nation. I find
    it interesting early in the day to use this on 10 meters, and what I
    usually see is activity all over the East Coast, and especially in
    the southeast U.S. but not here on the west coast.

    But I know that the 10 meter openings will advance across the
    country with the movement of Earth relative to our Sun.

    Explore the "Display options" link just to the right of the time
    listed in the "over the last" field, and you can customize this
    tool. I like to select "Show time text in black always," "Show
    connecting lines always," and "Show SNR."

    The "Show logbook" link is very useful, once you have done a search.
    Often, I will use this, searching for the callsign of an FT8 station
    who has mysteriously disappeared after connecting to me. I can sort
    the entries by Time to find out if anyone has received that station
    since I last saw that station's signal.

    The default "over the last" setting is 15 minutes, but when
    searching for a callsign you can vary the time over the past 24
    hours.

    Have fun!

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for September 22 through 28, 2022 were 99, 111, 128,
    96, 120, 110, and 72, with a mean of 105.1. 10.7 cm flux was 136.7,
    146.3, 146.5, 134.7, 135.1, 134.5, and 134.8, with a mean of 138.4.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 12, 13, 7, 6, 24, and 5, with
    a mean of 10.4. Middle latitude A index was 5, 12, 10, 5, 5, 33, and
    3, with a mean of 10.4.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Oct 7 20:16:35 2022
    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP040
    ARLP040 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP40
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 40 ARLP040
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA October 7, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP040
    ARLP040 Propagation de K7RA

    Sunspot numbers and solar flux increased this week (September 29
    through October 5), as expected with the solar cycle progressing
    toward a probable peak in summer 2025.

    Average daily sunspot number increased from 105.1 to 111.4, and
    average daily 10.7 cm solar flux from 138.4 to 149.2.

    Compare this to a year ago, when average daily sunspot number was
    just 59.4 and solar flux was 89.8.

    This last week there were two new sunspot groups on September 30,
    one more on October 1, three on October 3, and one more on Thursday,
    October 6.

    I have been noticing improved 10 meter propagation with openings
    lasting all day, now that the autumnal equinox passed two weeks ago
    and with higher sunspot numbers.

    Predicted solar flux is 156 on October 7, 154 on October 8 and 9,
    then 152 and 150 on October 10 and 11, 148 on October 12 to 14, 130
    on October 15, 135 on October 16 and 17, 140 on October 18, 145 on
    October 19 to 21, 150 on October 22 and 23, then 145, 140 and 135 on
    October 24 to 26, 145 on October 27 and 28, 150 on October 29, 155
    on October 30 and 31, 145 on November 1, 135 on November 2 to 4, 130
    on November 5 and 6, 135 on November 7, 140 on November 8 and 9, 130
    on November 10 and 11 and 135 on November 12 and 13.

    Predicted planetary A index is 14, 10, 12 and 8 on October 7 to 10,
    5 on October 11 to 13, 8 on October 14, 10 on October 15 and 16,
    then 8 on October 17 to 19, 12 on October 20 and 21, 8 on October 22
    to 29, then 20, 12 and 10 on October 30 through November 1, then 8
    on November 2 to 10 and 10 on November 11 and 12.

    On October 2, Spaceweather.com announced "A Big Dangerous Sunspot",
    AR3112, one of the biggest in years had just rotated over the sun's
    eastern horizon. They predict this could produce two weeks of high
    solar activity.

    F. K. Janda, OK1HH reports, "A week ago it seemed that following
    conditions would be calmer. This assumption was shattered after
    AR3112 sunspot group, with its complex magnetic structure, began to
    appear on the northeastern edge of the solar disk.

    Prior to that, we expected the earth to be hit by a fast solar wind
    from a CME that left the sun on September 28, but only a slight
    increase in geomagnetic activity followed on September 28 and
    October 2.

    However, we did get an X1 flare on October 2 at 2025 UTC, which
    ironically did not originate from the large dangerous AR3112 group,
    but from the smaller and apparently less threatening AR3110 active
    region. It amplified the SWF (shortwave fade out) in the Pacific
    and parts of North America. Apparently, it blasted a CME into
    space.

    This development was followed by the introduction of AR3112 with
    over a dozen dark nuclei scattered over 130,000 km of the solar
    disk.

    It remained the case that most of the incoming CMEs were hurled into
    space by the AR3110 group of spots, in which we observed a series of
    strong flares (M5.9, M8.7, X1) over the weekend.

    As a result, several CMEs headed towards Earth.

    However, the geomagnetic field was only steady to active in the
    following days.

    Not only does the chance for energetic flares in the AR3112 region
    persist, but on October 4, a 200,000 km long magnetic filament
    erupted in the southern hemisphere of the Sun. The plasma clouds
    are not heading directly towards Earth, but some could hit on 8
    October."

    Big filament.

    https://bit.ly/3fOl4KC

    https://bit.ly/3ejTEeZ

    The latest from WX6SWW, Space Weather Woman Dr. Tamitha Skov.

    https://youtu.be/MFOsaEV4CME

    https://youtu.be/ZVSO0grZ5ek

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for September 29 through October 5, 2022 were 56,
    74, 100, 102, 144, 153, and 151, with a mean of 111.4. 10.7 cm flux
    was 137.2, 137.1, 147.9, 153.9, 155.1, 152.4, and 161, with a mean
    of 149.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 13, 3, 12, 24, 16,
    and 14, with a mean of 12.7. Middle latitude A index was 7, 12, 2,
    9, 16, 13, and 11, with a mean of 10.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Oct 14 13:07:20 2022
    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP041
    ARLP041 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP41
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 41 ARLP041
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA October 14, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP041
    ARLP041 Propagation de K7RA

    Average daily sunspot numbers and solar flux increased this week,
    with sunspot numbers going from 111.4 to 114.9, and flux values from
    149.2 to 155.3.

    A feel-good exercise is to compare these numbers with a year ago,
    when the sunspot reading in 2021 Propagation Forecast Bulletin
    ARLP041 was only 30.7 and flux was 86.9. Solar Cycle 25 progression
    is better than predicted.

    October 9 saw a planetary A index reading of 25. On that day
    Spaceweather.com warned that sunspot AR3112 had a delta-class
    magnetic field with energy for strong solar flares.

    The next day they posted movies of two flares, seen here, https://bit.ly/3T82fQS and here, https://bit.ly/3evItjp .

    Predicted solar flux from USAF and NOAA shows values peaking during
    the first week in November at 160.

    The forecast shows flux values of 130, 120, 115 and 117 on October
    14-17, 120 on October 18-20, 130 and 138 on October 21-22, 140 on
    October 23-25, then 145, 145 and 150 on October 26-28, then 155, 155
    and 152 on October 29-31, 160 on November 1-8, then 150, 140 and 135
    on November 9-11, 130 on November 12-13, 135 on November 14, 138 on
    November 15-17, and 140 on November 18-21.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on October 14, 8 on October 15-16,
    5 on October 17-19, 12 on October 20-21, 5 on October 22-26, then
    12, 15, 12 and 20 on October 27-30, 15 on October 31 through
    November 1, then 18, 15 and 12 on November 2-4, 20 on November 5-6,
    then 8 and 12 on November 7-8, then 5, 5, 12 and 10 on November
    9-12, then 5 on November 13-15, 12 on November 16-17, and 5 on
    November 18-22.

    With increased solar activity and the progression into the Fall
    season, I am seeing improved conditions on 10 meters, including more
    beacon reports for my K7RA/B CW beacon on 28.2833 MHz.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:

    "A greater number of active regions on the Sun, and therefore higher
    total solar activity may be interesting for observers who are on the
    lookout for remarkable phenomena. Moreover, it will certainly please
    those radio amateurs who like to communicate on the shortest
    shortwave bands, but that's where the easy part of the prediction
    ends.

    "Along with more flares, we also saw more CMEs. More accurately: too
    many CMEs to make a forecast. The Sun was throwing several plasma
    clouds into space nearly every day. Many of the CMEs were weak, some overlapping and heading in different directions. The disturbances
    could occur at any time. Their irregular occurrence was observed
    between October 3 and 10. Only after that did the Earth's
    magnetosphere calm down.

    "The CME of 4 October apparently did not hit the Earth. It was not
    until the eruption in AR3112 on October 7 that it did. Therefore, we
    observed a G1-class geomagnetic storm on October 9. In addition, we
    observed eruptive activity that may have affected the Earth from the
    smaller AR3116.

    "All of this took place in the northwest quadrant of the solar disk,
    and as the active regions approached the western limb of the solar
    disk, the overall activity slowly decreased.

    "Some CMEs took us by surprise and caused unexpected disturbances,
    while other CMEs that should have hit Earth did not. We were pleased
    to note a quiet development since October 11 with solar activity
    still sufficiently high, contributed to improved shortwave
    propagation.

    "We now expect a gradual decrease in solar activity, but this will
    be replaced by an increase later in October."

    John, W2QL wrote:

    "I decoded HC2FG on 6m FT8, 50.315.143 on 8 October 2022 at 1526
    UTC, -18 dB.

    "My equipment was a MFJ 6m Moxon in 3rd floor bedroom, SDRPlay
    RSPDuo, QTH Fairfax, VA, FM18iu."

    Jon Jones, N0JK wrote:

    "Some odd F2 conditions October 8. First, 6 meters was open from the
    southeast U.S. to Ecuador in the morning around 1500 UTC. I was on
    6M portable with a 5 el Yagi, but nil in Kansas. To me it appeared
    to be F2.

    "10 meters was wide open to Europe. 9H1TT was 59+++ on SSB, as were
    3 stations in Lebanon on 28.647 MHz. No luck with the OD5 stations,
    but I worked EA7GAK, 9H1TT on SSB, and HA7TM on FT8 with 50 watts
    and a whip antenna 'fixed mobile' from my portable site in northeast
    Kansas.

    "Solar Cycle 25 appears to be ramping up!

    "Also worked IS0/OM2TW on SSB with 50 watts and vertical whip on
    car."

    Another of the many articles about the scary Carrington Event,
    although this is the first time I have seen the claim that the flare
    was so powerful, that telegraph messages could be sent through the
    aurora! 1859 was long before the invention of radio, and longer
    still before radio waves were observed propagating through the
    aurora:

    https://bit.ly/3CQEveO

    Does anyone know how to get rid of that annoying video pop-up? I
    cannot kill it.

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for October 6 through 12, 2022 were 139, 146, 137,
    114, 134, 72, and 62, with a mean of 114.9. 10.7 cm flux was 155.7,
    159.7, 157.2, 160.5, 163.2, 150.3, and 140.6, with a mean of 155.3.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 18, 15, 12, 25, 10, 7, and 6,
    with a mean of 13.3. Middle latitude A index was 14, 12, 10, 18, 8,
    7, and 4, with a mean of 10.4.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Sat Oct 22 11:26:33 2022
    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP042
    ARLP042 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP42
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 42 ARLP042
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA October 21, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP042
    ARLP042 Propagation de K7RA

    Sunspot activity took quite a plunge over this reporting week
    (October 13-19). Average daily sunspot numbers declined from 114.9
    to 57.3, while equivalent solar flux values went from 155.3 to
    119.6.

    Geomagnetic indicators were slightly lower, with average planetary A
    index going from 13.3 to 10.6, and middle latitude A index from 10.4
    to 8.1.

    A new sunspot group emerged on October 13, two more on October 15,
    another on October 16, one more on October 17, another on October 19
    and one more on October 20.

    I should note that the middle latitude A index for October 18-19 are
    my own estimates. The Fredericksburg, Virginia magnetometer was
    offline for a 24 hour period spanning both days.

    The Wednesday forecast of solar flux shows a peak at 160 during the
    first week in November.

    Predicted daily flux values are 115 on October 21-22, 120 on October
    23-27, 130 on October 28, 155 on October 29-30, 152 on October 31,
    160 on November 1-8, then 150, 140 and 135 on November 9-11, 130 on
    November 12-13, 135 on November 14, 138 on November 15-17, and 140
    on November 18-21, 145 on November 22-23, 150 on November 24, 155 on
    November 25-26, then 160 from the end of November through the first
    week in December.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on October 21-23, 12 on October 24,
    15 on October 25-26, then 12, 15, 12 and 20 on October 27-30, 15 on
    October 31 through November 1, then 18, 15, 12, 20, and 8 on
    November 2-6, 5 on November 7-9, 18 on November 10-11, then 15 and 8
    on November 12-13, 5 on November 14-15, 12 on November 16-17, 8 on
    November 18, and 5 on November 19-21, then 15, 12, 15, 12 and 20 on
    November 22-26, 15 on November 27-28, and 18 on November 29.

    Despite lower solar activity, worldwide 10 meter propagation seems
    strong this week, probably boosted by seasonal variations as we head
    deeper into the Fall season.

    Jon Jones, N0JK (EM28, Kansas) reports from last week:

    "A strong several hour F2 opening took place on 6 Meters October 14,
    2022. Stations in northern South America and the Caribbean were
    strong to the southeast states, Midwest, and eastern Seaboard.

    "From eastern Kansas, I logged HC2DR and PJ4MM on 6 Meters via FT8
    around 1950 UTC. I was running about 50 watts and a quarter wave
    whip on my car 'fixed mobile.'"

    "Signals were strong.

    "The Solar Flux was 141, K index 4."

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:

    "Solar activity gradually decreased as active regions fell behind
    the northwestern limb of the solar disk.

    "Earth's magnetic field was active to disturbed around October 15,
    when our planet was moving in a rapid stream of solar wind. A minor
    G1-class geomagnetic storm was registered on October 15.

    "In the following days, solar activity remained low, and the simple
    sunspot configuration indicated a low probability of flares.

    "It is only in a few days, after the coronal hole in the southeast
    of the solar disk crosses the central meridian, that the solar wind
    speed and the probability of geomagnetic disturbances will increase
    again.

    "We can expect a more pronounced increase in solar activity and more
    frequent opening of the shortest shortwave bands again, especially
    from the last days of October onward."

    The latest report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/4hmsd_FMWH4

    Angel Santana, WP3GW on October 17 wrote:

    "For a month now I've heard (and seen) much activity on 10 meters
    more than on any other band on weekends with countries that I've not
    heard for a while. On past weeks, have worked 7X, C3, and V51MA
    which is very active.

    "You can even hear SSTV signals on 28.680 MHz.

    "This past Sunday took time to work some stations from I, EA, T7,
    and ON. Then after 1730 UTC began calling on 28.550 MHz and work 22
    stations including PA, I, F, CX, W, CE, PY, EA8, and LU. All good
    signals. Plus, heard DL for the Work All Germany contest.

    "Some EA stations are heard well into the 2100 UTC which is like
    11pm their local time.

    "So, give it a try, this contest season looks very interesting, you
    may call this the 'Rise of Ten.'"

    Angel added that with his Yaesu FTDX10 he can see the activity
    across 10 meters.

    Bob, KB1DK writes:

    "I have been using the MUF map from the KC2G website since it was
    mentioned by N4KZ in your September 16th bulletin. It is very
    accurate and is now my go-to source to know what is actually
    happening propagation wise before I turn on the rig.

    "The auto refresh MUF map reflects the actual and changing band
    conditions. The map has been consistently 'spot on' during my first
    month of use. I highly recommend the website.

    "Over the past three weeks, both 10 and 12 meter SSB have been great
    from my Connecticut QTH. I worked many newcomers to 12 meters who
    were impressed with both the propagation and the minimal QRM.

    "The first two weeks in October was very busy on 10 meters. Weekends
    were like a contest, with solid activity between 28.300 and 28.600
    Signals were quite strong and many stations were heard here for
    several hours straight. While I was able to make SSB contacts to
    Saudi Arabia, Zambia, and Australia, I was not able to make contact
    with Japan. The signals from Japan were readable and they were
    working stations from the west coast."

    The site is, https://prop.kc2g.com .

    A new photo of a solar flare:

    https://bit.ly/3MMAbRb

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for October 13 through 19, 2022 were 57, 51, 50, 59,
    84, 50, and 50, with a mean of 114.9. 10.7 cm flux was 130, 120.5,
    115.1, 119.2, 125.6, 113.9, and 113.2, with a mean of 155.3.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 18, 18, 16, 6, 6, and 5, with
    a mean of 13.3. Middle latitude A index was 4, 16, 15, 11, 4, 4, and
    3, with a mean of 10.4.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Oct 28 12:25:45 2022
    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP043
    ARLP043 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP43
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 43 ARLP043
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA October 28, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP043
    ARLP043 Propagation de K7RA

    Sunspot activity seems listless. Average daily sunspot numbers went
    from 57.3 to 58.4 (see note at the end of the bulletin concerning
    last week's averages) while solar flux went from 119.6 to 113.2.

    On Thursday, the day after the reporting week ended, the sunspot
    number was 72, over 13 points above the previous 7 day average.
    Perhaps this is a promising sign.

    The middle latitude geomagnetic numbers this week are wrong. See
    what I mean:

    https://bit.ly/3W7nCnB

    I emailed a contact at NOAA about this, and here is the reply:

    "Mid lat numbers are absolutely NOT correct.

    "Fredericksburg magnetometer is undergoing maintenance this week and
    has been flaky. I've alerted the individual acting in my absence as
    well as our developers to see if we can get that cleaned up."

    So, the middle latitude numbers presented here at the end of the
    bulletin are my own very rough estimates, trying to correlate with
    the high latitude and planetary numbers. My NOAA contact emailed me
    the data from the Boulder magnetometer, which can be used in lieu of
    the Fredericksburg data, and he noted that my estimates were not far
    off.

    Here is what he sent me:

    A index (Boulder) 7, 4, 22, 13, 6, 5, 4 with a mean of 8.7
    A index (K7RA estimate) 5, 4, 24, 15, 7, 5, 4 with a mean of 9.1

    Average daily planetary A index went from 18.6 to 10.4, and middle
    latitude numbers from 8.1 to 9.1.

    Predicted solar flux is 125 on October 28 to November 3, 112 on
    November 4-5, 118 on November 6-9, 115 on November 10-12, 112 on
    November 13-14, 110 on November 15, 108 on November 16-18, 104 on
    November 19, 100 on November 20-23, 98 on November 24-25, 100 on
    November 26, then 105 on November 27-28, 110 on November 29, 112 on
    November 30 through December 2, and 118 on December 3-6.

    The rise in solar flux in the first week in November to 160
    presented in the previous two bulletins is gone from the current
    prediction. But this Thursday solar flux forecast is more optimistic
    for the near term than the Wednesday forecast in yesterday's ARRL
    Letter.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8, 18, 22, 15, 12, 10 and 8 on
    October 28 through November 3, 5 on November 4-9, then 18, 18 and 15
    on November 10-12, 5 on November 13-17, then 25, 18, 17 and 12 on
    November 18-21, 5 on November 22-23, then 8, 15 and 20 on November
    24-26, then 15, 15 and 12 on November 27-29, and 5 on November 30
    through December 6.

    From F. K. Janda, OK1HH:

    "Not much happened on the Sun over the past few days from the point
    of view of a terrestrial observer. Overall activity was low. Of
    note, the co-rotating interaction region (CIR) hit Earth's magnetic
    field on October 22, sparking a G1-class geomagnetic storm and
    bright auroras around the Arctic Circle.

    "Earth's magnetic field calmed down and active sunspot regions began
    to sink beyond the southwestern edge of the solar disk, while others
    emerged in the northeast.

    "Although helioseismic maps revealed interesting activity on the
    Sun's far side, this will likely end before it emerges on the
    eastern edge of the solar disk."

    Scott, N7KQ in Fort Meyers, Florida wrote:

    "I wish I had sent this earlier. I worked Japan twice lately on 10
    meters from Southwest Florida. Once on October 12th (JM7OLW) and on
    October 18th (JA1KIH) using an indoor dipole above the garage at 14
    feet. Both were weak but 100% copy. They both reported the same for
    my signal. These contacts were CW, and I run 500 watts."

    10 meters has been much better lately, and for Scott, working
    stations in Japan is more difficult than for me in Seattle, where we
    have always had a pipeline to Japan. His path length is about 7,000
    miles, while mine is only about 5000 miles, and I recall during past
    sunspot cycle peaks calling CQ running barefoot into a low dipole
    produced huge pileups of JA signals.

    My own 10 meter CW beacon (K7RA/B, 28.2833 MHz) has been getting
    more reports lately. A couple of listeners even mailed QSL cards.

    Thanks to Darrel, AA7FV for a tip that led me to a news item about a
    gamma ray burst.

    Be sure to visit Spaceweather.com and using the archives feature in
    the upper right corner, go to October 18 to read about the October 9
    gamma ray burst, and the amateur astronomer who detected it using an
    unusual VLF antenna.

    This burst of energy happened 2.4 billion years ago and took that
    long to reach us.

