• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1301

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jun 15 18:58:34 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 151858
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 151858=20
    TXZ000-152100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1301
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0158 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

    Areas affected...Portions of Central Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 151858Z - 152100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A few strong to marginally severe gusts are possible this
    afternoon. A few damaging downbursts are possible as outflow
    boundaries collide.

    DISCUSSION...As the outflow from an earlier MCS continues into a
    strongly buoyant airmass in central Texas, a few strong to
    near-severe gusts have been measures from San Saba to Killeen and
    Waco (all 40-49 kts). Convection from the Gulf breeze front has also
    been propagating northward this afternoon. Given the low-level lapse
    rates and a signature for a localized 50+ kt winds on KGRK velocity
    data, additional strong to marginally severe gusts may still occur.
    There also will be some potential for strong to near-severe
    downburst winds as the remnant MCS outflow collides with outflow
    from Gulf breeze convection within the next couple hours.

    ..Wendt/Thompson.. 06/15/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_CqtZrg5G1_eX4j4SVmIoDaGzUNZM8tjLf97Y1pB2zq_FRd7pNzld8HofzkkOVyxndbu7Ql3h= bSXPDjaKj_qgeRpTFw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

    LAT...LON 30279888 30629920 31209955 31419927 31429855 31489755
    32129652 32149596 31699545 31159567 30529654 30179796
    30139852 30279888=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
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