ACUS11 KWNS 052035
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052034
NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-052230-

Mesoscale Discussion 2245
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0334 PM CDT Sat Sep 05 2026

Areas affected...western/central South Dakota into western/central
Nebraska and eastern Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 052034Z - 052230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated storms may produce marginally severe hail and
strong to severe wind this afternoon/evening.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are developing near the surface trough
across the central Plains. Modifying the 18z sounding from LBF shows
MLCIN has weakened but remains. Moderate instability was sampled
above the capping layer. Remaining MLCIN is also depicted in SPC
Mesoanalysis across much of the central Plains, though temperatures
warming into the mid 90s across western Nebraska and eastern
Colorado are slowly eroding the remaining cap. Deep layer flow is
generally weak, which will likely keep the organized severe
potential low. However, deep layer shear around 20-30 kts may
support a few stronger cores capable of marginally severe hail.
Large dew point depressions and steep lapse rates will favor outflow
dominant storms capable of a few instances of strong to severe wind.
Overall, severe potential looks to remain too isolated for watch
issuance.

..Thornton/Gleason.. 09/05/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9yJtMLzsQ78jYBCoG1mFZJ2zUzQVHMVWUwHyJt9XJCasgyiCGRfjdxUSXluDrhaUDP7f2kcLxU4mPSuMd-UIkjDDeNE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 39410352 41030377 42140364 42920356 45060320 45400295
45640247 45270123 44770090 44140078 44070082 43830063
43330034 42329983 41769988 40510035 39520239 39410352

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)