8" of snowfall are lower (closer to 30-40%), but there are somemembers of the WSE that show 10-20% probabilities for >12" in
6".
8". In fact, there are medium-high chances (60-80%) for >12" inthe >6,000ft elevations of the northern Washington Cascades. The
8". In fact, there are medium-high chances (60-80%) for >12" inthe >6,000ft elevations of the northern Washington Cascades. The
4" of snowfall over northern Maine, but the bulk of WSE membersshow <3" of snow in places like Caribou. This situation will be
6" of snowfall through Saturday afternoon. Meanwhile, as theupper trough in California heads for the Four Corners region, a
8,000ft will have the best odds of picking up heavier snowfallamounts. WPC probabilities show moderate-to-high chances (60-80%)
70%) chance of at least 6 inches of snowfall through earlySaturday over parts of Wyoming. Lighter amounts are forecast
80%) in the San Juan mountains.
0.1" are lower moderate (30-50%) over northwest OK. Furthermore,as low pressure shifts east along the surface front Saturday, the
6" generally moderate in favored U.P. and L.P. belts (Porcupineand eastern U.P. coast and near Grand Traverse Bay.
6" of snowfall topping out between 40-60% in the White Mountainsand as far north as Maine's North Woods. Expect hazardous travel
4" totals. The WSSI-P does show as high as 30-40% odds ofwitnessing Minor impacts in the San Juans on Thursday.
70%) for snowfall totals >18" in the WA/OR Cascades and theOlympics. Elevations >4,000ft have the best odds to see snowfall
70%) for snowfall totals >18" in the WA/OR Cascades and theOlympics. Elevations >4,000ft have the best odds to see snowfall
4" of snowfall. Latest WPC probabilities for >4" continue to topout around the low chance of 10% along the North Dakota/Manitoba
6" are moderate (30-70%) for these areas with low probs for >12"over the northern Adirondacks.
6".
4" are moderate to high (>40%) in WNW flow snow belts over andsouth of the Keweenaw Peninsula and far eastern sections of the
70%) for snowfall totals >8" near Apache National Forest andinto the San Juans above 9,000ft. The WSSI indicates Moderate
50% over a large area from northern central KS northward tocentral SD. Within this footprint, probabilities for at least 12
70%) of experiencing Minor Impacts during that same time frame,particularly for elevations >7,000ft. The Snow Amount and Snow
4" around Caribou, while additional ice accumulations >0.1" arelow chance as well (20-30%). Still, the combination of both snow
500 kg/m/s), are above the 97.5 climatological percentile Fridaymidday with an 850-925mb moisture tap that extends into the
3,000ft will be most preferred for heavy snowfall >6",highlighted by the WPC PWPF which shows high chances in those
40%) over the Klamath mountains, Shasta-Siskiyous, and northernSierra.
6" from the eastern third of the CO/NM border up through westernKS and again over southeast Neb/northeast KS where the initial
6" from the eastern third of the CO/NM border up through westernKS and again over southeast Neb/northeast KS where the initial
70%) for Moderate Impacts from just south of the I-80 pass inthe Sierra Nevada down the spine of the range itself, as well as
6" are >50% for typical NW and W snow belts, with WSW flow overlakes Erie/Ontario favoring areas just south of BUF and into/just
50-80%) for >18" of snowfall in the Oregon Cascades, withsimilar chances for >12" in the Blue Mountains and Boise
80%) for snowfall totals >18" through Saturday afternoon withsome ridges topping 4 feet in the tallest peaks.
4" are over the U.P. and western L.P with the aforementioned subDGZ air spreading in limiting snowfall. as the probabilities for
0.25" ice is 40-80% for the southern/central Willamette Valleyand northern OR Coast Ranges to the coast/sea level.