    Here is what stage Earth was in at that time:

    https://bit.ly/3znjztv

    More info on the event:

    https://bit.ly/3FwRZOi

    Here is a link to Darrel's own data, labeled Agua Caliente:

    https://stanford.io/3U5i0IU

    Did you know there is crowd sourced geomagnetic data, using smart
    phones? You can participate:

    https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/crowdmag-magnetic-data

    Here is a Forbes article on doomsday flares:

    https://bit.ly/3W8IJpy

    Some tabloid news on flares:

    https://bit.ly/3gLn1YL

    Something even worse than a Carrington Event?

    https://bit.ly/3zo5SdR

    In last week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP042 the averages
    were wrong.

    The correct averages for the numbers at the end of the bulletin in
    ARLP042 were 57.3, 119.6, 10.6 and 8.1 for sunspot number, solar
    flux, planetary A index and middle latitude A index respectively.
    The wrong numbers were actually from the previous week.

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for October 20 through 26, 2022 were 33, 60, 55, 65,
    46, 72, and 78, with a mean of 58.4. 10.7 cm flux was 115.8, 109.4,
    105, 108.4, 114.8, 116.3, and 122.4, with a mean of 113.2. Estimated
    planetary A indices were 7, 5, 27, 16, 8, 5, and 5, with a mean of
    10.4. Middle latitude A index was 5, 4, 24, 15, 7, 5, and 4, with a
    mean of 9.1.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Nov 4 10:30:09 2022
    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP044
    ARLP044 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP44
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 44 ARLP044
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA November 4, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP044
    ARLP044 Propagation de K7RA

    Solar activity perked up this week. Average daily sunspot number
    rose from 58.4 to 70.3, and solar flux averages increased from 113.3
    to 129.9.

    There are still problems with the Fredericksburg magnetometer, so I
    used numbers from the Boulder, Colorado magnetometer for the middle
    latitude A index.

    At 2318 UTC on November 3, 2022 the Australian Space Weather
    Forecasting Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning:

    "Increased geomagnetic activity expected due to coronal hole high
    speed wind stream from November 4-5."

    Planetary A index averages went from 19.4 to 13.7, and middle
    latitude numbers changed from 9.1 to 14.3.

    The solar flux prediction shows the highest values over the next
    week, starting with 130 on November 4, then 135 on November 5-6,
    then 130, 135, 130, and 125 on November 7-10, 115 on November 11-12,
    112 on November 13-14, 110 on November 15, 108 on November 16-18,
    104 on November 19, 100 on November 20-23, 98 on November 24-25,
    then 100, 105, 105 and 110 on November 26-29, then 112 on November
    30 through December 2, then 118 on December 3-6, 115 on December
    7-9, and 112 on December 10-11.

    Predicted planetary A index is 22. 30, 15, and 8 on November 4-7, 5
    on November 8-10, then 18 and 15 on November 11-12, 5 on November
    13-17, then 25, 15 and 8 on November 18-20, 5 on November 21-22,
    then 8, 15 and 25 on November 23-25, 15 on November 26-27, then 18,
    12, 10, 12, 20 and 15 on November 28 through December 3, then 5 on
    December 4-6, 18 on December 7-8, 15 on December 9, and 5 on
    December 10-14, and 25 on December 15.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:

    "The evolution of solar activity, the Earth's magnetic field and the
    state of the ionosphere in recent days has been varied, but not easy
    to describe in a concise way (which is my aim).

    "The reason for this is the variability of the evolution and the
    absence of energetically significant phenomena.

    "A week ago, there were five quiet sunspot groups on the Sun. None
    of them posed a threat of strong flares. All had stable magnetic
    fields that did not look like they would result in an eruption.

    "Then, on the far side of the Sun, a sunspot appeared so large that
    it changed the way the Sun vibrated.

    "Helioseismic maps revealed its acoustic echo several days beyond
    the Sun's northeastern edge. What mattered to us was that it was
    about to appear at the northeastern limb of the Sun's disk.

    "On October 26, we were delighted to see the Solar Dynamics
    Observatory (SOD) satellite, which is in geostationary orbit,
    studying the Sun's influence on planet Earth and the surrounding
    universe.

    "Most important for the forecast is the SDO/AIA image of coronal
    holes, which may alert us to the possibility of an ionospheric
    disturbance. We were cheered up by the fact that the Sun looks like
    a jolly smiley face or a Halloween pumpkin, seen on
    https://bit.ly/3fB1VvQ, just days before Halloween!

    "A cheerful image, created by coronal holes in the Sun's atmosphere,
    but mainly spewing a triple stream of solar wind toward Earth.

    "Solar wind data from NOAA's DSCOVR spacecraft indicated that a
    small, unexpected CME may have impacted Earth's magnetic field on
    October 28 around 1400 UTC. A G1-class geomagnetic storm followed
    after midnight UTC on October 29 after Earth entered the solar wind
    stream flowing from the merry hole in the solar atmosphere.

    "(The DSCOVR spacecraft is the Deep Space Climate Observatory. See https://bit.ly/3E2yWKV )

    "Further, there were only four sunspots on the Sun, all of which had
    stable magnetic fields that were unlikely to explode.

    "Another flare took place on November 1 on the far side of the Sun.
    The eruption hurled a CME into space. The blast site will flip to
    the Earth side of the Sun in about a week.

    "Watch for a larger coronal hole that has since moved to the Sun's
    western hemisphere. Minor G1-class geomagnetic storms may result on
    November 5, when a solar wind stream is expected to hit Earth's
    magnetic field. Which will definitely affect shortwave propagation
    conditions. Ideally, and with appropriate timing (daytime, ideally
    afternoon), a significant improvement in the positive phase of the
    disturbance could follow."

    Oleh, KD7WPJ of San Diego, California reported: "On November 1st I
    worked 3 Japanese stations on 10 m CW at 2238-2248 UTC from
    Dictionary Hill (SOTA W6/SC-366) in San Diego, CA. I used 40 watts
    and a homemade vertical with 4 radials."

    Solar blasts in the news:

    https://bit.ly/3NxbY1v

    A Jack-o-Lantern Sun:

    https://www.popsci.com/science/nasa-smile-sun/

    News about radio blackouts!

    https://bit.ly/3fzEi6W

    A smiley Sun:

    https://bit.ly/3UmMRRd

    New videos from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW.

    https://youtu.be/gO0wP6eiS8I

    Part 3 of her mini-course:

    https://youtu.be/-X-zE44x5Fk

    This weekend is the ARRL CW Sweepstakes Contest, in which you work
    domestic stations, and unlike ARRL Field Day, you do get multipliers
    for sections worked. See https://www.arrl.org/sweepstakes for
    details.

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for October 27 through November 2, 2022 were 72, 87,
    97, 68, 56, 63, and 49, with a mean of 70.3. 10.7 cm flux was 129.7,
    129.3, 133.9, 130.5, 127.9, 128.1, and 129.7, with a mean of 129.9.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 16, 26, 12, 11, 8, and 14,
    with a mean of 13.7. Middle latitude A index was 6, 15, 24, 14, 12,
    6, and 11, with a mean of 12.6.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Mon Nov 14 14:44:13 2022
    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP045
    ARLP045 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP45
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 45 ARLP045
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA November 14, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP045
    ARLP045 Propagation de K7RA

    ARRL headquarters was closed on Friday, November 11, so this
    bulletin is delayed until Monday, but edited and updated Sunday
    night.

    Two new sunspots appeared November 1, one more November 3, two more
    November 4, one more and then another on November 6 and 7, another
    on November 9 and again on November 10, and one more on November 13.
    But sunspot numbers and solar flux seem modest lately, and so are
    the solar flux forecasts.

    Average daily sunspot numbers rose this week, from 70.3 to 78.9, yet
    somehow the solar flux averages stayed the same, 129.9 and 129.9.
    Our reporting week is Thursday through Wednesday, and in the four
    days since, the average rose to 137.9.

    Average daily planetary A index went from 13.7 to 13.4, but the
    middle latitude numbers changed from 14.3 to 9.6.

    Predicted solar flux is 135 on November 14-15, 120 and 110 on
    November 16-17, 105 on November 18-19, then 110, 114, 112 and 114
    on November 20-23, 116 on November 24-26, 118 on November 27-28,
    then 120, 122, 125, 124 and 122 on November 29 through December 3,
    130 on December 4-5, then 125 and 120 on December 6-7, 115 on
    December 8-9, then 120, 118, 116, 115 and 114 on December 10-14, 116
    on December 15-16, 114 on December 17-18, then 112 and 114 on
    December 19-20, and 116 on December 21-23.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on November 14, 10 on November
    15-16, 5 on November 17-19, 15 on November 20, 5 on November 21-22,
    then 8, 16, 26, 15 and 12 on November 23-27, then 8, 15, 26, 16 and
    12 on November 28 through December 2, then 8 on December 3-4, 12 on
    December 5-8, 8 on December 9, then 5 on December 10-14, then 25, 15
    and 8 on December 15-17, 5 on December 18-19, then 8, 26 and 15 on
    December 20-22.

    Angel Santana, WP3GW, wrote:

    "10 meters is getting so better, that today on November 9 at 1319
    UTC had a contact with 3B9FR on 28.522 MHz up 5. He even answered me
    in Spanish."

    That is Rodrigues Island, in the Indian Ocean, more than 9000 miles
    from Puerto Rico.

    More on Rodrigues Island:

    https://bbc.in/3El5MGS

    A new video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/tkpwp_oUMnQ

    Solar flares and radio blackouts:

    https://bit.ly/3EkBFzu

    https://bit.ly/3hkvke8

    Paul, K2PMD, asked:

    "I am a relatively new ham, so please forgive me if this is a dumb
    question. Generally speaking, I understand that a high K index makes
    radio communication more difficult. Why is the K index not included
    in the weekly propagation report?"

    My response:

    "The reason is, there are too many of them. Instead, geomagnetic
    indicators are summarized using the A index.

    "If we listed all the K indices for both middle-latitude and
    planetary, there would be 112 numbers to report.

    "K index is quasi-logarithmic, while A index is linear.

    "The A index for any day is calculated from the 8 daily K indices.

    "https://bit.ly/3zLPLXW

    "I've been using this resource more and more lately, when I want to
    check for possible geomagnetic disturbances in real time:

    "https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index

    "Notice that the numbers are fractional, and it is easy to spot
    trends in real time. K index is always expressed in whole numbers,
    but because these are planetary numbers from many magnetometers, you
    get a finer resolution."

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for November 3 through 9, 2022 were 65, 81, 82, 78,
    80, 85, and 81, with a mean of 78.8. 10.7 cm flux was 125.3, 117.7,
    131.1, 130.8, 134.6, 132.3, and 137.6, with a mean of 129.9.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 26, 16, 10, 4, 19, 12, and 7,
    with a mean of 13.4. Middle latitude A index was 16, 12, 8, 3, 12,
    8, and 8, with a mean of 9.6.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Mon Nov 28 12:30:15 2022

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP047
    ARLP047 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP47
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 47 ARLP047
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA November 28, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP047
    ARLP047 Propagation de K7RA

    ARRL headquarters was closed for the holiday last Thursday and
    Friday, so this bulletin is delayed until Monday, but has fresh
    content from Sunday night.

    At 2228 UTC on November 27 the Australian Space Weather Forecasting
    Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning: "A coronal hole
    wind stream is expected to induce G1 periods of geomagnetic activity
    from mid 30-Nov to 01-Dec."

    Solar activity softened over the past reporting week, November
    17-23. Average daily sunspot numbers dropped from 72.3 to 66, and
    average daily solar flux from 137.2 to 116.5.

    In the four days since the end of the reporting week the average
    daily solar flux sunk to 106. But we look forward to rising solar
    flux, peaking at 135 on December 12 and again on January 8.

    In 2021 Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP047 the average daily
    sunspot number was only 30.9, and solar flux was 80.8, so we can see
    Solar Cycle 25 is progressing nicely.

    Average daily planetary A index rose slightly from 4.4 to 5.1, and
    middle latitude numbers declined from 3.9 to 3.4.

    Two new sunspot groups emerged on November 16, one more on November
    17 and another on November 18. Two more appeared, the first on
    November 21 and the second on November 23. No new sunspots appeared
    in the following four days. The peak sunspot number was 83 on
    November 21.

    Predicted solar flux is 105 and 110 on November 28-29, 115 on
    November 30 through December 3, 120 on December 4, 125 on December
    5-10, then 130, 135 and 130 on December 11-13, 125 on December
    14-17, 120 on December 18, 125 on December 19-24, and 120 on
    December 25-31, then 125 on January 1-6, 2023 then 130 and 135 on
    January 7-8.

    Predicted planetary A index is 10, 15 and 18 on November 28-30, then
    10, 18 and 10 on December 1-3, 5 on December 4-7, 8 on December 8-9,
    5 on December 10-16, then 10, 26, 15 and 8 on December 17-20, then
    10, 15, 8 and 10 on December 21-24, 8 on December 25-27, then 12, 18
    and 8 on December 28-30, and 5 on December 31 through January 3,
    2023, then 8 on January 4-5.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote on November 24:

    "Over the past seven days, I have been reminded again of the Woody
    Allen quote, 'If you want to make God laugh, tell him about your
    plans.'

    "At first, the authors of the forecasts of the Earth's magnetic
    field activity (including Tomas Bayer of the Budkov Geomagnetic
    Observatory) predicted an increase to the level of a disturbance on
    November 17. After that, most of the authors already agreed on
    November 19. In the following days, the forecasts were pushed
    forward, finally to 21-22 November. And was there anything? Nothing!

    "Solar activity dropped slightly. The geomagnetic field was quiet
    except for November 18 and 21. The development of shortwave
    propagation was erratic, but not bad, with improvements on November
    17, 19 and 24.

    "For forecasting, we can sometimes use observations obtained using a
    technique called helioseismology. Its map of the Sun's far side on
    November 22nd showed a huge active region. The corresponding
    heliographic longitude will appear at the eastern limb of the solar
    disk in about 10 days. After that, we expect an increase in activity
    and, of course, an improvement in shortwave propagation."

    Occasionally I see a solar report in overseas tabloids that makes me
    laugh out loud, or LOL as they say.

    Here is one. I love the part that says our Sun is the largest star
    in our solar system. No kidding! Normal solar activity becomes an
    existential threat.

    https://bit.ly/3EK9R6o

    That was published on November 25, and no doomsday yet.

    More dire warnings from the same source:

    https://bit.ly/3uc0uYd

    This one is pretty deep, but is about real science:

    https://bit.ly/3ODAKxs

    I haven't seen a new video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, but you
    can check our Space Weather Woman's YouTube videos at https://www.youtube.com/user/SpWxfx .

    Jon Jones, N0JK writes from Kansas:

    "There was an extensive and unexpected sporadic-E opening November
    19 early in the morning. I noted stations on Es about an hour after
    local sunrise here in Kansas.

    "I logged stations in W3 and W4 on 6 Meters on FT8. Signals were
    good at times, the opening lasted here until about 1700 UTC.

    "Sunspot AR3150 produced a M1-class solar flare at 1256 UTC. A
    strong pulse of extreme UV radiation from the flare ionized Earth's
    upper atmosphere. The sporadic-E appeared around 30 minutes later.
    Perhaps this helped spark the Es? This has been the only significant
    sporadic-E opening on 50 MHz so far in November, 2022.

    "The opening was fortuitous. Larry Lambert, N0LL was operating
    portable from rare grid DN90. He made many 6 meter contacts on
    sporadic-E.

    "The ARRL Phone Sweepstakes was on and sporadic-E may have helped
    contestants make contacts on 20, 15 and 10 meters.

    "Today (November 27, 2022) I got on 10 meters Sunday afternoon of
    the CQ World Wide DX CW contest. Stations in Hawaii were very loud
    at 2240 UTC. I logged 4 Hawaiians in 6 minutes running just 5 watts
    and a magnet mount whip on a BBQ grill. 10 can be amazing at times."

    N0JK writes the monthly VHF column, "The World Above 50 MHz" in QST.

    Danny, K7SS reported on the Western Washington DX Club email
    reflector that he worked single band 15 meters in the CQ World Wide
    DX CW contest. "Great to have 15 open again. Not quite at its peak,
    and never had a good opening to EU, except for OH, SM, and LA over
    the top both days.

    "Most EU worked scatter path to the E/SE. Thank goodness for Asia
    action! Lots of JA, BY, and YB folks."

    Danny lives in Seattle, where I live, and we have always had an
    amazing pipeline to Japan.

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for November 17 through 23, 2022 were 64, 55, 59,
    72, 83, 61, and 68, with a mean of 66. 10.7 cm flux was 119.2, 116,
    115.1, 119.1, 117, 115.7, and 113.3, with a mean of 116.5. Estimated
    planetary A indices were 2, 7, 5, 6, 10, 3, and 3, with a mean of
    5.1. Middle latitude A index was 1, 5, 4, 3, 8, 2, and 1, with a
    mean of 3.4.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Dec 2 17:48:47 2022

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP048
    ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP48
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 48 ARLP048
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA December 2, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP048
    ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA

    No new sunspots appeared over the past reporting week, November 24
    to 30. But sunspots were visible every day. Then on December 1
    three new sunspot groups emerged. The sunspot number rose from 12
    to 49 and the total sunspot area went from 10 to 330.

    Sunspot numbers and solar flux declined during this reporting week
    (November 24 to 30), with average daily Sunspot number dropping from
    66 to 46, and average daily solar flux from 116.5 to 108.3.

    Solar wind streams from coronal holes kept geomagnetic indicators
    active, with average daily planetary A index jumping from 5.1 to
    18.6, and middle latitude A index from 3.4 to 14.

    On Wednesday, November 30 the magnetometer at Fairbanks, Alaska
    showed the college A index at 54, the highest value over the past
    month. No doubt this produced aurora. The next day the disturbance
    continued, with collage A index at 51. These are very large
    numbers.

    The current prediction from Thursday night has solar flux reaching a
    peak of 130 this weekend, rather than 135 recently predicted. This
    is much earlier than the prediction in yesterday's ARRL Letter. We
    might also see solar flux below 100 around December 24.

    Look for flux values of 120 and 124 on December 2 and 3, 130 on
    December 4 and 5, 125 on December 6 and 7, then 120, 125, 125, 130,
    115 and 110 on December 8 to 13, 105 on December 14 to 17, 100 on
    December 18 to 23, then 95, 105 and 110 on December 24 to 26, 115 on
    December 27 to 30, and 120 on December 31, then 125 on January 1 to
    6, 2023.

    The planetary A index prediction is 20, 10, 18 and 12 on December 2
    to 5, 5 on December 6 and 7, 10 and 8 on December 8 and 9, 5 on
    December 10 to 16, 10 on December 17 and 18, 5 on December 19 to 21,
    then 20, 15, 12, and 10 on December 22 to 25, then 15, 18, 10, 18
    and 10 on December 26 to 30, 5 on December 31 through January 3,
    2023, 8 on January 4 and 5, and 5 on January 6 to 12.

    OK1HH wrote:

    "The course of solar and geomagnetic activity and therefore the
    course of shortwave propagation in the last seven days differed
    significantly from the week before.

    The solar wind speed has increased significantly (from 300 km/s to a fluctuation between 700 and 800 km/s) and the activity of Earth's
    magnetic field mostly increased.

    The changes began on 25 November at 0230 UTC when a shock wave in
    the solar wind hit the Earth. In the ionosphere we could first
    observe an increase in MUF. Further development of the disturbance
    continued only by further irregular deterioration of shortwave
    propagation.

    Enhanced solar flaring activity, including Coronal Mass Ejections
    (CMEs), did give rise to predictions of higher geomagnetic activity,
    but without the possibility of more precise timing.

    On December 1, a new larger sunspot group appeared over the
    southeastern limb of the Sun. So solar activity will not drop, but
    will probably rise again over the next few days.

    Shortwave propagation should therefore no longer deteriorate, rather
    the shortest shortwave bands will gradually open up a little better.
    In the northern hemisphere of the Earth, however, the opening
    intervals will be shorter than in recent weeks."

    Research: "Iterative Construction of the Optimal Sunspot-Number
    Series"

    https://bit.ly/3VLbTtX

    This one is spreading fast, all about hams in Montana on PBS:

    https://www.montanapbs.org/programs/ham/

    Thanks to K7SS and N7SO for the above.

    Solar wind news:

    https://bit.ly/3EVkeUW

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net .

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for November 24 through 30, 2022 were 61, 55, 60,
    56, 52, 25, and 12, with a mean of 46. 10.7 cm flux was 109.7,
    108.5, 107.1, 107.2, 107, 107.9, and 111, with a mean of 108.3.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 20, 16, 15, 24, 25, and 24,
    with a mean of 18.6. Middle latitude A index was 6, 15, 12, 10, 18,
    20, and 17, with a mean of 14.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Dec 9 18:17:51 2022

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP049
    ARLP049 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP49
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 49 ARLP049
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA December 9, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP049
    ARLP049 Propagation de K7RA

    Solar activity bounced back in our reporting week, December 1 to 7.
    With solar flux and sunspot numbers dramatically higher and
    geomagnetic activity lower, what could be better? Well, even more
    sunspots, I guess. But this sunspot cycle is already progressing
    better than the prediction consensus, so I am grateful.

