ACUS02 KWNS 220601
SWODY2
SPC AC 220559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND IN PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...

...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe storms with hail and isolated severe gusts will be
possible on Friday across parts of the central and northern High
Plains, and in parts of the Intermountain West and central Rockies.

...Central and Northern High Plains...
An upper-level ridge will remain over the Great Plains on Friday. At
the surface, a north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level
moisture will be located across the central and northern Plains,
where surface dewpoints will be mostly in the lower to mid 60s F. As temperatures warm during the day, moderate instability is expected
to develop throughout much of this moist airmass. Isolated
thunderstorms are expected to form during the afternoon over the
western edge of the stronger instability, with storm coverage
remaining relatively sparse due to subsidence associated with the
upper-level ridge. Forecast soundings have directional shear in the
low-levels and speed shear aloft over much of the moist airmass. The
moderate deep-layer shear combined with steep mid-level lapse rates
should support a threat for hail and severe wind gusts. However, the
threat should be marginal.

...Intermountain West/Central Rockies...
An upper-level low will move to near the coast of Oregon on Friday,
as southwest mid-level flow remains over much of the western U.S. A
subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move through the Four Corners
region, where an axis of moisture and instability will likely be in
place. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop from parts of eastern Utah
into western and central Colorado, and northward into western
Wyoming. MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range,
with 0-6 km shear around 35 knots. Low-level lapse rates will also
be steep in the afternoon. This environment should support a
marginal potential for hail and severe wind gusts during the mid to
late afternoon.

..Broyles.. 08/22/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 221729
SWODY2
SPC AC 221728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN IDAHO AND SOUTHWEST
MONTANA...AND OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to perhaps scattered severe storms with strong to severe
gusts will be possible on Friday across parts of the parts of the
Intermountain West and central Rockies, and over a narrow portion of
the central and northern High Plains.

...Synopsis...
On Friday, an upper high will remain centered over the southern
Plains, while a large trough develops across the West. The primary
midlevel wave will eject northeastward across the Great Basin and
into ID and MT through 00Z, providing substantial cooling aloft.
Lift with this feature will be focused from northern NV and UT into
MT. Overnight, a secondary lobe of vorticity will swing east across
much of northern CA and OR.

At the surface, low pressure will deepen throughout the day ahead of
a cold front which will extend from the Bitterroots southwestward
into central NV by 21Z. Farther east, another trough will extend
from the low in western MT southeastward into the northern and
central High Plains.

Midlevel moisture already in place across the Four Corners states
will spread north across UT and into MT, which will combine with
daytime heating and cooling aloft to result in marginal instability.
Farther east, backed/southeasterly surface winds will maintain a
plume of lower 60s F dewpoints as far west as far eastern MT to
northeast CO.

...Great Basin into eastern ID/western WY...
A large area of moderate southwest flow aloft will spread east
across the region as the negative-tilt wave passes through NV/UT
relatively early in the day. While this wave is timed more favorable
farther north, instability may be less favorable than points south.
Given the moisture in place, storms will form over a large area
beginning mid/late morning over UT and expending into eastern
ID/western WY by midday. This is not timed particularly well in
terms of diurnal heating, but strengthening wind fields may aid gust
potential. Additional diurnally driven cells are then expected along
and east of the Wasatch, with marginal hail or wind threat as this
activity spreads northeast. The western fringe of the Marginal Risk
may be a bit generous over ID given uncertainties with how quickly
drying will occur from the west.

...Northern and central High Plains...
Daytime heating will lead to an unstable and uncapped air mass over
the High Plains, with storms expected to form roughly near a
Billings to Cheyenne line by late afternoon. Further development is
possible into eastern/northeastern CO as well. Given that these
areas are well east of the cyclonic flow regime aloft, any severe is
expected to be relatively isolated or in sparse clusters. However,
both localized damaging gusts or hail will be possible, though wind
profiles will generally favor disorganized storms.

..Jewell.. 08/22/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 230614
SWODY2
SPC AC 230613

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe storms will be possible on Saturday across the
Four Corners region eastward across the central High Plains.

...Synopsis...
Large-scale upper ridging is forecast to prevail over the Plains
Saturday, while a sharp trough advances slowly across the West.
Meanwhile, weak troughing will prevail over the Northeast.

At the surface, high pressure will prevail east of the Mississippi
Valley, while a remnant baroclinic zone extends from the northern
High Plains south-southeastward into the Kansas through most of the
period.

...Four Corners area east-northeastward across the central High
Plains...
As upper troughing moves slowly eastward across the Intermountain
West, modest destabilization across the Four Corners states will
support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. Though
instability will remain weak, a belt of stronger mid-level flow on
the eastern periphery of the aforementioned trough will allow a few
stronger storms to evolve. This, combined with dry sub-cloud layer,
suggests that locally damaging winds will be possible.

By late afternoon and into the evening, storm development is
forecast to increase across eastern Colorado and into the Nebraska
Panhandle region -- in the vicinity of the surface boundary. While
flow aloft will be weaker across this area, the strongest storms may
produce damaging wind gusts and hail. Risk should diminish through
late evening in tandem with nocturnal low-level stabilization.

..Goss.. 08/23/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 231725
SWODY2
SPC AC 231724

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER MAINLY
WESTERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe storms will be possible on Saturday across the
Four Corners region eastward across the central High Plains. A small
area of wind or small hail potential may also develop early over
parts of western Missouri.

...Synopsis...
On Saturday, a large upper trough will affect much of the West, with
the primary vorticity max moving across the Great Basin. Southwest
500 mb winds in excess of 50 kt will overspread much of that area,
extending into northern Rockies Meanwhile, an upper high will hold
from the central and southern Plains to the mid MS Valley through
Sunday morning.

At the surface, a cold front will roughly stretch from central MT
into central NV during the late afternoon, pushing east into the
western Dakotas and southeast across UT and southern NV into Sunday
morning. The better moisture and instability will be shunted east
across far eastern UT and into CO, as low-level drying occurs over
AZ and UT with persistent southwesterly winds.

Farther east into the Plains, a plume of mid to upper 60s F
dewpoints will develop northward across the MO Valley and toward the
upper MS Valley late, aided by a heating/deepening boundary layer
and around 30 kt southerly winds at 850 mb. This will also result an
unstable air mass, with early-day thunderstorms expected over
western MO and toward the mid MO Valley.

...Four Corners to the central High Plains...
A fetch of midlevel moisture will remain over the area, which is
also on the eastern fringe of the stronger flow aloft. Deep-layer
effective shear will average 35-40 kt, a will conditionally favor
scattered fast-moving cells. Storms are likely to form my early
afternoon over far eastern UT into western CO, and extending
southward across western NM. Sufficient shear and instability will
favor marginal hail with the strongest cells, while favorable
diurnal timing will and steep low-level lapse rates will be
conducive for strong wind gusts.

...Parts of central and western MO early...
Models are in good agreement with the development of a robust
cluster of storms in the early-day warm advection regime centered
over western MO. Given weak northwest flow aloft and a moistening
low-level air mass, it is conceivable that any large cluster of
storms could potentially forward-propagate southward across much of
western MO. As such, low severe probabilities have been added. Shear
will remain weak, but moderate instability may allow for very brief
hail.

..Jewell.. 08/23/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 240612
SWODY2
SPC AC 240610

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0110 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS INTO NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms may develop across the northern Plains area
on Sunday, with more isolated severe potential southwestward into
the southern Rockies on Sunday. A couple of strong/marginally
severe storms may also occur across the Lower Great Lakes/Upper Ohio
Valley vicinity.

...Synopsis...
A progressing western U.S. upper trough is forecast to gradually
weaken, as it impinges on a persistent central U.S. ridge. The
result will be that the trough gets shunted northeastward toward Montana/Wyoming with time. Meanwhile, weak upper troughing will
persist over the Northeast.

At the surface, a cold front will progress eastward across the
Canadian Prairie, and the north-central U.S. with time. By the end
of the period, the front should stretch from Minnesota southwestward
to northeastern Colorado.

...Northern Plains southwestward to the Four Corners region...
As the western U.S. trough advances eastward, large-scale ascent
will support scattered thunderstorm development across the
Intermountain Region, within a diurnally destabilizing airmass.
While CAPE will remain limited, moderate southwesterly flow aloft
ahead of the trough will allow some storm organization/longevity at
time. This, combined with a deep mixed layer providing support for
enhanced downdrafts with the stronger cells, will result in risk for
locally severe wind gusts.

More substantial severe risk could evolve across portions of the
north-central states, where much greater instability will evolve.
Though the airmass should remain capped in most areas, ascent may be
sufficient to support local cap breaches by late afternoon to allow
isolated storm development. If storms develop, upscale growth near
convective outflows would be expected, possibly resulting in
evening/overnight MCS development. Large hail would be possible
with the initial storms, though with locally damaging gusts likely
to be the dominant risk. Still, given the capping that is
anticipated, and questions whether ascent will be sufficient to
allow storm development, will maintain only conditional 15%/SLGT
risk at this time.

...Lower Great Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley area...
On the western fringe of the northeastern U.S. trough, moderate
northwesterly flow aloft may combine with modest afternoon
destabilization to support isolated storm development. Assuming
this occurs, a few strong gusts would be possible as storms would
move rather quickly southeastward. The main question remains the
degree of destabilization which may occur, and thus will introduce
only 5%/MRGL risk at this time.

..Goss.. 08/24/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 241716
SWODY2
SPC AC 241714

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1214 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms may develop across the northern Plains area
on Sunday, with more isolated severe potential southwestward into
the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A couple of
strong/marginally severe storms may also occur across the Lower
Great Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley vicinity.

...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest...

An upper anticyclone will be centered over KS/OK and the Ozark
Plateau, with the upper ridge axis oriented northward over the Upper
MS Valley on Sunday. Meanwhile, a shortwave upper trough will
migrate east across the Canadian Prairies. This will focus an area
of modestly enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow over the Dakotas
into the Upper Midwest.

At the surface, south/southeasterly flow will maintain a very moist
airmass, with dewpoints in the 70s F expected from the eastern
Dakotas into IA/MN and vicinity. A plume of steeper midlevel lapse
rates will advect northeast, aiding in strong destabilization.
However, warm midlevel temps will likely maintain at least weak
MLCIN across the region through the afternoon and into the evening
as stronger forcing for ascent largely remains north of the
international border. As a result, convective coverage during the
afternoon is a bit uncertain/conditional.

By late afternoon/evening, a surface front is forecast to progress
eastward across the Dakotas and into MN through the nighttime hours.
This may provide sufficient forcing for isolated thunderstorm
development. Given strong instability and sufficient vertical shear
for organized updrafts, large hail (especially with initial cellular development) and damaging gusts will be possible.

...Four Corners into WY and adjacent High Plains...

An upper trough will lift northeast across the Great Basin on
Sunday. Modestly enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow will
overspread the region between the eastern periphery of the trough
and the western periphery of the upper ridge to the east.
Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest for most of the region,
but steep midlevel lapse rates and strong heating will support
500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Sporadic downbursts may produce locally severe
gusts with this activity.

...Upper Ohio Valley Vicinity...

Modest northwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread the region on
Sunday on the western periphery of a Northeast upper trough. Latest
forecast guidance shows warming midlevel temps/minor height rises
during the day. However, a moist airmass will be in place and weak
to moderate destabilization is expected. Convective coverage may be
fairly low given latest forecast guidance trends. However, any
stronger cells that develop may produce locally strong gusts or
small hail given favorable shear and elongated/straight forecast
hodographs.

..Leitman.. 08/24/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 250608
SWODY2
SPC AC 250607

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS
OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...AND SMALL PORTIONS
OF SURROUNDING STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are expected to evolve within a zone extending from
the northern High Plains eastward to the Wisconsin vicinity during
the afternoon and evening Monday. A few severe storms are also
expected across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region.

...Synopsis...
A weakening upper trough is forecast to remain across the central
U.S. Monday. On the northwestern periphery of this ridge, and
short-wave trough initially over the Intermountain West is forecast
to advance northeastward across the northern High Plains into the
Northern Plains through the period. Meanwhile, an upper low is
forecast to shift southward out of the St. Lawrence Valley area
across western/southern New England, before shifting offshore
overnight. Finally, a Gulf of Alaska upper trough is forecast to
advance into western Canada and the Pacific Northwest through
Tuesday morning.

At the surface, a northwest-to-southeast cold front is forecast to
extend from the northeastern Minnesota vicinity southwestward across
Nebraska early in the period. The front should move little through
the day, as a frontal low lingers in the vicinity of the
Mid-Missouri Valley area. Overnight, the low is forecast to shift northeastward, allowing the trailing portion of the cold front to
progress southward across the central Plains through latter stages
of the period.

...Northern High Plains east to parts of Wisconsin...
Thunderstorms may be ongoing across portions of northern Minnesota
early Monday morning, with limited severe risk potentially lingering
through roughly midday. Meanwhile, as the moist low-level airmass
heats near and south of the convectively reinforced front,
mixed-layer CAPE in the 3000 to 5000 J/kg range is forecast to
develop through the afternoon. This, combined with ascent near the front/convective outflows, should allow isolated storms to develop
across the eastern South Dakota vicinity. The storms should rapidly
become supercells, given the kinematic environment characterized by
low-level flow veering/increasing with height to 40 to 50 kt
southwesterlies at mid levels. Very large hail is expected, along
with damaging wind gusts. Storms will continue into the evening,
possibly growing upscale into an MCS overnight -- shifting
northeastward into/across southern Minnesota. Along with continued
risk for large hail, damaging winds would likely accompany this
convection. In addition, a couple of tornadoes may also occur --
particularly just to the northeast of the anticipated position of
the surface low where low-level flow will remain
backed/southeasterly.

Meanwhile farther west, into the High Plains, isolated afternoon
convective development is expected, in closer proximity to the
advancing upper system. A drier boundary layer and thus weaker CAPE
across this region suggests less substantial severe risk. Still,
hail and damaging gusts should accompany a few of the stronger
storms, given the belt of 50 kt mid-level southwesterly flow
accompanying the advancing short-wave trough.

...Portions of the Northeast/New England...
As the upper low shifts southward across western New England through
the day Monday, heating/destabilization is expected to support
development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Enhanced
northwesterly flow near and west of the low should support
southeastward-moving bands/clusters of storms, which should prove
locally capable of producing strong -- potentially damaging -- gusts
from mid afternoon into the evening hours.

..Goss.. 08/25/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 260607
SWODY2
SPC AC 260606

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0106 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Some severe-weather potential is evident across the Great Lakes
region on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
An upper ridge centered over the Mid-MS/TN/OH Valleys will gradually
weaken with time, as a short-wave trough shifting east-northeastward
across the northern Plains gradually suppresses the ridging.
Meanwhile upstream, a strong upper low over southern British
Columbia early will advance eastward across southern portions of the
Canadian Rockies and adjacent northwestern U.S. through the period.

At the surface, an expansive cold front extending from Quebec
southwestward across the Upper Great Lakes to the central High
Plains will become increasingly west/east-oriented, as the
northeastern portion of the front shifts southeastward into New
England during the second half of the period, while the southwestern
segment remains more quasi-stationary -- or even retreats slightly
northward -- through the end of the period. Meanwhile, a strong
cold front will advance eastward/southeastward across the
northwestern U.S. ahead of the progressive upper low.

...Great Lakes region...
Thunderstorms -- and some severe risk -- should be ongoing across
portions of the Upper Great Lakes region at the start of the period.
Evolution of convection with time remains uncertain - in part due to
remnant influence of upper ridging across the region and associated
capping. Some models suggest that ongoing convection weakens
through the day, with little afternoon redevelopment. At this time,
the most likely scenario appears to be one or more clusters of
storms will continue moving eastward across the risk area through
the day, accompanied by at least some risk for damaging winds and
hail. By mid afternoon, redevelopment of storms may occur on
southern fringes of earlier convection, near remnant outflows.
Given likelihood for substantial destabilization, severe risk would
accompany any of these redeveloping storms.

Questions persist not only with degree of coverage of convection
through afternoon and evening, but both the southern, and eastern,
extent of severe potential. Several models suggest storms
developing south and southwest of the SLGT risk area, where
favorable instability but much weaker shear is expected. Meanwhile,
some models continue to depict overnight convection crossing the
Lower Great Lakes region, with ample instability/shear to support at
least low-end severe potential. Additional adjustments to the MRGL
risk area in later outlooks will likely be required, as the
evolution of this scenario becomes a bit less uncertain.

..Goss.. 08/26/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 271711
SWODY2
SPC AC 271709

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1209 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE DAKOTAS...AND FROM OHIO TO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday from parts of Ohio to
the northern Mid-Atlantic coast, and across parts of North and South
Dakota.

...Mid-MS/OH Valleys to the Mid-Atlantic...

Uncertainty remains this forecast cycle, particularly from around
central PA eastward to the northern Mid-Atlantic Coast/Chesapeake
Bay vicinity. Severe thunderstorm probabilities have been focused
along and just ahead of a southward sagging cold front and
instability gradient from central OH to the NJ coast. Rich
boundary-layer moisture (dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s F)
will contribute to a corridor of MLCAPE around 2000-4000 J/kg from
the Mid-MS Valley eastward to the NJ coast. Warm midlevel
temperatures may lead to lingering inhibition, particularly across
eastern portions of the Slight and Marginal risk areas. Height falls
associated with troughing over eastern Canada will remain well north
of the region, and resulting in somewhat nebulous large-scale ascent
amid very modest vertical shear (effective shear magnitudes
generally less than 25 kt).

Convection from the Day 1/Tue period may be ongoing Wednesday
morning across parts of the Great Lakes vicinity and shift east
along the instability gradient/southward-sagging surface front
through the afternoon. Vertical shear may be locally enhanced with
any MCV that may be present with this activity, and damaging winds
are possible as the downstream boundary layer destabilizes.
Additional isolated thunderstorm development is possible from
central PA/northern VA eastward to the coast. This activity could
produce locally damaging gusts and perhaps small hail if capping can
be overcome and longer-lived updrafts develop.

Weak shear further west toward the Mid-MS Valley vicinity will
likely preclude a more organized severe risk. However, strong
heating amid the very moist/unstable airmass will support isolated strong/locally damaging gusts during the afternoon.

...Northern Plains...

A robust upper cyclone will spread east from the northern Rockies to
the northern Plains on Wednesday. Enhanced mid/upper southwesterly
flow ahead of this feature will overspread the Dakotas, in
conjunction with stronger height falls, from late afternoon into the
overnight hours. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over the
northern High Plains during the day, resulting in an increasing
baroclinic zone across the northern Plains. Southeasterly low-level
flow will transport 60s F dewpoints northwest ahead of a
westward-advancing cold front. Steepening midlevel lapse rates and
favorable boundary-layer moisture will support a corridor of strong
instability (MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/kg). Forecast soundings indication
supercell wind profile, with greater than 40 kt effective shear
magnitudes and elongated/straight hodographs. Large hail, some
potential to 3 inch diameter, will be possible in addition to severe
wind gusts beginning near 00z and lingering into the nighttime
hours.

..Leitman.. 08/27/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 280606
SWODY2
SPC AC 280604

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN...AND INTO IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from portions of the
Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley to the central Plains. A few strong
storms also will be possible over portions of the Virginia and North
Carolina vicinity.

...Synopsis...
While weak upper short-wave troughing shifts across the Northeast on
Thursday, a much stronger trough/low will continue to advance
into/across the north-central U.S. through the period. At the
surface, a cold front is forecast to sag southward across the
Mid-Atlantic region in lee of the Appalachians, while a more
substantial cold front shifts eastward/southeastward across the
Plains through the period.

...Mid and Upper Mississippi Valley area to the central Plains...
As the upper low and associated trough extending southward across
the northern Plains gradually advances, eastward progression of the
associated cold front will result in afternoon storm development
from western Minnesota southwestward into Kansas. While both
instability and shear are expected to diminish gradually with
southwestward extent along the front, 2500 to 3500 J/kg mixed-layer
CAPE is forecast by late afternoon from central Minnesota into far
northeastern Nebraska and Iowa, along with 0-6 km shear in the 35 to
45 kt range. This will support vigorous storms, and attendant risks
for large hail and damaging wind gusts. With time, linear/upscale
organization is expected to occur, with severe risk shifting across
the Upper Midwest/upper Mississippi Valley region through the
evening hours. Lesser risk with southwestward extent should
gradually diminish after sunset.