70%) over the eastern U.P. of Michigan and especially in thesingle band setups east of Lakes Erie/Ontario in WSW flow
70%) downwind of Lakes Erie/Ontario with moderate probs for atleast 12 inches (40-70%). Areas of the U.P. of Michigan,
70%) for >18" of snow through Thursday. The Big/Little Belt andBig Snowy mountains of central Montana sport moderate-to-high
70%) for >18" of snow through Thursday. The Big/Little Belt andBig Snowy mountains of central Montana sport moderate-to-high
0.1" in the Catskills tonight and through Wednesday morning. Asthe >0C warm nose at low levels rushes north, snow will transition
0.1" in those areas. As the new coastal low begins to take shapeSunday afternoon, a brief double-barrel low structure will form as
12" are 40-70% over the central and southern Sierra Nevada. Liftaided by the low to the north and jet to the south looks to allow
70%) for snowfall totals >8" in these mountain ranges throughMonday evening. Farther south, elevations >6,000ft in the
6,000ft in the Transverse Ranges and as far east as neighboring6,000ft+ peaks north and west of Las Vegas can expect 1-3ft of
70%) for snowfall totals >12" in portions of these mountainranges Tuesday and into Wednesday. The Probabilistic WSSI (WSSI-P)
6,000ft peaks of the Transverse Ranges, as well as into the partsof south-central Nevada. As the trough slowly moves east Monday
300 kg/m/s IVT (above the 97.5 climatological percentileaccording to NAEFS) through Arizona and into the heart of the Four
10,000ft peaks of the an Juans, along the Mogollon Rim, over theGila Mountains of eastern Arizona, and near Zion National Park in
9,000ft. Similar high probabilities for >8" exist in the higherterrain of the Wasatch, near Zion National Park in southern Utah
4" of snowfall on Thursday and into early Friday morning. Similar probabilities for >4" of snow are depicted across the Bluemountains of northeast Oregon late Thursday through Friday
4" of snow in these areas. What this has done, however, is flexedthe robust 850-700mb frontogenesis signal to align better over
4" of snow in these areas. What this has done, however, is flexedthe robust 850-700mb frontogenesis signal to align better over
4" of snow in these areas. What this has done, however, is flexedthe robust 850-700mb frontogenesis signal to align better over
4" of snow in these areas. What this has done, however, is flexedthe robust 850-700mb frontogenesis signal to align better over
4" of snow in these areas. What this has done, however, is flexedthe robust 850-700mb frontogenesis signal to align better over
70%) for Minor Impacts in the highest elevations of theWashington Cascades, the Bitterroots of northern Idaho, and the
6" in these mountain ranges on Wednesday with periods of heavysnow likely to stick around into Thursday.
12". Along the Laurel Highlands and as far south as GarrettCounty, MD, WPC PWPF reaches moderate chances (40-60%) for >6" of
6" in these mountain ranges on Wednesday with periods of heavysnow likely to stick around into Thursday.
12". Along the Laurel Highlands and as far south as GarrettCounty, MD, WPC PWPF reaches moderate chances (40-60%) for >6" of
70%) for snowfall totals >12" from Wednesday night and into theearly morning hours on Friday. Meanwhile, WPC 24-hour PWPF sports moderate-to-high chances (50-70%) for snowfall totals >6" in the
8" of snowfall along the Park Range of northern Colorado. Farthereast, broad 200-500mb troughing over the Intermountain West and
4" Thursday night into Friday. This setup, given the impressivemesoscale signal, could lead to localized amounts surpassing 8"
2"/hr snowfall rates across the northern tier of Michigan'sMitten is between 20-40%, but >1"/hr rates are fairly high
4" are also depicted in parts of western New York. The snowassociated with the strong WAA and 850-700mb FGEN will also
8" of snowfall along the Park Range of northern Colorado. Farthereast, broad 200-500mb troughing over the Intermountain West and
1" in these areas Friday night into Saturday morning withcommunities along the Mason-Dixon line, across the Lower
4" are 10-30% over a swath north of St. Louis. Low pressure isexpected to quickly move east from eastern TN across southern VA
50%) in the Sierra crest and Shasta/Siskiyous above about7000ft.
8" is 40-80% over the same terrain as well as SoCal ranges overabout 7000ft.
70%) for Major Impacts due to Snow Rate in the southern SierraNevada. Meanwhile, in the >7,000ft peaks of the Transverse Ranges,
7,000ft, and along the Wasatch and Uinta Ranges >8,000ft.
70%) probabilities for more than 6 inches expands along the ORCascades, into much of the ID terrain including the Salmon River
80%) probabilities of at least 18 inches for Day 3.
70%) over northern MN around International Falls. Within thisarea, WPC probabilities of much higher snowfall (>12 inches) is
4" of snow are depicted over parts of the eastern Michigan.Meanwhile, areas such as the Catskills, Berkshires, Green
5 feet for storm totals through Saturday) with hourly snowfallrates >3"/hr likely Friday night into Saturday along the Sierra
0.75"), but several inches of snow are likely within the band,where WPC probabilities for at least 4 inches are highest (>70%).
50% over the Tetons and Wind River Range.