    Average daily sunspot numbers increased from 46 to 85, while average
    daily solar flux rose from 108.3 to 137.5.

    How do these numbers compare with a year ago? The week of December
    2 to 8, 2021 had an average daily sunspot number of 24.6 and solar
    flux at 82.6.

    Average daily planetary A index dropped from 18.6 to 14.4, while
    middle latitude numbers declined from 14 to 9.1.

    Predicted solar flux for the next few days is 140 on December 9 to
    11, then 130, and 125 on December 12 and 13, 120 on December 14 and
    15, 110 on December 16 to 19, 115 on December 20 to 22, 120 on
    December 23 to 28, then 125, 130 and 135 on December 29 to 31, then
    140 on January 1 to 6, 2023, then 135 on January 8, 125 on January 9
    and 10, 115 on January 11, and 110 on January 12 to 15.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8 on December 9 and 10, 5 on
    December 11 to 16, 10 on December 17 and 18, 5 on December 19 to 21,
    then 20, 15 and 12 on December 22 to 24, 20 on December 25 to 28,
    then 12, 10, 12 and 8 on December 29 through January 1, 2023, then
    5, 12, 15 and 8 on January 2 to 5, and 5 on January 6 to 12, then 10
    on January 13 and 14, and 5 on January 15 to 17.

    Don't forget the ARRL 10 meter contest this weekend.

    https://www.arrl.org/10-meter

    In North America, that starts on Friday evening, and the latest
    prediction shows a promising high solar flux with low geomagnetic
    numbers, ideal conditions.

    F.K Janda, OK1HH wrote:

    "This week, no dramatic events - no large proton eruptions, and the fluctuations of the solar wind did not deviate from the limits we
    have become accustomed to this year. The most prominent feature was
    the canyon-shaped coronal hole, which paraded from the eastern to
    the western half of the solar disk.

    But its surroundings were changing, especially at its northern end.
    From there, the HSS (high-speed solar wind) probably began to flow
    from there on December 7th, reaching Earth and finally triggering a
    geomagnetic disturbance on the afternoon of the same day.

    Before the aforementioned coronal hole sinks behind the western edge
    of the solar disk in a few days, we can still expect an increase in
    the activity of the Earth's magnetic field and irregular changes in
    the ionosphere.

    Don't expect more accurate predictions.

    A decrease in solar activity will follow, and the decrease in solar
    radiation will add up in the ionosphere to the shortening of the
    day. Only with a delay of several days will propagation improve in
    the longer part of the short wave band."

    Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW wrote:

    "On Wednesday, December 7, 2022, between 1429 and 1432 UTC I
    received the United Kingdom, G9PUC in grid square JO00au calling CQ
    using digital mode FT8 on the experimental 8-meter (40 MHz) band via
    F2 propagation. Distance was 3541 miles, with an azimuth of 050
    degrees.

    The 8-meter experimental band is within the worldwide Industrial-Scientific-Medical (ISM) segment between 40.66-40.7 MHz
    with a 40 kHz bandwidth, center frequency on 40.680. Licensed users
    are the Fixed, Mobile and Earth exploration- satellite service.

    G9PUV resides in Iford, England and has an Innovation Trial
    license from Ofcom to conduct research on 8 meters for 12 months,
    starting April 1, 2022.

    Paul uses an Icom IC-706 rig into a W4KMA Log Periodic antenna
    (custom 18-100 MHz) at 49 feet AGL at 30 watts.

    The noon 10.7cm Radio Flux was 148 sfu. The Estimated Planetary K
    index (3 hour data) 12-15 UTC ramped up to a Kp index of 5.

    I was using the JTDX v2.2.149-32A suite. The Band Activity window
    displayed the following eight decodes.

    142915 -14 0.3 526 CQ G9PUV JO00
    142945 -5 0.3 526 CQ G9PUV JO00
    143015 -4 0.3 526 CQ G9PUV JO00
    143045 -10 0.3 526 CQ G9PUV JO00
    143115 -6 0.3 525 CQ G9PUV JO00
    143145 -9 0.3 525 CQ G9PUV JO00
    143215 -16 0.3 524 CQ G9PUV JO00
    143245 -11 0.3 524 CQ G9PUV JO00

    Less than one hour later, I decoded Ireland, EI2IP in grid square
    IO52 calling CQ using digital mode FT8 via F2. He decoded
    twenty-two times.

    Distance was 3151 miles, with an azimuth of 050 degrees.

    EI2IP resides in Limerick, Ireland. (EI) radio amateurs are
    authorized to transmit on this band without a Test Trial license
    from ComReg.

    The Band Activity window displayed the following decodes.

    152300 -14 0.6 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52
    152600 -18 0.4 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52
    152630 -13 0.5 1464 CQ EI2IP IO52
    152700 -19 0.5 1464 CQ EI2IP IO52
    152730 -12 0.5 1464 CQ EI2IP IO52
    152800 -22 0.4 1464 CQ EI2IP IO52
    152830 -14 0.4 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52
    152900 -11 0.5 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52
    152930 -15 0.5 1467 CQ EI2IP IO52
    153000 -21 0.5 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52
    153530 -15 0.5 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52
    153600 -18 0.5 1464 CQ EI2IP IO52
    153630 -20 0.6 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52
    153700 -19 0.6 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52
    153800 -14 0.5 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52
    153830 -13 0.4 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52
    153900 -20 0.6 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52
    153930 -18 0.6 1467 CQ EI2IP IO52
    154000 -16 0.5 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52
    154030 -20 0.5 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52
    154100 -16 0.5 1467 CQ EI2IP IO52
    155700 -20 0.5 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52"

    Thanks to Howard, N7SO for this link:

    https://www.youtube.com/SVAstronomyLectures

    Solar physics:

    https://bit.ly/3Ybi38y

    Dr. Tamitha Skov's tutorial on the ionosphere, 2 years ago:

    https://youtu.be/zUXBeYHTsUk

    WX6SWW Current video:

    https://youtu.be/eAbskTOybvE

    Newsweek sunspot report:

    https://bit.ly/3BlnPuS

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for December 1 through 7, 2022 were 49, 66, 68, 93,
    89, 123, and 107, with a mean of 85. 10.7 cm flux was 118.7, 124,
    133.8, 143,7, 149.8, 144.2, and 148, with a mean of 137.5. Estimated
    planetary A indices were 28, 16, 10, 17, 8, 4, and 18, with a mean
    of 14.4. Middle latitude A index was 18, 11, 7, 10, 7, 2, and 9,
    with a mean of 9.1.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Dec 23 10:41:57 2022

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP051
    ARLP051 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP51
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 51 ARLP051
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA December 23, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP051
    ARLP051 Propagation de K7RA

    I am writing this first draft of my penultimate bulletin of 2022,
    about seven hours after the start of Winter Solstice in the Northern Hemisphere, which was on Wednesday, December 21, 2022 at 2147 UTC.
    It is very cold in Seattle, about 17 degrees F on the longest night
    of the year.

    Solar activity was down a bit from the previous week, although it
    was one of those odd occasions when average daily sunspot numbers
    and solar flux changed in opposite directions.

    Average daily sunspot number declined from 136.9 to 124.1, while
    solar flux rose from 150 to 153.8.

    Two new sunspot groups emerged on December 17, one more on December
    19, another on December 21, and two more on December 22.

    Geomagnetic indicators were a bit lower, with average planetary A
    index changing from 7.7 to 6.7, and middle latitude numbers from 6
    to 5.1.

    Due to missing data, I had to fudge one of the numbers, the December
    16 middle latitude A index which I pegged at 7 by eyeballing trends.

    Predicted solar flux appears to reach a short term peak of 160 on
    January 4-7, 2023, which may repeat on the last day of January and
    the first few days in February.

    The forecast shows 130 on December 23-25, 135 on December 26–30,
    138 on December 31, then 140, 150 and 155 on January 1-3, 2023, 160
    on January 4-7, then 158, 156, 154, 154 and 152 on January 8-12, 150
    on January 13-15, then 145, 130 and 120 on January 16-18, 118 on
    January 19-20, then 120, 125 and 127 on January 21-23, 130 on
    January 24-25, then 135, 138, 140, 150 and 155 on January 26, and
    160 on January 31 through the first few days of February.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8, 5 and 8 on December 23-25, 5 on
    December 26-29, 10 and 12 on December 30-31, then 8, 5 and 18 on
    January 1-3, 2023, 10 on January 4-5, then 8, 10 and 6 on January
    6-8, 5 on January 9-14, then 12, 10 and 20 on January 15-17, then
    12, 8, 5 and 18 on January 18-21, and 20 on January 22-24, then 12,
    10, 12, 8 and 5 on January 25-29.

    OK1HH writes:

    "Over the past seven days, we observed up to seven sunspot groups on
    the solar disk, three in succession had sizes and configurations
    suggesting the possibility of an M-class flare.

    "AR3165 fell behind the western limb on December 17, while we
    observed AR3169 the same day. The largest AR3163 went over the limb
    on December 22. Solar activity, both total and flare activity,
    slowly decreased.

    "A shock wave (probably the CME released by sunspot AR3165 last
    week) hit Earth's magnetic field late on December 18, but a
    geomagnetic storm did not develop, only a slight increase in
    geomagnetic activity. This was repeated on December 21 and
    especially the next day, when it was a recurrent disturbance,
    repeated after about 27 days.

    "Solar activity is likely to remain low until Christmas. The
    situation may change next week, when one or more active sunspot
    groups will appear on the eastern limb of the solar disk.

    "Shortwave propagation was mostly above average with slightly
    elevated MUF values. Diurnal variations were erratic. This pattern
    will continue."

    Jon, N0JK wrote:

    "A strong sporadic-E opening on 50 MHz from Kansas to the Gulf Coast
    Sunday December 18.

    "I logged K3FM EM50, WA3GWK EM60, W5THT EM50, and N4UPX EM50 on
    50.313 MHz FT8 around 1600 UTC with strong signals. My station was
    100 watts and an attic dipole."

    More big solar flare news:

    https://bit.ly/3YHi5Wf

    https://bit.ly/3PKXts4

    https://bit.ly/3HXk1DW

    https://bit.ly/3FPgipw

    Found this interesting resource in the ARRL Letter:

    https://haarp.gi.alaska.edu/diagnostic-suite

    From Dr. Tony Phillips on cycles:

    https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2022/12/

    On Thursday using remotehamradio.com I made a 10 meter contact with
    Ralph, VE3LOE. He sent me an email, which I have edited:

    "About 2 years ago I was in touch with Scott McIntosh at the
    National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, CO, who made a minority-opinion propagation forecast for Solar Cycle 25 which
    suggests much higher solar activity than what his colleagues
    predict. See 'Overlapping Magnetic Activity Cycles and the Sunspot
    Number: Forecasting Sunspot Cycle 25 Amplitude' (text dated October
    2020).

    "The latest installment, entitled 'Deciphering Solar Magnetic
    Activity: The (Solar) Hale Cycle Terminator of 2021,' which is at:

    "https://arxiv.org/a/mcintosh_s_1.html

    "I scanned this latter paper just now. Although I am a retired
    engineer from the telecom sector with a PhD in statistical traffic
    analysis of pre-Internet data networks, and understand the
    statistical math used in these papers, I am not a propagation
    expert. However, in the last publication, Figure 10 predicts a mean
    SSN just under 200, higher than other expert predictions. This
    present cycle has been interesting in its statistical variability.

    "I am primarily a 10m enthusiast and use this band on a daily basis,
    generally in the 1300-1700 UTC timeframe when the EU openings take
    place. For some of my other ham interests and operating conditions
    you can visit my QRZ.com page."

    K7RA notes - download this pdf:

    https://arxiv.org/pdf/2209.10577.pdf

    A new report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/pU6i_2FVR2g

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for December 15 through 21, 2022 were 140, 108, 139,
    128, 132, 119, and 103, with a mean of 124.1. 10.7 cm flux was
    165.9, 163.1, 154.6, 155,6, 152.4, 146.4, and 138.7, with a mean of
    153.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 9, 3, 4, 11, 6, and 9,
    with a mean of 6.7. Middle latitude A index was 4, 7, 2, 2, 9, 5,
    and 7, with a mean of 5.1.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Dec 30 08:34:04 2022

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP052
    ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP52
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 52 ARLP052
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA December 30, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP052
    ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA

    This reporting week (December 22-28) saw declining solar numbers and
    rising geomagnetic indicators. Average daily sunspot numbers dropped
    from 124.1 to 96.1, and solar flux from 153.8 to 143.8. Average
    planetary A index rose from 6.7 to 17.3, and middle latitude numbers
    from 5.1 to 12.6.

    Predicted solar flux is 164 and 162 on December 30-31, 160 January
    1-3, 2023, 158 on January 4, 156 on January 5-6, 140 on January 7-8,
    136 on January 9, 130 on January 10-14, then 128 and 125 on January
    15-16, 120 on January 17-20, then 125, 135, 136, 138, 132, 134 and
    132 on January 21-27, 130 on January 28-29, 135 on January 30, and
    140 on January 31 through February 4.

    Predicted planetary A index is 16, 14, 10 and 8 on December 30, 2022
    through January 2, 2023, 5 and 14 on January 3-4, then 18, 18 and 10
    on January 5-7, 5 on January 8-16, then 8, 12, 25 and 20 on January
    17-20, 10 on January 21-22, then 20, 15, 10, 15 and 12 on January
    23-27, and 10, 5 and 18 on January 28-30, then then 10, 10, 8 and 10
    on January 31 through February 3, and a nice quiet 5 beyond that,
    perhaps until mid-February.

    The observatory at Penticton, British Columbia is the source for our
    solar flux numbers, and the staff leaves annually from Christmas to
    New Years. The system is automated, and we get the daily noon
    readings from this source:

    https://bit.ly/3hWlhN1

    Unfortunately, the system crashed on December 24 and no readings
    were posted after Christmas Eve.

    Thanks to Dr. Andrew Gray, Research Council Officer at the Dominion
    Radio Astrophysical Observatory for monitoring his email while on
    holiday and supplying us with the four days of missing data.

    From Thomas Bayer, RWC Prague at the Budkov Observatory:

    "Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period December 30 - January
    05, 2023.

    "Quiet: Dec 30, Jan 2-3
    Unsettled: Dec 30-31, Jan 3-5
    Active: Dec 31-Jan 1, Jan 3-5
    Minor storm: Jan 3-4
    Major storm: 0
    Severe storm: 0

    "We expect a transitional geomagnetic activity decrease during the
    coming two days. Then, about New Year, we expect partial geomagnetic
    activity enhancement again with a possible active event.

    "The other active/minor storm event is expected about January 3 - 4
    in connection with coronal hole 60/-3.

    "Between these events, we expect quiet to unsettled conditions
    generally."

    From F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

    "Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere December 30 - January 05, 2023.

    "A week ago it seemed that the relatively low solar activity would
    remain so until Christmas. All observable sunspot groups had
    relatively stable magnetic fields, not enough to generate major
    flares.

    At the same time, a series of geomagnetically disturbed days
    continued until 27 December, with highly variable and
    difficult-to-predict evolution of ionospheric shortwave propagation.
    Average days were irregularly interspersed with above-average ones.

    "From December 25, sunspot group AR3169 suddenly began to increase.
    Trailing behind it is AR3171, and both are now approaching the
    western edge of the solar disk.

    "The CME observed on Christmas Eve after a magnetic filament
    explosion, likely partially impacted Earth and contributed to the
    slow decline in solar wind speed during the third decade (ten day
    period) of December.

    "According to NOAA forecasts, there is a possibility of G1 class
    geomagnetic storms on December 30-31, when the Earth's magnetic
    field is likely to hit the Co-rotating Interaction Region (CIR). We
    expect increased geomagnetic activity and auroras at higher
    latitudes again.

    "Thanks to helioseismology, we know of three active regions on the
    far side of the Sun. They are large enough to last until their
    heliographic longitudes reach the eastern limb of the solar disk.
    Therefore, total solar activity should not drop much anytime soon."

    Another over-the-top article describing flares as existential
    threats.

    https://bit.ly/3Wy8BuZ

    Unusual solar events:

    https://bit.ly/3hTQiS0

    Big 2022 solar news:

    https://www.livescience.com/solar-storm-stories-2022

    A New Year's forecast from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, our Space
    Weather Woman:

    https://youtu.be/XYIxYsQ2SUk

    Don't forget, New Year's Eve (in North America) and New Year's Day
    is Straight Key Night:

    http://www.arrl.org/straight-key-night

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for December 22 through 28, 2022 were 108, 100, 85,
    107, 96, 89, and 88, with a mean of 96.1. 10.7 cm flux was 131.3,
    127.7, 133.3, 144, 150.5, 159, and 160.4, with a mean of 143.8.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 12, 24, 23, 10, 22, 25, and 5,
    with a mean of 17.3. Middle latitude A index was 7, 19, 15, 8, 19,
    16, and 4, with a mean of 12.6.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Feb 3 08:23:37 2023

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP005
    ARLP005 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP05
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 5 ARLP005
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA February 3, 2023
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP005
    ARLP005 Propagation de K7RA

    Solar activity softened again this week, with average daily sunspot
    numbers changing from 162 to 80.7, and solar flux from 198.9 to
    139.5.

    This is quite a dramatic shift from the excitement of a couple of
    weeks ago. To review, average weekly sunspot numbers from the first
    Propagation Forecast bulletin of 2023 went from 97 to 135.9, 173.4
    and 162. Average weekly solar flux from 157.8 to 181.2, 221.8 and
    198.9.

    This variability is expected. Soon, perhaps in the next solar
    rotation, activity will rise again. The graphs we see of smoothed
    sunspot numbers are smooth because the numbers are averaged over a
    whole year.

    Geomagnetic numbers barely changed at all, with planetary A index
    shifting only from 8.1 to 7.9 and the middle latitude numbers did
    not change at all, 5.9 last week and 5.9 this week.

    Predicted solar flux is 135 on February 3, 140 on February 4-5, 145
    on February 6, 150 on February 7-9, 155 on February 10-13, 150 on
    February 14-16, 145 on February 17, 140 on February 18-19, 135 on
    February 20, 130 on February 21-23, 125 on February 24-25, 140 on
    February 26-27, 135 on February 28 through March 4, then 140 and 145
    on March 5-6, 150 on March 7-8. and 155 on March 9-12.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8, 5 and 5 on February 3-5, 10 on
    February 6-7, 8 on February 8-9, then 12, 5, 8 and 8 on February
    10-13, 5 on February 14-17, then 8, 7, 5 and 5 on February 18-21, 10
    on February 22-24, 5 on February 25-27, then 15, 10 and 8 on
    February 28 to March 2, and 5 on March 3-5, then 15 on March 6-8,
    then 12, 8 and 7 on March 9-11 and 5 on March 12-16.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere February 3-9, 2023 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

    "January this year was another surprise in the development of Solar
    Cycle 25, although we are still about two years away from its peak.
    Sunspots have grown larger, while the configuration of the magnetic
    fields that make them up has become increasingly complex, leading to
    an increase in the number and intensity of eruptions, so far only
    moderately powerful.

    "Solar flux between 12 and 21 January was above 200, while the solar
    wind increased.

    "In the last week, after the large sunspot groups AR3190 and AR3192
    fell behind the western limb of the solar disk, solar activity
    decreased. Between January 27-29 and February 1, solar wind
    intensified, apparently still blowing from the active regions that
    had already set.

    "Further, we expect an irregular evolution without major
    fluctuations. Helioseismological observations show that the activity
    of AR3190 and AR3192 continue on the Sun's far side. We'll have to
    wait another week for their reappearance on the eastern limb."

    Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW in Easton, Pennsylvania reports again on his
    10 meter FM activity. He notes the daily solar flux dropped about
    100 points from mid-January, but good 10 meter propagation
    continues.

    Daily from 1300-1600 UTC he has good propagation to Europe, and is
    recently hearing Israel on 10 meter FM, about 5,700 miles away via
    F2 propagation.

    Mike notes, "Remember, 29.6 MHz is the national FM calling
    frequency, after making the initial contact you should QSY to a
    lower frequency, such as 29.5 or 29.49 MHz, to continue the QSO."

    Jim Hadlock, posting to the email list for the Western Washington DX
    Club noted that sunspot numbers recently hit a 9-year high.

    Jim posted this from Spaceweather.com:

    https://bit.ly/40DEzsj

    Scott Avery, WA6LIE wrote:

    "Today was a fluke on 10 meters FT8. I worked LA7HJA on FT8 on
    Thursday February 2nd at 0041 UTC. He gave me a +04 and I gave him
    a -13 dB report. Great reports and tried calling one other LA, but
    no luck. I confirmed the QSO with his ClubLog.