...Virginia/North Carolina vicinity...
As weak mid-level short-wave troughing shifts across the Northeast,
a cold front back-dooring southward in lee of the Appalachians may
focus development of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Rather
weak northwesterly flow aloft, but moderate destabilization that is
expected to occur, will likely support a few multicell clusters,
along with attendant risks for marginal hail and minor wind damage.
Risk should remain confined to the afternoon and early evening
hours, diminishing in tandem with nocturnal stabilization.

..Goss.. 08/28/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 281731
SWODY2
SPC AC 281729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA...WESTERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from portions of the
Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley to the central Plains. A few severe
storms also will be possible over portions of the mid-Atlantic
region.

...Synopsis...
A weak upper-level short-wave trough will shift east across the
Northeast on Thursday, as a much stronger trough/low will continue
to advance into/across the north-central states. At the
surface, a cold front is forecast to sag southward across the
Mid-Atlantic region in lee of the Appalachians, while a more
prominent cold front shifts eastward/southeastward across the
central and northern Plains.

...Mid and Upper Mississippi Valley area to the central Plains...
Large scale ascent with the upper low/trough will increase in the
vicinity of the eastward-advancing cold front over MN/northern IA,
augmented by the right-entrance region of a 250-mb jet lifting north
during the day. Substantial instability should be in place by
afternoon, with afternoon MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg expected.
Strengthening mid-level flow with the approach of the upper trough
will contribute to deep-layer shear of 35-45 kts, supporting
organized storms including the potential for supercell structures. Thunderstorms should increase in coverage through the afternoon and
evening, becoming more linear with time along the cold front.
Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary severe hazards,
with the severe risk continuing into the evening hours. Some
tornado risk may also develop with embedded QLCS circulations as
low-level shear appears supportive, especially within the Slight
Risk area.

Both instability and shear will diminish with southward extent
across eastern NE/northern KS, however afternoon thunderstorm
development is expected along the front within a largely uncapped
environment. Isolated damaging winds will be the primary risk as
strong boundary-layer heating will steepen low-level lapse rates,
and storms begin to cluster during the late afternoon/evening.
Instances of large hail will also be possible.

...Mid-Atlantic Region...
A southward-moving cold front will move across the mid-Atlantic in
the lee of the Appalachians Thursday within a moderately unstable
though weakly sheared environment. With minimal afternoon CINH,
thunderstorms should develop over the higher terrain and along the
front and tend to cluster with time. This will result in a risk for
damaging gusts, and perhaps hail with the stronger updrafts.

..Bunting.. 08/28/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 290554
SWODY2
SPC AC 290552

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LAKE
HURON AND ERIE VICINITY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong/locally severe storms will be possible from Lakes Huron and
Erie southwestward into the Midwest Friday.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will continue moving slowly eastward out of
the north-central U.S. across the Great Lakes and Midwest on Friday,
with the more vigorous portion of the trough expected to eject
northeastward across western Ontario into the Hudson Bay region.

At the surface, a cold front is forecast to continue eastward across
the Great Lakes, southeastward across the Midwest, and slowly
southward across the southern Plains. By the end of the period, the
front should extend from the Lower Great Lakes west-southwestward
across the Ohio Valley, and into Oklahoma and northern Texas.

...Lower Michigan/northern Ohio/northwestern Pennsylvania across the
Midwest...
Moderate destabilization is expected in tandem with afternoon
heating ahead of the cold front, from Lower Michigan
west-southwestward across northern Illinois and Missouri, and
southward across the warm sector. As the front slowly advances,
scattered thunderstorm development is expected, initially across the
lower Michigan and potentially into parts of Ohio, and then
expanding southwestward across Indiana, Illinois, and into Missouri.

Although the stronger deep-layer shear will largely remain to the
cool side of the front, modest westerly mid-level flow of 20-25 kts
will favor loosely organized storms, with some potential for upscale growth/clustering. Strong/isolated damaging gusts and perhaps
severe hail will be possible. While risk should diminish after
dark, convection -- and very limited risk with a couple of stronger
storms -- may continue well into the overnight hours.

..Goss.. 08/29/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 291731
SWODY2
SPC AC 291729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across eastern lower
Michigan on Friday, with more isolated strong/severe storms into
parts of the Midwest, and also across parts of the Carolinas and
Virginia into northeast Georgia.

...Synopsis...
The southern portion of an relatively deep upper-level trough will
move across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region on Friday, with
the strongest part of this trough and related mid/upper-level flow
expected to remain north of the international border. A cold front
trailing from a deep surface low near Hudson Bay will move across
parts of the Great Lakes, Midwest, mid/upper MS Valley, and
south-central Great Plains.

...Parts of lower MI and OH into IN/IL/MO...
Diurnal heating and relatively rich moisture will support moderate
to locally strong destabilization along/ahead of the cold front
during the afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development will be
possible across a broad region from lower MI and OH into the Midwest
and parts of the Plains. Stronger deep-layer flow/shear will be
generally displaced to the north of the front, though modest
west/southwesterly flow could support isolated strong storms capable
of locally damaging gusts and possibly hail.

Within the broader region of isolated severe potential, a somewhat
more favorable environment will be possible in the vicinity of
eastern lower MI, where relatively greater low/midlevel flow
(generally 20-30 kt at 850 mb and 30-40 kt at 700 mb) is forecast
within the prefrontal environment. A few more-organized clusters or
line segments appear possible in this area, with an attendant
damaging-wind threat. A 15% wind area has been added where
confidence is currently highest in the overlap of greater storm
coverage and somewhat stronger flow.

...NC/VA into the southern ...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected Friday afternoon across much NC
and southern VA into the southern Blue Ridge vicinity, within a
moist and unstable environment. Development will tend to be focused
near the sea breeze, any remnant outflow boundary from D1/Thursday
convection, and across the higher terrain. Deep-layer shear is
expected to remain weak, which will tend to limit storm
organization. However, the favorable thermodynamic profile will
support a threat of locally damaging outflow winds.

..Dean.. 08/29/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 300605
SWODY2
SPC AC 300603

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0103 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AREA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe potential -- mainly in the form of damaging gusts -- is
expected across portions of the northeast/central Appalachians and
into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys Saturday. A few strong/severe
gusts may also occur over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley
vicinity during the afternoon.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough moving across central Canada and the Great Lakes
region will amplify modestly as it progresses eastward through
Saturday night. Meanwhile, large-scale upper ridging will continue
to prevail over the West.

At the surface, a weakening cold front will continue moving eastward
across the Lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into the Northeast and
Tennessee Valley area through Saturday afternoon and evening.
Meanwhile, a much stronger cold front is forecast to shift rapidly southeastward/southward out of Canada across the Upper Great Lakes
and northern/central Plains through the period.

...Portions of the Northeast west-southwestward across the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys...
As a weakening cold front shifts southeastward into the
Northeast/across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon in tandem with
weak mid-level height falls, heating/destabilization will support
development of bands of thunderstorms across this region. The
strongest flow aloft will remain across New York and into
Pennsylvania, with weaker flow southwestward along the front.
However, more substantial CAPE is expected farther south/southwest.
The best juxtaposition of favorable kinematics and ample instability
is forecast from portions of southeastern New York southwestward
into the West Virginia/Maryland/northern Virginia vicinity. Here,
locally damaging winds and some hail will be possible --
particularly during the afternoon hours. Lesser risk will extend
southwestward -- potentially as far west-southwest as the middle
Mississippi Valley area.

...Upper Mississippi Valley vicinity...
As a strong cold front advances south-southeastward across the
Northern Plains/Upper Great Lakes region ahead of a digging
mid-level short-wave through, weak/rather low-topped instability is
forecast to develop during the afternoon. This will support widely
scattered thunderstorm development near the advancing front, within
a very favorably strong kinematic environment. As such, fast-moving
storms will be capable of producing gusty/damaging winds locally,
before storms diminish after sunset.

..Goss.. 08/30/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 301711
SWODY2
SPC AC 301710

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging gusts are
possible across portions of the central Appalachians into the
Northeast on Saturday. A few strong/severe gusts may also occur
over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and across northern Minnesota/Wisconsin into Upper Michigan.

...Synopsis...
The large-scale pattern will remain relatively unchanged on
Saturday, with a relatively deep upper-level trough extending from
eastern Canada into the Northeast/Great Lakes, while an upper-level
ridge remains in place over much of the West. A weakening cold front
will move into parts of the Northeast and Ohio Valley during the
afternoon and evening. A strong reinforcing shortwave trough and
attendant cold front will move southeastward across parts of the
northern Great Plains into the upper Great Lakes region.

...Parts of the Northeast into the OH/TN Valleys...
Scattered thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon
along/ahead of the weakening cold front from parts of the Northeast
into the OH/TN Valleys. In general, there will be some displacement
between stronger low/midlevel flow to the northeast and stronger
instability with southwestward extent. The best relative overlap of
instability and modestly favorable flow/shear is expected from the
central Appalachians into parts of the Northeast. Multiple loosely
organized storm clusters will be possible across this area, with a
threat of isolated to scattered damaging winds and localized hail.

Deep-layer shear will be weaker into parts of the TN and lower OH
Valleys. However, moderate to locally strong buoyancy and relatively
large PW will support localized wet microbursts, and perhaps a
couple of outflow-driven clusters, with isolated damaging-wind
potential.

...Parts of northern MN/WI into upper MI...
While buoyancy will likely remain weak due to limited moisture,
strong large-scale ascent associated with the approaching shortwave
trough will support potential for relatively low-topped convection
near the cold front. Steepening low-level lapse rates and
strengthening low-level flow will support a threat of at least
isolated damaging gusts with the strongest convection. Relatively
cold temperatures aloft will also support potential for small to
near-severe hail, if deeper convection can develop.

...Arizona...
Modestly increasing moisture will support isolated to widely
scattered storms across parts of Arizona on Saturday. Initial
development is expected over the usual terrain-favored areas. It
remains uncertain if storm coverage and intensity will be sufficient
for stronger outflow winds to spread into the lower elevations,
though this cannot be ruled out within a weak easterly midlevel flow
regime.

..Dean.. 08/30/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 020603
SWODY2
SPC AC 020601

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Mon Sep 02 2024

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND GREAT BASIN...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong/a few severe storms capable of producing damaging
wind gusts, and possibly marginal hail, are expected from the
northern Intermountain region eastward into the northern High
Plains, and southward into Utah.

...Synopsis...
As a large-scale upper trough continues to vacate the northeastern
U.S. Tuesday, a second/short-wave trough initially situated over the
Pacific Northwest will advance eastward across the northern
Intermountain region/Great Basin.

At the surface, a cold front will shift eastward across the
northwestern quarter of the country, in conjunction with the
advancing upper trough, while westerly flow aloft will maintain a
High-Plains lee trough. Meanwhile, a remnant baroclinic zone will
linger from the southern Atlantic coastal area westward across the
Gulf Coast/northern Gulf of Mexico through the period, as a large
area of high pressure prevails north of the front, across the
central and eastern U.S., through the period.

...Montana to the western Dakotas, and southward to northwestern
Colorado and Utah...
As the upper system advances eastward across Idaho/western Montana
and the Great Basin during the afternoon, daytime heating/mixing
will eventually result in 500 to 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE atop a
deep/dry boundary layer. This will support development of scattered thunderstorms from western Montana/eastern Idaho southward across
Utah and adjacent portions of eastern Nevada.

The strongest storms are expected to evolve from southwestern
Montana south to northern Utah, where CAPE should be maximized ahead
of the trough, and a belt of 30 to 40 kt west-southwesterly
mid-level flow on the southeastern periphery of the upper trough
should reside. Here, a couple of the strongest -- potentially
rotating -- storms will be capable of producing both strong/severe
outflow winds and possibly marginal hail. Surrounding this area,
where instability and/or shear should remain a bit weaker, the
primary risk will be isolated strong wind gusts.

Through late afternoon and into the evening, convection -- and local
risk for strong/damaging winds -- will spread eastward toward/into
the High Plains, before weakening into the overnight hours.

..Goss.. 09/02/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 021729
SWODY2
SPC AC 021727

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Mon Sep 02 2024

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong storms with isolated severe may produce damaging
wind gusts and marginal hail from the northern Intermountain region
eastward into the northern High Plains, and southward into Utah.

...Synopsis...
On Tuesday, an upper trough will weaken as it moves from the
Northwest into the northern Rockies, providing cooling aloft and
increased mid and high level flow. To the east, a large upper trough
will exit the northeastern states, with height rises over the
north-central CONUS.

At the surface, a weak cold front will move across the eastern Great
Basin, ID, western WY and southwest MT by early afternoon,
increasing lift/convergence.

Elsewhere, a moist air mass will remain from TX eastward across the
Gulf Coast, with scattered non-severe storms likely.

...Eastern Great Basin into the Northern Rockies...
As heating accelerates and cooler temperatures overspread the
region, steep lapse rates will yield a large area of thunderstorms,
developing relatively early in the afternoon, from much of UT into
southwest MT. The strongest instability with 500 to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE
will be roughly from far northern UT into MT, where temperatures
aloft will be coolest. Deep-layer effective shear will increase to
around 40 kt, especially across ID, MT, and northwest WY, which will
aid cellular storm mode and hail potential to around 1.00" in
diameter. Otherwise, scattered storms across the entire area will
produce outflows, with progressive clusters of storms producing
strong to locally severe gusts. A few storms may make it as far east
as western SD by late evening, with generally decreasing intensity
after sunset.

..Jewell.. 09/02/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 030558
SWODY2
SPC AC 030556

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS INTO MUCH OF MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Wednesday across
parts of the central and northern Rockies and Plains into parts of
Minnesota.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough initially over the Great Basin/Intermountain West
is forecast to move east-southeastward and gradually deamplify on
Wednesday, as it begins to merge with a more prominent upper-level
trough that will cover parts of the Canadian Prairies into the
northern/central Plains. Multiple embedded shortwaves within the
larger trough will likely move across parts of the Dakotas and
Minnesota. A weak surface wave may develop during the afternoon
along a cold front that will extend from parts of MN and the Dakotas
into the central Plains.

...Parts of the northern/central Rockies/Plains into Minnesota...
A large area of at least low-end severe potential may evolve from
parts of the central/northern Rockies/Plains into Minnesota. The
Marginal Risk has been maintained with some minor adjustments;
further refinement to the risk area is likely if areas of relatively
lower or higher threat become evident with time.

Scattered thunderstorms may develop relatively early in the day
across the higher terrain of CO/WY/MT, in association with the
shortwave trough emerging from the Intermountain West. While
low-level moisture will likely remain rather limited, steep midlevel
lapse rates and modestly favorable deep-layer shear could support a
few organized multicells and perhaps a marginal supercell or two, as
convection spreads towards the central/northern High Plains.
Isolated strong to severe gusts and hail will be possible. Some
outflow consolidation could support one or more loosely organized
clusters evolving with time, with a threat of strong to locally
severe gusts as storms move eastward into the evening.

Farther northeast, details regarding destabilization and storm development/evolution from the eastern Dakotas into MN remain
uncertain. Some guidance suggests potential for an embedded
shortwave or MCV to move across the region during the
afternoon/evening, which could aid in isolated storm development
near the front, if sufficient moistening and destabilization can
occur. There will also be some potential for storms to develop
and/or spread into the region from the west during the evening, as
the larger-scale upper trough begins to amplify. Relatively steep
midlevel lapse rates and adequate deep-layer shear could support
isolated hail and damaging gusts with the strongest storms.

..Dean.. 09/03/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 031720
SWODY2
SPC AC 031719

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...NORTHERN PLAINS...AND
THE MIDWEST....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Wednesday across
parts of the central and northern Rockies and Plains into parts of
Minnesota.

...Synopsis...
A broad, positively tilted trough with several embedded shortwave
troughs will become more consolidated and start to amplify across
the northern Plains on Wednesday and Wednesday night. At the
surface, a cold front will move southeast across the northern Plains
with scattered thunderstorms possible. The greater thunderstorm
coverage is expected during the afternoon/evening across the central
Rockies, beneath the coldest air aloft, and across northwest
Wisconsin/eastern Minnesota early Thursday morning as the low-level
jet intensifies along the frontal zone.

...Central Rockies into the central High Plains...
Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected across the
central Rockies on Wednesday afternoon as cold air aloft (-12C at
500mb) combines with significant heating over the higher terrain.
The greatest instability will be near the center of the vorticity
maximum/cold air pocket where wind shear will be quite weak. Some
wind gusts or isolated large hail will be possible, but a more
organized threat seems unlikely. A more favorable wind profile will
exist along the southern periphery of this trough from eastern Utah
to southern Wyoming and northern Colorado. However, the warmer
temperatures aloft within this corridor may limit storm
coverage/intensity somewhat. Therefore, a few strong to locally
severe storms are possible from southern Montana to northern
Colorado, western Nebraska, and southwest South Dakota, however, a
displacement between the best instability and wind shear should keep
the threat somewhat limited.

...Upper Midwest...
A mid-level shortwave trough will eject across the Dakotas, in the
vicinity of the cold front, during the day Wednesday. Therefore, a
few thunderstorms are possible along the cold front, but a lack of
better moisture should mostly limit the daytime thunderstorm threat.
However, as the low-level jet strengthens overnight, it will result
in some moistening between 850mb and 700mb which will likely result
in more widespread thunderstorm development after 06Z. During this
period, mid-level flow will also strengthen from around 25 knots to
near 35 knots by 12Z. This will improve the shear across the region
and therefore, result in some threat for large hail and damaging
wind gusts near sunrise as storms develop within a region of
moderate instability and 30 to 35 knots of shear.

..Bentley.. 09/03/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 040554
SWODY2
SPC AC 040552

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The threat for organized severe thunderstorms currently appears low
on Thursday, but a few strong storms cannot be ruled out across
parts of the upper Midwest, New Mexico, and south-central Colorado.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough is forecast to amplify and move southeastward
across the Canadian Prairies into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes on
Thursday. To the southwest of this amplifying trough, a weakening
shortwave is forecast to move southeastward across the
central/southern Rockies into the southern High Plains. At the
surface, a cold front is forecast to extend southwestward from the
Great Lakes into parts of the Midwest and central/southern Plains
during the afternoon.

...Parts of the upper Midwest...
Elevated convection will likely be ongoing Thursday morning across
parts of WI and western upper MI. While this convection will likely
tend to weaken with time, a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out
early in the period.

As the cold front moves south-southeastward through the day,
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be
possible in the vicinity of the frontal zone. Large-scale forcing
and deep-layer flow are forecast to be somewhat stronger near the
upper Midwest portion of the front, in response to the amplifying
upper-level trough. Relatively substantial spread persists among
guidance regarding the extent of moistening/destabilization, though
in general, buoyancy is expected to remain relatively modest,
rendering any organized-severe potential uncertain.

With relatively limited low-level moisture, pockets of rather strong heating/mixing could develop, which may support localized gusty
winds with any stronger storms. If stronger destabilization does
evolve during the afternoon, then isolated hail cannot be ruled out.
At this time, confidence in an organized severe threat remains too
low for probabilities.

...South-central CO into NM...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected from south-central CO into NM,
as the weakening shortwave trough moves southeastward across the
region during the afternoon/evening. Effective shear will become
modestly supportive of organized convection (generally 25-30 kt),
but buoyancy may remain rather weak. If adequate instability can be
realized, then some threat for localized hail and strong/severe
gusts could accompany the strongest storms.

..Dean.. 09/04/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 041720
SWODY2
SPC AC 041718

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 PM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO....

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe storms are possible across portions of
northeast New Mexico Thursday afternoon/evening.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough is forecast to amplify and move southeastward
across the Canadian Prairies into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes on
Thursday. To the southwest of this amplifying trough, a weakening
shortwave is forecast to move southeastward across the
central/southern Rockies into the southern High Plains. At the
surface, a cold front is forecast to extend southwestward from the
Great Lakes into parts of the Midwest and central/southern Plains
during the afternoon.

...Southern Rockies and High Plains...
A concentrated area of thunderstorms are forecast across northeast
New Mexico on Thursday as a sharp mid-level shortwave trough
advances southeast across the central/southern Rockies and interacts
with a pocket of instability in the post-frontal airmass across
northeast New Mexico. Some increasing mid-level flow associated with
this trough will overspread the region and provide 20 to 25 knots of
deep layer shear. This may be sufficient for some storm organization
and the potential for severe-wind gusts. Some small hail is also
possible, but relatively modest instability/shear may limit the
potential for large hail.

