ACUS11 KWNS 052344
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052343=20
CAZ000-060115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0940
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 PM CDT Mon Jun 05 2023

Areas affected...portions of central California

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 052343Z - 060115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A couple instances of marginally severe hail may accompany
the stronger storms into this evening. The severe threat should
remain isolated and a WW issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have been increasing in number and
intensity over the past 1-2 hours, with NLDN data showing an
increase of lightning flashes along the southern Sierra, and MRMS
mosaic radar data showing 30 DBZ cores exceeding 45 kft with some of
the storms. RAP forecast soundings depict tall/thin CAPE profiles,
with significant amounts of convective inhibition. Widespread 9+
C/km mid-level lapse rates and speed-shear-driven elongated
hodographs suggest that some cells could become organized, but these
storms would be confined to the higher terrain, with the potential
for producing at least brief bouts of marginally severe hail and
perhaps a relatively more copious amount of smaller stones.
Nonetheless, the severe threat should remain isolated and a WW
issuance is not expected.

..Squitieri/Thompson.. 06/05/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-rH7LoYBS6u0XcYXbF-pgwkwHTsBIPhly4vKYK44R_1CWmOC14Zsyh1s4gvZS_mF8Efb5_XII= U11eqkT61OJ9JUqxOE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...REV...HNX...STO...

LAT...LON 36631967 37542018 38392042 38672026 38341972 37581903
36871863 36571869 36421933 36631967=20


=3D =3D =3D
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