    "For the past month or so, European openings are from about
    1500-1730 UTC here in California.

    "Have no clue to the method of propagation on this late afternoon's
    QSO. LP?

    "I was just using a wire Delta Loop at 30' feedpoint, part of my
    inverted Vees all common feedpoint.

    "You know in this hobby you just got to be in the right place at the
    right time!"

    Toivo Mykkanen, W8TJM in Liberty Lake, Washington wrote:

    "Just had the best Aurora Path into Scandinavia since we last spoke
    last year. Today, 1 Feb, I was able to work 4 stations on SSB in
    Finland from Eastern Washington and all of them were 10-15 dB over
    S9 with a slight bit of flutter. It was 10 PM in Finland, well after
    15 meters usually shuts down there. Was great to connect with my
    heritage as my parents are from Finland. The Finnish stations were
    working stations all across the USA and Canada."

    Bil Paul, KD8JUI, recalling television reception at the peak of
    Solar Cycle 19, wrote:

    "We were in Wisconsin, around '58 or '59, and we could usually only
    pick up with good reception two TV stations. One Sunday morning I
    got up and switched on the TV. I started getting good reception from
    the SE U.S., Georgia and Florida.

    "As time went on, the skip gradually changed to receiving Alabama
    and Mississippi, and finally ended with Texas. I'm not sure what
    frequencies were being used for those channels (2 through 13) back
    then."

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers January 26 through February 1, 2023 were 104, 84,
    76, 80, 67, 65, and 89, with a mean of 80.7. 10.7 cm flux was 150.6,
    144.9, 137.6, 137, 135.9, 137, and 133.5, with a mean of 139.5.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 9, 10, 5, 5, 9, and 6, with a
    mean of 7.9. Middle latitude A index was 9, 6, 8, 5, 4, 6, and 3,
    with a mean of 5.9.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Feb 10 10:49:38 2023

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP006
    ARLP006 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP06
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 6 ARLP006
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA February 10, 2023
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP006
    ARLP006 Propagation de K7RA

    A period of rising solar activity returned this week.

    Ten new sunspot groups appeared this reporting week (February 2-8),
    two on February 3, one each on February 4-5, four more on February
    6, and two more on February 8.

    On February 9, three more sunspot groups emerged.

    Early on February 9 Spaceweather.com reported a large emerging
    sunspot over our Sun's southeast horizon.

    Average daily sunspot number this week rose from 80.7 to 95.1, and
    average daily solar flux from 139.5 to 155.9.

    On Thursday, February 9 both the sunspot number and solar flux were
    above the average for the previous seven days. Sunspot number at 150
    compared to the average 95.1 and solar flux at 214.9 compared to the
    average of 155.9. Both indicate an upward trend.

    Geomagnetic indicators rose, planetary A index from 7.9 to 11.7,
    middle latitude numbers from 5.9 to 7.6.

    The rise in geomagnetic activity was related to solar wind late in
    the reporting week.

    The solar flux prediction on Wednesday was 192 for February 9 (the
    actual noon solar flux was 214.9), then 195 on February 10-13. As
    you can see below, the Thursday prediction is more optimistic for
    the next few days.

    Predicted solar flux is 214 on February 10, 212 on February 11-13,
    then 208, 205 and 202 on February 14-16, 150 on February 17-18, then
    145, 140, 135, 130 and 135 on February 19-23, 130 on February 24-26,
    125 on February 27, 130 on February 28 through March 3, then 135,
    150 and 160 on March 4-6, 155 on March 7-8, 160 on March 9, and 155
    on March 10-12, then 150 on March 13-17.

    Predicted planetary A index is 12 and 8 on February 10-11, then 5
    on February 12-17, 8 on February 18-19, 5 on February 20-21, 10 on
    February 22-24, then 5, 5 and 8 on February 25-27, and 5, 5, and 8
    on February 28 through March 2, then 5, 5, and 10 on March 3-5, then
    15, 15, 12 and 8 on March 6-9, then 5 on March 10-16, 8 on March
    17-18, 5 on March 19-20 and 10 on March 21-23.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:

    "Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - February 9, 2023.

    "Solar activity was lower between 26 January and 6 February, as
    expected. Two weeks ago, large sunspot groups AR3190 and AR3192,
    fell behind the Sun's western limb. They have now appeared near the
    eastern limb as AR3217 and AR3218. In particular, the region of
    AR3217 was already letting us know of its activity with plasma
    bursts before we could observe it.

    "Thereafter we observed moderate flares in it. AR3217 and AR3218
    will now move through the solar disk, and the increase in solar
    activity will continue.

    "On February 7, rapidly developing sunspot group AR3213 suddenly
    appeared, where at most only two small spots could be observed
    shortly before. Medium-sized flares were observed in AR3213 in the
    following days.

    "Another new activity was the increase in the Earth's magnetic field
    activity starting on February 6.

    "The subsequent increase in the MUF (highest usable frequencies of
    the ionospheric F2 layer) has been slow and irregular so far. We
    will have to wait a few more days for its higher values."

    Check out Scott Craig, WA4TTK and his Solar Data Plotting Utility.
    He wrote it several decades ago back in the days of MS-DOS, and the
    Windows version still works today. It displays sunspot numbers and
    solar flux all the way back to January 1, 1989:

    http://www.craigcentral.com/sol.asp

    Click the "Download SOL313W.ZIP" file to install the program, then
    download the updated GRAPH.dat file for the latest data. It is
    updated to last week, so you can try out the data insertion on this
    bulletin.

    He posted a new copy of the data file, provided by N1API.

    The utility will update the data every week by pointing it toward a
    copy of our bulletin in .txt format.

    The GRAPH.dat file is in text format and can be imported into a
    spreadsheet program to display the data any way you want.

    Tech Times and Weather.com articles on a Radio Blackout:

    https://bit.ly/40J3g6m

    https://bit.ly/3lojTnY

    KB1DK sent this article about something occurring on our Sun:

    https://bit.ly/3Xju0r9

    Larry, W0OGH in Cochise County, Arizona wrote:

    "Who says you can't have fun running QRP?

    "I started playing with QRP on CW, my KX3 at 10W and 10M 4 element
    Yagi just after February 1.

    "Why so late in the game? I don't know but maybe it was because the
    signals took such an upturn in strength.

    "Have been working some POTA stations QRP but no DX until February 1
    when I worked E77DX, OK9PEP, PA1CC, DS2HWS, UA1CE, YL3FT, UY2VM,
    HB0/HB9LCW, OT4A, ON4KHG, S01WS, ZX89L, CX5FK, 9A/UW1GZ, LZ1ND,
    PA3EVY, YU1JW, F6IQA, EA6ACA, ON5ZZ, GM4ATA, OP4F, EI0CZ and many
    more, all on 10 meters.

    "But the kicker and best of all was working EP2ABS on the morning of
    2/6/23 at 1654 UTC on 28.0258 MHz.

    "First time ever in 65 years that I have ever worked an Iran station
    much less heard one. He was really strong and calling CQ getting no
    answers. At the same time I called him, another station called as
    well but he came back to me.

    "Thereafter he had a pileup, but his signal started dropping off, so
    I caught him at the right time. Maybe a duct? Yep, the DX is out
    there on 10M and when the band is hot, you gotta be there.

    "I have even worked some AM stations on and above 29.000 MHz with
    QRP. Lots more fun than high power which in my case is 100W from my
    K3."

    A friend here in Seattle worked him on the same day, was very
    surprised, and mentioned a friend in California who worked EP2ABS
    with 100 watts and an 18 foot wire.

    Another "news" source reporting rising solar activity as some sort
    of existential threat:

    https://bit.ly/3YiRcXP

    https://bit.ly/3RQ8CZz

    A more reliable source:

    https://bit.ly/3YAAIu4

    Dr. Tamitha Skov's, WX6SWW, latest report from February 5:

    https://youtu.be/1Bcmzj7h_mY

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net . When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for February 2 through 8, 2023 were 56, 74, 66, 79,
    139, 110, and 142, with a mean of 95.1. 10.7 cm flux was 134.9,
    134.5, 139, 144, 156.7, 184.7, and 197.6, with a mean of 155.9.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 9, 6, 5, 18, 20, and 18, with
    a mean of 11.7. Middle latitude A index was 2, 6, 5, 3, 13, 12, and
    12, with a mean of 7.6.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Feb 17 14:00:30 2023

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP007
    ARLP007 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP07
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 7 ARLP007
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA February 17, 2023
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP007
    ARLP007 Propagation de K7RA

    At 0725 UTC on February 15 the Australian Space Weather Forecasting
    Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning: "A CME impact
    occurred around 2200 UTC on February 14. Bz has been southward for
    the majority of time since impact and there is a chance of G1
    geomagnetic conditions."

    Bz is the north-south direction of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field
    (IMF).

    They predicted a disturbance for February 15-16.

    They issued a new warning on February 17 at 0206 UTC:

    "A partial halo CME observed on 15-Feb is due to impact Earth's
    magnetosphere late on 17-Feb or early 18-Feb UTC. G1 geomagnetic
    conditions are expected on 18-Feb, with a slight chance of G2.

    "INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL MASS
    EJECTION FROM 17-19 FEBRUARY 2023."

    For the latest geomagnetic conditions, I prefer this source:

    https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index

    More on the IMF:

    https://bit.ly/3E6IZ15

    Many sunspots appeared over this reporting week (February 9-15) with
    three new sunspot groups on February 9, one more on February 10, two
    more on February 11, another on February 12 and three more on
    February 13. Finally, there was one more yesterday, Thursday,
    February 16.

    Recent sunspot images:

    https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/12feb23/hmi1898.gif

    That one is for February 12. To see February 13, just change the
    12feb23 string to 13feb23, and so on, for any other date.

    Average daily sunspot numbers increased from 95.1 to 182.4, and
    average daily solar flux from 155.9 to 196.4.

    Geomagnetic activity also rose, with average daily planetary A index
    going from 11.7 to 13.7, and middle latitude numbers from 7.6 to
    10.7.

    The most active days were at the beginning and end of the week, with
    planetary A index at 21 on February 9 and 29 on February 15. On
    those two days the college A index at Fairbanks, Alaska was 33 and
    46. The quietest day was Monday, February 13 when the planetary A
    index was 4.

    The outlook for the next month seems modest, with predicted solar
    flux at 155, 160, 155, 145 and 135 on February 17-21, 125 on
    February 22-23, 130 on February 24-26, 140 on February 27 to March
    1, 145 on March 2-3, then 150, 155 and 165 on March 4-6, 180 on
    March 7-13, 170 on March 14-15, 160 on March 16-18, and 150 on March
    19, 140 on March 20-21, and 135 on March 22-25.

    Predicted planetary A index is 22, 30, 12, 8 and 12 on February
    17-21, 10 on February 22-24, then 5, 5 and 8 on February 25-27,
    another 5, 5, and 8 on February 28 through March 2, then 5, 5 and 16
    on March 3-5, then 18, 15 and 8 on March 6-8, and 5 on March 9-20,
    then 10 on March 21-23, and 5, 5 and 8 on March 24-26, and another
    5, 5 and 8 on March 27-29.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - February 16, 2023, from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    "On February 11, we observed a seemingly dangerous sunspot group
    AR3217, whose magnetic field had a beta-gamma-delta configuration,
    in which large flares are often observed, up to X-class flares
    accompanied by CMEs. This is what we saw at 1548 UTC, while extreme
    UV radiation ionized the upper part of the Earth's atmosphere.
    Direct result was the Dellinger effect, which disrupted shortwave communications over all of South America.

    "But this particular eruption did not create a CME. Another
    explosion did. Five hours before the X eruption, a magnetic filament
    appeared in the northern hemisphere of the Sun, which spewed a CME
    into space. Thereafter we were expecting an Earth impact on
    Valentine's Day, February 14. This was a fairly accurate prediction
    because the Earth's intervention occurred just one day later, on
    February 15. It was not a direct hit, only a weak G1 class
    geomagnetic storm developed.

    "On February 15 a magnetic filament eruption near the solar equator
    and another CME heading towards Earth was observed. We can expect an
    arrival on February 17-18, again as a weak G1 class geomagnetic
    storm, perhaps intensifying to a mild G2 class storm on February 18.
    Further we can expect to see more M-class solar flares in the next
    few days. Also, an X-class flare is not out of the question. In
    addition, the AR3226 sunspot group with an unstable magnetic field,
    is directly facing the Earth."

    Impossible but dramatic solar image:

    https://bit.ly/3Ib3eMp

    Spaceweather.com warns:

    "GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: Photographers, warm up your cameras. A CME
    is heading for Earth, and it could spark an unusually good display
    of Northern Lights when it arrives on Feb. 17-18. NOAA forecasters
    say that moderate G2-class geomagnetic storms are possible. During
    such storms, auroras have been seen in the USA as far south as,
    e.g., New York and Idaho."

    From the Western Washington DX Club email list:

    WT8P posted at 1855 UTC on February 16:

    "6M FT8 open to central and SA At 1845 UTC, LU9AEA (Argentina) and
    TG9AJR (Guatemala) on FT8, 50.313 MHz."

    W7YED posted at 1939 UTC, February 16:

    "I was able to pick up 5 new ones on 6m in the space of about 20
    minutes. Nice opening!

    "TI, CX, CE, LU, TG were all between +3 and -18."

    A story about "vicious solar storms":

    https://bit.ly/3S8g7uV

    Aurora on Valentine's Day:

    https://bit.ly/3YUvsSb

    A video last week from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/Igfp_EK73Xk

    This weekend is the CW portion of the ARRL International DX Contest.
    For details see: https://www.arrl.org/arrl-dx .

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for February 9 through 15, 2023 were 150, 190, 209,
    197, 185, 206, and 140, with a mean of 182.4. 10.7 cm flux was
    214.9, 207.8, 209.5, 199.7, 189.2, 179.7, and 173.7, with a mean of
    196.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 21, 16, 11, 7, 4, 8, and
    29, with a mean of 13.7. Middle latitude A index was 16, 12, 10, 5,
    3, 6, and 23, with a mean of 10.7.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Mar 31 22:22:48 2023

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP013
    ARLP013 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP13
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 13 ARLP013
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA March 31, 2023
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP013
    ARLP013 Propagation de K7RA

    Solar activity increased this week. Average daily sunspot number
    rose from 68 to 112.6, and average daily solar flux changed from
    145.6 to 156.1.

    A new sunspot group emerged on March 24, two more on March 26 and
    27, and three on March 29.

    Due to solar wind and a geomagnetic disturbance at the beginning of
    the reporting week, average daily planetary A index increased from
    10.6 to 23.3, while average middle latitude A index went from 8.4 to
    13.7. Many reports of aurora came in this week, some down to lower
    latitudes in North America.

    Predicted solar flux is 135 on March 31, 130 on April 1-6, 132 on
    April 7-8, then 130, 132, 135 and 135 on April 9-12, then 140, 145
    and 148 on April 13-15, then 150, 150, 155, 155 and 158 on April
    16-20, 160 on April 21-23, then 155, 145 and 145 on April 24-26, and
    135 on April 27 through May 1, then 132 on May 2-5, then 130, 132,
    135 and 135 on May 6-9.

    Predicted planetary A index is 18, 16, 12, 10 and 8 on March 31
    through April 4, then 5 on April 5-9, then 15, 12, 8 and 5 on April
    10-13, 8 on April 14-15, then 12, 20, 15 and 5 on April 16-19, then
    20, 15 and 10 on April 20-22, 8 on April 23-24, 5 on April 25-26,
    then 12, 15, 10 and 8 on April 27-30, and 5 on May 1-6, then 15, 12
    and 8 on May 7-9.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - March 30, 2023 from OK1HH.

    "The strong geomagnetic storm on 23-24 March was not expected.
    Moreover, it was classified as a G4, making it the most intense in
    almost 6 years. The source of the solar wind was not identified with
    certainty, but a large coronal hole in the south, near the central
    meridian, could not be missed.

    "As a consequence of the disturbance, the ionosphere first
    experienced a rise in the critical frequencies of the F2 layer on 23
    March, followed by a significant drop on 24-25 March. Their normal
    values started to be registered again only after 26 March.

    "Energetic flares are a reliable indicator of the increase in solar
    activity. On March 29, the seventh X-class flare of the year was
    registered. Yet a total of seven were registered in 2022 and only
    two in 2021.

    "Most of the sunspots are now on the western half of the solar disk.
    As they gradually set, total solar activity will first decrease over
    the next week before rising again."

    Here are articles about solar activity as an existential threat:

    https://bit.ly/3M28RQv

    https://bit.ly/42W7xo4

    https://bit.ly/40Qf6Lc

    Nice sunspot video, before the aurora:

    https://bit.ly/3K2alHX

    AA7FV wrote on March 25:

    "There was a 6-meter opening from Arizona to VK on March 24. I
    received VK7HH in Tasmania at 2028 UTC on WSPR; he was using just
    0.2 watts (200 mW)."

    VK7HH responded:

    "Yes, that WSPR spot was from my remote station running 200 mW from
    a Zacktek WSPR TX into a 1/2 wave vertical antenna. HASL 931m."

    AA7FV wrote:

    "For reference, my 50 MHz antenna is a Cushcraft 1/2-wave vertical,
    the Ringo AR6, with its base at about 10 feet above ground. The
    location here is 870m asl but I'm in the valley, just outside
    Tucson. The receiver is an ancient Icom PCR1000, but with a preamp.
    I monitor 6m 24/7, but rarely hear any signals at all, and when I do
    hear something it's usually from someone else in Arizona."

    On March 25, Jon, N0JK wrote:

    "Worked VP8NO in GD18 today on 6 Meter FT8 at 1905 UTC. de N0JK
    EM28 in Kansas."

    Jon was using a portable 2 element Yagi and running 50 watts.

    Here is an article about a "Hole" in the Sun:

    https://www.space.com/solar-flare-coronal-hole-space-weather

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for March 23 through 29, 2023 were 73, 108, 105,
    125, 128, 114, and 135, with a mean of 112.6. 10.7 cm flux was 151,
    157.5, 160.3, 159.4, 158.2, 158.7, and 147.8, with a mean of 156.1.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 60, 66, 15, 8, 3, 5, and 6, with
    a mean of 23.3. Middle latitude A index was 28, 40, 12, 6, 2, 4, and
    4, with a mean of 13.7.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Apr 7 17:29:36 2023

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP014
    ARLP014 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP14
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 14 ARLP014
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA April 7, 2023
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP014
    ARLP014 Propagation de K7RA

    Average solar flux and sunspot numbers were way down this week.
    Sunspot numbers were down by half, from 112.6 last week to 53.4.
    Average daily solar flux declined from 156.1 to 132.5.

    Geomagnetic indicators were lower too. Average daily planetary A
    index from 23.3 last week to 15 in this bulletin, and average daily
    middle latitude A index from 13.7 to 11.7.

    The April 1 middle latitude A index of 11 is my guess. The middle
    latitude A index for April 1 was not available.

    Predicted solar flux is 140 on April 7 and 8, 135 on April 9 to 11,
    140, 145 and 130 on on April 12 to 14, 130 on April 14, 135 on April
    15 to 17, 140 on April 18 to 20, 135 on April 21 to 23, then 130,
    125 and 120 on April 24 to 26, 115 on April 27 to 29, 125 on April
    30, 120 on May 1 and 2, 115 on May 3 and 4, then 110 on May 5 to 7,
    and 115, 120, 125 and 130 on May 8 to 11, then 135 on May 12 to 14,
    and 140 on May 15 to 17.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on April 7 to 10, then 8, 8 and 5
    on April 11 to 13, 8 on April 14 and 15, then 12, 10 and 15 on April
    16 to 18, then 5, 20, 15 and 10 on April 19 to 22, 5 on April 23 to
    25, then 15 and 18 on April 26 and 27, 15 on April 28 and 29, 8 on
    April 30, 10 on May 1 and 2, 8 on May 3, then 5 on May 4 to 6, then
    12, 10, 8 and 5 on May 7 to 10, 8 on May 11 and 12, then 10, 12, 15,
    5 and 20 on May 13 to 17.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere -- April 6, 2023 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    "On March 29, another solar flare of category X1.2 was observed. It
    came from the AR3256 sunspot group near the southwestern limb of the
    Sun.

    This year, in just three months, we've already seen seven X-class
    flares, the same as all of last year. There are still about two
    years to go before the cycle peak.

    On the morning of March 31, a solar wind stream hit Earth,
    triggering a minor G1-class geomagnetic storm. A relatively quiet
    weekend followed.

    Then new sunspot group AR3270 emerged in the southern part of the
    solar disk. It grew rapidly, its two dark cores, larger than Earth,
    indicating an unstable magnetic field. If they merge an eruption
    would likely follow. It would probably be a geoeffective eruption
    because the sunspot was directly opposite the Earth.

