• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0943

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jun 6 20:32:18 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 062032
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 062031=20
    NMZ000-COZ000-062230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0943
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0331 PM CDT Tue Jun 06 2023

    Areas affected...portions of central and northern New Mexico...far
    southeastern Colorado

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 062031Z - 062230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of hail and gusty winds possible
    through the afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development has been ongoing across
    portions of far eastern Arizona and New Mexico. A few of these
    storms have produced nickel to quarter size hail across eastern
    Arizona and northeastern New Mexico. Surface objective analysis
    indicates daytime heating yielding around 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE atop
    steep lapse rates through the profile. Increasing southerly flow
    from a mid-level jet max across Arizona has led to around 20 kts of
    shear, which is largely speed shear as winds are uniform in
    direction with height. This environment will favor multi-cell
    clusters, a few of which may produce instances of severe hail and
    gusty winds. Weak shear for organization is expected to keep
    coverage of this threat too localized to warrant watch issuance.

    ..Thornton/Grams.. 06/06/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7OKpSVa7SJ08Q-3sZq44IZBsB5svT16O4iCJFrhWLttWoQcqb8ATmBFyr52q2VCSEu60EUJ2L= PPZ-t5Zqx52WbAVbJ8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MAF...PUB...ABQ...EPZ...

    LAT...LON 35810577 36370543 36680528 37120485 37260471 37420443
    37570405 37430317 37090314 35790322 35220332 33780435
    33370443 32750495 32720496 32490615 32630654 33070726
    33620774 33750811 33970856 34320870 34610885 35010888
    35310879 35480871 35320801 35340698 35810577=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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