• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0930

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jun 3 17:28:24 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 031728
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 031727=20
    PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-031930-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0930
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1227 PM CDT Sat Jun 03 2023

    Areas affected...Parts of PA...Eastern OH...Northern/eastern
    WV...Northern MD/VA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 031727Z - 031930Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Strong storms capable of isolated damaging gusts and
    perhaps some hail will be possible this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Relatively strong heating of a modestly moist
    environment has resulted in the development of weak to moderate
    buoyancy early this afternoon across parts of PA, with MLCAPE
    potentially increasing into the 1000-1500 J/kg with time as heating
    continues. A cold front is moving south/southwestward toward the
    region from parts of NY/New England, though little low-level
    convergence is evident in surface observations. Despite relatively
    weak large-scale ascent, cumulus has notably increased across parts
    of PA into far western MD, and additional heating/mixing will
    support scattered thunderstorm development with time this afternoon.

    A belt of somewhat stronger northerly midlevel flow associated with
    a mid/upper-level cyclone over New England is approaching the area
    from the north, though the strongest flow is likely located between
    any available 12Z soundings. Recent guidance suggests the strongest
    midlevel flow will likely be confined to the eastern part of the MCD
    area, where effective shear increasing to around 30 kt may support
    modestly organized southwestward-moving cells/clusters capable of
    locally damaging gusts and some hail. Farther west into western PA,
    storms will tend to be more disorganized within a weakly sheared
    environment, but sufficient buoyancy and steep low-level lapse rates
    may support localized downbursts and small to briefly severe hail.=20

    With the potential for more organized convection likely confined to
    a smaller area across eastern PA/northern MD, and the magnitude of
    the threat expected to remain relatively limited, watch issuance is
    considered unlikely.

    ..Dean/Grams.. 06/03/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_8_25emR8xtCX6xD72F35rA7VPASXBWJ00OeDyLiVeIbusrL5h8vJsONa0rhJMHtxOz36z0FJ= 225-C82Hwa8VFKXbMA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...

    LAT...LON 41128038 41377804 41567656 41427606 41167587 41057591
    39147661 39187826 38197961 38088009 39038090 39958101
    40658097 41128038=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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