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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1286

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jun 26 20:24:53 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 262024
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 262024=20
    SDZ000-NEZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-262300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1286
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0324 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023

    Areas affected...portions of northern Wyoming...far southeastern
    Montana...far western South Dakota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 262024Z - 262300Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing across portions of the
    northern High Plains. A few supercells may develop, supporting a
    risk for large hail (including an instance or two of 2+ inch
    stones), as well as a couple of severe gusts. Convective trends are
    being monitored for the need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance
    later this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar imagery and satellite data suggests
    that convection is gradually deepening along the higher terrain of
    the Rockies. Though convection has yet to move off of the higher
    terrain, stronger forcing should begin to overspread the northern
    High Plains in the next few hours in association with an approaching
    500 mb vort max over northwestern UT. While low-level moisture is
    not overly rich, 8+ C/km lapse rates from the surface to 500 mb is
    supporting 2000+ J/kg SBCAPE/MUCAPE, which is adequate for supercell development given the presence of 40+ kt effective bulk shear values
    (driven by straight, long hodographs). The deep-layer speed shear
    may support sufficient enough hail growth for stones to exceed 1
    inches in diameter, with a couple of 2+ inch diameter stones
    possible. A few severe gusts may also occur with the heavier
    supercell precipitation cores given the steep low-level lapse rates.

    It is unclear exactly when a significant uptick in convective
    intensity and relatively robust supercell development will occur. It
    is possible that such development may not occur for at least a few
    more hours. Nonetheless, Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance will
    likely be needed at some point this afternoon or evening and
    convective trends are being monitored closely for more precise
    timing of the watch issuance.

    ..Squitieri/Grams.. 06/26/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8WoAe9Ms-hYfCsgrdThX8fEDYmabJNvlJYnAFOMejV9FacUJ-Uzhv2CuHyk_XZSIs2ouiRizE= FXhKYGfv288z_hVn5g$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

    LAT...LON 43391037 44540896 45490731 45640592 45640456 45070351
    44510309 44180317 43120370 42680452 42390547 42400736
    42570816 43391037=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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