    After the AR3270 sunspot group dips behind the southwestern limb of
    the solar disk this weekend, there should be a temporary drop in
    overall solar activity, accompanied by a string of geomagnetically
    quieter days.

    As the irregular occurrence of higher geomagnetic activity results
    in irregular changes in shortwave propagation conditions, the
    subsequent evolution should be more regular and predictable."

    This video from Tamitha Skov came out right after last week's
    bulletin:

    https://youtu.be/F8ERhLiOK88

    More sun fun:

    https://youtu.be/VWhhSWjDJtw

    https://bit.ly/41aolq2

    Don't worry:

    https://bit.ly/3zCtg74

    On April 5 from 1723 to 1746 UTC, Tom, WA1LBK in Fall River,
    Massachusetts copied HC1MD/2 in Ecuador on 6 meter FT8. Check HC1MD
    on QRZ.com for some beautiful photos by Rick, NE8Z.

    https://bit.ly/3zBm5wa

    This weekend is the CW portion of the Japan International DX
    Contest.

    See http://jidx.org/

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for March 30 through April 5, 2023 were 99, 61, 23,
    54, 56, 44, and 37, with a mean of 53.4. 10.7 cm flux was 140.3,
    129.3, 125.3, 126.9, 133.6, 135.7, and 136.6, with a mean of 132.5.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 17, 21, 13, 15, 15, 13, and 11,
    with a mean of 15. Middle latitude A index was 11, 17, 11, 13, 11,
    10, and 9, with a mean of 11.7.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Apr 14 12:45:34 2023

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP015
    ARLP015 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP15
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 15 ARLP015
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA April 14, 2023
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP015
    ARLP015 Propagation de K7RA

    Solar activity was up for this reporting week, April 6-12.

    Seven new sunspot groups appeared, one on April 6, another on April
    9, two more on April 10, another on April 11, and two more on April
    12. Then on Thursday, April 13, three new sunspot groups emerged.
    The sunspot number rose to 154, the highest value in the past month.

    Average daily sunspot number rose from 53.4 to 70.6, and average
    daily solar flux increased from 132.5 to 141.

    On Thursday, the noon solar flux reading was 159.5 and was well
    above the average for the previous seven days, perhaps indicating an
    upward trend.

    Geomagnetic conditions were calm, with average daily planetary A
    index dropping from 15 to 7.6, and the middle latitude average from
    11.7 to 6.4.

    Predicted solar flux was 155 and 160 on April 13-14, and 165 on
    April 15-16.

    The Thursday prediction was well above that.

    Predicted solar flux is 168 on April 14-16, 165 and 160 on April
    17-18, 155 on April 19-22, 158 on April 23, 155 on April 24-25, then
    152, 148, 145 and 142 on April 26-29, 140 on April 30 and May 1, 142
    and 140 on May 2-3, 135 on May 4-5, then 130, 140, 145, 150, 152,
    155 and 158 on May 6-12, then 160 on May 13-15, and 150 and 152 on
    May 16-17, 155 on May 18-19, then 158, 155 and 155 on May 20-22.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8, 12, 10 and 8 on April 14-17, 5 on
    April 18-20, then 8 and 10 on April 21-22, 5 on April 23-25, then 15
    and 18 on April 26-27, 15 on April 28-30, then 12 and 10 on May 1-2,
    8 on May 3-4, 5 on May 5-6, then 8, 10 and 8 on May 7-9, and 5 on
    May 10-13, then 10, 15 and 5 on May 14-16, 20, 15 and 10 on May
    17-19, and 5 on May 20-23.

    Spaceweather.com released this news on Wednesday:

    "Evidence is mounting that Solar Cycle 25 might peak much earlier
    than expected. New research by a leading group of solar physicists
    predicts maximum sunspot activity in late 2023 or early 2024 with a
    peak that could be twice as strong as the previous solar cycle."

    Look in the Spaceweather archive for April 12-13 to read more. It
    is all explained in this scientific paper:

    https://bit.ly/41gZnW4

    I noticed some very odd 10 meter propagation at 2000 UTC on April
    11. Running FT8 and a one wavelength end fed wire at my home in
    Seattle, the only stations that heard me according to
    pskreporter.info were one in New Zealand, another in Hawaii, and in
    North America, only 5 stations (NK5B, AD4ES, K4RMM, KB4FB and AA4CB)
    in Florida, all within a 200 mile strip from 2,512 to 2,712 miles
    from me. Checking again at 2015 UTC, it was still the same. It
    looked quite dramatic on the pskreporter.info map.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - April 13, 2023, from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    "Relatively frequent C-class solar flares, sporadic M-class flares
    in one or two sunspot groups, and the appearance of two or three
    relatively small coronal holes - that's how the Sun looked between
    April 6 and 13.

    "The solar wind speed dropped to 340 km/s by April 9, rose
    significantly to 550 km/s on April 10, and then slowly dropped
    again. The Earth's magnetic field was unsettled on April 10, then
    mostly calm on the other days.

    "MUF values were slightly higher on 10 April. This was followed by
    11 April with irregular daily MUF and irregular occurrences of
    attenuation. Since 12 April onward there was a transition to a
    regular daily course of ionospheric parameters.

    "Now we can expect higher solar activity in the southern hemisphere.
    The rise should continue in the coming days at first. A slight
    decrease will follow after the weekend.

    "A slight increase in geomagnetic activity with consequent
    fluctuations in shortwave propagation conditions can be expected
    rather since the middle of next week."

    Here is a video about the Termination Event:

    https://youtu.be/wcJdNBow_5s

    A story on NASA using AI to predict geomagnetic storms:

    https://bit.ly/3mws16y

    Here is a story about Radio Blackout:

    https://bit.ly/3UCz8ar

    Mike Mason, WB4MM in Daytona Beach, Florida wrote:

    "On April 9 2023 FT8 mode 12 meters beginning at 2254 UTC and ending
    at 2328 UTC I worked 12 JA stations plus 2 South Korean stations in
    a row. I was calling CQ AS WB4MM EL99.

    "My station has 100 watts to an attic 15M dipole. I believe the SFI
    at the time was 135. Not sure of the type of prop. This occurred
    within an hour of sunset at my QTH."

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for April 6 through 12, 2023 were 33, 38, 49, 52,
    92, 103, and 127, with a mean of 70.6. 10.7 cm flux was 137.1,
    136.3, 135.9, 140.3, 139.8, 143.4, and 154, with a mean of 141.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 8, 6, 6, 14, 6, and 4, with a
    mean of 7.6. Middle latitude A index was 7, 7, 5, 5, 11, 6, and 4,
    with a mean of 6.4.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Apr 21 13:52:35 2023

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP016
    ARLP016 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP16
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 16 ARLP016
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA April 21, 2023
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP016
    ARLP016 Propagation de K7RA

    Again this week sunspot numbers and solar flux were higher than the
    week before.

    Average daily sunspot numbers more than doubled, from 70.6 to 146.9,
    and average daily solar flux increased from 141 to 164.5. Both
    figures represent a substantial increase in solar activity.

    Planetary A index averages went from 7.6 to 8.1, while middle
    latitude A index advanced from 6.4 to 7.3.

    Three new sunspot groups emerged on April 13, one more on April 16,
    and another on April 17.

    Predicted solar flux over the next few weeks is 145, 140 and 135 on
    April 21-23, 130 on April 24-25, 125 on April 26-27, 160 on April
    28-29, 165 on April 30, 172 on May 1-3, 170 on May 4, 172 on May
    5-7, 178 on May 8, 182 on May 9-12, then 175, 178 and 170 on May
    13-15, 168 on May 16-17, 175 on May 18, then 172 on May 19-21, then
    168 and 162 on May 22-23, 160 on May 24-26, 165 on May 27, and 172
    on May 28-30.

    Predicted planetary A index is 20, 16, 12 and 8 on April 21-24, 5 on
    April 25-27, 15 on April 28-30, then 12 and 10 on May 1-2, 8 on May
    3-4, 5 on May 5-6, 12 on May 7, 5 on May 8-10, then 8 on May 11-12,
    5 on May 13-18, then 10, 8, 5 and 5 on May 19-22, 15 and 18 on May
    23-24, 15 on May 25-27, then 12 and 10 on May 28-29.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - April 20, 2023 from OK1HH.

    "Of the fifteen sunspot groups observed over the past week, AR3272
    and AR3282 were the source of most of the flares. Both had a
    beta-gamma magnitude configuration. 61 C-class flares and 4 M-class
    flares were observed.

    "The partial halo CMEs on 15 and 16 April were the source of
    particles that reached Earth on 18 April, when the solar wind speed
    increased abruptly at 1308 UTC and a geomagnetic disturbance
    developed.

    "A positive phase of the ionospheric disturbance was recorded on the
    afternoon of 18 April, followed by a negative phase on 19 April.
    This was followed on 20 April with a significant increase in f0F2
    and improved shortwave propagation conditions before noon UTC.

    "The outlook looks promising for the first half of May, when solar
    activity should increase further."

    Dan Handa, W7WA commented on the news last week about the current
    solar cycle reaching a peak earlier than predicted, perhaps by the
    end of this year.

    I told him I hoped it would not peak early, because I wanted to see
    several more years of increasing activity.

    Dan sent a very detailed graph of Solar Cycle 19 from 1954 to 1966,
    and wrote: "I have read, and more than once, a slow rise means a low
    sunspot max. The previous Solar Cycle 24 took five years to reach a
    relatively low maximum. A rapid increase can mean a high sunspot
    maximum. The granddaddy of our lifetime, Solar Cycle 19 peaked in
    three years!"

    I did not know this.

    In a subsequent message, Dan further commented:

    "There was a lot of short term variation in the Solar Cycle 19
    sunspot number, just like we're seeing now. From the graph the
    timing of the Solar Cycle 19 peak can be defined three different
    ways: the daily peak, the smoothed monthly peak or the smoothed
    yearly peak, take your pick."

    Another Solar Cycle 19? Many hams have dreamed of this for the past
    six decades.

    Dale, WB6MMQ reported that the solar images in the ARRL Letter with
    a preview of our Friday bulletin show a blank Sun. I wasn't sure
    what he was talking about, but now I realize this must be a stock
    image (not from me!) used in the Letter.

    I sent Dale links to some recent images from Spaceweather.com:

    https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/20apr23/hmi1898.gif

    https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/19apr23/hmi1898.gif

    https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/18apr23/hmi1898.gif

    https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/17apr23/hmi1898.gif

    I hope this clears up the confusion.

    An odd correlation between an ancient epidemic and solar activity:

    https://bit.ly/3Lsqfxf

    A story about a possible early Solar peak:

    https://www.space.com/sun-solar-maximum-may-arrive-early

    A story about possible M-class solar flares:

    https://bit.ly/3KVc1n1

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for April 13 through 19, 2023 were 154, 153, 151,
    155, 162, 140, and 113, with a mean of 146.9. 10.7 cm flux was
    159.5, 171.3, 175.8, 177.8, 166.6, 153.2, and 147, with a mean of
    164.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 7, 9, 4, 6, 13, and 12,
    with a mean of 8.1. Middle latitude A index was 5, 10, 8, 4, 6, 9,
    and 9, with a mean of 7.3.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.20-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Apr 28 12:43:36 2023

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP017
    ARLP017 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP17
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 17 ARLP017
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA April 28, 2023
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP017
    ARLP017 Propagation de K7RA

    At 0134 UTC on April 27, The Australian Space Weather Forecasting
    Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning:

    "An equatorial coronal hole is currently elevating solar wind
    speeds. Combined with the anticipated impact from a recent CME on
    April 27, geomagnetic activity is expected to be at G0-G1 levels
    over April 27-28, with a slight chance of an isolated period of G2."

    Solar and geomagnetic indicators moved in opposite directions this
    week. Average daily sunspot numbers over April 20-26 made a dramatic
    drop from 146.9 to 91.4, and average daily solar flux from 164.5 to
    139.4.

    Average daily planetary A index more than tripled from 8.1 to 26.9,
    while average middle latitude A index more than doubled from 7.3 to
    15.6.

    Solar wind and explosions caused all this grief.

    Spaceweather.com reported that on April 21, a large magnetic
    filament on the Sun exploded, hurling debris toward Earth.

    Later they reported that on April 23 at 1737 UTC a CME hit Earth,
    sparking a severe G4-class geomagnetic storm. Aurora was visible as
    far south as southern New Mexico and Texas.

    The planetary K index went as high as 8 over April 23-24.

    Predicted solar flux over the next month is 135 on April 28-30, 140
    on May 1-2, 135 on May 3-4, 140 on May 5-6, then 145, 150, 155, 160
    and 165 on May 7-11, 170 on May 12-13, then 165, 160, 155, 150, 145
    and 140 on May 14-19, 135 on May 20-21, 130 and 125 on May 22-23,
    120 on May 24-25, then 125, 130 and 135 on May 26-28, 140 on May 29
    through June 2, then 145, 150, 155, 160, and 165 on June 3-7.

    Predicted planetary A index is 25, 16 and 12 on April 28-30, 8 on
    May 1-5, 12 and 10 on May 6-7, 8 on May 8-9, then 5, 5 and 12 on May
    10-12, 5 on May 13-15, 8 on May 16-17, 5 on May 18-22, then 15 and
    18 on May 23-34, and 15 on May 25-27, then 12 and 10 on May 28-29, 8
    on May 30-31, then 5, 5 and 12 on June 1-3, and 5 on June 4-6.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - April 27, 2023 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    "The most important event of the last seven days was the solar flare
    on 21 April with a maximum at 1812 UTC (1744 - 1857 UT). It was a
    long duration event (LDE), accompanied by the ejection of a cloud of
    coronal plasma into space, at a location on the Sun where there is a
    high probability of the cloud hitting the Earth. It is therefore not
    surprising that all forecast centres agreed in predicting the
    impending disturbance.

    "The speed of the solar wind jumped up on 23 April at 1703 UTC,
    after which a geomagnetic disturbance began to develop. It was much
    stronger than expected (max K=8 and G4 instead of the expected K=6
    and G1-2). Auroras were observed with two maxima - in Europe on 23
    April mainly between 1900-2100 UTC and in North America on 24 April
    between 0300-0400 UTC.

    "Thereafter, propagation conditions deteriorated significantly,
    especially on 24-25 April, with one interesting variation of the
    evolution: the calming of the geomagnetic field on the morning of 25
    April UTC was followed by a further development of the disturbance
    with an albeit shorter but significant improvement. The return of
    the critical frequencies of the F2 layer and the improvement of
    shortwave propagation conditions toward the mean continued only
    slowly in the following days, as intervals of increased geomagnetic
    activity occurred daily. The lowest f0F2 were observed on the night
    of 23-24 April. The following night was slightly better."

    Rocky Riggs, W6RJK in Truckee, California wrote:

    "I was not very active until recently when I was introduced to POTA.
    The park I frequent the most would typically give me 40-60 contacts
    in a 2 hour period.

    "On Monday, the 24th, I went to the same park, and in 30+ minutes
    had no contacts and couldn't hear anyone either. I later found out
    that the solar storm was causing most of our radio problems. Until
    then, I had never considered much about solar flares, or how the Sun
    influences radio propagation. Now, finally, I'm trying to learn as
    much as I can. The K7RA Solar Update in the ARRL Newsletter is
    FANTASTIC, and will be my source going forward to help me learn and
    understand.

    "Here's my question. Is there a 'real time' place where I can go to
    determine if a particular band has good propagation (I typically use
    20m and 40m)?

    "You know, like before I go out and get all set up and it's a 'goose
    egg.'"

    I replied:

    "I recommend pskreporter.info, and look on the map screen for FT8
    signals from your grid square and where they are heard. You don't
    have to use FT8 to use this.

    "You can also check for the 'country of callsign' option with your
    own or any callsign. When I do this for 10 meters, this week it has
    been showing no propagation from my area, but lots of 10 meter
    propagation in the south and across the east coast.

    "I use FT8 a lot to study propagation."

    Angel Santana, WP3GW in Trujillo Alto, Puerto Rico wrote:

    "Been doing a lot of FT8 these months. More DXpeditions are
    including its operation. Just last week on April 16th at 1939 UTC
    worked VU7W and in WARD April 18th T30UN at 0721 on 40m and 0735 on
    30m, the two ATNOs."

    (I think WARD refers to World Amateur Radio Day, and of course ATNO
    refers to All Time New One, something I did not know until a few
    years ago. -K7RA)

    "But on the 20th, at 0800 UTC, saw stations on 10 meters, normally
    you do not hear them on any mode at that time. Then I began to call
    them and a few from Europe contacted me. Then at about 0845 UTC,
    'poof' they disappeared.

    "These are the things that make me say that it is because of the
    'crazy prop' (la propa loca)."

    Tomas Hood, NW7US has a monthly propagation column in CQ Magazine,
    which is a great resource. In the March issue he writes about the
    promising progress of Solar Cycle 25.

    Another great resource is Chapter 19, the "Propagation of Radio
    Signals" in the 2023 100th edition of the ARRL Handbook. It contains
    the most comprehensive treatment of radio propagation I have ever
    seen and goes on for 38 pages.

    Aurora observed in China:

    https://bit.ly/41KyY3w

    Aurora in Iowa:

    https://bit.ly/3Nlvy2S

    An article explaining aurora:

    https://bit.ly/3n7ROm2

    A Science & Tech article about Sun science:

    https://bit.ly/429Sqq9

    From 2017, a NASA sunspot video:

    https://www.exploratorium.edu/video/nasa-life-sunspot

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to
    tell us which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-Earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for April 20 through 26, 2023 were 97, 114, 87, 86,
    88, 87, and 81, with a mean of 91.4. 10.7 cm flux was 147, 151.2,
    141.2, 135.2, 133.9, 130.7, and 136.5, with a mean of 139.4.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 9, 7, 66, 76, 10, and 15, with
    a mean of 26.9. Middle latitude A index was 5, 8, 6, 32, 39, 7, and
    12, with a mean of 15.6.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.20-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri May 5 08:56:53 2023

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP018
    ARLP018 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP18
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 18 ARLP018
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA May 5, 2023
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP018
    ARLP018 Propagation de K7RA

    Spaceweather.com posted the following report on May 4:

    "REVERSED-POLARITY SUNSPOT EXPLODES: A rare reversed-polarity
    sunspot exploded today, producing a long-lasting M-class solar flare
    and a CME that might hit Earth. Geomagnetic storms are possible this
    weekend if/when the CME arrives."

    Sunspot activity and solar flux increased over the past reporting
    week, April 27 through May 3.

    Average daily sunspot numbers climbed from 91.4 to 114, while
    average daily solar flux grew from 139.4 to 151.5.

    Average daily planetary A index dropped from 26.9 to 13.6, and
    average daily middle latitude A index declined from 15.6 to 11.9.

    Predicted solar flux over the next month is 162 on May 5-6, 164 on
    May 7, 162 on May 8-9, 164 on May 10-11, 170 on May 12-13, then 165,
    160, 155, 150, 145 and 140 on May 14-19, 135 on May 20-21, then 130
    and 125 on May 22-23, 120 on May 24-25, then 125, 130 and 135 on May
    26-28, 140 on May 29 through June 2, then 145, 150 and 155, 160 and
    165 on June 3-7, 170 on June 8-9, then 165, 160, 155, 150, and 145
    on June 10-14. .

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on May 5, then 12, 8, 5 and 5 on
    May 6-9, 5 on May 10-11, 8 on May 12, 5 on May 13-22, 12 and 20 on
    May 23-24, 15 on May 25-26, 8 and 12 on May 27-28, 10 on May 29-30,
    then 8, 5, 12 and 10 on May 31 through June 3, 5 on June 4-6, 8 on
    June 7-8, and 5 on June 9 through mid-month and beyond.

    On Wednesday, May 3 Spaceweather.com posted, "INTENSIFYING SOLAR
    ACTIVITY: Sunspot complex AR3293-3296 is crackling with strong
    M-class solar flares--six of them today so far."

    It looks like we face continued favorable HF propagation.

    Recently I wrote of my bafflement at 10 meter propagation I observed
    using FT8 and pskreporter.info, in which my signals were only being
    reported in Florida. I now have a better understanding of this.

    On May 1 from 1930-2030 UTC I saw the same thing, with reports from
    2,200-2,700 miles away, which suggests a 500 mile wide skip
    distance. Mexican stations also reported me, over that same distance
    in a 500 mile band. So, this suggests that it isn't just Florida,
    and that the same signal is stretching out into the Gulf of Mexico
    and the Atlantic Ocean, but I don't see it because there are no
    stations there to receive my signal.

    Later I saw multi-hop reports from ZL4KYH at 7,246 miles, 5W1SA at
    5,230 miles, LU8EX at 6,893 miles and LU4FTA at 6,750 miles.

