ACUS11 KWNS 161555
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161554=20
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-161730-

Mesoscale Discussion 1575
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1054 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

Areas affected...Portions of northeast/north-central TX into far
southeastern OK and extreme southwestern AR

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 161554Z - 161730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds may gradually increase late
this morning with thunderstorms moving eastward. While watch
issuance appears unlikely in the short term (next hour or so),
trends will be closely monitored.

DISCUSSION...A strongly unstable airmass, with MLCAPE already
reaching 2500-3000+ J/kg and DCAPE 1000-1200 J/kg, is present late
this morning along and east/southeast of a loosely organized cluster
of thunderstorms ongoing across north-central/northeast TX into far southeastern OK. Recent radar trends have shown some strengthening
of updrafts on the leading edge, and the potential for isolated
strong to damaging winds reaching near-severe levels appears to be
slowly increasing. The primary uncertainty regarding the overall
magnitude of the severe threat remains weak winds/shear at low/mid
levels. While some convective organization should persist with the
internal dynamics of the MCV, it remains unclear if a more
substantial severe/damaging wind threat will develop over the next
couple of hours as this cluster moves east-southeastward across the
ArkLaTex and into a more unstable airmass. Watch issuance appears
unlikely in the short term (next hour or so), but convective trends
will be closely monitored.

..Gleason/Bunting.. 07/16/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-ZuH1hiJcQBzvS8aVmsn28BGxueV5r7t-oUemmiSVwnpKFX-a2FrlGfAilVB-pi_XQ9-EOrgD= LmqVxROIfgs_fy1qJE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 32839648 33069624 33719604 34049603 34179567 34009432
33419390 32389465 32499594 32839648=20


=3D =3D =3D
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