• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2243

    From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 5 20:05:00 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 052002
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 052001
    WVZ000-OHZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-052200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2243
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0301 PM CDT Sat Sep 05 2026

    Areas affected...eastern Illinois...southern Indiana...southern
    Ohio...and portions of central/eastern Kentucky

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 052001Z - 052200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated instances of strong to severe wind and marginally
    severe hail possible this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are re-developing across portions of the
    Ohio Valley this afternoon. Clearing skies behind morning convection
    has allowed for ample daytime heating/warming with temperatures in
    the low to mid 90s and moderate instability. Deep layer flow is
    generally weak across the region, which will likely limit a more
    organized severe threat. Nonetheless, the hot and moist air mass may
    support water loaded downdrafts and a few instances of strong to
    severe wind. Effective bulk shear around 25 kts along and north of a
    weak frontal boundary across the region may support a few instances
    of marginally severe hail. Overall, this threat is expected to
    remain too localized for watch issuance.

    ..Thornton/Gleason.. 09/05/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6aSWNwmXmSzSC4j61WBjkqe-iJpZiz0ezGqkbUKdBWh_Q3hkhRsKI1T0lgPxTMYdu6s7U-JzqleSaAlory6-KJro-4E$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...

    LAT...LON 39688229 39828282 40148497 40368671 39798803 38978864
    38218785 37448668 37058576 36748468 36598342 36988248
    37628198 38078178 39038188 39298194 39688229

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)