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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0945

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jun 7 17:38:51 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 071738
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 071738=20
    FLZ000-071945-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0945
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1238 PM CDT Wed Jun 07 2023

    Areas affected...eastern FL Peninsula

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 071738Z - 071945Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage will increase through the afternoon.
    Strong gusts to 45-50 mph and small hail will be possible with the
    strongest storms as they shift east from the central Peninsula and
    offshore of the east coast.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm coverage and intensity is gradually
    increasing across the FL Peninsula early this afternoon, with a
    recent gust to 39 kt reported at KBKV. A seasonally moist airmass is
    in place, with surface dewpoints generally from 68-72 F. While
    midlevel lapse rates will remain poor, strong heating of this moist
    airmass has aided in moderate instability, with MLCAPE values around
    1500-2000 J/kg noted. This should promote periodic strong updrafts
    amid marginal effective shear. Shear will remain somewhat marginal
    for long-lived, organized structures, but very steep low-level lapse
    rates from the central into eastern parts of the Peninsula will
    support water-loaded downbursts. Isolated strong gusts to 45-50 mph
    will be possible. While midlevel lapse rates are poor, regional VWP
    data show elongated hodographs. Additionally, cooler temperatures at
    500 mb (around -11 C) may be sufficient for small hail in
    stronger/more robust thunderstorm cores. Overall, severe-caliber
    wind/hail is expected to remain sparse, and a watch is not expected.

    ..Leitman/Grams.. 06/07/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9Rk6WZMqrKA4E6JLD2SYrPoWm-R8rrj7E8q8h3F_3oSv-AKQAR2KZXzeV_VzdLjAEwpKrz_pL= Ry76gLcWpeRT7I6J5U$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

    LAT...LON 29508146 29238098 28028032 26527992 25528005 25358038
    25518073 26288105 27298140 28188171 28778177 29178168
    29508146=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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