70%) over the length of the Sierra on Saturday. With heightfalls extending eastward to the Rockies, a large area of light to
70%) for 3"/hr snowfall rates after 00Z Saturday that persistinto Saturday Any time between 00Z Sat - 00Z Sun, there are at
50%. As height falls reach the Plains (~100W), weaker areas oflow pressure may form and lift northeastward, promoting bands of
6" are 20-50%.
6" is generally 10-40% for the Cascades through theShasta/Siskiyou, then increasing to 40-90% for Day 3 with the
8" of snowfall as well.
8" of snowfall as well.
8" feature the secondary wave with 20-40% probs east of LakeErie, and 40-80% probs from areas east of Lake Ontario through the
8" feature the secondary wave with 20-40% probs east of LakeErie, and 40-80% probs from areas east of Lake Ontario through the
8" is 40-80% for the Olympics, Cascades and a few ranges incentral and far northern ID as well as northwest MT.
5,000ft will have the best odds of seeing cumulative snowfalltotals top 12 inches for this event. As the upper low moves ashore
6,000ft most favored. By 12Z Saturday - 12Z Sunday, the low-to-moderate chance swath (30-50%) for >6" of snowfall grows
6,000ft, through central and eastern Montana, and into westernNorth Dakota. Of course, the storm system will continue to produce
1"/hr (HREF probs ~40-70%). Snowfall overnight will be easier toaccumulate (MN/WI) but have trended ratios down from NBM guidance
50% mostly over the CO Rockies on Sunday and above 8000ft or so.
70%) for >12" of snowfall for the event. In fact, at elevationsOnce the snowfall threshold dips to >6", the Olympics and Cascades,
8,000ft, high chances (>70%) for >18" of snowfall are depicted.
12" across Vermont's Northeast Kingdom, northern New Hampshire,and northern Maine. Snow will conclude shortly after midnight as
7,000ft). By Saturday night, snow will advance east towards theWasatch, the Mogollon Rim, the western Colorado Rockies, and
7,000ft before gradually dissipating by Monday morning.
8" of snowfall in central South Dakota, along the MinnesotaArrowhead, and in northern Wisconsin. Farther south, as a strong
70%) of at least eight inches of snow extending from portions ofthe Dakotas and north-central Nebraska northeastward through
70%) for snowfall totals >8" in all these mountain rangesthrough early Thursday morning, while the northern Sierra Nevada
70%) along the Mogollon Rim in AZ, the San Juans in CO, thehigher peaks in central/northeast NV, and then across the Uintas
12" in the Adirondacks, as well as the Green and White Mountains,and into portions of central Maine. There are even some moderate-
4" in the Porcupines a little farther to the west of the Hurons.
70%) for snowfall totals >12" in the central and southern SierraNevada, portions of northern Nevada (elevations >6,000ft), the Blue
70%) over these ranges but also extending northward throughcentral Montana and southward into northern CO with lower values
6" are 40-80% through these CA ranges.
6"is 40-70% over this terrain.
6" encompasses much of the terrain above 7500' with the highestprobabilities running between 50-80% with upwards of 90% in the
12" are within the aforementioned area as well with probabilitiesof exceedance running between 30-60% with best chance located into
6" encompasses much of the terrain above 7500' with the highestprobabilities running between 50-80% with upwards of 90% in the
12" are within the aforementioned area as well with probabilitiesof exceedance running between 30-60% with best chance located into
6" encompasses much of the terrain above 7500' with the highestprobabilities running between 50-80% with upwards of 90% in the
12" are within the aforementioned area as well with probabilitiesof exceedance running between 30-60% with best chance located into
6" is highest on Day 2.5 within the Absarokas over to theBighorns with values of 70-90%. In the Lewis Range/Glacier National
8" of snowfall along the Colorado Front Range at elevationsarea) sport low-to moderate chances (20-50%) for snowfall totals
9,000ft. In the central High Plains (including the Denver metro
2" with the more elevated areas (Boulder metro, the LaramieRange, near Cheyenne) closer to the 40-50% probabilistic range.
9,000ft in the Absaroka, Tetons, Wind River, and Colorado Rockies.WPC PWPF generally shows low chances (10-30%) for >6" of snowfall
6" is 30-60% over the OR/southern WA Cascades, higher terrain overthe Great Basin ranges, especially over northeast NV and UT, and
4" is generally 40-70% over the CO Rockies into southern WY.
70%) for snowfall amounts >12" in the Little Belt Mountains andalong the Lewis Range with moderate-to-high chances for >18"
12" snowfall totals, most likely to witness Moderate Impactsthrough Thursday.
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