ACUS11 KWNS 072226
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072226=20
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-080100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0949
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0526 PM CDT Wed Jun 07 2023

Areas affected...Southeast North Dakota...Northeast South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 072226Z - 080100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat with a potential for hail and
wind damage will continue for a few more hours across parts of the
eastern Dakotas. The threat is expected to be too marginal for
weather watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...A north-to-south quasi-stationary front is currently
located across the eastern Dakotas. Along and to the east of the
boundary, surface dewpoints are in the lower to mid 60s F. This is
contributing to a narrow corridor of moderate instability, where the
RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/Kg range. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the instability axis, with a couple
severe storms located to the west of Fargo, North Dakota. The Grand
Forks, North Dakota WSR-88D VWP suggests 0-6 km shear is near 30
knots. This combined with steep low-level lapse rates near 8.0 C/km
will continue to support an isolated severe threat early this
evening. Although most of the storms will remain multicellular, an
isolated supercell with large hail will be possible. A few strong
wind gusts may also occur. The threat is expected to persist for a
couple more hours.

..Broyles/Hart.. 06/07/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8xKQMDZCun636dfNzq2aZboJZQVoLoUHP5GTBmtjaleVi3xixxgliNVn6B1AwP-24Owg4JnXm= EzgwJIncAsu-ESi2PM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON 47679776 47599839 47379869 46879884 45219826 44149798
43899753 43879719 44189655 44869643 46099653 46959658
47589693 47679776=20


=3D =3D =3D
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