ACUS11 KWNS 050549
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050548
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-050745-

Mesoscale Discussion 2239
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Sat Sep 05 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Dakotas...Far Southwest MN...Far Northeast
NE

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 050548Z - 050745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of large hail are
possible across the eastern Dakota tonight.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms coverage and intensity continues to
increase across the eastern Dakotas. These thunderstorms are
developing within a zone of low to mid-level warm-air advection
along the eastern periphery of an extensive low-level jet stretching
from western KS through the western Dakotas. The airmass across the
region is moderately to strongly unstable, with mesoanalysis
estimating MUCAPE ranging from 3500 J/kg over southeast SD to 1500
J/kg across southeast ND. This buoyancy gradient matches what was
observed by the regional 00Z soundings, where OAX sampled over 5000
J/kg of MUCAPE while ABR and BIS were closer to 2000 J/kg. A belt of
moderate to strong effective bulk shear extends from western ND into
southeast SD as well.

The resulting combination of buoyancy and shear will support
organized storm structures, and large hail will be possible with any
more mature updraft. Primary severe potential is expected over SD
where the strongest vertical shear exists. Overall severe
thunderstorm coverage is currently expected to stay isolated, likely
precluding the need for a watch. However, convective trends are
being monitored closely.

..Mosier.. 09/05/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-HXcsvkIOOyG63pZrODsEa38FhvGEcaXM5pg71IO30slcr4f1mj3w57f1qd3GUfplzhZEPaNALNpTUHXAPGdLcMova0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...BIS...LBF...

LAT...LON 45770030 47550086 47689824 45999653 43339602 42549789
43389897 44479951 45770030

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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