ACUS11 KWNS 051633
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051632
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-051830-

Mesoscale Discussion 2242
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 AM CDT Sat Sep 05 2026

Areas affected...Southern VA into NC and northern SC

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

Valid 051632Z - 051830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The damaging-wind threat is expected to increase this
afternoon. One or more watches will likely be needed.

DISCUSSION...Strong heating is underway from southern VA into much
of NC, south and east of ongoing convection from the central
Appalachians into central VA. Objective mesoanalyses and 12Z
regional soundings modified for recent surface obs suggest that
MLCAPE has already increased above 2000 J/kg across much of the
region, with weakening MLCINH and convective temperatures being
approached. Meanwhile, an MCV associated with the remnant MCS over central/eastern VA will approach the region from the northwest this
afternoon, accompanied by some increase in midlevel northwesterly
flow. The moderate to strong buoyancy, steep low-level lapse rates,
and sufficient low/midlevel flow will provide a favorable
environment for outflow-driven clusters capable of producing wind
damage. The strongest cells may also become capable of producing
isolated hail.

Details of storm evolution this afternoon remain somewhat uncertain.
The ongoing central Appalachians cluster may continue to pose some
threat of wind damage as it spreads southeastward. Even if it
weakens, redevelopment will be possible as the gust front moves into
an increasingly warm and unstable environment. Additional
development will also be possible farther east from southern VA into
northern NC, as CINH becomes negligible in the vicinity of a
developing differential heating zone. One or more Severe
Thunderstorm Watches will likely be needed this afternoon in
response to these threats.

..Dean/Gleason.. 09/05/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-jm4d7eiM6S6nU_a4btm9836heIZwQctPSzHsOZhJabHfCsnvl-E3Q3xR7CWabAF0Bb8x_Uz1SUM5OvtbIW9pN8U3no$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON 36998050 37137859 36947717 36737596 36347575 35827574
35197602 34617643 33777797 33987878 34407969 34518042
34698154 35048241 35508214 35848180 36178143 36998050

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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