    Jon N0JK wrote on April 29:

    "I was able to work LU9DO, LU8EX and PY2XB that afternoon. The South
    American signals popped up on what was otherwise a dead band. Later
    some station in Florida came in. I was running 50 watts and a 3
    element Yagi portable in EM28, northeast Kansas. May 1 - D2UY worked
    stations in Florida and W3LPL in Maryland on was likely Es -- TEP.

    "There will likely be more of these Es -- TEP openings in early
    May."

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere May 05-11, 2023 from OK1HH:

    "While long-term forecasters are beginning to come to terms with the possibility that the growth in solar activity could slow this year
    and the current 25th cycle may not be one of the high ones, solar
    activity has begun to increase. Already last week, sunspot group
    AR3288 in the southwest with an unstable delta class magnetic field
    was the source of an M7 class solar flare on May 1 at 1309 UTC. But
    another M7 class eruption occurred on May 3 in the newly emerged
    AR3293 in the northeastern part of the solar disk.

    "Interestingly, a new group of spots, AR3296 in the northwest,
    violates Hale's Law, as it has the opposite magnetic polarity that
    is appropriate in the current 11-year cycle (polarity should be
    negative on the left and positive on the right).

    "The solar wind speed and Earth's magnetic field activity have
    finally begun to decrease after a long active period, and the
    conditions for shortwave propagation have finally improved, although
    not to the extent we had hoped."

    A story from Sky & Telescope about the Sun:

    https://bit.ly/3NGlMbp

    Two stories about massive solar flares, one from about 400 years
    ago:

    https://bit.ly/427oI5w

    https://bit.ly/3ASEfu1

    Some nonsense about flares:

    https://bit.ly/3NGD5t3

    More Aurora in our future:

    https://bit.ly/3AZxDKl

    A story about Radio Blackout:

    https://bit.ly/41bVL74

    More about Aurora Australis:

    https://ab.co/44qDbet

    This weekend is the 10-10 CW QSO Party, on 10 meters of course:

    https://www.ten-ten.org/activity/2013-07-22-20-26-48/qso-party-rules

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for April 27 through May 3, 2023 were 136, 111, 82,
    105, 87, 134, and 143, with a mean of 114. 10.7 cm flux was 140.8,
    149.8, 155.8, 153.5, 147.9, 156.8, and 156.2, with a mean of 151.5.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 23, 19, 20, 10, 10, 9, and 4,
    with a mean of 13.6. Middle latitude A index was 20, 16, 18, 8, 8,
    9, and 4, with a mean of 11.9.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.20-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri May 12 18:27:01 2023

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP019
    ARLP019 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP19
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 19 ARLP019
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA May 12, 2023
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP019
    ARLP019 Propagation de K7RA

    We saw a modest increase in solar activity in this reporting week,
    May 4-10.

    Average daily sunspot numbers nudged up from 114 to 119.3, and
    average daily solar flux from 151.5 to 167.1

    Average daily planetary A index changed from 13.6 to 15.1, and
    average middle latitude A index remained the same, 11.9.

    Predicted solar flux is 160 on May 12-13, then 155, 150 and 150 on
    May 14-16, 145 on May 17-18, 155 on May 19-21, 150 on May 22, 145 on
    May 23-25, then 140 and 145 on May 26-27, 155 on May 29-30, 160 on
    May 31 through June 1, 155 on June 2-3, 160 on June 4-7, then 165,
    160, 150, 145 and 150 on June 8-12, and 155 on June 13-17.

    Predicted planetary A index is 30, 12 and 8 on May 12-14, 5 on May
    15-22, then 12 and 20 on May 23-24, 15 on May 25-26, 10 on May
    27-28, 8 on May 29, 5 on May 30 through June 1, then 16, 12, 16 and
    12 on June 2-5, 8 on June 6-8, and 5 on June 9- 18, then 12 and 20
    on June 19-20.

    Stormy space weather:

    https://www.space.com/sun-reverse-sunspot-auroras-supercharge

    BBC on viewing aurora:

    https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/northern-lights-may-2023-backward-sunspot/

    More:

    https://bit.ly/44Rruxk

    Jon, N0JK wrote on May 9:

    "Good 6 Meter Es, TEP May 7 FT8 from northeast Kansas.

    I worked CX2AQ and LU5FF from home with an attic dipole on FT8. This
    around 2115 UTC. Not strong, but solid contacts. I then set up
    portable.

    Worked CE2SV and CE3SX. CE3SX called me, also FT8. Had difficulty
    keeping yagi up due to gusty winds. On ON4KST Dale, CE2SV noted:

    00:11:46 N0JK Jon, A struggle on my side, wind blew antenna down
    several times and broke director. Duct tape to the rescue.

    00:11:07 N0JK Jon (CE2SV) Dale - Thank you for the contact.

    22:42:46 CE2SV Dale (N0JK) Finally Jon ... TU

    Gary, N0KQY observes there is a 'consistent time frame' for Es --
    TEP to South America from the Midwest. Best seems to be 2000-0000
    UTC."

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere May 12-18, 2023 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    "The more vivid and complex solar activity is, the less predictable
    it is. The same is valid for its effects in the Earth's
    magnetosphere and ionosphere.

    This was particularly true of the solar flares of May 4 and 5, and
    also of the G2 class geomagnetic storm with auroras. The CMEs
    overlapping each other were difficult to separate.

    Another CME that struck the Earth on May 7 (1544 UTC) was expected
    but, contrary to predictions, did not cause a significant storm.
    Another Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) hit the Earth on May 9 at 2310
    UTC.

    Shortly before, AR3296 (with reversed magnetic polarity and thus
    violating Hale's law) released a double solar flare.

    The consequence was the Dellinger effect (a shortwave fade) up to 25
    MHz from 1900-2100 UTC. Another CME followed with a velocity of over
    1,000 km/s (2.24 million mph). Shock waves at its leading edge
    accelerated protons to nearly the speed of light, making them
    'relativistic particles', for which time passes more slowly. They
    can reach the Earth and affect the ionosphere.

    These lines are written on the afternoon of 11 May UTC, when the
    particles from the eruption of 9 May with a maximum at 1858 UTC are
    expected to arrive.

    Large AR3296 and AR3297 will set behind the northwestern edge of the
    solar disc in a few days. In the meantime, AR3301 and AR3302 emerged
    in the northeast.

    Helioseismological observations indicate another large sunspot group
    will follow them out. Therefore, the current variable nature of the
    evolution with numerous disturbances will continue."

    Five days ago from Dr. Tamitha Skov:

    https://youtu.be/E1lBqqWEa5Q

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for May 4 through 10, 2023 were 139, 90, 99, 99,
    103, 151, and 154, with a mean of 119.3. 10.7 cm flux was 162,
    161.9, 151.8, 157.2, 171.9, 194.7, and 170.1, with a mean of 167.1.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 5, 30, 9, 16, 14, and 26, with
    a mean of 15.1. Middle latitude A index was 7, 4, 21, 8, 13, 11, and
    19, with a mean of 11.9.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.20-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri May 19 14:20:16 2023
    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP020
    ARLP020 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP20
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 20 ARLP020
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA May 19, 2023
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP020
    ARLP020 Propagation de K7RA

    This reporting week, May 11-17, average daily sunspot number was
    nearly the same as last week, 118.6 compared to 119.3, only
    marginally lower.

    But average daily solar flux dropped from 167.8 to 143.2.

    Geomagnetic indicators were quieter, both planetary and middle
    latitude A index at 9.6. Last week the two numbers were 15.1 and
    11.9, respectively.

    What is the outlook for the next few weeks?

    10.7 cm solar flux is forecast to have a peak of 165 on June 8.

    The predicted numbers are 145 on May 19, 140 on May 20-21, 135 on
    May 22-24, 140 on May 25-26, 145 on May 27, 155 on May 28-30, 160 on
    May 31 and June 1, 155 on June 2-3, 160 on June 4-7, then 165, 160,
    150, 145, and 150 on June 8-12, then 155 on June 13-17, 150 on June
    18, 145 on June 19-21, 140 and 145 on June 22-23, and 155 on June
    24-26 then 160 on June 27-28.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5, 8, 12, 15 and 5 on May 19-23, 12
    on May 24-25, 15 on May 26, 10 on May 27-28, 8 on May 29, 5 on May
    30 through June 1, then 16, 12, 16 and 12 on June 2-5, 8 on June
    6-8, then 5 on June 9-18, 12 and 20 on June 19-20, 15 on June 21-22,
    10 on June 23-24, 8 on June 25, and 5 on June 26-28.

    These numbers are updated daily here:

    https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/45-day-ap-forecast.txt

    Thanks to reader David Moore for this:

    "How 1,000 undergraduates helped solve an enduring mystery about the
    Sun:

    "https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2023/05/230509122026.htm

    "For three years at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, a group of
    students spent an estimated 56,000 hours analyzing the behavior of
    hundreds of solar flares. Their results could help astrophysicists
    understand how the Sun's corona reaches temperatures of millions of
    degrees Fahrenheit."

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - May 18, 2023, from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    "On May 12, we expected a CME impact from the flare on the evening
    of May 9. It was indeed registered - at 0635 UTC the geomagnetic
    storm began. However, it was weaker than expected, of G1 class.

    "On 13 May at 1915 UTC, an unexpected CME impact followed for a
    change, which again triggered another G1 class geomagnetic storm.

    "On 16 May, we expected another smaller CME. The particle cloud has
    been slowly approaching Earth since the magnetic filament eruption
    in the southern hemisphere of the Sun on 12 May.

    "The next solar flare on May 16, with a maximum at 1643 UTC, was
    M9.6 class. It came from a sunspot group still hiding behind the
    southeastern limb of the Sun. In fact, it may have been an X flare,
    partially obscured by the solar horizon. Yet it caused the strong
    Dellinger effect (shortwave fade) over North America. After the
    sunspot group came out on the solar disk, we could observe it as AR
    3310. It's about three times wider than Earth, and its magnetic
    configuration promises more flares.

    "Not only was solar flare activity quite high, but the Sun was
    hurling so many CMEs into space that hardly a day went by without
    one hitting Earth. Therefore, the frequency of geomagnetic storms
    was also higher, followed by frequent deterioration of shortwave
    propagation conditions. In summary, the 25th solar cycle continues
    to evolve nicely."

    Frank, VO1HP sent this from St. Johns, Newfoundland:

    "On May 12 1957-2113 UTC, there was a strong 6M Es opening into mid
    South America. Logged 20 stations using FT8. No CW or SSB heard.
    Stations worked at VO1HP remote station: LU3CQ, CE3SX, 2SV, LI7DUE,
    9AEA, 9DO, 1FAM, 8EX, CX3VB, PP5BK, LU2DPW, CX1VH, PU3AMB, CX6VM,
    LU3FAP, XQ3SK, XQ3MCC, CE3VRT, 3SOC, and LU5FF.

    "Antenna 4el Yagi at 35ft overlooking ocean. K3 + PR6, KPA500
    KAT500. Other VO1s seen: VO1CH, VO1SIX, and VO1AW."

    On April 24, Rocky Riggs, W6RJK in Truckee, California wrote:

    "I was not very active until recently when I was introduced to POTA.
    The park I frequent the most would typically give me 40-60 contacts
    in a 2 hour period.

    "On Monday, April 24th, I went to the same park, and in 30+ minutes
    had no contacts and couldn't hear anyone either. I later found out
    that the solar storm was causing most of our radio problems. Until
    then, I had never considered much about solar flares, or how the Sun
    influences radio propagation. Now, finally, I'm trying to learn as
    much as I can. The K7RA Solar Update in the ARRL Newsletter is
    FANTASTIC and will be my source going forward to help me learn and
    understand.

    "Here's my question. Is there a 'real time' place where I can go to
    determine if a particular band has good propagation (I typically use
    20m and 40m)?

    "You know, like before I go out and get all set up and it's a 'goose
    egg.'"

    As I first reported in Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP017, I told
    him that a very useful tool (to use) is to check real time
    geomagnetic indices with this:

    https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index

    Nice quiet conditions show a planetary A index at 1 or 2, unsettled
    conditions at 3, then above 3 conditions are disturbed. The scale is logarithmic, so each point in either direction is important.

    Another approach is to use pskreporter at https://www.pskreporter.info/pskmap.html which is handy if you live
    in a grid square that has many active hams, or a nearby grid that is
    more populated.

    You can check FT8 activity on any band. There is also a "Country of
    Callsign" selection so you can check activity across your nation of
    choice. Recently when I have raised nobody on 10 meter FT8 this
    option showed no activity here in the Pacific Northwest but plenty
    of 10 meter activity in the southeast United States.

    Here is a new video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/xSQYjH6D_YA

    NASA sunspot picture:

    https://bit.ly/458DrPw

    A video of a recent eruption:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rm7M5pqjCgY

    Here are articles about Radio Blackout:

    https://bit.ly/434c5bw

    https://bit.ly/3pWId2e

    https://bit.ly/45hXTxh

    https://bit.ly/3MEkCwa

    NASA warning of a Solar Storm threat:

    https://bit.ly/3pSK4p2

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for May 11 through 17, 2023 were 152, 134, 120, 109,
    103, 106, and 106, with a mean of 118.6. 10.7 cm flux was 163.4,
    149.1, 143.8, 139.7, 134.5, 134.3, and 137.9, with a mean of 143.2.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 19, 13, 8, 6, 8, and 4, with a
    mean of 9.6. Middle latitude A index was 10, 15, 12, 9, 6, 10, and
    5, with a mean of 9.6.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.20-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri May 26 20:18:58 2023
    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP021
    ARLP021 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP21
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 21 ARLP021
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA May 26, 2023
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP021
    ARLP021 Propagation de K7RA

    Both average daily sunspot numbers and solar flux increased this
    week. Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 118.6 to 133.4, while
    average solar flux went from 143.2 to 161.2.

    Geomagnetic indicators were more active. Average daily planetary A
    index went from 9.6 to 17.1, while average middle latitude A index
    rose from 9.6 to 14.4.

    Predicted solar flux is 150 on May 26, 155 on May 27 and 28, then
    150, 145, 140 and 135 on May 29 through June 1, 155 on June 2 to 4,
    then 160, 165, 160, 155, and 150 on June 5 to 9, 145 on June 10 and
    11, 150 on June 12, 155 on June 13 and 14, 160 on June 15, 165 on
    June 16 and 17, then 160, 155 and 150 on June 18 to 20, 155 on June
    21 and 22, then 160, 165 and 160 on June 23 to 25, 155 on June 26
    and 27, 150 on June 28, and 155 on June 29 to July 1, then 160, 165
    and 160 on July 2 to 4.

    Predicted planetary A index is 15, 8, 5, 12 and 10 on May 26 to 30,
    5 on May 31 through June 1, then 16, 8, 10 and 8 on June 2 to 5, 5
    on June 6 to 15, then 12, 10, 5, 18, 22, 15 and 10 on June 16 to 22,
    5 on June 23 to 28, then 16, 8, 10 and 8 on June 29 through July 2,
    and 5 through the first week of July.

    "Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - May 25, 2023

    We've seen another seven days of turbulent developments on the Sun
    and around the Earth. The large, seen even without binoculars
    (e.g., eclipse glasses) visible sunspot group AR3310 in the southern
    hemisphere was the source of the strongest flare on May 16 with an
    X-ray event maximum of M9.6.

    Another group AR3311 in the north, due to its unstable magnetic
    field configuration "beta-gamma-delta", produced almost all the
    other flares. The stronger ones were the cause of Dellinger events
    (SWF = Shortwave fadeout, in the case of M9.6 it was registered in
    the whole shortwave range in the region where the Sun was high).
    Moreover, the eruptions, combined with sporadic E layer, often
    significantly affected the propagation in the lower shortwave bands
    by deep and irregular fadeouts.

    SOHO recorded a rare conjunction on May 21, when a filament near the
    Sun's north pole was ejected as a CME in direction to the Pleiades,
    Seven Sisters star cluster. Coronagraph on SOHO has been operating
    since 1995 and was the first to operate in real time. No one had
    ever seen anything like it before.

    Since May 24, we observed a new and rapidly growing group of spots,
    AR3315, in which we can expect more major solar flares as time goes
    on. So the turbulent evolution with changing and often worsening
    shortwave propagation conditions continues.

    F. K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH"

    K7EG wrote:

    "I have been in the DX hobby since 1950 and seem to see an
    increasing, alarming recent trend in solar and geomagnetic activity
    impacting trends in radio disturbances. Tell me I am wrong and it's
    just a 'blip' but solar activity seems beyond the norm and
    worsening."

    I replied that with greater solar activity we should expect more
    flares, solar wind, and disturbances. I think the disturbances are
    normal and expected with the rising solar cycle.

    When I suspect conditions are disturbed, this is where I check to
    see what is happening in real time:

    https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index

    Beautiful aurora: https://tinyurl.com/2zxdmpu6

    Sunspot images: https://tinyurl.com/muaakxn9

    https://www.popsci.com/science/sun-images-powerful-solar-telescope/

    https://bit.ly/3MCqAwm

    Thanks to NO6ED for this story about an undersea volcano disrupting
    the ionosphere. https://bit.ly/428OAwM

    This weekend is the CQ World Wide WPX CW Contest. https://www.cqwpx.com/rules.htm

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for May 18 through 24, 2023 were 121, 155, 138, 140,
    97, 130, and 153, with a mean of 133.4. 10.7 cm flux was 150.6,
    164.6, 169.6, 163.4, 161.5, 154.9, and 164.1, with a mean of 161.2.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 9, 35, 28, 21, 12, and 12,
    with a mean of 17.1. Middle latitude A index was 8, 10, 26, 19, 17,
    11, and 10, with a mean of 14.4.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.20-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Jun 2 16:03:46 2023
    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP022
    ARLP022 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP22
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 22 ARLP022
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA June 2, 2023
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP022
    ARLP022 Propagation de K7RA

    Average daily solar flux values dropped over the past week, but
    sunspot numbers were nearly the same, comparing May 25 to 31 to the
    previous week.

    Average daily solar flux declined from 161.2 to 155.3. Geomagnetic
    indicators were quieter, with average daily planetary A index
    declining from 17.1 to 7.3, and middle latitude numbers from 14.4 to
    7.9.

    Predicted solar flux is 160 on June 2, 155 on June 3-4, 150 on June
    5-8, 130 on June 9-11, then 135, 140, 143, 145, and 150 on June
    12-16, 155 on June 17-20, 150 on June 21-25, then 145, 140 and 135
    on June 26-28 and 130 on June 29 to July 8.

    Predicted planetary A index is 15, 12, 10 and 8 on June 2-5, 5 on
    June 6-17, then 22, 15, 12 and 10 on June 18-21, 5 on June 22-24, 12
    and 10 on June 25-26, then 5 on June 27-28, then 15, 12, 15, 10 and
    8 on June 29 through July 3, then 5 on July 4 through the middle of
    the month.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - June 1, 2023 from OK1HH.

    "The Sun still surprises us, it has been in the habit for billions
    of years, but we only observe it for a few hundred years. So, we
    have a right to be surprised by what it is doing and what we can
    observe with instruments on satellites and powerful solar telescopes
    on Earth, including the largest four-metre one on the island of Maui
    in Hawaii, which can see the very fine structures of sunspot nuclei.

    "What's more, we're seeing spots on the far side of the Sun that are
    so big, they affect the vibration of the whole Sun. But we can only
    see their structure and predict possible flares after they appear on
    the eastern limb of the solar disk, which was not at all the case
    with the current most active AR3315, which did not appear there. It
    emerged later, thereafter began to grow rapidly.

    "Conversely, the source of the next big flare was hidden behind the southeastern limb, and we only saw the prominence above it.

    "Meanwhile, the larger groups of sunspots have mostly moved to the
    western half of the solar disk. A large coronal hole in the southern
    hemisphere now crosses the central meridian. This increases the
    likelihood of geomagnetic disturbances starting on June 2."

    Mike, AK7ML wrote:

    "I recall in a movie about Pearl Harbor that they could not reach
    Hawaii from stateside on HF and then they sent the message by cable
    telegraph in routine status, so Pearl was not informed of the attack
    in time.

    "For years I have been able to work Australia in the morning and now
    it is Indonesia that is workable instead!"

    A story about a big sunspot:

    https://www.fox9.com/news/giant-sunspot-ar3310-visible-earth

    I've added information from this resource to the text appearing at
    the bottom of every propagation forecast bulletin (this resource
    comes from September 2002 QST):

    https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf

    I was sad to learn that old friend Chip Margelli, K7JA became a
    Silent Key on May 25. Chip was from the Seattle area, and first came
    to my attention when he became proficient in the Japanese language
    during high school, then specialized in running JA stations at the
    old Rush Drake, W7RM contest station on Foulweather Bluff in Puget
    Sound. At one time he may have been the most famous American ham in
    Japan, or so I heard at the time.

