• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0938

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jun 5 19:58:38 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 051958
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 051957=20
    MTZ000-052200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0938
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0257 PM CDT Mon Jun 05 2023

    Areas affected...Parts of west-central MT

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 051957Z - 052200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms capable of isolated hail and localized
    strong/severe gusts will be possible through the remainder of the
    afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Widely scattered strong thunderstorms have recently
    developed to the west and north of Lewistown, MT, and also north of
    Havre. This activity is being supported by a compact mid/upper-level
    low over ID, and additional thunderstorm development is expected
    through the remainder of the afternoon.=20

    The strongest heating has occurred across west-central MT, where
    MLCAPE has increased to above 1000 J/kg per recent mesoanalyses.
    This region also has somewhat stronger deep-layer shear (compared to
    areas to the west), aided by modestly enhanced southerly midlevel
    flow to the east of the mid/upper-level low. A few strong multicells
    and perhaps a marginal supercell will be possible, with an attendant
    threat of isolated hail and localized strong/severe gusts. With the
    threat expected to remain rather marginal and isolated, watch
    issuance is not expected.

    ..Dean/Grams.. 06/05/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9bSCZXXp_Z2uM05rIBDn5IsulPvmLUoi6qQe1cu3KbOcjPgaryg2o0P0bf9MMctqurk6jUkWz= d-_K4rrsshJ79yGQk4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...

    LAT...LON 48990944 47340918 46520942 46421200 48631177 49011160
    48971118 48990944=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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