...Parts of the Upper Midwest...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period
along the frontal zone in northwest Wisconsin. Expect this activity
to wane by mid-morning as the low-level jet weakens. Strong height
falls will overspread the cold front by mid to late afternoon which
should support additional thunderstorm development along the cold
front during the afternoon/early evening. Forecast soundings show
limited moisture/instability (less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) and modest
effective shear (25-30 kts). This could support a few strong to
severe storms, but overall, expect the severe-weather threat to
remain limited/isolated.

..Bentley.. 09/04/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 050553
SWODY2
SPC AC 050552

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF OHIO
INTO ADJACENT PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe storms are possible on Friday across much
of Ohio and adjacent portions of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough is forecast to amplify as it digs
southeastward across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions on
Friday. A mid/upper-level cyclone is forecast to develop with time,
as a strong embedded shortwave moves southeastward into the base of
the trough by Friday evening. A cold front will move through parts
of the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Midwest, and southern Plains.
Farther south, a weak surface wave may develop along a front near
the Gulf Coast and move northeastward along or just offshore of the
Carolina coast late Friday night into early Saturday morning. To the
west, an upper ridge will remain in place across the Southwest,
while a shortwave trough begins to move inland across northern CA
into the Pacific Northwest.

...Ohio and adjacent parts of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley...
Thunderstorms are expected to develop near the cold front Friday
afternoon across parts of Ohio and vicinity, as the amplifying
upper-level trough begins to impinge upon the region. Low-level
moisture will likely remain rather limited ahead of the front,
though relatively strong heating/mixing will steepen low-level lapse
rates. Somewhat more favorable moisture and buoyancy will reside
near and immediately behind the front, with MLCAPE potentially
approaching or exceeding 1000 J/kg.

Low-level flow will likely remain rather weak, but gradually
increasing effective shear (generally into the 25-35 kt range) could
support a few stronger storms capable of at least isolated damaging
winds during the afternoon and perhaps into the evening. Isolated
hail also cannot be ruled out with any stronger discrete cells.

...Gulf Coast to the Carolina Coast...
Some increase in low-level flow is possible in the vicinity of the
frontal wave that may develop near the Gulf Coast and move toward
the coastal Carolinas overnight. While this could be accompanied by
some increase in low-level shear/SRH, buoyancy is currently expected
to remain quite weak, so potential for organized convection inland
appears relatively uncertain/limited at this time.

..Dean.. 09/05/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 051719
SWODY2
SPC AC 051718

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
OHIO AND PARTS OF ADJACENT STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe storms are possible on Friday across much
of Ohio and adjacent portions of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.

...Synopsis...
A large upper trough will deepen on Friday as it moves from the
upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes. The primary speed max will
dive southeastward across MN/IA during the day and round the base of
the trough into IL, IN, OH and toward Lake Erie into Saturday
morning. Meanwhile, modest upper ridging will exist across the West
with weak flow.

At the surface, a cold front will stretch from near Lake Erie
southwestward toward the OH Valley during the afternoon with a
surface low developing from Lake Ontario into far southwest Quebec
late. Otherwise, the pre-frontal trough will be relatively weak
during the day.

...OH and Vicinity...
Daytime heating will lead to steepening lapse rates, with a plume of
60s F dewpoints likely east of the cold front. Forecast soundings
show in excess of 1000 J/kg MUCAPE. While low-level lapse rates will
become steep, most of the cooling aloft will be post frontal, and
not contribute appreciably to destabilization across the warm
sector.

Increasing frontal ascent into the uncapped air mass will lead to
scattered storms after about 18Z, from far western NY into parts of
KY. The most favorable combination of instability and wind profiles
appears to be over OH, with sufficiently long hodographs to support
hail in some of the storms. Cellular storm mode is expected early,
with the undercutting cold front supporting a transition to linear.
As such, marginal hail and then wind gusts will be possible through
about 02Z, when storms are expected to dissipate with the loss of
heating.

..Jewell.. 09/05/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 060549
SWODY2
SPC AC 060547

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Fri Sep 06 2024

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday in parts of the
southwestern states, the Pacific Northwest and from the Southeast
northward to the lower Great Lakes. No severe weather is expected.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level low will move eastward across southeast Canada on
Saturday, as an associated mid-level trough moves into the central Appalachians. At the surface, a cold front will advance
southeastward across the Mid-Atlantic, Carolinas and Southeast.
Ahead of the front, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop as a
moist airmass heats up during the day. Additional storms will be
possible on Saturday in the vicinity of a large area of mid-level
high pressure located over the southwestern U.S. A few strikes may
also occur near the Interstate-5 corridor in western Washington
southward into the Willamette Valley.

..Broyles.. 09/06/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 061725
SWODY2
SPC AC 061723

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 PM CDT Fri Sep 06 2024

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible Saturday over parts of the Northeast
and Mid Atlantic, the central Rockies/High Plains, Florida, and
across parts of the Southwest. No severe weather is expected.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A deep upper low/trough will move eastward across the Great Lakes
and toward the Northeast, becoming negatively tilted and resulting
in substantial cooling aloft. At the surface, a cold front will
extend south from a low over southern Quebec, roughly from the
Hudson Valley into the Piedmont around 18Z.

While dewpoints in the 60s F will exist ahead of the cold front,
instability will be minimal and generally less than 500 J/kg due to
a shallow/cool boundary layer. In addition, low-level shear will not
be particularly strong, with modest warm advection around 850 mb. As
such, severe weather is not anticipated with this system despite the
strong upper trough.

Elsewhere, northwest flow will exist across the central High Plains
east of the upper ridge, with around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE developing.
Dewpoints may struggle to reach 50 F, though isolated thunderstorms
are expected with locally gusty winds or small hail over northeast
CO into western NE during the late afternoon.

..Jewell.. 09/06/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 070553
SWODY2
SPC AC 070552

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday in parts of the Southeast,
western states and Great Lakes. No severe weather is expected.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys on Sunday. In the wake of the trough, northwest
mid-level flow will be in place over the Great Lakes. Strong
large-scale ascent and cold temperatures aloft, associated with the
trough, will be favorable for isolated thunderstorms. Additional
thunderstorms will be possible in the central and eastern Gulf Coast
states near and to the south of a front. In the western U.S.,
scattered thunderstorms are expected to the west of an upper-level
ridge, over much of the Intermountain West. No severe threat is
expected in the U.S. on Sunday or Sunday night.

..Broyles.. 09/07/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 071722
SWODY2
SPC AC 071720

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The organized severe-thunderstorm threat is expected to be low on
Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A deep trough is forecast to move eastward across eastern Canada and
the northeast CONUS on Sunday, as an embedded mid/upper-level
cyclone moves across parts of Quebec, New Brunswick, and northern
New England. To the west, a midlevel shortwave trough will move
across the interior Northwest, to the north of a mid/upper-level
ridge. A surface ridge covering much of the eastern CONUS will
prevent return of richer low-level moisture from near the Gulf
Coast. This will limit destabilization and organized severe
potential across most of the CONUS.

Thunderstorms will be possible from the Carolinas/Georgia to the
immediate Gulf Coast, where richer moisture will persist near and
north of a surface front. A few strong storms may develop across the central/northern FL Peninsula, where the relative best overlap of
instability and modest flow aloft is currently forecast. Weak
convection with sporadic lightning flashes could move across parts
of the Great Lakes, in conjunction with a pocket of cold
temperatures aloft. Isolated to scattered high-based convection will
be possible from the central High Plains into parts of the
central/southern Rockies, Great Basin, and Southwest, which may
produce locally strong gusts. Some strong-gust potential could also
accompany isolated storm development across the interior Northwest,
in association with the shortwave trough moving across the region.

..Dean.. 09/07/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 080554
SWODY2
SPC AC 080552

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Sun Sep 08 2024

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday in parts of the lower Great
Lakes, along the Gulf Coast, and from the Four Corners northward
into the northern Plains. No severe weather is expected Monday or
Monday night.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough will move eastward through the Northeast on
Monday. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
from near the trough westward into the lower Great Lakes, aided by
strong large-scale ascent and cold air aloft. Thunderstorms will
also be possible along parts of the Gulf Coast on the northern edge
of a moist airmass. Additionally, scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop in the Four Corners, with more isolated storms
forming over the north-central states. No severe weather is expected
across the continental United States Monday or Monday night.

..Broyles.. 09/08/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 081641
SWODY2
SPC AC 081639

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 AM CDT Sun Sep 08 2024

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday in parts of the lower Great
Lakes, along the Gulf Coast, and from the Four Corners northward
into the northern Plains. Some storms may produce damaging wind
gusts over western into central New York.

...Synopsis...
A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic while
weaker mid-level troughs, embedded in mainly zonal flow, traverse
the Pacific Northwest and Northern Plains tomorrow (Monday). Surface
high pressure will dominate the Midwest to Atlantic Seaboard while
surface troughing becomes established over the central and northern
Plains. An embedded mid-level impulse will pivot around the backside
of the East Coast trough and provide adequate lift for at least
scattered thunderstorms over NY and immediate surrounding areas.
Meanwhile, strong surface heating and orographic lift will encourage
isolated to scattered thunderstorm development over the Great Basin
into the Four Corners region, with scattered thunderstorm
development also possible over the Northern Plains with the passage
of a mid-level trough. Finally, scattered thunderstorms may also
develop by afternoon peak heating amid a moist boundary layer along
the Gulf Coast into FL.

...Portions of New York...
A 500 mb speed max will rotate around the backside of the East Coast
trough by afternoon, when boundary-layer heating will support the
steepening of low-level lapse rates to about 7.5-8 C/km, resulting
in over 500 J/kg MLCAPE over central NY. While buoyancy will be weak
overall, the 500 mb speed max overspreading the region will result
in elongated mid/upper-level hodographs. As such, highly sheared and
low-topped multicell storms are expected to develop during the
afternoon. Some of the stronger storms may produce potentially
damaging wind gusts, necessitating the introduction of Category
1/Marginal risk probabilities.

..Squitieri.. 09/08/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 090544
SWODY2
SPC AC 090542

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are expected to develop on Tuesday across the Gulf
Coast region and from the Four Corners northward into the
north-central U.S. No severe threat is expected across the U.S.
Tuesday or Tuesday night.

...DISCUSSION...
A shortwave ridge will move eastward across the Great Lakes region
on Tuesday, as an upper-level trough develops near the West Coast. Southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place from the Intermountain
West into the central and northern Rockies. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday in the higher terrain from
the vicinity of the Four Corners northward into the northern Rockies
and northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Additional
storms will be possible along the Gulf Coast, near the northern edge
of a moist airmass. No severe threat is expected across the U.S. on
Tuesday and Tuesday night.

..Broyles.. 09/09/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 091731
SWODY2
SPC AC 091729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
LA GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Some tornado threat associated with Tropical Cyclone Francine may
approach the Louisiana Gulf Coast by early Wednesday morning.

...Synopsis...
Tropical Storm Francine will potentially intensify into a hurricane
as it moves north-northeastward across the western Gulf of Mexico.
Meanwhile, a strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to
dig southeastward into the Pacific Northwest and northern CA.
Diurnal thunderstorms capable of locally gusty winds will be
possible from the eastern Great Basin into parts of the Rockies, and
also across the FL Peninsula. More isolated storms will also be
possible from the central Plains into the parts of the upper
Midwest, which may also be capable of locally gusty winds. Organized severe-thunderstorm potential is expected to remain low, with the
possible exception of the LA Gulf Coast region late in the period in association with Francine.

...LA Gulf Coast vicinity...
Refer to NHC forecasts and advisories for more information regarding
Tropical Storm Francine. Based on the current forecast track, the
most favorable environment for low-topped supercells associated with
Francine should remain offshore for most of the forecast period.
However, some outer bands may begin to approach the LA Gulf Coast
prior to 12Z Wednesday morning, accompanied by an increase in
low-level shear/SRH. A small Marginal Risk has been included near
the immediate LA Gulf Coast for the potential of an increasing
tornado threat prior to the end of the forecast period.

..Dean.. 09/09/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 100543
SWODY2
SPC AC 100541

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH LA TO THE
COASTAL WESTERN FL PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes are possible across the central Gulf Coast vicinity
on Wednesday into Wednesday night, in association with Tropical
Cyclone Francine.

...Central Gulf Coast...
Per latest NHC forecasts and ensemble guidance, Tropical Storm
Francine is expected to become a hurricane over the northwest Gulf
and make landfall along the LA coast around Wednesday evening. A low-probability tornado threat with outer-band convection should
reach coastal LA by Wednesday morning. The more favorable overlap of strengthening low-level shear/SRH and intrusion of deeper tropical
moisture (surface dew points in the mid/upper 70s F) is expected
during the afternoon and evening across parts of south-central to
southeast LA and far southeast MS/southwest AL. As the TC progresses
inland and weakens Wednesday night, some broadening of the favorable SRH/surface-based buoyancy environment should spread east into the
coastal FL Panhandle. The northern extent of a low-probability
tornado threat remains uncertain, with surface-based buoyancy
potentially remaining quite limited into parts of central MS and
interior south AL Wednesday night.

...Interior Northwest to the northern High Plains...
A shortwave trough will progress inland from the coastal Pacific
Northwest, likely reaching the northern Rockies to central Great
Basin by 12Z Thursday. Large-scale ascent and cooling mid-level
temperatures attendant to the approaching trough will support
scattered thunderstorms across the interior Northwest on Wednesday
afternoon. While the bulk of strong mid-level flow will remain
displaced west of the shortwave trough, moderate enhancement of
southwesterlies will occur ahead of it. This should be adequate for
marginal updraft rotation amid weak surface-based buoyancy. Isolated
strong to localized severe gusts along with small to marginally
severe hail will be possible into the early evening.

Separately, isolated to widely scattered high-based, low-topped
thunderstorms should form in the late afternoon along a lee trough
towards a quasi-stationary front over the northern High Plains.
Meager buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear within a meridional wind
profile suggest sporadic severe gusts in microbursts will be the
main threat. Along the immediate north of the front, a confined
corridor of greater moisture/instability should be in place during
the afternoon/evening, but capping will likely limit surface-based
development. A few stronger elevated storms will be possible into
Wednesday night, but potential for severe hail appears negligible.

..Grams.. 09/10/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 101720
SWODY2
SPC AC 101719

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes are possible across the central Gulf Coast vicinity
on Wednesday into Wednesday night, in association with Tropical
Cyclone Francine.

...Northern Gulf Coast...
Francine is forecast to become a hurricane over the northwest Gulf
of Mexico, with strengthening wind fields overspreading much of the
central Gulf Coast states from Wednesday afternoon into the night.
Preceding this system, a stationary front will exist roughly
parallel to the coast, with the more unstable/tropical moisture to
the south.

As southerly winds increase east of the cyclone center, this will
lift the front north as a warm front, with mid 70s F dewpoints
spreading north across southern MS, AL, and the western FL
Panhandle. Rapidly enlarging hodographs in the vicinity of the warm
front may support a zone of tornado potential as bands of cells push
northward off the Gulf of Mexico and arc northwestward. Tornado
potential on the north side will be limited by the more stable air
due to high pressure to the north.

...Parts of the Northwest/Northern Rockies...
A strong shortwave trough will move across the Pacific Northwest and
into the Great Basin, with substantial cooling aloft. A cold front
will generally stretch from a low over western MT across central ID
and into northern NV during the afternoon, with the strongest
heating ahead of the front across NV, UT and western WY. Post
frontal rain and a few thunderstorms are likely near the developing
cold front early in the day from northern ID into eastern OR, with
diurnal convection developing over southeast OR, southwest ID and
northern NV. Deep-layer shear will not be particularly strong given
that the primary speed max will dive southeastward across the
Sierra. However, cool temperatures aloft may yield small hail, with
scattered strong gusts with the larger clusters of storms.
Additional marginally severe storms may occur from western MT into
northwest WY near the deepening surface trough and aided by very
steep lapse rates supporting strong gusts.

..Jewell.. 09/10/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 110552
SWODY2
SPC AC 110551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FL
PANHANDLE TO CENTRAL AL AND IN EASTERN MT...

...SUMMARY...
On Thursday, a few tornadoes will be possible, mainly in the morning
and afternoon from the Florida Panhandle to north-central Alabama.
Scattered large hail and severe gusts will also be possible across
the eastern Montana vicinity during the afternoon to early evening.

...FL Panhandle to the TN Valley...
Hurricane Francine is forecast by NHC to be in a weakening phase
from a tropical storm to a depression on Thursday, as it steadily
moves north from parts of western/central MS into the Mid-South.
With this process occurring throughout D2, tornado potential should
be focused during the first half of the period. Rather enlarged
low-level hodographs initially should gradually shrink from south to
north, but will remain overlapped with rich 70s surface dew points
through at least the afternoon. Consensus of CAM guidance largely
suggests multiple opportunities for convective bands during this
time frame. Primary threat in the morning should initially be
confined across the FL Panhandle into south AL. This should shift
north along the leading edge of the rich tropical moisture into
central to perhaps north AL during the afternoon. The northern
extent of the low-probability tornado threat over the TN Valley
appears nebulous, where scant surface-based buoyancy can become
coincident with large SRH.

...Eastern MT vicinity...
A northern Rockies to Great Basin shortwave trough will move
gradually east into the northern High Plains to central Rockies by
Thursday evening. Guidance remains highly consistent with the
ejection of an embedded impulse and attendant meridional mid-level
jetlet impinging on the eastern MT/WY region during the late
afternoon to early evening. This will increase large-scale ascent
and deep-layer shear, while being favorably timed with peak
boundary-layer heating.

Spread in guidance is greater with the degree of available buoyancy
as boundary-layer moisture remains limited. But a ribbon of low to
mid 50s surface dew points appears plausible on the backside of a
deep surface cyclone drifting from far eastern MT into south SK.
This would support a confined corridor of at least weak buoyancy,
which should be enhanced by cooling mid-level temperatures with the
approaching trough. Scattered thunderstorms should develop near the
WY/MT border area during the mid to late afternoon and quickly
advance north-northeast. Amid a highly elongated mid to upper
hodograph, long-lived mid-level rotation and small-scale bowing
segments may occur, capable of producing swaths of large hail and
severe gusts through about dusk.

..Grams.. 09/11/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 111713
SWODY2
SPC AC 111712

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1212 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO CENTRAL ALABAMA AND IN EASTERN MONTANA...

...SUMMARY...
On Thursday, a few tornadoes will be possible, mainly in the morning
and afternoon from the Florida Panhandle to north-central Alabama.
Scattered large hail and severe gusts will also be possible across
the eastern Montana vicinity during the afternoon to early evening.

...Synopsis...
A strong mid-level trough will become negatively tilted across the
northern Rockies on Thursday afternoon as a moderately strong
mid-level jet streak wraps around the southern periphery of the
primary trough. At the same time, Hurricane Francine will undergo
extratropical transition across portions of the Southeast.

...FL Panhandle to the TN Valley...
Thursday morning, backed surface winds and favorable hodographs for
low-level rotating updrafts will be present along the
Florida/Alabama coastal region. In addition, a tropical airmass with
upper 70s dewpoints will support MLCAPE of 2000+ J/kg during the
morning hours. South-southeasterly surface winds during the late
morning will veer to south-southwesterly by the early afternoon
hours which will lessen low-level shear and also lead to some
dry-air advection and weaker instability during the afternoon and
evening. Therefore, the primary tornado threat across the Florida
Panhandle and southern Alabama should be confined to the morning
hours.

By early-to-mid afternoon, guidance indicates at least some clearing
of cloud-cover across central Alabama which may result in some
surface heating and destabilization with MLCAPE of 1000 to 1500 J/kg
possible. The potential for this increase in diurnal instability may
overlap the period when the most favorable wind profile also exists
across the same region. This could result in a threat for a few
tornadic storms across central Alabama during the mid-to-late
afternoon period.

...Eastern Montana vicinity...
Strong forcing will overspread eastern Montana Thursday afternoon as
a mid-level shortwave trough approaches the region. A well-mixed,
relatively moisture-starved airmass will exist ahead of the cold
front/surface low. However, in the immediate wake of the cold front,
prior to the colder surface air, better moisture will wrap around
the surface low. This will lead to a narrow corridor of weak to
moderate instability and the potential for scattered thunderstorms.
Strong effective shear (55+ knots) will exist in this post-frontal
airmass where storms are anticipated. Therefore, supercells or a few
bowing segments may be possible with a threat for severe wind gusts
and large hail.