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for May 25 through 31, 2023 were 121, 127, 125, 119,
    153, 144, and 147, with a mean of 133.7. 10.7 cm flux was 152.1,
    149, 156.9, 151.3, 154.4, 162, and 161.4, with a mean of 155.3.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 6, 4, 11, 4, 5, and 10, with
    a mean of 7.3. Middle latitude A index was 11, 6, 5, 11, 5, 6, and
    11, with a mean of 7.9.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.20-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Jun 9 14:14:39 2023
    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP023
    ARLP023 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP23
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 23 ARLP023
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA June 9, 2023
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP023
    ARLP023 Propagation de K7RA

    Solar activity was up this week, with the average daily sunspot
    number increasing from 133.7 to 139, and average daily solar flux
    from 155.3 to 166.8.

    Average daily planetary A index stayed the same at 7.3, and average
    middle latitude A index went from 7.9 to 8.6.

    Predicted solar flux doesn't show any improvement, with peaks at 170
    on June 23-25 and July 20-21.

    The forecast shows solar flux at 168, 163, 157, 160, 157, 153, 160
    and 150 on June 9-16, 155 on June 17-20, then 160 and 165 on June
    21-22, 170 on June 23-25, then 168, 165 and 162 on June 26-28, 160
    on June 29 through July 4, then 155, 150 and 145 on July 5-7, then
    140, 135, 140, 143, 145 and 150 on July 8-13, and 155 on July 14-17.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8, 5, 10 and 8 on June 9-12, 5 on
    June 13-17, then 22, 15, 12 and 10 on June 18-21, 5 on June 22-26,
    then 10, 12, 5 and 5 on June 27-30, then 8, 12 and 8 on July 1-3,
    and 5 on July 4-7, then 10, 12 and 8 on July 8-10, and 5 on July
    11-14, then 22. 15. 12 and 10 on July 15-18.

    In some previous bulletins I was reporting 10 meter propagation
    observed with FT8 only into Florida from my QTH in Seattle, and also
    into Mexico at a similar distance.

    Recently on 10 meters I am seeing propagation into VK/ZL, and in
    North America mostly into Southern California, Nevada, Utah and
    Arizona. Some seasonal variation, I suppose.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - June 8, 2023 from OK1HH:

    "In the last seven days, solar activity has remained at a slightly
    elevated level, with daily C-class flares and a few M-class flares.
    This, together with the decrease in geomagnetic activity, has
    resulted in a gradual increase in the daily maximum of the highest
    usable frequencies of the F2 ionospheric layer. At the same time,
    however, the attenuation in the lower ionospheric layers grew, which
    manifested as earlier morning closures and later evening openings of
    the longer shortwave bands.

    "Particle clouds from CMEs during solar flares mostly did not reach
    Earth - with one exception: on 7 June at 2224 UTC, the solar wind
    speed jumped from 340 to 380 km/s. For a short time, the Earth's
    magnetic field activity increased, usually only to K=3.

    "The situation was further complicated by the sporadic-E layer,
    whose season is approaching its peak.

    "Inhomogeneities (non-uniformities) in the sporadic-E layer appeared
    quite frequently and extended reflections were observed in the
    ionograms.

    "As a consequence, the scattering of electromagnetic waves was as
    well manifested as attenuation. We are talking about the ionosphere
    of the northern hemisphere of the Earth. Here we will wait for the
    improvement when Summer ends there - which fortunately will be much
    earlier than Summer ends in the troposphere."

    While searching for something else, I ran across this article from
    the RSGB:

    http://bit.ly/45TjWuA

    Mike, W9NY wrote:

    "Having lived through multiple sunspot cycles since I was first
    licensed in 1955, I cannot believe that 10 meters is nearly dead,
    and 15 meters is minimally open. Nothing on 6 meters either.

    "I discussed this with my cousin who is an astrophysicist at Oxford
    who basically said, 'there are a lot of factors.' I'm just wondering
    what our ham radio gurus think. I would have expected phenomenal
    propagation but there is very little. Might this be related to
    atomic/chemical changes in the Earth's ionosphere?"

    I offered the WA4TTK Solar Data Plotting Utility as a record of
    sunspot and solar flux data going back to 1989.

    It can be updated weekly with a plain text file of the latest
    propagation bulletin.

    The data file can then be imported to any spreadsheet program for
    analysis and custom graphing.

    http://www.craigcentral.com/sol.asp

    A new video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/-ElKuld9xW8

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for June 1 through 7, 2023 were 143, 147, 112, 110,
    151, 133, and 177, with a mean of 139. 10.7 cm flux was 163.9,
    162.3, 164.6, 168.3, 169.2, 171.8, and 167.2, with a mean of 166.8.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 13, 5, 5, 11, 5, 7, and 5, with a
    mean of 7.3. Middle latitude A index was 14, 8, 5, 11, 6, 10, and 6,
    with a mean of 8.6.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.20-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Jun 16 09:48:00 2023
    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP024
    ARLP024 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP24
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 24 ARLP024
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA June 16, 2023
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP024
    ARLP024 Propagation de K7RA

    At 2256 UTC on June 16 the Australian Space Weather Forecast Centre
    issued a geomagnetic warning: "The solar wind speed on UT day 15-Jun
    has increased as the Earth entered a coronal hole wind stream after
    15/0545UT. Increased geomagnetic activity is expected for 16-Jun
    with isolated periods of G1-Minor level activity."

    Earlier in the day I checked the NOAA planetary K index page, and it
    showed a jump from K index of about 1.8 at 1200 UTC to about 4.1 at
    1500 and again at 1800 UTC, then about 4.5 at 2100 UTC and 5.5 at
    0000 UTC on June 16. At 0300 UTC it was down a bit to 5.

    See, https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index .

    Solar activity declined this week, with average daily sunspot
    numbers dropping from 139 to 122, while average daily solar flux
    decreased from 166.8 to 154.8. This compares the current reporting
    week of June 8-14 against the previous seven days.

    Average daily planetary A index decreased from 7.3 to 5.7, and
    average daily middle latitude A index from 8.6 to 6.7.

    On June 14 Spaceweather.com reported two new sunspot groups emerging
    across the Sun's southeastern horizon.

    Forecasters Cundiff and Trost of the U.S. Air Force 557th Weather
    Wing predict solar flux at 155 on June 16-17, 160 on June 18-19,
    then 155, 160 and 165 on June 20-22, 170 on June 23-25, then 168,
    165 and 162 on June 26-28, 160 on June 29 through July 4, 165 on
    July 5, 170 on July 6-8, then 155, 157, 153 and 160 on July 9-12,
    150 on July 13-14, 155 on July 15-17, then 160 and 165 on July
    18-19, and 170 on July 20-22.

    Predicted planetary A index is 18, 12 and 8 on June 16-18, 5 on June
    19-20, 8 on June 21-22, 5 on June 23-26, 12 on June 27-28, 5 on June
    29-30, then 12 and 8 on July 1-2, 5 on July 3-7, 12 on July 8-10,
    then 5, 5, and 12 on July 11-13, and 10 on July 14-15, and 5 on July
    16-23.

    These predictions look great for ARRL Field Day, which is June
    24-25. Why? Solar flux peaks at 170 on June 23-25, and the predicted
    planetary A index is a nice quiet 5 on June 22-26. Next week we will
    present an updated forecast just prior to Field Day weekend.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere June 16 - June 22, 2023 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    "The first half of June was quieter than May, both on the Sun and in
    the Earth's magnetosphere and ionosphere.

    "However, helioseismic maps of the far side of the Sun showed a
    number of large active regions, probably sunspots. We therefore
    expected an increase in activity. But that's not likely to happen
    until a week from now.

    "Even so, there were some rather unexpected eruptions of moderate
    magnitude during the local midday, which triggered a SWF (Shortwave
    Fading) that could have broken the QSO in the longer half of the
    shortwave band.

    "Meanwhile, we observed a coronal hole in the solar equator region
    that crossed the central meridian on June 12.

    "Associated with it is the co-rotating interaction region (CIR),
    which are the transition zones between the slow and fast solar wind
    streams. Since the accumulation of solar plasma in the solar wind
    results in structures that are similar to the arrival of a CME, we
    expected a geomagnetic storm on the evening of 15 June UTC. The
    estimate was quite accurate - the disturbance began at 1500 UTC.

    "We can expect the geomagnetic field to be active for a few more
    days, including smaller storms."

    K6LMN wrote:

    "It was great on 6m last weekend. I was only on SSB on 6m, but I
    understand it was open all over on FT8. I believe the openings were
    caused by summer E-skip, not F2. I worked many, many stations in
    your grid square. Roger K6LMN in DM04sb Los Angeles."

    He sent this to N0JK:

    "We on the West Coast were finally treated to some decent E-skip on
    6 meters SSB and CW (do not know about FT8). The June VHF Contest
    was just great Saturday and Sunday afternoons into early evening,
    Pacific Daylight time. Before this contest the band out here has
    been fairly quiet.

    "So briefly, I was K6LMN/Limited Rover in DM03 DM04 all around LA.
    I had a tight schedule with many social engagements plus two
    funerals to attend. I could not get too serious with heavy artillery
    or going to 5,000+ ft. mountaintops. For 6m I simply used my Larsen
    5 ft. magmount on the car roof. The rig was my old IC-706IIG with
    only 90 watts SSB. I was also on 2m, 1-1/4m, and 70 cm.

    "Most DX contacts were on both days up to Oregon, Washington, Idaho,
    Montana, BC, and Alberta. But the surprise was Sunday early evening.
    Best 2 way DX was N9XG in EN60 (Indiana) and K9CT in EN50 (Illinois)
    with 1 hour to go before contest close. They were like 5 by 5 on
    peaks on SSB. I am sure all this big DX was double hop summer
    E-skip.

    "A surprise was VA6AN way up in Canada popping in/out on SSB with
    peaks up to 5 by 5 Sunday eve about 6:30 pm local time. However, the
    QRM was horrible (my whip is omnidirectional) so he did not work me.

    "I worked K7YO up in CN85 (his alternate QTH) and he said he was
    getting into Florida on SSB or CW or FT8 on 6M. Maybe triple hop
    E-skip?

    "I am unhappy that us West Coasters are not getting any F2 so far on
    6m in Solar Cycle 25. I am 85 years old, licensed in 1955 and was
    lucky to enjoy the all-time best F2 openings on 10m and 6m (AM) back
    in the Golden Days in 1956-1958 in Solar Cycle 19. Incredible!"

    N0JK sent a note on June 12 that he worked IK5YJY on 6 meter FT8. He
    also wrote: "6M Es all weekend and 2M Es Sunday eve for the ARRL VHF
    contest. By the way, you had a station (W9NY) comment about poor
    conditions on 6M in last week's bulletin. Last weekend was awesome.
    I made 3 JA contacts with 10w and a 3 el yagi from KS.

    "Today A71VV (Qatar) was in to Northeast KS around 1400z."

    Check out the images on the A71VV page on QRZ.com.

    Scotty, W7PSK sent a note on June 12 listing countries worked on 6
    meter FT8: Balearic Islands, France, Spain, England and Canada.

    An image of the International Space Station over a sunspot:

    https://bit.ly/3NgsByW

    A video too:

    https://bit.ly/43Em3B1

    A study of the Sun's coldest region:

    https://bit.ly/3X6ErQu

    More sunspots.

    https://bit.ly/3Nt5Ys6

    Another breathless warning from South Asia about flares:

    https://bit.ly/42Rt2FG

    This weekend is the 64th annual CW weekend of the All Asian DX
    Contest. See the JARL web site for rules:

    https://bit.ly/43GPrXq

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins

    Sunspot numbers for June 8 through 14, 2023 were 149, 152, 116, 116,
    116, 98, and 107, with a mean of 122. 10.7 cm flux was 168.5, 164.3,
    161.2, 153.8, 146.1, 146.3, and 143.5, with a mean of 154.8.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 4, 5, 9, 6, 6, and 5, with a
    mean of 5.7. Middle latitude A index was 6, 6, 4, 10, 8, 8, and 5,
    with a mean of 6.7.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.20-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Jun 23 11:20:40 2023
    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP025
    ARLP025 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP25
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 25 ARLP025
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA June 23, 2023
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP025
    ARLP025 Propagation de K7RA

    Sunspot numbers and solar flux rose this week. There were two new
    sunspot groups on June 15, another on June 17 and one more on June
    18, three more on June 19, two more on June 20 and another on June
    21.

    Average daily sunspot number increased from 122 to 143, and average
    daily solar flux rose from 154.8 to 165.4.

    Average daily planetary A index jumped from 5.7 to 15.4, while the
    middle latitude numbers increased from 6.7 to 13.1.

    Predicted solar flux is 180 on June 23-24, 185 on June 25-27, 180 on
    June 28, 175 on June 29 through July 1, 180 on July 2-3, 175 on July
    4-5, 170 on July 6-10, then 165 on July 11, 160 on July 12-13, 165
    on July 14-15, 160 and 155 on July 16-17, 160 on July 18-19, 165 on
    July 20-24, 170 on July 25, 175 on July 26-28, and 180 on July
    29-30.

    Predicted planetary A index is 14, 10 and 8 on June 23-25, then 5,
    5, and 12 on June 26-28, then 5, 5, and 12 again on June 29 through
    July 1, 8 on July 2, 5 on July 3-7, 12 on July 8, 5 on July 9-11,
    then a dramatic increase to 20 and 30 on July 12-13, 8 on July
    14-15, and 12 on July 16-17, 10 on July 18, 5 on July 19-23, 12 on
    July 24-25, 5 on July 26-27, 12 and 8 on July 28-29, and 5 on July
    30 through August 3.

    These predictions are from forecasters Liming and Dethlefsen of the
    US Air Force 557th Weather Wing at Offutt AFB.

    See https://bit.ly/3qRNJnr

    So, what does this forecast show for ARRL Field Day, which is this
    weekend?

    Geomagnetic numbers are a bit more unsettled than what was shown in
    last week's bulletin, which had an A index of 5 for Friday through
    Sunday. The latest shows 14, 10 and 8. Predicted solar flux looks
    excellent, at 180, 180 and 185.

    Of course, Field Day does not begin until Saturday, but here we also
    include data for the day prior.

    X1.1 solar flare:

    https://bit.ly/3CI0OCA

    Another report from South Asia regarding solar flares as some sort
    of existential threat. Don't worry. Nothing terrifying about what
    they report, but there is a nice description of what the SOHO
    observatory does.

    https://bit.ly/444VhSk

    https://soho.nascom.nasa.gov

    Reader David Moore shared this video:

    https://www.space.com/earth-sunlight-dance-solstice-video

    Don't know why, but no weekly report from OK1HH this time around.

    On Thursday I attended an online event, the "Space Weather
    Enterprise Forum," thanks to a tip from K6PFA.

    Most of the sessions concerned threats from solar flares, but there
    was great commentary from Bill Murtaugh of NOAA's Space Weather
    Prediction Center.

    He noted that the current solar cycle should peak in summer 2024
    instead of 2025 and will peak much stronger than the consensus
    forecast from earlier in the cycle. He also noted that increased
    flare activity always occurs in the years following a sunspot cycle
    peak.

    John Dudley, Managing Director of Flight Operations at American
    Airlines gave an interesting presentation about how space weather
    affects routing of international flights.

    He mentioned their expert on space weather at the airline, and I
    looked him up. Yes, a ham, KC1ENP. Could not find an email address
    for him, so I sent a QSL card to make contact.

    Thanks to https://spaceweather.com/ for this fascinating article about
    setting up a personal space weather station. It is under the
    heading, "A New Way To Detect Solar Flares":

    https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/15/1403/2023/

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins

    Sunspot numbers for June 15 through 21, 2023 were 112, 120, 110,
    133, 181, 155, and 190, with a mean of 143. 10.7 cm flux was 153.1,
    157.2, 158.1, 164.1, 168.8, 180.1, and 176.4, with a mean of 165.4.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 24, 38, 8, 10, 10, 10, and 8,
    with a mean of 15.4. Middle latitude A index was 17, 24, 8, 12, 9,
    13, and 9, with a mean of 13.1.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.20-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Jun 30 14:24:42 2023
    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP026
    ARLP026 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP26
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 26 ARLP026
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA June 30, 2023
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP026
    ARLP026 Propagation de K7RA

    Space Weather News sent this alert on June 29:

    "BIG SUNSPOT ALERT: One of the biggest sunspots in years is directly
    facing Earth. AR3354 is 10 times wider than Earth and about 1/3rd
    the size of the historical Carrington sunspot. It's so big,
    observers in Europe and North America are seeing it naked eye
    through the smoke of Canadian wildfires. Earth-directed flares are
    likely in the days ahead."

    See https://spaceweather.com/ for continuing coverage.

    Conditions were favorable over the Field Day weekend, with the
    exception of a brief period when the planetary K index rose to 5 on
    Saturday night. This is mentioned in the commentary by OK1HH which
    follows.

    There were five new sunspot groups on June 23, two more on June 24,
    another on June 26 and another on June 27.

    Average daily sunspot numbers were up, and solar flux was down.

    Average daily sunspot number rose from 143 to 170, and average daily
    solar flux declined slightly from 165.4 to 160.3.

    This is unexpected, because we normally see these values track
    together.

    Predicted solar flux is 150 on June 30 through July 5, 155 on July
    6, 135 on July 7-8, then 145, 155, 160, 165 and 170 on July 9-13,
    175 on July 14-18, 170 on July 19-21, then 160, 150, 145, 145, 140
    and 135 on July 22-27, then 130 on July 28 through August 1, 135 on
    August 2-4, then 145, 155, and 165 on August 5-7. Flux values may
    continue to rise to a peak of 175 before mid-August.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8, 15 and 10 on June 30 through July
    2, 5 on July 3-7, 12 and 8 on July 8-9, 5 on July 10-11, then a
    stormy 20 and 30 on July 12-13, 8 on July 14-23, 12 on July 24-25, 8
    on July 26-27, 12 on July 28-29, 8 on July 30, 5 on July 31 through
    August 3, 12 and 8 on August 4-5, 5 on August 6-7, then 20 and 30
    again on August 8-9. Note that recurring stormy conditions are
    predicted at one solar rotation, which is about 27.5 days, following
    the July 12-13 prediction.

    The above predictions are from forecasters Thompson and Kiser at the
    USAF space weather group.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere June 30 to July 06, 2023 from F.K. Janda OK1HH.

    "In the solar X-ray field during June we could observe the most
    significant solar flare so far: X1 in the active region AR3341. It
    happened on June 20 at 1709 UTC near the southeastern limb of the
    solar disk. In the region where the Sun was high, it caused the
    Dellinger Effect, https://bit.ly/3NA61kT .

    "The same sunspot group was also the source of the M4.8 flare two
    days later. It ejected a CME, but not toward Earth.

    "Nevertheless, its passage close to Earth probably caused an
    increase in geomagnetic activity on the evening of 24 June.
    Theoretically, it could also have been a CME from the X1 eruption of
    20 June.

    "On June 26, we were surprised by sunspot group AR3354 just above
    the solar equator and east of the central meridian. It did not exist
    the day prior. Over the next two days its area grew to ten times the
    size of the Earth, making it easily observable by the naked eye.

    "Significantly, its magnetic configuration changed to
    beta-gamma-delta, which is enough energy for powerful solar flares.

    "The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled so far.

    "AR3354 will be pointed directly toward Earth in the next few days,
    so it looks like the next disturbance could begin on July 1. And of
    course, a possible large flare could cause a Dellinger Effect
    throughout the whole HF spectrum."

    Pat, W5THT wrote:

    "I have been an active ham since 1956 and on the Mississippi coast
    since 1971. This year has strengthened my belief in an old
    observation.

    "There is/was a dome of high pressure that moved from over Texas to
    now over me. Before it moved east, I was able to take part in the 6
    meter propagation to Europe.

    "Since it moved over me, the DX Maps page shows a gap in the DX
    propagation from northern Florida to central Louisiana. This is not
    the first time I have seen it happen, but the new generation of TV
    weather persons presented a picture of the dome of high pressure
    that coincided with my propagation observations. Suspicions
    confirmed?

    "Years ago, on 2 meters I noticed that propagation followed weather
    fronts up the east coast. Thanks for reading this and perhaps
    someone younger than me has already done the research."

    Jon Jones, N0JK wrote:

    "Wow -- a surprise opening on 6 meter FT8 to Brazil June 25!

    "A CME impact at 1900 UTC may have boosted the TEP MUF Sunday
    afternoon. That and some help with sporadic-E -- opening to Brazil
    on 6 meters from North America during the summer.

    "Had been out with our dog. Saw WQ0P PSK flags for PY2XB. Turned on
    radio at home with dipole. PY2XB was loud. Really loud. Also copied
    PY5CC. He spotted me as well, but no QSO. PY2XB in for almost half
    an hour. Like a pipeline. Saw him work a few 5s and 0s. KC0CF worked
    CE2SV. With higher solar activity, the TEP zone still works even in
    our summer. This mode works for D2UY (Angola), 3B9FR (Rodrigues
    Island in Indian Ocean), and ZL."

