• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0931

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jun 3 18:11:56 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 031811
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 031811=20
    LAZ000-TXZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-032015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0931
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0111 PM CDT Sat Jun 03 2023

    Areas affected...eastern Texas...far southern Oklahoma...and far
    western Louisiana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 031811Z - 032015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Marginal risk for hail and gusty winds through the
    afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development has been noted across eastern
    Texas into southern Oklahoma and Arkansas. Daytime heating and dew
    points in the mid 60s to low 70s have allowed air mass
    destabilization, with 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE across eastern Texas
    into western Louisiana and southern Arkansas analyzed through RAP
    surface objective analysis. Deep layer flow is weak, resulting in
    slow moving storms and very little shear in the background
    environment. Given this regime, storms will generally pose a brief
    severe risk and remain pulse in nature. Occasional gusty winds and
    hail will be possible. Given the limited threat, a watch is not
    being considered at this time.

    ..Thornton/Grams.. 06/03/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7o2akp9F0AZ0VQOt41cd-Bv_oTy4rdT5G2eze7LLoE-awtPlLmdSgqkyb_KfZX0mPPPuV7H8j= UpdgkYz-8T5d0qYazw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...

    LAT...LON 31119549 31379575 31989601 32749610 33529592 33899576
    33969476 33819432 33149389 32149351 31559335 31169329
    30689334 30029352 29829365 29739396 29789423 30089470
    30239481 31119549=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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