..Bentley.. 09/11/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 120536
SWODY2
SPC AC 120535

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE
TN VALLEY TO THE FL PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
A couple brief tornadoes and locally damaging winds are possible
across a part of the Southeast on Friday morning into the afternoon.

...Southeast...
The remnants of TC Francine are expected to decay in place near the
AR/TN/MO border vicinity on Friday, with greater weakening of
low-level winds relative to today. Still, the strongest lingering
belt of low-level southeasterlies should persist through Friday
morning into the afternoon to the east, centered on the TN Valley.
This should yield moderate SRH coincident with the northern extent
of weak surface-based instability from central AL/far western GA
northward into Middle TN. This corridor will likely be narrow at any
one time and steadily shift east through the day. A drier air mass
with veered low-level winds is expected to its west, and cooler
surface temps beneath pervasive cloudiness should occur to its
northeast. A couple brief tornadoes will be possible, mainly from
mid-morning into the afternoon.

Low-level winds will diminish with southern extent to the FL
Panhandle, but moderate mid-level southwesterlies should yield
adequate deep-layer shear for transient mid-level rotation. Modest boundary-layer heating of a residual tropical air mass should occur
within a corridor ahead of an occluded surface front. Locally strong
gusts capable of sporadic tree damage remain possible.

..Grams.. 09/12/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 121725
SWODY2
SPC AC 121724

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
TN VALLEY TO THE FL PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
A couple brief tornadoes and locally damaging winds are possible
across a part of the Southeast on Friday morning into the afternoon.

...Synopsis...
The remnants of TC Francine will begin the day somewhere across
eastern Arkansas and slowly drift east through the day while
weakening. A belt of moderate mid-level flow will persist across the
southern periphery of this remnant low. Farther west, a strong
mid-level trough across the northern Rockies will weaken and move
into the Canadian Prairies. A remnant surface cold front will
traverse the Northern Plains through the day on Friday.

...Portions of the Southeast...
A plume of tropical moisture will remain from the Florida Panhandle
into central Tennessee on Friday. A mostly uncapped airmass is
expected through the entire convective period. However, some greater instability is likely during the afternoon with some surface
heating. However, given the limited inhibition, convective
overturning is expected before more substantial instability can
develop. Nonetheless, an extended period of 1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE
with 25 to 30 knots of effective shear will support some multicell
clusters or occasional supercells. This may result in a brief
tornado or two and the potential for locally damaging wind gusts,
primarily during the afternoon/early evening on Friday.

...Northern Plains into the central Plains...
A line of thunderstorms will likely develop along a cold front in
North Dakota and South Dakota on Friday. However, instability will
be relatively limited and elevated (500-800 J/kg MUCAPE). This weak
instability combined with limited upper-level synoptic support,
should mitigate any severe weather threat.

Farther south, a few thunderstorms are possible in the Texas
Panhandle and into western Oklahoma in the vicinity of a
dryline/weak surface low where temperatures are expected to warm
into the low 90s. While a few storms may develop, significant
inhibition/dry air entrainment will likely keep the threat for more robust/severe convection muted.

..Bentley.. 09/12/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 130539
SWODY2
SPC AC 130537

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday.

...Central High Plains to central/western SD...
As a Pacific cold front stalls and decays Friday night over the
northern Great Plains, a north/south-oriented surface trough should
redevelop west by late Saturday afternoon from northeast CO to the
western Dakotas. While a minority of models suggest isolated
thunderstorms may form along this boundary, the majority suggests
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop during the
afternoon in the modest low-level warm theta-e advection regime
ahead of the trough. This regime may be aided by a low-amplitude
upper-level trough trailing southward from the Canadian Prairies,
but neutral to weak mid-level height rises are forecast during the
period. Upper flow will be weak near the trough, but sufficient
veering of low to mid-level winds with height may yield effective
bulk shear of 25-30 kts. Amid steep mid-level lapse rates, a couple
of storms could produce marginally severe hail. Moderate spatial
uncertainty with this corridor of risk, along with the marginal
nature of the conditional severe threat, precludes an areal
delineation.

...Southeast...
The remnants of post-TC Francine should slowly weaken and remain
nearly stationary in the Lower MS Valley. At least modest buoyancy
should be displaced well to its southeast across FL into south GA
and southeast AL on Saturday afternoon. Weaknesses in both
deep-layer shear and lapse rates above the boundary layer suggest
the threat for organized severe storms is negligible.

..Grams.. 09/13/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 131731
SWODY2
SPC AC 131730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday.

...North-Central High Plains including parts of NE/SD...
A north/south-oriented boundary will be in place Saturday afternoon
and evening across the north-central High Plains, spanning northeast
Colorado and western Nebraska into the western Dakotas. Influenced
by stronger westerlies centered over the Pacific Northwest,
semi-cool mid-level temperatures and relatively steep lapse rates
will coincide with 50s F surface dewpoints near/east of the surface trough/boundary, leading to 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE by mid-afternoon. At
least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by
mid/late afternoon. Effective shear of 25-30 kt could support some multicellular storm sustenance. A few of these storms could produce
marginally severe hail and/or strong wind gusts, although some spatial/intensity details very in guidance. Subsequent outlooks into
the Day 1 time frame will reevaluate for the potential introduction
of severe probabilities.

...Southeast...
The remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Francine will continue to
weaken and remain nearly stationary across the Lower Mississippi
Valley on Saturday. At least modest buoyancy should be displaced
well to its southeast across Florida and the coastal Southeast
Saturday afternoon, well away from the Tennessee Valley. The overall
potential for organized severe storms appears low.

..Guyer.. 09/13/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 140545
SWODY2
SPC AC 140544

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected Sunday.

...Discussion...
A blocking upper pattern will hold in the East, with a stout
mid-level anticyclone over the Lower Great Lakes and the remnants of
post-TC Francine in the Lower MS Valley. A strong mid/upper jet
approaching the Pacific Coast will yield a closed mid/upper low over
northern to central CA by Sunday night. Strengthening large-scale
ascent downstream should foster a broadening area of low-probability thunderstorm potential in the West amid scant buoyancy north of AZ.
During the late afternoon, moderate MLCAPE should develop across
parts of the western Great Plains to central TX. This could be
sufficient for a few strong, but pulse-type thunderstorms given
predominantly weak shear.

..Grams.. 09/14/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 141723
SWODY2
SPC AC 141722

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday
afternoon and evening across parts of the central High Plains.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough currently residing over the northeastern
Pacific is forecast to deepen substantially over the next 48 hours
along the West Coast. This will establish a broad swath of
strengthening south/southwesterly flow across the greater Great
Basin region into the central/northern Rockies. Low-level moisture
return into the central Plains should increase as a lee surface
trough slowly deepens in response to the evolving upper-level
pattern. The increasing moisture/buoyancy quality may support some intensification of convection as it migrates out of the central
Rockies and into the High Plains Sunday afternoon and evening.

...Central High Plains...
High-based convection is expected to develop within the central
Rockies by mid/late afternoon Sunday as a combination of deep-layer
ascent and diurnal warming steepen lapse rates. Isolated
thunderstorms are also possible in the vicinity of a deepening
surface trough across eastern WY/northeast CO where surface pressure
falls are currently expected to be strongest. Forecast guidance
suggests that this activity will intensify as it migrates northeast
and impinges on the western periphery of the moisture reservoir to
the east of the surface trough where MLCAPE values may be as high as
1000-2000 J/kg. While the central High Plains will likely remain
displaced from the strongest mid/upper-level flow, 25-30 knot
mid-level winds with modest low-level flow should provide sufficient
deep-layer shear to support some degree of storm organization with
an attendant large hail threat. Additionally, boundary-layer mixing
on the edge of the deeper moisture will be adequately deep
(mixed-layer LCLs near 2.5 km AGL) to support strong to severe gusts
with the more organized cells and/or clusters.

...Great Basin/Four Corners...
Increasing broad scale ascent over the Great Basin and Four Corners
region should result in isolated to scattered thunderstorm
development by late afternoon. While some degree of moisture return
is anticipated from the Gulf of California across southern AZ, most
regions will remain fairly warm and dry in the low-levels. Such
thermodynamic conditions will be conducive for dry downbursts that
may be capable of very localized strong to severe gusts. The
predictability of where such gusts are most likely across the
broader region remains too limited to warrant risk probabilities.

..Moore.. 09/14/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 150557
SWODY2
SPC AC 150556

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN
GREAT BASIN TO FOUR CORNERS...THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE
NORTH...AND EASTERN NC...

...SUMMARY...
On Monday, sporadic severe gusts and marginally severe hail will be
possible during the afternoon to early evening across parts of the
eastern Great Basin to Four Corners. Isolated, marginally severe
storms are possible over eastern North Dakota into northwest
Minnesota during the late afternoon and evening. A low-probability
tornado threat may develop over eastern North Carolina.

...Eastern Great Basin to the Four Corners...
An amplified mid-level low near the Bay Area at 12Z Monday should
initially move east before curling northeast Monday night towards
the NV/UT/ID border area. This will occur in response to a strong
mid-level jet translating through the basal portion of the
large-scale trough across the Desert Southwest into the eastern
Great Basin. Convection should be ongoing Monday morning immediately
ahead of the mid-level low and separately in the low-level
warm/moist conveyor over the Four Corners region. Greater
boundary-layer heating should occur between these two regimes across
eastern NV into UT, west of the Wasatch Range. Despite meager
MLCAPE, the deepening boundary layer amid a strengthening meridional
wind profile should yield efficient downward mixing. This will be
further augmented by evaporatively cooled downdraft accelerations
and promote a threat for sporadic severe gusts.

Farther southeast, a more southwesterly mid to upper-flow regime
should yield hodograph elongation, supporting a few splitting
supercells. Warmer mid-level temperatures and correspondingly weaker
lapse rates will temper parcel acceleration to an extent, but this
may be offset by somewhat higher PW values. Marginal severe
hail/gusts will be possible.

...Eastern ND to northwest MN...
With the primary upper-level trough displaced well to the west,
deep-layer shear will remain weak across much of the Great Plains.
However, most guidance suggests an MCV will emanate out of D1
central High Plains convection and gradually progress northeast
towards the Red River Valley. In conjunction with the northern nose
of a strengthening central to northern Great Plains low-level jet, a
focused corridor for regenerative thunderstorm development may occur
during the late afternoon and evening. Some low-level hodograph
enlargement should support a predominantly clustered convective
mode, with transient supercell structures possible. An isolated,
lower-end severe hail/wind threat may develop, and a brief tornado
is also possible.

...Coastal NC...
While guidance consensus increasingly favors offshore cyclogenesis,
the amplitude of this development along with timing of inland
progression remain quite varied for a D2 forecast. The 00Z NAM and
some of the 18Z ECMWF ENS members suggest particularly robust
deepening will occur. The more aggressive scenarios would yield
substantial enlargement of low-level hodographs, likely becoming
coupled with a narrow swath of high theta-e air spreading
west-northwestward from the Gulf Stream. Given the potential range
of scenarios from nil threat to multiple tornadic supercells, a
low-probability tornado highlight appears warranted.

..Grams.. 09/15/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 151727
SWODY2
SPC AC 151725

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN
GREAT BASIN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...ND INTO NORTHWEST
MN...EASTERN NC AND VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
On Monday, sporadic severe gusts and hail will be possible during
the afternoon to early evening across parts of the eastern Great
Basin to Four Corners. Isolated severe storms are possible over
eastern North Dakota into northwest Minnesota. Some tornado threat
may develop over eastern North Carolina and vicinity.

...Eastern Great Basin to the Four Corners...
A seasonably strong mid-level low initially near San Francisco Bay
Monday morning should move east during the day, before curling
northeast Monday night towards the NV/UT/ID border area. This will
occur in response to a strong mid-level jet translating through the
basal portion of the large-scale trough across the Desert Southwest
into the eastern Great Basin.

Convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the forecast
period near the midlevel low, and also farther east toward the Four
Corners region, within the warm/moist conveyor. Relatively strong
heating will be possible between these two regimes, from eastern NV
into parts of UT. While buoyancy will likely remain quite weak
within this warmer and more well-mixed regime, high-based convection
will be possible during the afternoon and evening as the midlevel
low approaches the region, with increasing meridional flow and a
deeply mixed boundary layer supporting isolated severe gusts.

Farther southeast into eastern UT and the Four Corners vicinity,
increasing southwesterly flow aloft and strengthening deep-layer
shear will become conditionally supportive of organized convection.
Warmer midlevel temperatures may limit buoyancy to some extent,
though sufficient moisture will support afternoon MLCAPE of 500-1000
J/kg. A few supercells will be possible within this regime, with an
attendant threat of isolated severe gusts and hail.

...Parts of ND into northern MN...
With the primary upper-level trough displaced well to the west,
deep-layer shear will remain weak across much of the Great Plains.
However, most guidance suggests an MCV will emanate out of central
High Plains convection on D1/Sunday and gradually progress northeast
towards the Red River Valley during the day on Monday. In
conjunction with a strengthening low-level jet, this MCV may help to
support relatively vigorous storm redevelopment within a moderately
unstable environment during the afternoon and evening.

Stronger midlevel flow attendant to the MCV could support some storm organization, and a couple supercells and/or stronger clusters will
be possible, with a threat of isolated hail and damaging wind.
Somewhat favorable low-level shear/SRH could also support a tornado
threat, if a surface-based supercell can be sustained. Uncertainty
remains regarding the strength/timing of any MCV moving across the
region, along with the most favored corridor for diurnal storm
development.

...Eastern NC and vicinity...
Guidance generally suggests that an initially offshore surface low
will move northward or northwestward from later on D1/Sunday into
D2/Monday and D3/Tuesday, and eventually move inland across some
part of the Carolinas. However, uncertainty remains regarding the
timing, track, and intensity of this low, along with the extent to
which it acquires any tropical or subtropical characteristics.

If a deepening low does move onshore, then a higher theta-e airmass
may move inland, accompanied by increasing low-level shear/SRH
along/north of the low track. While the general scenario supports
some potential for low-topped supercells, the magnitude of any
tornado threat will be dependent on the extent of intensification
that occurs with the low (and its attendant wind fields) prior to
landfall. The Marginal Risk has been expanded somewhat across
eastern NC and vicinity, in response to the various uncertainties.

..Dean.. 09/15/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 160600
SWODY2
SPC AC 160559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AND EASTERN MT...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe gusts and hail are possible Tuesday
across a large swath of the High Plains region, mainly from late
afternoon into the evening. The greater concentrations of severe
storms may occur over the central High Plains and eastern Montana.

...High Plains...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially over the eastern Great
Basin will take on a negative tilt as it advances towards the
northern High Plains. Deep lee cyclogenesis is expected over far
northeast WY/southeast MT, with a warm front arcing east across
parts of the Dakotas. This low will advance north then northwestward
across eastern MT through 12Z Wednesday.

Large-scale ascent will be pronounced within this synoptic regime,
with favorable upper-level difluence, mid-level height falls, and
low-level convergence. However, weak buoyancy and modest mid-level
lapse rates will characterize much of the environment to the south
of the surface cyclone and warm front. Aided by a subtropical
moisture plume over the Southwest, morning convection near the Four
Corners region should move across the higher terrain and expand in
coverage into the afternoon.

High-based storms over the central and southern High Plains will
progress into a well-mixed boundary layer that may initially be
devoid of appreciable CAPE. This lack of greater buoyancy during the
late afternoon to early evening (outside of areas north of the warm
front) yields some uncertainty regarding the degree of storm
intensity into the lower elevations. But with scattered to
eventually widespread convection expected with time, extensive
outflows are expected to push east. The most likely corridor for
severe gusts appears to be over the central High Plains where the
most pronounced 700-500 mb flow should advance ahead of the
negative-tilt shortwave trough. Farther south, a few supercells may
initially develop from parts of NM into southeast CO. Modest
mid-level lapse rates should temper updraft vigor, but marginally
severe hail along with isolated severe gusts will be possible.

More favorable low-level moisture with steep mid-level lapse rates
will reside near/north of the warm front, supporting moderate
buoyancy from northeast MT into ND. While stronger ascent and
deep-layer flow may not impinge upon areas north of the front until
near sunset, organized storms should develop over the higher terrain
by late afternoon and spread north within a backed mid-level flow
regime. A few supercells along with an organized cluster or two may
impinge on the greater downstream buoyancy plume, maintaining
threats for large hail and severe gusts into Tuesday night.

...Eastern NC and southeast VA...
While confidence is modest with the probable inland evolution of PTC
8, the bulk signal across guidance is for a weakening low-level wind
field by Tuesday morning across the NC/VA coastal plain. The
potential for low-topped supercells capable of brief tornadoes
appears too low beyond 12Z Tuesday to warrant a risk highlight.

..Grams.. 09/16/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 161732
SWODY2
SPC AC 161730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe gusts and hail are possible Tuesday
across a large swath of the High Plains region, mainly from late
afternoon into the evening. The greater concentrations of severe
storms may occur over the central High Plains into northeast
Montana.

...Synopsis...

A mid/upper cyclone is forecast over the Great Basin Tuesday
morning. This system will pivot northeast across the central Rockies
and into the northern High Plains through the forecast period. This
will bring a belt of strong south/southwesterly deep-layer flow
across CO/WY and adjacent portions of the High Plains. A surface low
will deepen over MT through the period, with a surface trough
extending southward through the central/southern High Plains. A warm
front is forecast to extend west to east from southeast MT into
north-central SD during the morning. With time, this boundary will
lift northward toward the International border during the nighttime
hours. As the system deepens and the low-level baroclinic zone over
the Plains strengthens, 850-700 mb flow is forecast to markedly
increase during the afternoon/evening to 30-50 kt. While deeper
boundary-layer moisture is forecast to remain east of the surface
trough axis and north of the warm front, steep midlevel lapse rates
will support pockets of weak to moderate instability. An arc of
thunderstorm activity, with a mix of line segments and discrete
cells, are expected to develop in the vicinity of the surface
low/warm front south/southeast along the surface trough during the
afternoon and evening hours.

...Eastern MT...

Strong ascent will overspread the region as the upper trough pivots
northeast during the late afternoon/evening. Boundary-layer moisture
will be greatest to the north of the warm front across
north-central/northeast MT, but capping will likely remain in place.
Storm motion will likely result in convection remaining elevated to
the cool side of the warm front. Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse
rates and favorable vertical shear (elongated/straight hodographs)
will support some risk for large hail. As stronger forcing and
sufficient erosion of capping can overlap during the evening, strong
to severe wind gusts also will be possible.

...Northern/Central High Plains Vicinity...

Convection is expected to develop over the higher terrain of CO/WY
during the afternoon. Given strengthening mid/upper flow and weak
instability, some locally strong gusts could occur with this initial
activity near the core of the upper low over western/central CO. As
convection shifts east/northeast through the afternoon and into the
evening, strong heating is expected to result in a steep low-level
lapse rate environment across the High Plains. While deep
boundary-layer moisture will remain further east across the Plains,
steep midlevel lapse rates and surface dewpoints in the 50s F will
result in a corridor of around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE from far
eastern CO into parts of western NE/SD. Strengthening midlevel flow
atop a deeply mixed boundary-layer will likely support severe gusts
(isolated gusts to 75 mph possible) with linear segments spreading
northeast across the central High Plains during the late
afternoon/evening.

...Southern High Plains Vicinity...

Further south, large-scale ascent will be weaker, with stronger
height falls focused north of the region. Nevertheless, low-level
convergence along the surface trough and modest instability (up to
1000 J/kg MLCAPE) will support initial thunderstorm development over
the higher terrain of south-central CO into north-central NM.
Forecast soundings show supercell wind profiles across the adjacent
High Plains by afternoon. Midlevel lapse rates will be somewhat
modest (around 6.5-7 C/km), but elongated/straight hodographs and
plenty of instability through the 700-300 mb layer suggest isolated
hail is possible. Steep low-level lapse rates also will support
isolated strong to severe gusts.

..Leitman.. 09/16/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 170553
SWODY2
SPC AC 170552

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GREAT
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe wind and hail are possible across a portion of the
Great Plains during the late afternoon and evening on Wednesday.

...Great Plains...
A vertically stacked cyclone over eastern MT at 12Z Wednesday should
drift towards the ND/SK/MB border area. A mid-level jetlet of 50-60
kt winds at 500 mb should be confined within the dry slot, near the
ND/SD border area on Wednesday afternoon. A dryline should become
established from the eastern Dakotas to the southern High Plains.
Remnant convective outflows from overnight to decaying morning
convection are expected in the confined moist sector ahead of the
dryline. The primary cold front attendant to the cyclone should
gradually push east in the Dakotas and eventually merge with the
retreating dryline early morning Thursday.

