• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0948

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jun 7 21:50:55 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 072150
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 072150=20
    TXZ000-NMZ000-072315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0948
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0450 PM CDT Wed Jun 07 2023

    Areas affected...portions of southwestern Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 072150Z - 072315Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Occasional instances of severe hail and wind are possible
    with the stronger storms through the remainder of the afternoon into
    early evening. The severe threat is expected to remain isolated
    enough such that a WW issuance appears unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...Multiple multicell clusters and supercells have
    developed over the past hour across the TX Trans Pecos region. A
    mid-level shortwave trough and associated 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse
    rates continue to overspread upper 50s/low 60s F dewpoints,
    resulting in increasing buoyancy (1000+ J/kg MLCAPE) and deep-layer
    ascent to support the continued intensification of storms. Modest
    mid-level flow is also overspreading southwestern Texas, resulting
    in lengthy hodographs and accompanying 35-45 kts of effective bulk
    shear. Large hail may accompany the stronger storms, with severe
    gusts also possible (given the well-mixed boundary layer and 9+ C/km
    low-level lapse rates). However, the overall severe threat should
    remain relatively isolated and a WW issuance is not currently
    expected.

    ..Squitieri/Hart.. 06/07/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8Bt-Q4bK73JZUH2wOaiT74Ew6LxZ6n1qRAEC6Zhz7-GFC1lMImY_DvWuChZCgH-pnudYFrQgj= cSxrXxnZhcjePTCI3U$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...EPZ...

    LAT...LON 30250461 31060520 31520556 31900493 32030393 32000250
    31530176 30970141 30410157 30080230 29910382 30250461=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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