• Lowell Forecast to turn towards W Hawaii

    From Mike Powell@1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 5 15:01:26 2026
    000
    WTPA34 PHFO 051441
    TCPCP4

    BULLETIN
    Hurricane Lowell Advisory Number 38
    NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026
    Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    500 AM HST Sat Sep 05 2026

    ...LOWELL FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY AND APPROACH THE
    WESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON MONDAY...
    ...INTERESTS IN HAWAII SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR LOWELL'S PROGRESS...


    SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...13.4N 162.6W
    ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM SSW OF LIHUE HAWAII
    ABOUT 625 MI...1010 KM SSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB...27.50 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

    Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of
    Lowell. Watches will likely be required for portions of the
    western main Hawaiian Islands and the Papahanaumokuakea Marine
    National Monument later today.


    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lowell was located
    near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 162.6 West. Lowell is moving
    toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the northwest
    is expected by tonight, followed by a faster motion toward the
    north and north-northeast on Sunday and Monday. On the forecast
    track, the center of Lowell will move across portions of the
    Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument, just to the west of the
    main Hawaiian Islands, Monday night.

    Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
    gusts. Lowell is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
    Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are possible during
    the next day or so, followed by a gradual weakening trend on Sunday
    and Monday.

    Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
    center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
    (260 km).

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 931 mb (27.50 inches).


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    Key messages for Lowell can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
    Discussion under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP4 and WMO header WTPA44
    PHFO.

    RAINFALL: Hurricane Lowell is expected to produce rainfall totals of
    3 to 6 inches, with maximum totals exceeding 10 inches possible, for
    Kauai and the Big Island. For Maui, 2 to 4 inches of rain is
    expected, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches possible. Across
    the remaining islands, rainfall of 1 to 2 inches with maximum
    amounts of 4 inches is possible. This rainfall may produce locally
    significant flash flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
    steep terrain.

    For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
    Lowell, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
    Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_cp4.shtml?rainqpf

    SURF: Swells from Lowell are likely to cause life-threatening surf
    and rip current conditions during the next several days across
    many of the Hawaiian islands. Please consult products from your
    local weather office.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

    $$
    Forecaster Berg
    NNN


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