    An article on Solar Cycle 25 peak and nice images:

    https://bit.ly/3ps6iOI

    Understanding Space Weather: A Glossary of Terms:

    https://bit.ly/3XuimeQ

    "Astro Bob" on that big sunspot:

    https://bit.ly/46rC3YU

    Frequent contributor David Moore shared this fascinating article
    comparing the current big sunspot with the one that launched the
    infamous Carrington Event 164 years ago.

    https://bit.ly/3CUGZYC

    Another Solar Cycle article:

    https://bit.ly/3XvIk1y

    Yet another Carrington Event article:

    https://bit.ly/3XuSe3o

    Article about Solar max:

    https://bit.ly/44jM5tP

    A Houston Chronicle article on solar max:

    https://bit.ly/445vtWf

    Flares and how they are measured:

    https://bit.ly/3prvtRs

    A video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, from last week:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sfXz9nk6NDs

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins

    Sunspot numbers for June 22 through 28, 2023 were 176, 194, 200,
    180, 158, 141, and 141, with a mean of 170. 10.7 cm flux was 173.2,
    169.7, 160.8, 154.8, 157.7, 151.2, and 154.9, with a mean of 160.3.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 9, 16, 15, 11, 8, and 8, with
    a mean of 10.7. Middle latitude A index was 8, 9, 16, 10, 11, 7, and
    8, with a mean of 9.9.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.20-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Sat Jul 8 06:43:13 2023
    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP027
    ARLP027 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP27
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 27 ARLP027
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA July 7, 2023
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP027
    ARLP027 Propagation de K7RA

    The average daily sunspot number for June, 2023 was the highest in
    21 years, according to Spaceweather.com.

    From a July 3 email alert from Spaceweather.com:

    "SUNSPOT COUNTS HIT A 21-YEAR HIGH: It's official: The average
    sunspot number in June 2023 hit a 21-year high. Solar Cycle 25 has
    shot past its predecessor, Solar Cycle 24, and may be on pace to
    rival some of the stronger cycles of the 20th century."

    Could we see another Cycle 19, the biggest in recorded history, even
    back before the birth of radio?

    Not too long ago, we heard that this cycle should peak in summer
    2025. Later that was revised to 2024. Now I am seeing occasional
    references to a cycle peak at the end of this year.

    From my own records, average daily sunspot numbers for April through
    June 2023 were 93.7, 125.8 and 143.9, a nice upward trend.

    Some popular news outlets seem confused by the difference between
    sunspot number and number of sunspots, and have quoted another
    higher average.

    Here is the difference. If they are just counting the total number
    of sunspots for the month, this is far different from average daily
    sunspot numbers. The sunspot number is somewhat subjective, but it
    gets ten points for each sunspot group, and one point for each
    sunspot in those groups.

    But I stand by my numbers. They are all from NOAA and appear at the
    end of each bulletin.

    But they may be referencing International Sunspot Number, which may
    be different from the SESC numbers from NOAA.

    Here is an example of confusing sunspot numbers with number of
    sunspots: https://bit.ly/3NCQCAl

    This one is also confusing, saying there were 163.4 sunspots in
    June. https://bit.ly/3PMu6Ym

    But what does this mean? It could be either 163 or 164 sunspots,
    but not a fractional number, unless it expresses an average. The
    minimum sunspot number is 11. This would be one sunspot group
    containing one spot. They are always whole, not fractional
    integers.

    There was one new sunspot region (group) on June 30, three more on
    July 1, one more on July 2, another on July 4, and one more on July
    5.

    Sunspot and solar flux data again this week did not track together.
    Average daily sunspot number declined from 170 to 126.1, while
    average daily solar flux rose slightly from 160.3 to 164.5.

    Geomagnetic indicators were lower, with average daily planetary A
    index declining from 10.7 to 7.3, and middle latitude averages from
    9.9 to 8.

    Predicted solar flux is 155 on July 7, 150 on July 8 to 10, then 155
    on July 11, 160 on July 12 to 13, 175 on July 14 to 18, 170 on July
    19 to 21, 160 on July 22 and 23, 155 on July 24 and 25, 160 on July
    26 and 27, 165 on July 28 and 29, then 170, 170 and 165 on July 30
    through August 1, 155 on August 2 to 6, then 160, 165 and 170 on
    August 7 to 9, and 175 on August 10 to 14.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5, 12 and 8 on July 7 to 9, 5 on July
    10 and 11, then 20 and 30 on July 12 and 13, 8 on July 14 to 22, 5
    on July 23 to 30, 8 on July 31 through August 1, then 5 on August 2
    to 4, 12 and 8 on August 5 and 6, then 5, 20 and 30 on August 7 to
    9, and 8 on August 10 to 18.

    Note those big numbers are about one solar rotation apart, which is
    about 27.5 days.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere for July 6, 2023 from F. K. Janda, OK1HH.

    When the current 25th solar cycle began in December 2019, solar
    astronomers thought it would be a weak cycle similar to its
    immediate predecessor, solar cycle 24. But now we have a twenty-one
    year peak. And we expect a continued increase for about two more
    years.

    The misfortune is that ongoing global changes are reducing the
    ionization rate of the ionosphere. Yet the current conditions for
    shortwave or decameter wave propagation do not match the amount of
    solar activity - they are worse.

    But that's not all. Not only is solar cycle 25 likely to rival some
    of the more powerful cycles of the 20th century, but we're likely to
    see even more powerful solar flares and magnetic storms. History
    repeats itself cyclically, and we need only think of the great
    Halloween storm of 2003, including the strongest solar flare ever
    recorded in X-ray (X45).

    The giant sunspot group AR3354 (only about four times smaller than
    the giant sunspot group of early September 1859) made its last
    appearance on July 2 with an X-class flare. Two days later it
    eclipsed.

    We won't lose the source of the stronger flares, however - the
    growing AR3359, with its Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration, crossed
    the central meridian toward active western longitudes on July 6 and
    will continue to grow. With its predicted higher activity, we could
    see an increase in the Earth's magnetic field activity as early as
    the middle of next week.

    Tamitha Skov, from July 1. https://youtu.be/HR8mm30oxOQ

    Blackout http://bit.ly/46tTRT8 https://bit.ly/3rhbjdz

    Stormy weekend? https://bit.ly/3pDrT6R

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins

    Sunspot numbers for June 29 through July 5, 2023 were 112, 187, 119,
    126, 117, 121, and 101, with a mean of 126.1. 10.7 cm flux was
    162.2, 158.6, 165.5, 170.2, 173.2, 167.2, and 154.6, with a mean of
    164.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 17, 8, 5, 5, 5, 4, and 7,
    with a mean of 7.3. Middle latitude A index was 13, 8, 6, 8, 7, 5,
    and 9, with a mean of 8.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.20-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Jul 14 18:17:45 2023
    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP028
    ARLP028 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP28
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 28 ARLP028
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA July 14, 2023
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP028
    ARLP028 Propagation de K7RA

    "GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 0713UT/13 JULY 2023 BY
    THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

    A glancing CME impact is expected late on 13-July and another CME
    impact is expected early on 15-July. These impacts present the
    possibility of geomagnetic storm activity over 13-15 July."

    We saw a welcome rise in solar activity this reporting week, July
    6-12.

    Referencing the previous seven days, average daily sunspot numbers
    rose from 126.1 to 181.9, while average daily solar flux increased
    from 164.5 to 179.4. On July 13 the solar flux was 202.9, well above
    the average for the previous seven days.

    Geomagnetic indicators did not change much, average planetary A
    index going from 7.3 to 8.6 and average daily middle latitude A
    index from 8 to 8.1.

    The most active day was July 7 when University of Alaska's college A
    index was 40. The middle latitude A index on that day was only 11.
    The college A index is from a magnetometer in Fairbanks.

    What is the outlook for the next month?

    Predicted solar flux looks great over the next few days, at 200,
    202, 198, 200, and 204 on July 14-18, 202 on July 19-21, 160 on July
    22-23, 155 on July 24-25, 160 on July 26-27, 165 on July 28-29, 170
    on July 30-31, 165 on August 1-4, 170 on August 5, 175 on August
    6-7, 170 on August 8, then 165 on August 9-11, 170 on August 12, 175
    on August 13-14, 170 on August 15-17, and 160 on August 18-19.

    Predicted planetary A index is 10 on July 14, 5 on July 15 through
    August 2, then 10, 8 and 5 on August 3-5, then 8, 8, 5, 8 and 8 on
    August 6-10, 5 on August 11 through the end of the month.

    On July 12, Spaceweather.com reported:

    "A new hyperactive sunspot is producing M-class solar flares every
    few hours. This is causing shortwave radio blackouts around all
    longitudes of our planet. If current trends continue, an X-flare
    could be in the offing."

    See Spaceweather.com for updates.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere July 14-20, 2023 from OK1HH.

    "Over the past week, we were surprised by two large groups of spots
    that appeared on the eastern limb of the solar disk.

    The first of these, AR3363, emerged in the southeast. Although it
    remained large, there was nothing significant going on. Its opposite
    was AR 3372 a few days later, which produced moderate-sized flares
    almost daily.

    In both cases, helioseismic echoes from the sun's far side suggested
    that it may be the leading edge of a large active region.

    But there was no indication that these would be areas with a
    diametrically different type of activity.

    The images of the two groups of spots were large enough to be
    observed by the Mars rover Perseverance. Because of Mars' position,
    it saw them a few days earlier than a terrestrial observer. For the
    record: Perseverance observes the Sun daily, but mainly so that it
    can tell from the drop in brightness that a Martian dust storm is
    approaching.

    AR3372 activity is increasing, while on July 11 and 12 several
    M-class solar flares (some with CMEs) have already occurred (X-class
    flare appeared to be imminent). In particular, it was almost certain
    that the Earth's magnetic field activity would increase in the
    following days. The probability of magnetic storms increased
    significantly as AR3372 rotated more and more toward the Earth."

    Carl, K9LA had comments on the OK1HH report from last week.

    "There have been many papers in recent years that have looked at the
    trends in ionospheric parameters over the past decades. Although the
    changes are small, they do show up in ionosonde data after much math
    to eliminate solar activity and geomagnetic field activity. These
    results show both positive and negative trends in the F2 region
    electron density, likely due to neutral atmosphere dynamics and
    electrodynamics that could give regional differences.

    An interesting paper in 2008 Geophysical Research Letters modeled
    the increased levels of CO2 (global warming) in the atmosphere
    versus the impact on the ionosphere.

    See: https://bit.ly/3OaThCC

    They used 2000 as the baseline with 365 ppmv of CO2, and doubled the
    amount of CO2 for the year 2100. Their results showed that electron
    densities in the E and F1 region would increase a couple percent in
    2100 while the height of the E region peak would decrease a couple
    km. In the F2 region, the electron density would decrease by several
    percent in 2100 while the height of the F2 region would decrease 10
    or so km."

    Thanks to reader David Moore for this, on aurora hype:

    https://bit.ly/44ovzsh

    Flare video (with music.)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aghiHieqCZQ

    Huge sunspot: https://bit.ly/44EcqTz

    Tamitha Skov reports: https://youtu.be/nwtCBH04bIg

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins

    Sunspot numbers for July 6 through 12, 2023 were 149, 147, 167, 183,
    181, 227, and 219, with a mean of 181.9. 10.7 cm flux was 157.6,
    161.4, 160.5, 179.2, 190.6, 213.5, and 193.3, with a mean of 179.4.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 18, 8, 4, 5, 8, and 6, with a
    mean of 8.6. Middle latitude A index was 11, 16, 6, 4, 6, 8, and 6,
    with a mean of 8.1.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.20-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Jul 21 18:05:00 2023
    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP029
    ARLP029 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP29
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 29 ARLP029
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA July 21, 2023
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP029
    ARLP029 Propagation de K7RA

    Average daily sunspot numbers declined, but average daily solar flux
    increased. Sunspot averages were 181.9 last week, and 130.6 this
    week. Average daily solar flux increased from 179.4 to 190.5.

    Two new sunspot groups emerged on July 14, three more on July 17 and
    another two on July 19.

    Average daily planetary and middle latitude A index were both 12.9
    this week, rising from 8.6 and 8.1.

    Predicted solar flux is 185 on July 21-23, then 180, 178, 175 and
    170 on July 24-27, 165 on July 28-29, 170 on July 30-31, 165 on
    August 1-4, then 170, 175, 175 and 170 on August 5-8, 165 on August
    9-11, 170 on August 12, 175 on August 13-14, and 170 on August
    15-19, 160 on August 20-23, 165 on August 24-25, then 170 on August
    26-27 and 165 on August 28-31.

    Predicted planetary A index is 20, 12, 8, 12 and 10 on July 21-25, 5
    on July 26 through August 2, then 10 and 8 on August 3-4, 5 on
    August 5-14, then 12, 8 and 8 on August 15-17, and 5 on August
    18-29.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere for July 20, 2023 from OK1HH.

    "We've seen another seven days of mostly moderate solar activity,
    with almost daily eruptions of moderate magnitude on the Sun. Some
    of these have been the source of CMEs. If the Earth has been
    affected by them, a geomagnetic disturbance followed, with a drop in
    MUF and a worsening of HF propagation in the process.

    As predicted, the expected CME hit the Earth's magnetic field on the
    afternoon of 14 July (as part of the Bastille Day celebrations, but
    not nearly as strongly as in 2000).

    Another CME left the Sun on 14 July, and yet another on July 15.
    Because the cloud of later ejected solar plasma was faster, it
    cannibalized the previous CME. Together, they hit the Earth on July
    18.

    But by then AR3363 had already produced a significant long-lasting
    M6-class solar flare, and energetic protons accelerated by this
    flare reached the Earth and caused a radiation storm. Although MUFs
    were quite high, HF conditions were adversely affected by frequent
    occurrences of attenuation.

    Another CME hit the Earth on 20 July, registered by the Earth's
    magnetic field at 1708 UTC.

    Further developments were predicted up to G1 to G2 class geomagnetic
    storms, with a small probability also of G3, but by then this report
    will have been completed and sent out.

    Finally, just a little note on the consequences of global change: it
    has been manifested in the last eleven-year cycles, in the Earth's
    troposphere it is the result of warming, but in the ionosphere it is
    rather the opposite. It has been the subject of a number of
    scientific papers in recent years.

    It is crucial for us, for amateur radio practice, that the current
    MUFs are lower than those calculated from sunspot counts for most of
    the twentieth century. Therefore, we should input Ri (or solar flux
    SFU) into forecast programs lower than what is currently measured
    and published.

    F.K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH http://ok1hh.nagano.cz/ "

    News from N8II in West Virginia.

    "The bands are in much better shape than most hams realize; activity
    levels are normally quite low this summer. In the IARU contest I
    observed 15M open to Europe through 0300 UTC and I had QSOs with
    Indonesia, China, Nepal, Japan, Central/Western Siberia, Kazakhstan,
    and the Philippines in the 2300-0300 UTC period.

    I copied GR2HQ (Great Britain HQ station) on 10M CW at 0140 UTC. At
    1100 UTC on 15M EU and Central/West Asia were very loud and I
    started running a pile up on CW.

    The Far East was also in on 15M around 1400 UTC Saturday when I
    worked a loud Japanese station.

    During the evening/night EU signals were extremely loud on 20M. I
    also worked a few EU on 10M 1300-1400 UTC Saturday thanks to
    Sporadic E and also caught Z30HQ (Macedonia HQ) on 10M CW Sunday
    about 1130 UTC. I worked 697 QSOs concentrating on DX on the high
    bands in less than 12 hours with 100 W.

    Africa is workable on 10-15M well into our evening as are South
    Pacific stations.

    Sporadic E this year seems somewhat attenuated, but Es was good from
    here and great from the Central/Western USA during the June VHF
    contest. I made about 170 CW/SSB QSOs."

    CNN presented a smart piece on the sunspot cycle peaking sooner than
    expected. https://bit.ly/3rzNJJ6

    Double peaked flare. https://bit.ly/46ZoznE

    Astronomy club observes sunspots. https://bit.ly/46SaacR

    Aurora. https://bit.ly/44FxM2U

    Scientific American. https://bit.ly/3rHzGkB

    Early peak. https://bit.ly/44Aa7AF https://bit.ly/3rEa0Wj

    Cannibal eruption. https://bit.ly/3Q5dv1W

    Great video of eruption. https://youtu.be/YOzHHM4B4gA

    The latest from Space Weather Woman Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW.

    https://youtu.be/KsKDVOuboyw

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell
    us which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins

    Sunspot numbers for July 13 through 19, 2023 were 146, 141, 96, 99,
    149, 142, and 141, with a mean of 130.6. 10.7 cm flux was 202.9,
    180.6, 178.5, 184.3, 180, 218.5, and 188.9, with a mean of 190.5.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 20, 8, 10, 24, 16, and 5, with
    a mean of 12.9. Middle latitude A index was 9, 17, 9, 13, 19, 16,
    and 7, with a mean of 12.9.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.20-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Jul 28 17:07:21 2023
    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP030
    ARLP030 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP30
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 30 ARLP030
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA July 28, 2023
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP030
    ARLP030 Propagation de K7RA

    Average daily sunspot numbers declined slightly over the past week
    (July 20-26) to 128.1, compared to 130.6 over the previous seven
    days.

    Average daily solar flux declined significantly from 190.5 to 172.2.

    The solar flux forecast sees values at 165 and 162 on July 28-29,
    158 on July 30-31, then 155 on August 1-3, then 165, 170 and 175 on
    August 4-6, 180 on August 7-10, 175 on August 11-13, 180 on August
    14-15, 175 on August 16-18, 170 on August 19, then 165, 165 and 160
    on August 20-22, and 155 on August 23-26, 160 on August 27, 165 on
    August 28-30, 170 and 175 on August 31 through September 1, and 180
    on September 2-6.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on July 28-29, 15 and 10 on July
    30-31, 5 on August 1-3, 8 on August 4, 5 on August 5-9, 10 on August
    10, 8 on August 11-13, 5 on August 14-19, then 10, 8 and 5 on August
    20-22, 12 on August 23-24, 10 on August 25-26, 5 on August 27-29, 10
    and 8 on August 30-31, and 5 on September 1-5.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere -- July 27, 2023 from OK1HH.

    "The likelihood of more massive solar flares has slowly decreased in
    recent days as large groups of spots have fallen behind the western
    limb of the solar disk and the magnetic configuration of the
    remaining regions has become increasingly simple over the past few
    days.

    On July 20 and 21, two CMEs struck Earth's magnetic field in
    accordance with the prediction. However, both impacts were weak and
    did not produce even a minor geomagnetic storm.

    Another weak halo CME was expected to leave the Sun on 23 July at
    about 1530 UTC in a C5 class flare in spot group AR3376, coinciding
    with the outburst of a relatively nearby magnetic filament. The
    Earth's magnetic field detected its arrival at 0200 UTC on 26 July.
    The result was an increase in geomagnetic activity and a
    deterioration of shortwave propagation conditions. The disturbance
    actually started on 25 July at 2235 UTC, but it was not clear
    whether it was an early arrival of the same CME or another one that
    we did not detect.

    Note: since I will be abroad next week, I will not post the next
    comment on August 3, but on August 10."

    Sunspots, flares and aurora. https://bit.ly/44JxcRp

    Mars Rover sees the far side of the sun. https://bit.ly/3KbRV8b

    Rocket punches hole in ionosphere. https://bit.ly/3KceBFB

    Nearly five decades ago I witnessed the same thing, viewed from
    Marin County, California. It was a huge dramatic display, My friend
    had seen it before, and said it was created by a rocket launch from
    Vandenberg AFB in Southern California.

    Another CME. https://bit.ly/44LhRjx

    On July 27, Spaceweather.com sent this alert:

    "A STRONG FARSIDE CME JUST HIT SOLAR ORBITER: Europe's Solar Orbiter
    just got hit by the kind of CME that may have once caused a major
    power blackout on Earth. This time, Earth was not in the line of
    fire. It was a farside eruption that flew away from our planet.
    Maybe next time?"

    Massive flare? https://bit.ly/3Ya7OSC

    Latest from Dr. Tamitha Skov. https://youtu.be/cD5VbWvBXsE

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell
    us which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins

    Sunspot numbers for July 20 through 26, 2023 were 131, 121, 103,
    117, 141, 137, and 147, with a mean of 128.1 10.7 cm flux was
    184.3, 172.8, 174.4, 172.5, 165.1, 169, and 167.4, with a mean of
    172.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 13, 9, 6, 7, 11, and
    21, with a mean of 11. Middle latitude A index was 10, 11, 9, 5, 8,
    12, and 23, with a mean of 11.1.
    NNNN
    /EX
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    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (618:250/33)