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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0884

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat May 27 20:26:59 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 272026
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 272026=20
    TXZ000-NMZ000-272230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0884
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0326 PM CDT Sat May 27 2023

    Areas affected...Far southeastern New Mexico and southwest TX

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 272026Z - 272230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms will increase in coverage into the evening hours,
    with the potential for strong/severe gusts and perhaps isolated
    large hail. A watch is being issued shortly.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development is gradually increasing in the
    vicinity of a north-south-oriented dryline/lee trough in far
    southwest TX this afternoon -- where a plume of steep midlevel lapse
    rates is evident. During the next few hours, continued diurnal
    heating and mesoscale ascent along the dryline should favor an
    uptick in storm coverage into the evening hours. Regional VWP
    indicates 30-40 kt of midlevel southwesterly flow atop moist east-southeasterlies (middle/upper 50s to lower 60s dewpoints) --
    supportive of organized storms given continued diurnal
    destabilization (decreasing CINH) east of the dryline.=20=20

    Initial storms closer to the dryline may remain somewhat separated
    and pose a risk of isolated large hail; however, the steep lapse
    rate environment and expected increase in storm coverage should
    primarily result in a risk of strong/severe outflow winds owing to
    upscale growth with eastward extent this afternoon/evening. A watch
    will be issued shortly.

    ..Weinman/Hart.. 05/27/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8trOPF0wdwYZX7F21oopJkElwi9ehkDplxrjwAfRbrbaJsrBBREI8Sn9T9hgagWwNNfKvFah9= 1vwq5-61BFSW6rMNZM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MAF...EPZ...

    LAT...LON 30480497 31220489 32130473 32410453 32570420 32600376
    32510330 32300307 31940282 31440265 30740256 30030254
    29350271 28940308 28970347 29260408 29640458 30480497=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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