Large-scale ascent ahead of the dryline appears nebulous for
surface-based storms during the afternoon to early evening.
Lingering outflows and areas of greater boundary-layer heating
should serve to focus isolated thunderstorm development. Guidance
varies greatly with placement of convection given the weak forcing
for ascent regime. But with a confined plume of moderate MLCAPE from
1500-2000 J/kg and 30-35 kt effective bulk shear, a conditional
lower-end supercell environment will exist. Relatively warm
mid-level temperatures will contribute to weaker lapse rates south
of the Mid-MO Valley, likely being a mitigating factor to more
robust updrafts where sustained storms can occur. The bulk of
guidance, outside of the 00Z GFS and RRFS, suggest sustained storm
development farther north will primarily be a result of low-level
warm theta-e advection Wednesday night. As such, severe storm
coverage will probably remain rather isolated.

..Grams.. 09/17/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 171709
SWODY2
SPC AC 171708

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1208 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE GREAT PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe wind and hail are possible across a portion of the
Great Plains during the late afternoon and evening on Wednesday.

...Great Plains...

A stacked cyclone will slowly shift east/northeast from eastern MT
to southern SK/MB on Wednesday into early Thursday. At the surface,
a dryline will be oriented from the eastern Dakotas into
western/central NE, then southward across western KS and into the
OK/TX Panhandle vicinity. With time, a cold front will merge with
this feature on the northern end across the Dakotas during the
nighttime hours. Deep-layer south/southwesterly flow will remain
somewhat enhanced across the northern/central Plains toward the
Upper Midwest as the mid/upper trough shifts east. Around 30-35 kt
effective shear magnitudes are forecast along the extent of the
dryline. Meanwhile, surface dewpoints in the 60s will be maintained
ahead of the surface boundary in a persistent southerly low-level
warm advection regime. Midlevel temperatures are forecast to be
somewhat warm, precluding steeper lapse rates. Nevertheless,
1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected, with the greatest instability
expected near/north of the Mid-MO Valley.

Weakening convection may be ongoing Wednesday morning in the
vicinity of the Mid-MO valley, with areas of cloud cover extending
northward into MN. Where stronger heating occurs, low-level
convergence along the surface dryline and any remnant outflow
boundaries may focus thunderstorm development during the afternoon.
Large-scale ascent will be nebulous, with stronger forcing focused
near/north of the international border. Instability and shear will
decrease with southward extent into KS and the southern Plains. This
will limit coverage and intensity of convection to some degree.
Nevertheless, isolated strong to severe storms may pose a risk for
locally damaging gusts and hail.

Additional thunderstorms may develop overnight as the surface cold
front overtakes the dryline from the far eastern Dakotas into MN.
This activity will be driven by warm advection and likely be
elevated. Severe potential currently appears low beyond the 03-06z
time frame.

..Leitman.. 09/17/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 180557
SWODY2
SPC AC 180555

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from mid-afternoon to
mid-evening on Thursday across central/eastern Minnesota, northern
Iowa, and western Wisconsin. A few tornadoes, isolated very large
hail, and damaging winds may occur.

...Upper Midwest...
A vertically stacked cyclone near the ND/SK/MB border area on
Thursday morning will advance northeast across MB through the
period. Mid-level west-southwesterlies will remain enhanced (35-50
kt from 700-500 mb) through the afternoon to the south-southeast of
this cyclone, before the system as a whole weakens and progresses
farther away from the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a cold front
will arc south, and progress east over MN/IA. Ahead of the front, a
confined plume of mid to upper 60s surface dew points will be
maintained, but will decrease within a drier boundary layer deeper
into WI and IL. The aforementioned flow regime will yield initially
steep mid-level lapse rates from 7-8 C/km through early afternoon.
Coupled with the rich buoyancy plume, moderate to large MLCAPE of
2000-3000 J/kg appears plausible, northeast of the Mid-MO Valley.

Guidance spread does exist with the timing and related spatial
placement of initial thunderstorm development along the front. Some
models suggest scattered convection should form during the early to
mid afternoon, while others are delayed until the late afternoon.
This may be related to the strength of the elevated mixed layer and
timing of weakened MLCIN. This uncertainty within a limited
longitudinal extent of greater threat, precludes a level 3-ENH risk.
The conditional large to very large hail threat appears favorable
amid a vertically veering wind profile with height that will support
initial supercells. While some clustering is possible owing to
frontal convergence, the bulk of severe convection may remain tied
to semi-discrete supercells given the nearly perpendicular mid-level
wind profile to the front and moderately enlarged low-level
hodograph. This should support potential for a few tornadoes as
well. Clustering should become more prominent after sunset, but the
severe threat is expected to diminish soon after dusk as activity
outpaces the nocturnally shrinking buoyancy plume.

..Grams.. 09/18/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 181732
SWODY2
SPC AC 181730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from mid-afternoon to
mid-evening on Thursday across central/eastern Minnesota, Iowa, and
western Wisconsin. A few tornadoes, isolated very large hail, and
damaging winds may occur.

...Upper Midwest...
A seasonably strong stacked cyclone initially near the ND/SK/MB
border region is forecast to move northeastward through the period.
An attendant cold front will move eastward through the day across
parts of the upper Midwest and central Plains. Diurnal heating of a
rather moist airmass along/east of the front will support a
relatively narrow zone of moderate to large MLCAPE (1500-3000 J/kg)
by peak heating. Moderate midlevel flow will support sufficient
effective shear for storm organization, with shear vectors generally
aligned perpendicular to the front. This will support supercell
potential from central/eastern MN into western WI and parts of IA,
though the timing of initial development and western extent of the
primary severe threat remain somewhat uncertain.

Favorable instability and an initially discrete storm mode will
support large to very large hail as storms mature, along with some
potential for isolated damaging wind. Low-level hodographs will also
be sufficiently curved/enlarged to support a tornado threat. A
tendency toward clustering and perhaps some modest upscale growth is
possible later in the storm evolution, with a severe threat likely
persisting into the early/mid evening. The threat should begin to
wane by late evening into Thursday night, as instability weakens
with time and eastward extent.

...Eastern KS/northern OK into southeast NE/western MO...
A conditionally favorable storm environment is also expected to
develop from southeast NE into eastern KS/western MO and northern
OK, along/ahead of the approaching front. While storm coverage will
generally be less compared to areas farther north (due to weaker
large-scale ascent), isolated supercells and/or stronger clusters
will be possible from late afternoon into the evening. Increasingly
warm midlevel temperatures will tend to limit updraft intensity with
southward extent, but an isolated severe threat could extend as far
south as northern OK.

..Dean.. 09/18/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 190551
SWODY2
SPC AC 190549

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE
MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms are possible in the late
afternoon Friday in parts of Illinois, Indiana, and southwest Lower
Michigan.

...Midwest...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough will pass across the Upper to
Central Great Lakes during the first half of the period. This will
outpace a cold front that trails from a cyclone shifting northeast
in MB, yielding a largely weakening to stalling front by Friday
evening. Most guidance suggests at least isolated thunderstorms
should form within a low-level warm conveyor ahead of the front,
generally focused on a moderate buoyancy plume emanating northeast
from parts of MO/AR. A fast westerly upper jet will further impinge
on this portion of the front as well, favorably timed with peak
boundary-layer heating. A few marginally severe storms may develop
within this regime. Despite weak mid-level lapse rates, elongation
of the mid to upper hodograph should support a threat for 1-1.5 inch
hail, along with strong to marginally severe gusts from 45-60 mph.
These threats should diminish quickly after sunset.

...Southern High Plains...
Locally strong gusts are possible during the late afternoon to early
evening with high-based, low-topped convection amid a weak buoyancy environment. The region will remain between a stout mid-level
anticyclone over the Lower Rio Grande Valley and a southern-stream
shortwave trough slowly moving across CA into AZ. Relatively warm
mid-level temperatures should preclude appreciable storm intensity,
but well-mixed boundary layers could support sporadic gusts
approaching severe levels.

...Central Great Plains...
Isolated elevated storms may develop overnight into Saturday morning
within a strengthening warm theta-e advection regime. Weak mid-level
lapse rates should temper elevated buoyancy and limit hail potential
to some extent. But sufficient mid to upper-level speed shear could
foster small hail production.

..Grams.. 09/19/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 191732
SWODY2
SPC AC 191730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
MIDWEST AND ALSO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible in the late
afternoon Friday in parts of Illinois, Indiana, and southwest Lower
Michigan. Isolated strong to severe storms are also possible across
parts of the south-central Plains.

...Midwest...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough will pass across the Upper to
central Great Lakes during the first half of the period. This will
outpace a cold front that trails from a cyclone shifting northeast
in MB, yielding a largely weakening to stalling front by Friday
evening. Most guidance suggests at least isolated thunderstorms
should form within a low-level warm conveyor ahead of the front,
generally focused on a moderate buoyancy plume emanating northeast
from parts of MO/AR. A fast westerly upper jet will further impinge
on this portion of the front as well, favorably timed with peak
boundary-layer heating. A few marginally severe storms may develop
within this regime. Despite weak mid-level lapse rates, elongation
of the mid to upper hodograph should support a threat for 1-1.5 inch
hail, along with strong to marginally severe gusts from 45-60 mph.
These threats should diminish quickly after sunset.

...Southern KS/northern OK vicinity...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move slowly
eastward across the Southwest on Friday. Farther east, a surface
boundary initially draped from the lower MO Valley into southern
KS/northern OK is forecast to lift northward as a warm front.
Large-scale ascent across much of the Plains may remain relatively
limited, outside of low-level warm advection near/north of the
front. However, relatively strong heating along the western/northern
periphery of returning low-level moisture could support thunderstorm development during the afternoon somewhere in the vicinity of
southwest KS/northwest OK. Effective shear of 30-40 kt will support
potential for somewhat organized convection. Strong to localized
severe gusts may be the most likely hazard, but hail cannot be ruled
out if any more discrete storms can move into an environment of
greater moisture/instability.

...New Mexico...
Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across much of NM on
Friday, in closer proximity to the approaching shortwave trough.
While deep-layer shear will be rather strong, generally weak
midlevel lapse rates and buoyancy may tend to limit the potential
for more robust storms. If confidence increases regarding sufficient heating/destabilization, then severe probabilities may eventually be
needed for parts of the region.

...Central Plains into the lower MO Valley...
Guidance continues to vary regarding the potential for robust
elevated convection Friday night into Saturday morning, within a
low-level warm advection regime. Increasing elevated buoyancy and
sufficient mid/upper-level flow could support a few stronger storms
with hail potential, but confidence in sufficient coverage and a
favored region for this potential is too low for probabilities at
this time.

..Dean.. 09/19/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 200525
SWODY2
SPC AC 200523

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday afternoon to
early evening in New Mexico and the southern High Plains, the mid
Missouri Valley to upper Mississippi Valley, and central
Appalachians region.

...Southern High Plains vicinity...

A southern stream upper low and attendant trough will progress east
across the Four Corners and southern Rockies on Saturday. An area of
enhanced southwesterly flow aloft associated with the ejecting
trough will become oriented over eastern NM into the OK/TX
Panhandles by 00z/Sun. While strong heating will result in some
boundary layer mixing, south/southeasterly low-level flow will
result in persistent theta-e advection, and dewpoints from the upper
50s to low 60s F are expected. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will
contribute to modest destabilization, with 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE
forecast across parts of eastern NM into the TX Panhandle/South
Plains vicinity. Vertically veering wind profiles amid strengthening
midlevel flow will support isolated supercell thunderstorms. Large
hail and sporadic strong/severe gusts are possible. Given increasing consistency in forecast guidance, a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) has
been included for parts of the eastern NM Plains into west Texas.

Additional strong storms are possible to the north and west across
northeast NM into south-central CO beneath the core of mid/upper
low. Instability will be weaker across this area, but isolated
strong gusts and marginal hail will still be possible with the
strongest storms.

...Western PA into northern/central VA...

A low-amplitude mid/upper shortwave trough is forecast to move
across the Northeast on Saturday. Northwesterly deep-layer flow will
overspread the Upper OH Valley toward the Mid-Atlantic coast. A
corridor of low to mid 60s F dewpoints and pockets of stronger
heating will support weak destabilization. Modest vertical shear
(around 20-25 kt effective shear) will aid in at least transient
organized updrafts. Elongated/straight hodographs and cool
temperatures aloft suggest marginally severe hail will be possible
with the stronger cells. Locally strong gusts also will be possible
where stronger heating and steepening of low-level lapse rates
occurs.

...Central Plains to Mid-MO/Upper MS Valley...

The forecast for this region remains quite uncertain for Saturday.
Most guidance depicts some degree of convection ongoing across parts
of IA/MO Saturday morning. The evolution of this activity will
impact how the airmass destabilizes/recovers late in the afternoon
across the region. Nevertheless, large-scale ascent will increase
over the Upper Midwest as a northern stream upper trough traverses
the Canadian Prairies and the international border vicinity.
Southerly low-level flow will maintain 60s dewpoints ahead of a cold
front tracking southeast across MN and the Mid-MO/Upper MS Valley
from late afternoon into the evening. Isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms producing hail and gusty winds will be possible, but
the overall risk remains uncertain.

..Leitman.. 09/20/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 201727
SWODY2
SPC AC 201725

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN NM AND WEST TX...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are possible Saturday afternoon to early
evening across parts of the southern High Plains. Isolated strong to
severe thunderstorms are also possible from the mid Missouri Valley
to the Upper Midwest, and also from western Pennsylvania into
northern/central Virginia.

...Southern High Plains vicinity...
A southern stream mid/upper-level low and attendant trough will
progress east across the Four Corners and southern Rockies on
Saturday. Strong southwesterly flow aloft associated with the
ejecting trough will become oriented over eastern NM into the OK/TX
Panhandles by 00z/Sunday. While diurnal heating will result in some
boundary layer mixing, south/southeasterly low-level flow will
result in persistent theta-e advection, and dewpoints from the upper
50s to low 60s F are expected. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will
contribute to modest destabilization, with 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE
forecast across parts of eastern NM into the TX Panhandle/South
Plains vicinity. Vertically veering wind profiles amid strengthening
midlevel flow will support supercells, though a tendency toward
increasing storm coverage and redevelopment may result in some
clustering with time. Large hail, sporadic strong/severe gusts, and
a tornado or two are all possible.

Additional strong storms are possible to the north and west across
northern NM into south-central CO beneath the core of mid/upper low. Instability will be weaker across this area, but isolated strong
gusts and hail will still be possible with the strongest storms.

...Western PA into northern/central VA...
A low-amplitude mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move
across the Northeast on Saturday. Northwesterly deep-layer flow will
overspread the Upper OH Valley toward the Mid-Atlantic coast. A
corridor of low to mid 60s F dewpoints and pockets of stronger
heating will support weak to locally moderate destabilization.
Modest vertical shear (around 25-30 kt effective shear) will aid in
at least transient organized updrafts. Elongated/straight hodographs
and relatively cool temperatures aloft suggest marginally severe
hail will be possible with the stronger cells. Locally strong gusts
also will be possible where stronger heating and steepening of
low-level lapse rates occurs.

...Central Plains to Mid-MO Valley and Upper Midwest...
The forecast for this region remains quite uncertain for Saturday.
Most guidance depicts ongoing elevated convection across parts of
IA/MO Saturday morning. The evolution of this activity will impact
how the airmass destabilizes/recovers late in the afternoon across
the region. Nevertheless, thunderstorm development may increase
during the afternoon/evening over the Upper Midwest into the mid MO
Valley, as a northern stream upper trough traverses the Canadian
Prairies and the international border vicinity, and an attendant
cold front moves through the region.

In areas that are not overly affected by early-day convection,
diurnal heating and relatively steep midlevel lapse rates atop 60s F
dewpoints will support moderate destabilization, while deep-layer
shear becomes at least marginally supportive of organized storms.
Some guidance suggests a cluster of elevated convection may develop
across Iowa during the morning and intensify as it moves
east-northeastward. Otherwise, isolated storms may develop near the
front during the afternoon, with increasing storm coverage into the
evening. Relatively elongated hodographs will support some hail
potential with the strongest storms, while localized damaging winds
will also be possible, especially if any stronger clusters do evolve
with time.

Farther south, the magnitude of destabilization into central KS
remains uncertain and could be rather limited, though increasing
midlevel flow would support some organized convection if robust
storms can develop. A strong storm or two also cannot be ruled out
with morning convection across MO, and again near any outflow
boundaries during the afternoon/evening. However, confidence remains
quite low regarding storm evolution in this area.

..Dean.. 09/20/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 210515
SWODY2
SPC AC 210513

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1213 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS
INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from west Texas
to central/southern Missouri.

...Southern Plains to Mid-MS Valley...

Forecast guidance has trended somewhat southward with severe
potential on Sunday, and the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been
adjusted to reflect latest model trends.

An upper shortwave trough over the central/southern Rockies Sunday
morning will eject east to the mid-MS Valley by Monday morning. This
will bring a belt of 40-50 kt mid/upper southwesterly flow over the
region. At the surface, a cold front will develop southeast from
near Lake Michigan to northwest Texas at midday to the Ohio Valley
and central Texas by 12z Monday. A seasonally moist airmass will be
in place ahead of the front, with surface dewpoints in the mid to
upper 60s F forecast. Some uncertainty remains in where the corridor
of greater strong/severe storm potential will develop, mainly driven
by ongoing convection across parts of the region Sunday morning.
Nevertheless, where pockets of greater heating occur, favorable
vertical shear and increasing forcing from both the surface front
and the ejecting midlevel wave, will support organized storm
development. Damaging gusts will be the main hazard with
thunderstorm clusters and line segments. However, vertical shear may
be suitable for a few supercells, especially across west Texas.
Isolated large hail will be possible with any more discrete cells
that develop and can be maintained ahead of the front.

..Leitman.. 09/21/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 211723
SWODY2
SPC AC 211721

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS
TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from west Texas
to central/southern Missouri.

...Synopsis...
A filling mid-level low will move toward the central High Plains on
Sunday afternoon/evening. Moderate mid-level flow will maintain
southeast of this low and overspread the Oklahoma/southern Kansas
vicinity. At the surface, a cold front will extend from southern
Michigan across Illinois and Missouri and into Oklahoma and Texas.

...Southern Missouri across Oklahoma and into West Texas...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along and ahead of the surface
front across the TX Panhandle and into Oklahoma and from central
Kansas, across Missouri, and to southern Illinois Sunday morning. A
seasonally moist airmass featuring upper 60s to perhaps low 70s
dewpoints will exist ahead of the surface front Sunday
afternoon/evening. Surface heating ahead of the front should result
in moderate instability amid a marginally sheared airmass. A few stronger/organized storms are possible with a primary threat of
damaging wind gusts, especially where any clustering or line
segments can develop. Some large hail is also possible, where a few
supercells are possible across northwest Texas and West Texas.

The severe threat will be primarily diurnally driven with minimal
severe concerns after 1-3 UTC.

..Bentley.. 09/21/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 220522
SWODY2
SPC AC 220520

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS
INTO PARTS OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Ozarks
into parts of Kentucky and Tennessee on Monday.

...Ozarks to KY/TN...

An upper shortwave trough from the Mid/Lower MO Valley to the
southern Plains vicinity will not progress eastward very much on
Monday. However, enhanced midlevel flow (around 40 kt at 500 mb)
associated with this feature will overspread the Ozarks to the Lower
OH and TN Valley vicinity. At the surface, a cold front will develop
south and east across southern MO and AR, becoming located near the
MS River by 12z Tuesday. Meanwhile a quasi-stationary surface
boundary will be oriented west to east near the OH River.

While a moist boundary layer will exist across the warm sector,
bounded by these surface fronts, considerable uncertainty remains in
the Day 2/Mon forecast. This uncertainty is largely driven by
widespread cloudiness and perhaps areas of ongoing precipitation
Monday morning, possibly resulting in stunted daytime
heating/destabilization. Additionally, given the less progressive
nature of the mid/upper trough, large-scale ascent may remain
somewhat nebulous/unfocused through peak heating. Nevertheless,
where pockets of stronger heating and destabilization occur across
the warm sector, strong to severe storms will be possible given
moderate vertical shear overspreading the moist boundary layer in
the presence of a surface boundary. Isolated damaging gusts and
sporadic hail will be the main hazards with this activity Monday
afternoon into the evening.

