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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0936

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jun 5 18:18:07 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 051818
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 051817=20
    TXZ000-052015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0936
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0117 PM CDT Mon Jun 05 2023

    Areas affected...Deep South Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 051817Z - 052015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Potential for severe thunderstorms through the afternoon
    capable of large hail and damaging wind. A watch may be needed
    within the hour.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development continues along a southward
    moving outflow boundary intersecting the sea breeze along the
    southern Texas Coast. Additional storm development is expected along
    and ahead of these boundaries as they move into a more favorable thermodynamic/flow environment where MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg
    overlaps 30-35 kt deep layer shear. Over the last hour, deepening cu
    has been noted across much of Deep South Texas. This environment
    will support clustered cell development, with potential for
    transient supercells. RAP forecast soundings indicate low-level
    shear may remain weak through the afternoon, likely limiting the
    tornado risk. Storm mergers and interactions with outflow may allow
    for enough enhancement of surface vorticity for a tornado, given
    deep moisture and an unstable environment. Large hail and damaging
    wind will be the main threats. A watch may be needed within the
    hour.

    ..Thornton/Grams.. 06/05/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6O-L3xCiqCGemWdZA9iVmPlSn8nDt3ZMsiKUvvB0MmD8Z4rRtDX1cHQ7FSQS_cg7VG0nTaT-N= oXbIn68zQvT7vrz85Q$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...

    LAT...LON 26379881 26609884 26929876 27079865 27349830 27399789
    27349753 27249736 27049719 26639700 26399697 26149695
    25959700 25809717 25879738 25939756 26039770 26039793
    26089819 26169837 26239853 26289870 26379881=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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