ACUS11 KWNS 080226
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080225=20
TXZ000-080330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0950
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0925 PM CDT Wed Jun 07 2023

Areas affected...portions of western Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 080225Z - 080330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few severe gusts and instances of large hail are
possible this evening with an MCS. However, the limited duration,
areal coverage, and ongoing nature of the severe threat suggests
that a WW issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Multicellular clusters and supercell structures have
grown upscale into an MCS across western Texas. This MCS continues
to propagate eastward into a boundary layer that has yet to
completely stabilize, with near 80F surface temperatures and 8 C/km
low-level lapse rates (per 02Z mesoanalysis) still present, which
will allow for efficient downward momentum transport amid
evaporative cooling. KMAF velocity data shows strong inbound
velocities at the 0.5 degree scan, suggesting that a strong
downburst or a rear-inflow jet is present within the ongoing MCS.
Severe gusts may accompany this feature, with some of the heavier
cores still capable of producing some severe hail. However,
low-level shear is weak (per the latest MAF VAD), and when also
considering boundary-layer stabilization, the severe threat should
remain limited in coverage and duration, and a WW issuance is not
expected.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 06/08/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-gXuYBCmxjc-jKk0QkegXkvF3Mo5OEtGXCcmoVzqRzYYVmO2yRAKW6pCwatkTXbeFvsVkAuPm= p8JbXckigI0N6YDEsY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 31860306 32890288 33620243 33840204 33900133 33680087
33200054 32610033 31970031 31510068 31360142 31430238
31860306=20


=3D =3D =3D
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