..Leitman.. 09/22/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 221729
SWODY2
SPC AC 221727

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
OZARKS INTO PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Ozarks
into parts of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys on Monday.

...Synopsis...
A broad, positively-tilted trough will slowly progress eastward
through the central Plains and into the Ozarks/lower Ohio Valley
vicinity by Tuesday morning. A belt of moderate mid-level flow will
stretch from near the Red River into Tennessee, Kentucky, and
southern Illinois/Indiana. Given the nature of the trough, a rather
weak surface pattern is expected. However, a cold front is expected
to reside from the southern Great Lakes region into the Ozarks with
a weak surface low in the Mid-South making some northward progress
during the period. To the south of the front, a moist airmass should
remain in place with mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints.

...Ozarks Vicinity...
Cloud cover and precipitation will likely be present Monday morning.
The degree of destabilization during the afternoon will be
uncertain. Model guidance has some confidence in heating into parts
of central Arkansas, but the northern extent of stronger heating is
the primary question. With the cold front taking on a more
north-south orientation in this region, 35-45 kts of effective shear
across the boundary could promote a more discrete storm mode. Should
sufficient destabilization occur, isolated large hail and damaging
winds would be possible. Poor mid-level lapse rates should tend to
limit overall intensity of most storms.

...Portions of Tennessee/lower Ohio Valleys...
As with areas farther west, there will be some potential for
precipitation and cloud cover Monday morning, especially with
northern extent. South of the surface boundary, at least broken
cloud cover should allow for sufficient heating to promote around
1500 J/kg MLCAPE by the afternoon. 40-50 kts of shear parallel to
the boundary will allow some potential for storm organization.
Damaging winds would likely be the primary threat, though isolated
large hail is possible in the strongest, discrete storms.

As the trough moves east and the surface boundary slowly lifts
northward into Tuesday morning, some stronger elevated activity
could move into southern Illinois/Indiana during the overnight.
There is spread in how far north the boundary moves and the degree
of elevated buoyancy, but some potential for small to marginally
severe hail and an isolated damaging wind gust will exist.

..Wendt.. 09/22/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 230529
SWODY2
SPC AC 230528

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TOWARD THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across
portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians.

...OH/TN Valleys toward the Central/Southern Appalachians...

A complicated/messy scenario is unfolding for severe potential on
Tuesday. Most 00z CAMs and deterministic guidance suggests
potentially widespread convection may be ongoing Tuesday morning
across the Ohio Valley vicinity. This will limit heating and
destabilization across a broad warm sector ahead of an
eastward-advancing surface cold front. Nevertheless, a deepening
mid/upper trough will slowly shift east from eastern portions of the central/southern Plains toward the MS River. Strengthening
deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the region, providing
support for organized convection, with a mix clusters and line
segments possible.

Given uncertainty due to morning convection and subsequent airmass destabilization, as well has some disagreement in timing of the
mid/upper trough, have introduced a rather broad Marginal risk
(level 1 of 5). Some refinement of this area, and/or potential
upgrades may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence
sufficiently increases in a more favorable/focused corridor of
severe potential. Where stronger heating/destabilization can occur,
damaging gusts will be possible.

..Leitman.. 09/23/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 231730
SWODY2
SPC AC 231729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday
across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the
central/southern Appalachians.

...Synopsis...
A lead shortwave trough will be moving through parts of the Ohio
Valley Tuesday morning with a stronger mid-level jet digging
southward through the central Plains. Trends in model guidance have
suggested a stronger large-scale trough across the Midwest over the
last few cycles. However, the surface pattern still remains a point
of uncertainty. At least a weak surface low is expected to be
positioned near the Illinois/Indiana border Tuesday morning. The
exact position and evolution are not clear, but a general movement
to the north-northeast is expected. This will aid in slowly pushing
an effective warm front north in Indiana/Ohio/western Pennsylvania.
Farther to the west, a secondary, weak surface low is forecast to
develop in the Texas Panhandle/western Oklahoma. A weak cold front
will push southward as mid-level jet/trough moves south and
eastward, respectively.

...Central/Eastern Kentucky...
Confidence in scattered storm coverage has increased. While some
activity may be ongoing early Tuesday, model guidance generally
suggested that at least broken heating is possible. Additional
storms are expected along/ahead of the cold front during the
afternoon. While mid-level lapse rates will not be overly steep,
40-50 kts of effective shear should lead to organized storms capable
of wind damage and isolated large hail. 15% wind probabilities have
been limited to where the highest confidence in scattered storm
coverage is. Some adjustments are still possible as details
regarding low-level destabilization becomes more apparent.

...Mid-South into southern Appalachians...
While low/mid-level forcing will be weaker in these areas, shear
will still be strong enough to support organized convection along
the cold front and within the higher terrain. Mid-level lapse rates
will be modest, but a moist airmass (dewpoints in the upper 60s to
perhaps low 70s F) will support 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE where heating
occurs. Damaging winds are likely the primary threat, but effective
shear of 40-45 kts will also support some risk of large hail with
the strongest storms.

...Lower Great Lakes Vicinity...
Uncertainty in the track of the surface low and effective warm front
complicate the forecast for this region. Some guidance is more
aggressive in destabilizing the boundary layer in the wake of early
day activity. Wind profiles will support supercells capable of
damaging winds and large hail. Forecast soundings show enlarged
low-level hodographs near the effective warm front. While the
tornado threat will be conditional on the degree of destabilization
and overall storm evolution, a supercell interacting with the
boundary could produce a brief tornado.

...Western Oklahoma Vicinity...
Some model guidance develops convection along the cold front and
moves it southward through western Oklahoma. Moisture will likely be
limited which will likely limit storm intensity if any form at all.
Gusty winds and small hail could occur with strong northwesterly
flow and cold temperatures aloft. Uncertainty is too high to
introduce probabilities at this time.

..Wendt.. 09/23/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 240514
SWODY2
SPC AC 240513

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1213 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential is low on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...

An upper low within the base of the larger-scale upper trough
extending from the Great Lakes to the Lower MS Valley will become
cut-off from northern stream flow on Wednesday. As this occurs, the
northern shortwave trough will progress east across the Great Lakes
and southern Ontario. The developing upper cyclone over the
Mid-South/Lower MS Valley will not move much through the period.
However, moderately enhanced southerly deep-layer flow on the
eastern flank of the cut-off low will persist over the Southeast.
Meanwhile, latest forecast guidance and NHC forecasts show a
strengthening tropical cyclone emerging across the eastern Gulf of
Mexico. This system is forecast to remain well offshore from the
southwest FL coast through 12z Thursday.

...Southeast...

A stalled surface boundary/inverted trough will extend from near
coastal MS/AL northeast across the central Appalachians. Near and
east of this boundary, south/southeasterly low-level flow will
maintain a very moist airmass with dewpoints from the mid 60s to low
70s F. Potentially widespread convection may be ongoing Wednesday
morning across portions of this area, limiting destabilization.
Despite vertical shear that may otherwise support organized
convection, weak instability and poor lapse rates will limit severe
potential, though the strongest cells may produce locally gusty
winds.

Further south across the FL Peninsula, southeasterly low to midlevel
flow will increase, especially after 00z, as the developing tropical
cyclone emerges into the eastern Gulf. Forecast soundings show
enlarged, favorably curved low-level hodographs developing late in
the period. However, instability across the Peninsula is expected to
remain weak through early Thursday morning. At this time, tropical
cyclone related tornado potential appears limited through 12z
Thursday.

...Upper OH Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity...

A cold front will move east/southeast across the Lower Great Lakes
during the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Ahead of this
feature, a corridor of 60s F dewpoints will be in place. However,
surface heating is expected to be muted by cloud cover and showers.
As a result, instability will be weak and lapse rates will remain
poor, precluding severe thunderstorm potential.

..Leitman.. 09/24/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 241731
SWODY2
SPC AC 241730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and/or brief
tornadoes are possible from southeast Alabama into the western
Florida Panhandle, and across much of the Florida Peninsula.

...Synopsis...
An amplified upper pattern, featuring a ridge extended from northern
Mexico through the northern High Plains and a trough extended from
Ontario into the Lower MS Valley, will cover the CONUS early
Wednesday. Bifurcation of the upper trough is anticipated throughout
the period, with a northern shortwave trough remaining progressive
as it moves across eastern Ontario into southern Quebec, and a
southern upper low stalling over the Mid-South vicinity. The
stalling of the southern upper low will occur as subtropical ridging
builds across the western Atlantic and a tropical cyclone enters the
eastern Gulf of Mexico. Latest forecast guidance from NHC for this
tropical cyclone, which was recently upgraded to Tropical Storm
Helene, suggests the storm will reach hurricane strength during the
day Wednesday, with additional strengthening to major hurricane
strength by early Thursday morning.

Farther west, a progressive shortwave trough is forecast to move
quickly across southern British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest,
ending the period over the northern Rockies.

At the surface, a weak front will likely extend from a low over the
Lake Huron vicinity southward through middle TN before arcing more southwestward to another low in southeast TX. Western portion of
this front over TX and LA is forecast to remain progressive, pushing southeastward to the western Gulf Coast by Wednesday evening.
Eastern portion of the front will stall, maintaining a more
north-south orientation from northern AL through southern Lower MI.

...Upper OH Valley through the southern Appalachians into AL, GA,
and FL Panhandle Wednesday morning into the evening...
A belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to extend
through the eastern periphery of the upper low developing over the
Mid-South from the FL Panhandle northward into the Upper OH Valley.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are anticipated within this
warm conveyor, reaching as far north as western A. However, poor
lapse rates and limited destabilization should mitigate the overall
severe potential across the majority of this region.

An area of locally higher severe potential is anticipated within a
spatially constrained corridor from southeast AL into far southwest
GA and the western FL Panhandle, just west of the primary axis of
precipitation anticipated within the warm conveyor. Here, a mix of
low 70s dewpoints, modest heating, and moderate mid-level flow could
result in a few thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and/or a
brief tornado or two.

...Much of the FL Peninsula...
Rainbands associated with tropical cyclone Helene are forecast to
move across the FL Peninsula throughout the period. At the same
time, low to mid-level flow attendant to the cyclone will increase
as the cyclone and its expansive wind field spread northward. As a
result, vertical shear will be strong enough to support organized
storm structure. Primary mitigating factor is warm, poor lapse rate
profiles that limit buoyancy. Brief tornadoes will be possible
within any updrafts that are able to mature/persist.

..Mosier.. 09/24/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 250554
SWODY2
SPC AC 250552

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO THE SOUTHERN SC COASTAL VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to move inland across northern
Florida and Georgia on Thursday. A risk for tropical-cyclone
tornadoes will accompany this system, particularly from the central
Florida Peninsula into southeast Georgia and parts of the Midlands
and Low Country of South Carolina.

...FL/GA/SC/southeast NC...

Latest forecast track guidance from the National Hurricane Center
has Helene making landfall in the vicinity of the Florida Big Bend
Thursday evening. As the storm tracks northward across the eastern
Gulf of Mexico, low and mid level flow fields will increase from
central FL into southeast GA and coastal SC during the day. Forecast
soundings from most forecast guidance show very large, favorably
curved low-level hodographs for rotating supercells within
convective bands well east/northeast of the center of Helene.
Surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the mid 70s F,
resulting in greater than 125 J/kg 0-3 km MLCAPE from north FL into
southeast GA and southern coastal SC. Furthermore, looking at
historical tropical cyclone tornado data, adjusting for the expected track/storm motion of Helene and even distance from the center,
previous cyclone analogs have produced several tornadoes within the
favored northeast quadrant. Given a consistent, favorable signal
across ensemble, deterministic, CAMs and calibrated guidance, an
Enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) has been included, driven by a 10
percent tornado probability, across southeast GA into southern
coastal SC.

..Leitman.. 09/25/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 251723
SWODY2
SPC AC 251723

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to move inland across northern
Florida and Georgia on Thursday. A risk for tropical-cyclone
tornadoes will accompany this system, particularly from the central
Florida Peninsula into southeast Georgia and parts of the Midlands
and Low Country of South Carolina.

...FL/GA/SC/southeast NC...
Latest forecast track guidance from the National Hurricane Center
has Hurricane Helene over the eastern Gulf of Mexico (about 225
miles west-southwest of SRQ) early Thursday morning. This system is
forecast to continue northward and make landfall in the FL Big Bend
vicinity just east of AAF Thursday evening. As the storm moves
northward throughout the day, the strong wind field accompanying it
will expand northward as well, beginning over the FL Peninsula
Thursday morning before reaching into GA during the afternoon and
into SC by Thursday evening. These increased winds will result in
long, looping hodographs with more than enough low-level shear to
support tornadogenesis. As such, buoyancy-related updraft
strength/persistence will be the primary factor determining
thunderstorm severity and overall tornado potential and frequency.

Initial rainbands will likely be impacting the west coast of the FL
Peninsula at the beginning of the period before gradually spreading northward/northeastward throughout the day as the system moves
northward. Tornadoes are most likely within the low-topped
convection within these rainbands, so a low-probability tornado risk
will begin early across the FL Peninsula before spreading
northeastward over time. A relatively greater tornado risk is
anticipated later, with best overlap between these rainbands and the
strong low/mid-level flow beginning over FL during the late
afternoon and moving into GA and SC during the evening and
overnight. Highest tornado potential is still anticipated across
coastal GA and SC Low Country after 00Z Friday.

...Southern New England/Hudson Valley...
A compact upper low is forecast to progress eastward across southern
Quebec and adjacent portions of New England on Thursday. Strong
large-scale forcing for ascent will aid in the development of a
convective line during the afternoon from southern New England into
the Hudson Valley. Buoyancy will be modest, but enhanced mid-level
flow through the base of the upper low will support moderate to
strong deep-layer vertical shear. Consequently, a few stronger
storms capable of damaging gusts are possible. Overall coverage of
damaging gusts is currently expected to remain below 5%.

..Mosier.. 09/25/2024





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ACUS02 KWNS 260534
SWODY2
SPC AC 260532

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
A risk for a few tornadoes and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts
exists from the central Appalachians into the Carolinas and southern
Virginia on Friday.

...Central Appalachians and Southern Mid-Atlantic...

The expansive, enhanced low/midlevel flow field on the eastern
periphery of the remnants of Hurricane Helene will impact the
central Appalachians east to portions of coastal SC/NC/southern VA
through Friday afternoon/evening. Convective bands will likely be
ongoing Friday morning across the Pee Dee region of SC, and lift
northward through the afternoon. As a dry slot punches quickly
north/northeast behind this band of convection, the severe risk will
quickly come to an end from south to north by late afternoon or
early evening. Supercell wind profiles, with enlarged, looping
low-level hodographs are evident in forecast soundings around the
region. Strong 0-1 km SRH and surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F
(resulting in favorable low-level instability) will support a
tornado risk with cells within the northward moving convective
bands. Furthermore, given the already strong low-level flow field,
strong thunderstorm wind gusts also will be possible.

...TN/OH Valley vicinity...

Strong winds will likely occur from the central Appalachians
westward across the OH/TN Valley vicinity as Helene tracks
north/northwest and becomes absorbed by the mid/upper cyclone over
the Mid-South region. However, these gusty winds will be tied to the transitioning tropical system, and less influenced by convective
processes, precluding severe probabilities.

..Leitman.. 09/26/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 261650
SWODY2
SPC AC 261648

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF
THE NC/SC COASTAL PLAIN...

...SUMMARY...
Tornadoes will be most likely during the morning and remain possible
into the afternoon on Friday, across parts of the Carolinas and
southern Virginia, in association with Tropical Cyclone Helene.

...Carolinas/VA...
TC Helene is forecast by NHC to become a tropical storm by 12Z
Friday as it quickly progresses inland over the Southeast. This
cyclone will further weaken as it rotates around and becomes further
absorbed with an existing closed mid-level low over the Deep South.
The associated low-level wind field, coincident with a rich tropical
moisture plume on the eastern semicircle, will be strongest at the
start of the period and weaken appreciably during the afternoon.
Hodograph enlargement will be pronounced in the morning, but should
still remain adequate for a tornado threat into the afternoon.

A lower-topped convective band will be ongoing at 12Z, most likely
centered over the Pee Dee of SC to the Piedmont of the NC/SC border
area. This should advance quickly north through the rest of the
morning into the afternoon across the NC Piedmont/Coastal Plain and
southern VA. The greatest relative tornado threat should be along
the NC/SC border area near the coast through late morning. As a dry
slot punches rapidly north-northeast behind this band of convection,
the severe risk will come to an abrupt end from south to north.
Shrinking hodographs within the rich tropical moisture plume should
result in a more spatially confined/waning threat later in the day.

..Grams.. 09/26/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 270545
SWODY2
SPC AC 270543

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.

...Synopsis...
The upper-level low across the Ohio Valley will be in the process of
weakening on Saturday. There will be a lingering mid-level jet
across parts of Southeast into the southern Appalachians. However,
dry air wrapping into the Southeast, along with remaining cloud
cover and precipitation, should keep convection shallow and
surface-based buoyancy to a minimum.

Rich moisture will remain across much of the Florida Peninsula.
Sufficient surface heating is expected to promote the development of
isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon. Poor lapse rates aloft
and the displacement of the stronger mid-level winds well to the
north will keep severe potential low with this activity.

A pocket of mid-level moisture in the Four Corners vicinity may
promote some convection in the higher terrain of south-central
Colorado into north-central New Mexico. Forecast soundings suggest
most convection will not be deep enough for charge separation except
perhaps on an isolated basis. Thunderstorm potential should remain
below 10%.

..Wendt.. 09/27/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 271702
SWODY2
SPC AC 271700

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Upper low resulting from interaction between Tropical Cyclone Helene
and a mid-latitude cyclone will begin the period over the Lower OH
Valley. Some very modest eastward progression of this system is
forecast throughout the day. A surface low will be stacked beneath
the upper low, with modest low-level moisture arcing cyclonically
around this low from GA and Carolinas into the OH Valley. Despite
the presence of this low-level moisture, relatively warm profiles
will promote stable conditions, and deep convection is not
anticipated.

Farther south across the FL Peninsula, ample low-level moisture
(i.e. dewpoints in the mid 70s) will help support modest buoyancy as temperatures warm into the upper 80s/low 90s amid strong daytime
heating. Weak low-level convergence will foster afternoon
thunderstorm development within this destabilized airmass. Weak
shear should keep the severe-thunderstorm potential low.

Expansive upper ridging that covers much of the Southwest and
extends into the northern Plains is forecast to remain largely in
place on Saturday. Modest moisture, characterized by PW values near
0.75", is expected beneath this ridging from the Four Corners
vicinity into the central/southern Rockies. Some deeper convection
is possible during peak heating across the southern Rockies, but
forecast soundings suggest most convection will not be deep enough
for charge separation except perhaps on an isolated basis.
Thunderstorm potential should remain below 10%.

..Mosier.. 09/27/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 280553
SWODY2
SPC AC 280551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level low in the Tennessee/mid Ohio Valleys will make
little progress eastward on Sunday. This low will be weakening and
in the process of becoming and open wave during the period. Ridging
aloft will be the main feature in the Southwest into the Midwest,
while a strong upper-level trough will be present in the
Northwest/northern Rockies. At the surface, the pattern will become
more disorganized beneath the upper low as that features weakens. A
front will remain along and just offshore of the eastern coastline.

Thunderstorms are possible from the Florida Peninsula into the
Carolinas and southern parts of Virginia. Some modest mid-level flow enhancement will remain in parts of the Southeast and Carolinas. A
stronger storm or two could potentially develop in central/eastern
North Carolina as heating appears it could support around 1000 J/kg
MLCAPE. However, weak lapse rates/warm temperatures aloft will keep
buoyancy generally limited and convection rather shallow. The
expected environment continues to suggest severe thunderstorm
potential is low. A few isolated lightning flashes may also occur in
central Utah as a weak upper-level shortwave moves into the Great
Basin. Coverage is expected to remain below 10%.

..Wendt.. 09/28/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 281645
SWODY2
SPC AC 281643

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Sunday.

