ACUS11 KWNS 030121
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030121=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-030315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0927
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0821 PM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023

Areas affected...western North Texas into southwestern and central
Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 256...

Valid 030121Z - 030315Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 256
continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may begin to gradually weaken by 10-11 PM
CDT. Until then, though, some of this activity may occasionally
produce strong to locally severe wind gusts west of the Oklahoma
City metro, as well as across much of western North Texas.

DISCUSSION...Convection has become widespread from the Texas South
Plains through much of western Oklahoma, aided by forcing for ascent
downstream of weak mid-level troughing pivoting in negatively tilted
fashion to the east of the southern Rockies. Stronger storms have
become largely focused in a leading line near or to the cool side of
an extensive convectively generated surface cold pool, with coldest
tops clustering near/north of Clinton OK and in an area centered
roughly 60 miles south/southeast of Childress TX.

The northern cluster may still be supported by inflow of somewhat
more unstable boundary-layer air, while marginally stronger shear
may be aiding the southern cluster.

Gradually stabilizing updraft inflow will probably contribute to
slow weakening of the stronger convection into mid/late evening.=20=20=20 However, before more substantive weakening occurs, ongoing
convection to the west of the Oklahoma City metro could still
produce a few strong surface gusts, while occasional strong to
perhaps severe gusts continue with storms overspreading the
remainder of western North Texas.

..Kerr.. 06/03/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!89OQqX7Vz7dFKhCPUYXj57KoMcxfKVwTdpUvHbsp7G2Gsi_hx88IShrzFKXjIfEut68ZUMwgJ= RPONK0uhzBxP4ANphg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON 35789865 35359789 34619779 33329844 32319898 32160036
32350057 33209978 34079962 34329961 34769897 35379882
35789865=20


=3D =3D =3D
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