...Eastern Great Basin...
Very isolated thunderstorm development is possible on Sunday
afternoon amid scattered high-based, low-topped convection. A
low-amplitude mid-level low currently off the southern CA coast
should progress into southern CA before stalling Sunday night. Weak
forcing for ascent combined with recycled 700-mb moisture within the
Four Corners States may be adequate for a 10 percent chance of
thunderstorms. The more moist spectrum of guidance suggests buoyancy
will remain scant. Even with the low thunder probability, very large
surface temperature-dew point spreads will support dry microburst
potential and locally strong gusts.

...Upper OH Valley to the Lower Mid-Atlantic...
Ahead of the positive-tilt mid/upper trough drifting east across
KY/TN, isolated lower-topped thunderstorms will be possible, mainly
during Sunday afternoon. Mid-level temperatures will be relatively
warm east-southeast of the trough and cooler to the northeast.
Boundary-layer warming will be more limited with northern extent
amid abundant cloud coverage and early-day showers. As such,
instability will be weak regionwide. A confined belt of stronger
mid-level southwesterlies should be over GA into the Carolinas.
Within this sub-region, the warm temperatures and poor lapse rates
aloft will probably hold thunder probs around 10 percent or less,
yielding negligible severe concern.

..Grams.. 09/28/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 290455
SWODY2
SPC AC 290453

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1153 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

...Synopsis...
A weakening, positively-tilted upper trough will continue eastward
in the central/southern Appalachians on Monday. On the southern
flank of this trough, mid-level winds will remain modestly enhanced
from Georgia into parts of the eastern Carolinas. Thermodynamic
profiles across the region suggest convection should remain rather
shallow due to warmer temperatures at mid/upper levels. This will
particularly be the case with northern/western extent closer to the
remnant upper level circulation. A few deeper updrafts are possible
near the eastern coast of North Carolina. Despite adequate shear,
weak lapse rates aloft and minimal forcing for ascent will limit
potential for severe storms.

Across the Florida Peninsula, a moist airmass will remain in place.
Daytime heating and ascent along the sea breeze boundary will
promote isolated to scattered storm development during the
afternoon. Weak shear will limit severe potential, however.

Though limited, mid-level moisture within the upper-level ridge will
allow isolated thunderstorms to develop within the higher terrain in
the Four Corners vicinity. Slightly greater coverage may be realized
in central Colorado where PWAT values are forecast to be higher.

..Wendt.. 09/29/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 291657
SWODY2
SPC AC 291656

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

...Southern VA and the Carolinas...
A weakening, positive-tilt mid/upper trough will slowly move
eastward over the central/southern Appalachians on Monday.
Thermodynamic profiles across the region suggest convection should
remain shallow due to relatively warm temperatures at mid/upper
levels, especially along/south of the quasi-stationary front arcing
from central/southern NC to southern WV. Overall thunderstorm
coverage should be quite isolated.

On the southeast flank of the trough, mid-level southwesterlies will
remain enhanced from GA to southern NC. Adequate deep-layer shear
with moderate straight-line hodograph elongation should be present
near the southeast NC vicinity of the front. But poor mid-level
lapse rates (around 4-5 C/km) will temper hail growth.

...FL Peninsula...
Rich low-level moisture combined with ascent along the sea breeze
should promote isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms during the
afternoon. Weak shear will limit organized severe potential.

...Southwest...
Limited mid-level moisture within the upper-level ridge may be
adequate for very isolated thunderstorms from the southern Rockies
to the Mogollon Rim. Consensus of model soundings suggest buoyancy
should be scant at most, with high-based, low-topped convection.
Gusty, erratic surface winds are possible within dry microbursts.

..Grams.. 09/29/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 301647
SWODY2
SPC AC 301645

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.

...Discussion...
Scattered thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday afternoon across the
central FL Peninsula where a moderately buoyant air mass persists. A low-amplitude upper impulse will pass to its north across the
Southeast, but deep-layer shear is expected to remain weak. In
combination with marginal mid-level lapse rates, the severe-storm
threat appears negligible.

Across eastern NC to far southeast VA, a weakening shortwave trough
will progress across the region and offshore Tuesday evening/night.
Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible through the afternoon.

Over the central to lower Great Lakes, a vigorous shortwave trough
will move across ON and the northern Great Lakes. A surface cold
front ahead of this trough will similarly move eastward, reaching
Lower MI to IN by afternoon. With surface dewpoints in the low 60s,
meager surface-based buoyancy should develop ahead of the front. But
warm 700-mb temperatures and weak mid-level lapse rates, especially
with southern extent along the front, suggest instability will
remain limited and thunderstorm coverage will be sparse. With the
bulk of stronger mid/upper flow lagging behind the front, severe
storms are not anticipated.

Limited mid-level moisture from the Mogollon Rim into southern AZ
may promote very isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon.

..Grams.. 09/30/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 010500
SWODY2
SPC AC 010458

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1158 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
Zonal flow aloft will develop across the northern CONUS while
upper-level ridging will be present in the south on Wednesday.
Thunderstorms are most likely to occur in the Florida Peninsula
where daytime heating of a moist airmass and lift from sea breeze
boundaries should promote widely scattered to scattered coverage.
Weak convection could develop along the Blue Ridge, but increasing
ridging aloft through the day should keep thunderstorm potential
well below 10%. Additional very isolated activity could develop
along parts of the Mogollon Rim, but coverage should remain below
10% here as well.

..Wendt.. 10/01/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 011645
SWODY2
SPC AC 011644

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1144 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday.

...Discussion...
Quasi-zonal flow aloft will prevail across most of the northern half
of the U.S. Wednesday, while weak ridging affects the southern half
of the country.

A remnant cold front extending from the western Atlantic into the
Gulf of Mexico will keep the moist/tropical airmass suppressed, with
a dry airmass expected across the U.S. away from the Atlantic and
Gulf Coast states.

Thunderstorm potential will remain similarly suppressed, mainly near
and south of the cold front across the Florida Peninsula. Very weak
lower to middle tropospheric flow across this area precludes any
appreciable severe risk.

Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not anticipated.

..Goss.. 10/01/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 020459
SWODY2
SPC AC 020457

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
A quasi-zonal upper-level jet will be present across the northern
CONUS on Thursday. Southern portions of the CONUS will experience
modest upper-level ridging. At the surface, a remnant cold front
will remain along the Gulf Coast with a secondary, stronger cold
front moving into the central Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest.

Thunderstorms are most likely to the south of the Gulf Coast
boundary. Scattered storms can be expected during the afternoon in
the Florida Peninsula. Towards Friday morning, a weak disturbance
should promote thunderstorms from southeast Louisiana into the
Florida Panhandle. An isolated storm or two is possible in northern
Missouri overnight Thursday as elevated instability develops in the
area. Very weak forcing will keep coverage below 10% should
initiation occur. Severe weather is not expected with any activity.

..Wendt.. 10/02/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 021731
SWODY2
SPC AC 021730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

...Discussion...
Weak flow aloft will prevail across the southern half of the U.S.
Thursday, where general ridging aloft will prevail. Over the
northern half of the country, faster flow will reside, with a trough
forecast to progress across the north-central states and eventually
reach the Upper Great Lakes.

At the surface, a cold front will advance eastward across the Great
Lakes, and more slowly southward across the Plains. Meager
low-level moisture is expected ahead of this front, however, with
the richer/tropical moisture remaining confined to the Southeast and
Gulf Coast states. Thus, lack of appreciable instability should
preclude thunderstorm activity with this front.

As a weak disturbance aloft drifts northward out of the central Gulf
of Mexico and into the central Gulf Coast states, showers and
scattered thunderstorms are expected to evolve, from the mouth of
the Mississippi River to Florida. However, weak flow aloft will
preclude any appreciable risk for severe weather through the period.

..Goss.. 10/02/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 030516
SWODY2
SPC AC 030515

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.

...Synopsis...
Stronger flow aloft will continue to be confined to the northern
tier of the CONUS on Friday. Two shortwave troughs will progress
through this corridor. One will move from the upper Great Lakes into
the Northeast while another will shift through the Northwest into
the northern Rockies. Ridging aloft will be maintained in the
southern two-thirds of the CONUS. A remnant surface boundary will be
situated along the Gulf Coast. Another cold front will be draped
from the Great Lakes into the central Plains.

A few thunderstorms may be ongoing early Friday morning in the
Mid-Mississippi Valley, as modest cooling aloft occurs on the
southern flank of the passing shortwave and weak warm advection
occurs with the low-level jet. Additional thunderstorms are possible
with a weak northward-moving disturbance in the central/southern
Appalachians as well as along the weak Gulf Coast boundary.
Diurnally driven storms are likely in the Florida Peninsula. Severe thunderstorms are not expected with any of this activity.

..Wendt.. 10/03/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 031727
SWODY2
SPC AC 031725

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.

...Discussion...
A fast/progressive upper flow field will persist across the northern
third of the U.S. Friday, while ridging generally prevails over the
southern two-thirds of the country. Once exception will be a weak
upper disturbance shifting out of the northern Gulf of Mexico, which
will partially phase with a northern-stream trough crossing the
Great Lakes region. By the end of the period, this trough will
reach New England and the Atlantic Coast.

At the surface, a cold front will cross the northern Intermountain
region and eventually emerge into the northern Plains, ahead of a
trough embedded in the fast northern-stream flow field aloft.
Otherwise, a rather nondescript surface pattern will prevail
elsewhere.

At low levels, tropical moisture will be confined to the Gulf and
Southeast Coasts. Lesser moisture -- dewpoints in the upper 50s to
low 60s -- will extend northward across the Tennessee, Ohio,
Mid-Mississippi, and Mid Missouri Valleys, but weak lapse rates
aloft across these areas will yield only modest destabilization.

Greatest thunderstorm potential will extend from the Texas Coastal
Plain eastward across the Southeast -- aided by ascent associated
with the aforementioned southeastern U.S. upper disturbance phasing
with a northern-stream trough, and other vorticity maxima extending
westward across the Gulf and into northern Mexico. Elevated showers
and a few thunderstorms will also be possible early in the period
over the northeastern Missouri/southeastern Iowa/northern Illinois
area. In all of these locales, severe weather is not expected.

..Goss.. 10/03/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 040523
SWODY2
SPC AC 040521

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Potential for severe storms appears low on Saturday.

...Upper Midwest into the Upper Great Lakes...
Northern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly
eastward from the Canadian Prairies and adjacent northern High
Plains through western Ontario and the Upper Midwest on Saturday.
This shortwave is expected to mature as it progresses eastward, with
the resulting closed mid-level cyclone over northwestern Ontario by
early Sunday morning. An associated surface low will accompany this
system, moving eastward across the central portion of Canadian
Prairie Provinces and ending the period stacked beneath the
mid-level low over northwestern Ontario. Cold front attendant to
this surface low will push eastward across the northern and central
Plains through the Upper Midwest. By 12Z Sunday, this front will
likely extend from central Lower MI southwestward through central MO
before then turning more westward and extending along the OK/KS
border vicinity.

Warm-air advection will gradually increase within the warm sector
ahead of the front throughout the period. Low to mid-level
moistening from this warm-air advection coupled with cooling
mid-level temperatures will result in elevated buoyancy across the
Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes from Saturday evening into
Sunday morning. Isolated thunderstorms are possible within this
region as a result. Enhanced mid-level flow associated with the
shortwave trough will spread into the region during the evening as
well, supporting moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear.
However, the cloud-bearing layer shear values will be more modest
(i.e. around half of the bulk shear values), and the resulting
combination of modest buoyancy and shear will likely result in
predominantly sub-severe thunderstorms.

...Gulf Coast...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the Gulf Coast and FL
Peninsula throughout the period as low-level easterlies persist
within a very moist airmass. Limited buoyancy and weak shear should
keep the severe-thunderstorm potential low.

..Mosier.. 10/04/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 041709
SWODY2
SPC AC 041707

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1207 PM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN WI INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce hail and gusty
winds across parts of northern Wisconsin into the Upper Peninsula of
Michigan Saturday evening.

...Great Lakes...

A potent upper shortwave trough over the northern High Plains will
shift east on Saturday, becoming positioned over the Great Lakes by
Sunday morning. A strong 70+ kt southwesterly 500 mb jet will
overspread the Upper Midwest as the trough shifts east. Meanwhile,
cooling aloft will lead to a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates
across WI/MI by late afternoon/evening. Low-level inhibition will
limit surface-based instability, but cool temperatures aloft and
increasing midlevel moisture will support MUCAPE values around
1500-2000 J/kg.

A cold front extending south from a deepening low over Manitoba and
western Ontario will shift east across the Upper Midwest during the
day and into the evening, becoming oriented from central Lower MI to
northern OK by 12z Sunday. A warm advection regime ahead of the
upper trough, coupled with increasing instability and moderate
vertical shear will support thunderstorm development near the front
by late afternoon/early evening. A few organized cells may produce
strong gusts and marginal hail across parts of northern WI into the
U.P. of MI during the evening, and a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5)
has been included with the Day 2 update.

...Gulf Coast...

East to northeast low-level flow will persist over the Gulf, where a
very moist airmass (70s F dewpoints) will be in place along the
coastal regions from TX eastward across Florida. Sufficient
instability will support thunderstorm potential, especially along
any sea breeze boundaries where low-level convergence will be
enhanced. Overall instability will remain modest, with poor lapse
rates forecast and limited vertical shear, precluding severe
thunderstorm concerns.

..Leitman.. 10/04/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 050539
SWODY2
SPC AC 050538

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
OHIO INTO MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA...WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN
NEW YORK...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday
afternoon and evening across parts of the western New York and
Pennsylvania into West Virginia.

...Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity...
A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to begin the period over central
Ontario, with enhanced mid-level flow extending throughout the base
of this system from the Upper Midwest into the Upper Great Lakes and
OH Valley. A pair of shortwave troughs are expected to progress
quickly eastward/northeastward within this belt of stronger flow,
helping to pull the cyclone eastward while also inducing a negative
tilt to the system. By early Sunday, upper troughing will likely
extend from the Ontario/Quebec border southeastward into the
northern Mid-Atlantic.

Primary surface low associated with this system will remain occluded
over Ontario throughout the period. However, a secondary
triple-point low will likely be over central Ontario early Sunday,
with its associated cold front extending southwestward through the
Mid MS Valley. This low is forecast to push eastward across eastern
Ontario during the day, with the cold front progressing
eastward/southeastward as well. A narrow corridor of low 60s
dewpoints is anticipated just ahead of the cold front, which is
expected to combine with cooling mid-level temperatures and foster
modest buoyancy. Initial thunderstorm development along the front is anticipated across eastern OH, where a favorable combination of
daytime heating and low-level moisture will destabilize the
pre-frontal airmass.

Moderate to strong mid-level flow will extend across the region as
well, which should allow updrafts to stay ahead of the quick-moving
cold front for at least a few hours. Cold mid-level temperatures and
moderate deep-layer vertical shear will support a hail risk with the
strongest updrafts, particularly with initial development. Bowing
line segments will contribute to a threat for damaging gusts as
well. Surface winds will likely veer ahead of the front, limiting
the low-level curvature. Even so, forecast soundings show
southwesterlies strengthening from 15 kt at the surface to 40 kt at
700 mb, which does result in enough storm-relative helicity for some
tornado potential if a discrete mode can be maintained.

...Gulf Coast into the Coastal GA and FL Peninsula...
Easterly/northeasterly low-level flow will persist for another day
across the northern Gulf of Mexico, as a broad area of low pressure
remains in place. Showers and thunderstorms are possible within the
moist airmass, but weak shear should keep storm severity low.

..Mosier.. 10/05/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 051733
SWODY2
SPC AC 051731

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
OHIO...WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK...AND THE NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and
evening across parts of eastern Ohio, western New York and
Pennsylvania, and West Virginia.

...Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity...

An upper trough over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes will develop east
on Sunday, becoming oriented from James Bay to the Mid-Atlantic
coast by Monday morning. As the trough shifts east, a belt of 45-60
kt westerly flow from 700-500 mb will overspread the Upper Ohio
Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity. At the surface, a cold front will
develop east across much of the Midwest, extending across central OH
to southern MO/IL by midday. A narrow corridor of low 60s F
dewpoints will develop ahead of the cold front across the Upper Ohio
Valley. Cooling aloft/steepening midlevel lapse rates will overlap
modest boundary-layer moisture to support a belt of 500-1500 J/kg
MLCAPE along/just ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front.

Forecast soundings show mostly unidirectional southwesterly
deep-layer flow as low-level winds are expected to veer ahead of the
cold front. However, near-surface winds around 15 kt will rapidly
increase with height to 40-50 kt around 700 mb. This will provide
sufficient low-level hodograph curvature and SRH such that a tornado
or two will be possible with any initial semi-discrete supercells
that can develop. However, the cold front is expected to progress
east fairly quickly and bowing line segments will become more likely
with time, supporting a risk for damaging gusts. Isolated large hail
also is possible, mainly early in storm evolution when storm mode
will be more favorable.

While overall spatial/temporal extent of severe potential will be
somewhat limited, the overall environment supports introducing a
Slight risk (level 2 of 5) with this outlook cycle.

..Leitman.. 10/05/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 060551
SWODY2
SPC AC 060549

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible across parts of
the Florida Peninsula on Monday, but no severe thunderstorms are
expected.

...DISCUSSION...
A shortwave trough is forecast to move across New England on Monday,
as a cyclonic flow regime remains over much of the northeastern
third of the nation. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to
advance southeastward into the Carolinas, Georgia and central Gulf
Coast. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place with
surface dewpoints across the Florida Peninsula in the 60s and low
70s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, weak
destabilization is expected. In response, isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will be possible in some areas across the Florida
Peninsula Monday afternoon. Instability is not expected to be strong
enough across the Florida Peninsula for a severe threat.

..Broyles.. 10/06/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 061704
SWODY2
SPC AC 061702

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1202 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible across parts of
southern New England and the Florida Peninsula on Monday, but severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough will deepen over the Great Lakes and spread east
over the Northeast on Monday. Meanwhile, a surface cold front will
shift east/southeast across much of the eastern and southeastern
U.S. through early Tuesday. Isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing
across parts of southern New England Monday morning ahead of the
cold front. This activity should move offshore by midday/early
afternoon and pose little risk for severe thunderstorms. The front
will become stalled over north FL, with a moist (60s to low 70s F
dewpoints) airmass across much of the Peninsula. Daytime heating
will allow for modest destabilization, supporting isolated to
scattered thunderstorm activity, particularly south of the Lake
Okeechobee vicinity. Weak instability and poor lapse rates will
preclude severe thunderstorm potential.

Meanwhile, Milton is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to
become a hurricane today (Sunday). The tropical system will
strengthen on Monday as it tracks across the south-central Gulf of
Mexico. However, Milton should remain far enough west of the Florida Keys/southwest FL that tropical cyclone related tornado activity is
not expected through early Tuesday morning.

..Leitman.. 10/06/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 070518
SWODY2
SPC AC 070516

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1216 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated tornado threat, associated with Milton, may develop
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning across the central and southern
Florida Peninsula.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Cyclonic flow aloft is forecast to persist from the Upper MS Valley
off the Northeast Coast on Tuesday, as the parent mid/upper cyclone
remains largely in place over western Quebec. Farther west,
expansive upper ridging, initially extending from the Southwest into
the Canadian Prairies, will gradually build northeastward. A weak
shortwave trough is forecast to move through the western periphery
of this ridging from central CA into the western Great Basin.

Surface pattern across much of the central and eastern CONUS will be
dominated by high pressure while seasonably warm conditions persist
across much of the western CONUS. A flash or two is possible across
the western Great Basin amid isolated high-based convection
attendant to the weak shortwave trough progressing through the
region.

Stable conditions are expected across the majority of the central
and eastern CONUS. The only exception is across FL, where a tropical
airmass will be in place ahead of Hurricane Milton. Milton is
forecast by the National Hurricane Center to be a Major Hurricane as
it moves across the central Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Strengthening
low to mid-level winds associated with this cyclone are expected to
spread across the FL Keys by late Tuesday night and across much of
the west coast of the FL Peninsula by early Wednesday morning. Outer
rainbands associated with Milton could be moving into these areas at
the same time, resulting in a low-probability potential for a few
tornadoes.

..Mosier.. 10/07/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 071702
SWODY2
SPC AC 071701

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1201 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND KEYS LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated tornado threat, associated with Hurricane Milton, may
develop Tuesday night into Wednesday morning across the central and
southern Florida Peninsula and the Keys.

...Florida...

No changes have been made to the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) across
parts of the FL Peninsula and Keys on Tuesday into early Wednesday.

Major Hurricane Milton is forecast by the National Hurricane Center
to track northeast on Tuesday, coming closer to the FL west coast by
the end of period/Wednesday morning. As the system develops
northeast across the eastern Gulf, strengthening low and midlevel
southerly flow will overspread the Keys into the southern/central
Peninsula, mainly after the 03z-06z time frame. As this occurs,
low-level SRH will increase, resulting in enlarged and favorably
curved hodographs and supporting rotation within cells in the far
outer bands of Milton. Surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F are
already in place, and will provide sufficient low-level instability
to support the potential for a couple of tornadoes late Tuesday
night into early Wednesday.

..Leitman.. 10/07/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 080519
SWODY2
SPC AC 080517

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1217 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FLORIDA KEYS...

...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes are possible across the Florida Peninsula and
Florida Keys as Hurricane Milton moves through on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
A strong shortwave trough and associated cold mid-level temperatures
are forecast to progress across Ontario, the Great Lakes, and the
Northeast, moving through the base of a large cyclone centered over
western Quebec throughout much of the period. Progression of this
shortwave will induce a eastward shift to the parent cyclone, taking
it over the St. Lawrence Valley by early Thursday. To the west of
this cyclone, expansive upper ridging will extend from the Southwest
into the Canadian Prairies early Wednesday. This ridging is expected
to shift eastward into more of western Ontario and the Upper
Midwest. A weak shortwave trough will likely move within this
broader ridging over the Mid MO Valley.

A flash or two is possible within some high-based convection
near the CO/NM border as well as the TX Panhandle/western OK, but
the overall coverage is currently expected to be less than 10% in
these areas. Primary forecast concern for Wednesday is the evolution
of Hurricane Milton and attendant tornado threat.

...FL Peninsula - Hurricane Milton...
Hurricane Milton, which is currently centered about 35 miles
north-northwest of Progresso, Mexico, is forecast to continue
northeastward through the eastern Gulf of Mexico, approaching the
west-central FL coast by Wednesday evening. This system is then
expected to continue east-northeastward across the central FL
Peninsula Wednesday night through Thursday morning. Low to mid-level
flow is expected to increase across the peninsula throughout the
day, substantially elongating hodographs. Mid 70s dewpoints will
also result in modest buoyancy. Some added buoyancy is also possible
via daytime heating and cloud breaks over the central and southern
peninsula given the slower storm speed and smaller structure. While
its difficult to know the timing and structure of any convective
bands, potential exists for some of these bands to be favorably
timed with peak heating. All of these factors suggest a tornado
threat will exists within any deeper, more sustained convection.

For additional information regarding Milton, including the latest
track and additional hazards, please refer to the latest
forecasts/updates from the National Hurricane Center.

..Mosier.. 10/08/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 081703
SWODY2
SPC AC 081701

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1201 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND KEYS...

...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes are possible across the Florida Peninsula and
Florida Keys as Hurricane Milton moves across the eastern Gulf of
Mexico and Florida on Wednesday into early Thursday.

...Florida...

The latest National Hurricane Center forecast calls for Hurricane
Milton to make landfall along the west-central Florida coast
Wednesday night or early Thursday. As the hurricane tracks northeast
across the eastern Gulf on Wednesday, low to midlevel southeasterly
flow will increase across the Keys and Peninsula. This will result
in increasing SRH and enlarged, looping low-level hodographs amid a
very moist airmass (mid 70s F dewpoints). The increasing flow field
across Florida will coincide with peak heating, resulting in
sufficient instability to maintain isolated stronger updrafts within
outer rainbands that may approach the area by afternoon. Favorable
conditions for a few tropical cyclone related tornadoes will persist
into the nighttime hours.

..Leitman.. 10/08/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 090544
SWODY2
SPC AC 090542

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes will remain possible across the central and southern
Florida Peninsula on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
A cyclone is forecast to be over ME/Canadian Maritime Provinces
early Thursday morning. Troughing associated with this cyclone will
extend southward along the East Coast, with Tropical Cyclone Milton
within the far southern periphery of this cyclonic flow. This
cyclone is expected to shift northeastward into the northern
Atlantic, with Milton ejecting quickly northeastward into the
western Atlantic as well. Stable conditions are expected across the
majority of the eastern CONUS in the wake of this cyclone,
precluding thunderstorm development. The only exception is across
the FL Peninsula in the vicinity of Milton.

Expansive upper ridging is expected to be in place from the
Southwest into the Upper MS Valley and far northwestern Ontario
Thursday morning. Northern periphery of this ridging is expected to
dampen throughout the period in response to a shortwave trough
moving through the Canadian Prairie Provinces. Additionally, a
low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded within the larger scale
ridging will likely drift southward from the central Plains into OK.
A few elevated thunderstorms are possible across
south-central/southeast KS and central OK Thursday morning amid the
modest low/mid-level moistening and cold mid-level temperatures
attendant to this shortwave.

...FL Peninsula - Hurricane Milton...
Current forecast from the National Hurricane Center has Milton
maintaining hurricane strength as it moves across the central FL
Peninsula Thursday morning. Given the expected early morning
position, wind fields will likely have veered across the central and
southern peninsula where the best low-level moisture, and associated
greatest buoyancy, will be in place. Even so ample speed shear will
support enough low-level curvature to support rotation and a
low-probability tornado risk within any deeper, more persistent
convection.

..Mosier.. 10/09/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 091706
SWODY2
SPC AC 091704

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1204 PM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE
FL EAST COAST...

...SUMMARY...
A brief tornado or two remains possible during the late morning
Thursday along the east-central to northeast Florida coast.

...FL Peninsula...
Latest NHC forecast has Milton approaching the Space Coast at 12Z
Thursday. Convective bands, outside of the inner core near the
center, will likely be offshore of the FL Peninsula by this time.
This appears to be a highly consistent signal across the 12Z HREF
and experimental CAM guidance. As such, tornado potential related to
Milton will be substantially diminished by mid-morning tomorrow, and
may already by negligible by the start of the D2 period. A
low-probability brief tornado risk might linger for a few hours into
late morning, where low-level SRH remains enlarged to the northeast
of the center, along a portion of the east-central to northeast
coast. Farther south, increasingly warm/dry mid-levels coupled with
veered low-level flow suggest the tornado threat will remain
negligible.

..Grams.. 10/09/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 100529
SWODY2
SPC AC 100528

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A belt of enhanced westerlies is forecast to extend from the
Canadian Prairie Province eastward across Ontario and southern
Quebec into New England throughout the day on Friday. A shortwave
trough embedded within these westerlies is forecast to progress
quickly eastward across Ontario and Quebec and adjacent portions of
the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes. An associated surface low
will move across Ontario just ahead of this shortwave, with an
attendant cold front pushing southeastward across the
northern/central Plains, the Upper/Mid MS Valley, and the Upper
Great Lakes. Scant low-level moisture is expected ahead of this low,
limiting the thunderstorm potential along most of the front. Some
modest buoyancy may develop across the Upper Great Lakes region
where low to mid-level moisture is expected to increase amid cooling
mid-level temperatures. This may result in deep enough updrafts for
a few lightning flashes between 18Z and 00Z.

Farther south, a low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to drift southeastward from OK into the Lower MS Valley. Cold mid-level
temperatures will accompany this shortwave, and lingering warm-air
advection showers and thunderstorms may result in a few lightning
flashes across eastern OK and northeast TX Friday morning.

Lastly, upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are expected to persist
across central and southern FL throughout the period. Some showers
are likely throughout the day amid confluent low-level northeasterly
flow. However, warm temperatures aloft will limit storm depth
throughout much of the period across the region. The environment
across south FL is expected to become more conducive to deep
convection late Friday night/early Saturday morning as mid-level
temperature cool slightly and low-level flow trends more
southeasterly. Consequently, a few flashes are possible across south
FL and/or the Keys after 00Z.

..Mosier.. 10/10/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 101727
SWODY2
SPC AC 101725

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.

...Great Lakes into New England...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough and attendant jet maximum are
forecast to move quickly east-southeastward across the Great Lakes
vicinity through the day, and then reach New England by later Friday
night. A cold front will move across parts of the Great Lakes, upper
Midwest, and eventually parts of the Northeast in conjunction with
this system.

Scant low-level moisture is expected ahead of the front, limiting
the thunderstorm potential across much of the warm sector. Very
modest buoyancy may develop across the Great Lakes region during the
afternoon, and into northern New England late Friday night, where
low to mid-level moisture is expected to increase amid cooling
mid-level temperatures. This will result in the potential for weak
convection with sporadic lightning flashes.

At this time, there is a somewhat stronger signal for thunderstorm
potential across parts of WI/MI, where a general thunderstorm area
has been maintained. A few flashes cannot be ruled out into New
England Friday night, though this potential is more uncertain.
Low/midlevel flow will be rather strong, so locally gusty winds will
be possible if any relatively deep and sustained convection can
develop across the region.

...Elsewhere...
Elevated convection that may develop late in the D1/Thursday period
across OK and north TX could persist into Friday morning, with some
thunder potential. Convection may become deep enough to support some thunderstorm potential across the FL Keys, and possibly into
southern portions of the FL Peninsula. A mid/upper-level shortwave
trough will move into parts of central/northern CA and the Pacific
Northwest, but thunderstorm potential across the region currently
appears limited due to very weak instability.

..Dean.. 10/10/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 110443
SWODY2
SPC AC 110441

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Saturday through Saturday night.

...Synopsis...
Strong cyclogenesis appears underway near the Aleutians and, by
early Saturday, models indicate that a broad, deep cyclone will
become centered across the northeastern Pacific/Gulf of Alaska, to
the east of the Aleutians. This is forecast to lead to amplifying
flow across the northern mid-latitudes of North America, including
building mid-level ridging to the east of the Canadian Rockies and
digging downstream mid-level troughing across the eastern Canadian
Prairies into the Upper Midwest by the end of the period.

In lower latitudes, a modest mid-level trough likely will be forced
inland across the Oregon/northern California coast, suppressing
initial mid-level ridging across the Great Basin into southern
Rockies. Downstream, in the wake of the weakening remnants of
Milton, forecast to continue migrating east-northeastward through
the subtropical Atlantic, a remnant weak frontal zone, initially
near or just south of the Florida Keys, is forecast to weaken
further. It appears that this will occur beneath generally steady
or slowly rising mid-level heights, as a sheared mid-level
perturbation shifts across and offshore of northern Florida.

Seasonably moisture air will generally remain confined to the south
of the weakening frontal zone, but some low-level moistening is
forecast along an initially quasi-stationary segment of a frontal
zone, to the north of the lower Missouri and Ohio Valleys by early
Saturday.

...Portions of the Midwest into upper Ohio Valley...
Models suggest that weak forcing for ascent and warm mid-levels will
suppress thunderstorm development along and south of the initially quasi-stationary frontal zone. However, downstream of the southern
periphery of the digging mid-level troughing, weak destabilization
rooted within lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection may contribute
to thunderstorm development within a narrow corridor above the
frontal zone/well to the north of the surface front, mainly Saturday
night. Given the generally weak forecast instability and
cloud-bearing layer shear, the potential for severe hail in stronger
storms seems low.

..Kerr.. 10/11/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 110452
SWODY2
SPC AC 110451

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED FOR TYPO IN SYNOPSIS

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Saturday through Saturday night.

...Synopsis...
Strong cyclogenesis appears underway near the Aleutians and, by
early Saturday, models indicate that a broad, deep cyclone will
become centered across the northeastern Pacific/Gulf of Alaska, to
the east of the Aleutians. This is forecast to lead to amplifying
flow across the northern mid-latitudes of North America, including
building mid-level ridging to the east of the Canadian Rockies and
digging downstream mid-level troughing across the eastern Canadian
Prairies into the Upper Midwest by the end of the period.

In lower latitudes, a modest mid-level trough likely will be forced
inland across the Oregon/northern California coast, suppressing
initial mid-level ridging across the Great Basin into southern
Rockies. Downstream, in the wake of the weakening remnants of
Milton, forecast to continue migrating east-northeastward through
the subtropical Atlantic, a remnant weak frontal zone, initially
near or just south of the Florida Keys, is forecast to weaken
further. It appears that this will occur beneath generally steady
or slowly rising mid-level heights, as a sheared mid-level
perturbation shifts across and offshore of northern Florida.

Seasonably moist air will generally remain confined to the south of
the weakening frontal zone, but some low-level moistening is
forecast along an initially quasi-stationary segment of a frontal
zone, to the north of the lower Missouri and Ohio Valleys by early
Saturday.

...Portions of the Midwest into upper Ohio Valley...
Models suggest that weak forcing for ascent and warm mid-levels will
suppress thunderstorm development along and south of the initially quasi-stationary frontal zone. However, downstream of the southern
periphery of the digging mid-level troughing, weak destabilization
rooted within lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection may contribute
to thunderstorm development within a narrow corridor above the
frontal zone/well to the north of the surface front, mainly Saturday
night. Given the generally weak forecast instability and
cloud-bearing layer shear, the potential for severe hail in stronger
storms seems low.

..Kerr.. 10/11/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 111722
SWODY2
SPC AC 111720

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The severe-thunderstorm threat appears low on Saturday.

...Parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley...
A large-scale mid/upper-level trough will begin to amplify across
parts of the north-central into the eastern CONUS on Saturday, as a
shortwave trough and attendant jet maximum move southeastward from
the Canadian Prairies into the northern Plains and upper Midwest. A
surface low is expected to develop during the day near the IA/MO/IL
border region, along a quasi-stationary surface front. This low is
forecast to move eastward along the front toward the upper Ohio
Valley during the afternoon and evening, as a trailing cold front
begins to move southeastward.

While modest low-level moistening and steepening midlevel lapse
rates will support weak to locally moderate destabilization
along/south of the front, potential for warm-sector storm
development still appears limited in the absence of more robust
moisture return. However, low-level warm/moist advection will
support potential for elevated convection to the north of the front,
especially from late afternoon into the evening across northern
IL/IN, northwest OH and far southern lower MI. Gradually deepening
deep-layer flow/shear could support transient storm organization,
though with only modest elevated buoyancy (MUCAPE generally 500-1000
J/kg) currently expected north of the front, potential for severe
hail is too uncertain to include probabilities at this time.

..Dean.. 10/11/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 120452
SWODY2
SPC AC 120451

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA...PARTS OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN OHIO...SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEASTERN
TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may develop in a corridor across West Virginia,
and perhaps into portions of eastern Kentucky and southwestern
Virginia, late Sunday afternoon and evening. Some may be
accompanied by small to marginally severe hail and potentially
damaging wind gusts.

...Synopsis...
Mid/upper flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into
North America will remain amplified through this period, with
further amplification of large-scale troughing forecast across the
Upper Midwest and Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley. Models indicate
at least of couple of vigorous short wave perturbations digging
within this troughing, one of which may contribute to modest surface cyclogenesis along a frontal zone across the Ohio Valley into the
Northeast by late Sunday night.

In lower latitudes, a residual mid-level shear axis across the
central Gulf of Mexico and Florida Peninsula will generally
demarcate the northern periphery of higher moisture content air.
However, a continued gradual moistening of the boundary layer ahead
of the interior U.S. front may contribute to a corridor of modest destabilization across parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys into the
western slopes of the Appalachians by late Sunday afternoon.

...West Virginia into eastern Kentucky/southwest Virginia...
There remains variability among the models concerning the evolution
of surface cyclogenesis across the Ohio Valley into the Northeast
Sunday through Sunday night. However, there still appears a general
consensus that a moistening, but well-mixed, boundary layer will
become characterized by CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg by late
Sunday afternoon, within at least a narrow pre-frontal corridor
across Tennessee/Kentucky into West Virginia. It appears that peak destabilization will coincide with strengthening westerly deep-layer
wind fields, including to 50+ kt in the 700-500 mb layer. Forcing
for ascent in advance of stronger mid-level height falls, which may
not begin overspreading the region until after dark, remains more
unclear. However, a developing pre-frontal low-level upslope flow
component may aid thunderstorm initiation across parts of West
Virginia, and perhaps into eastern Kentucky and southwestern
Virginia by early Sunday evening. If this occurs, the environment
probably will be conducive to a few stronger storms posing a risk
for hail and potentially damaging wind gusts.

..Kerr.. 10/12/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 121705
SWODY2
SPC AC 121704

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1204 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms cannot be ruled out in a corridor across West
Virginia, and perhaps into portions of eastern Kentucky and
southwestern Virginia, late tomorrow (Sunday) afternoon and evening.
Small to marginally severe hail and potentially damaging wind gusts
are the main concerns.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will amplify across the eastern half of the CONUS
as a 500 mb cut-off low meanders over the Interior West and a second
upper trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow (Sunday). A surface
low will translate across the eastern OH Valley and Mid Atlantic
states during the day, promoting deep-layer ascent amid just enough
moisture return to support thunderstorm development (a couple of
which may be strong). Meanwhile, steep lapse rates associated with
the 500 mb low over the Four Corners, in conjunction with adequate
surface heating and orographic lift, may support isolated
thunderstorm development. Daytime heating of a moist airmass may
also encourage the development of a few thunderstorms over the
southern FL Peninsula.

...Central Appalachians...
As the surface low progresses toward the Mid Atlantic, a cold front
will sag southeastward across the eastern OH Valley into the central Appalachians by afternoon peak heating, providing lift for at least
isolated thunderstorm development. Surface dewpoints are expected to
only reach the mid 50s F. However, 7+ C/km low and mid-level lapse
rates may support over 1000 J/kg SBCAPE, that combined with rapidly strengthening vertical wind profiles and 35+ kts of effective bulk
shear, may support organized multicells immediately ahead of the
cold front. A couple of damaging gusts or instances of small to
marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out with the stronger storms.

..Squitieri.. 10/12/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 130431
SWODY2
SPC AC 130430

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the
U.S. Monday through Monday night.

...Synopsis...
Latest model output indicates little change from prior runs for this
period, with the mid-latitude westerlies forecast to remain modestly
amplified but generally progressive Monday through Monday night.
Within this regime, it appears that initially more prominent ridging
over the Canadian Prairies will begin to break down. As the ridge
axis takes on a more notable positive tilt (toward Hudson Bay), the
axis of large-scale downstream troughing will gradually do the same
across the eastern U.S. into the Canadian Maritimes.

Within the cyclonic flow, a significant lead short wave impulse
remains forecast to be accompanied by strengthening
lower/mid-tropospheric cyclogenesis near the north Atlantic Seaboard
into the Canadian Maritimes/St. Lawrence Valley. As a similar
trailing perturbation digs across the international border and Upper
Midwest, toward the lower Missouri and Ohio Valleys, cool surface
ridging is forecast to build southward into much of the interior
U.S. by the end of the period.

It appears that the leading edge of the cold intrusion will advance
through the south Atlantic and Gulf Coast states, well south of the
mid-level cold core (shifting across the upper Great Lakes) and
upper support for large-scale ascent, with little appreciable risk
for thunderstorms. As flow trends cyclonic across the Gulf of
Mexico into subtropical Atlantic, an embedded residual mid-level
shear axis, demarcating the northern periphery of a remnant plume of
tropical moisture, likely will gradually shift southeast of the
southern Florida Peninsula and Keys.

Across the West, large-scale mid-level ridging may continue to
develop inland of the Pacific coast through the Rockies. However, a
weakening low initially over the Great Basin may generally be
maintained while slowly digging southeastward, to the west and
southwest of the Four Corners region. Mid/upper forcing for ascent
and cooling to the northeast of this feature may contribute to
sufficient destabilization to support convection capable of
producing lightning across the higher terrain of Utah/adjacent
northern Arizona into eastern Colorado Monday afternoon and evening.

..Kerr.. 10/13/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 131649
SWODY2
SPC AC 131647

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1147 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms remain possible across portions of the Four Corners
and the Great Lakes tomorrow (Monday).

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will amplify across the eastern half of the CONUS
as an embedded mid-level impulse pivots around the trough over the
MS Valley tomorrow (Monday). A mid-level cut-off low will also
meander over the Four Corners region. As the aforementioned
mid-level impulse overspreads the Great Lakes, cooler temperatures
aloft atop warm waters will support near-dry adiabatic lapse rates,
which may support deep-enough convection to foster a few lightning
flashes (especially over water). Cooler temperatures aloft will also
support enough buoyancy (albeit scant) over the higher terrain of
the Four Corners region, with isolated lightning flashes possible
when also considering orographic lift.

..Squitieri.. 10/13/2024

$$

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