• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0926

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jun 2 23:30:46 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 022330
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 022330=20
    TXZ000-030100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0926
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0630 PM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023

    Areas affected...portions of southwestern Texas

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 254...255...

    Valid 022330Z - 030100Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 254, 255 continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watches
    254-255. Large hail and the possibility of a tornado should remain
    the primary threat in the short term, though a transition to severe
    winds is possible as storms grow upscale into an MCS.

    DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar imagery depicts a compact cluster of
    supercells with a history of 3 inch diameter hail just north of the
    Rio Grande. Some of the latest MRMS mosaics depict 50 dBZ cores
    extending up to 50 kft with 2-3 inch MESH cores. These storms
    continue to thrive atop a mixed, very buoyant boundary layer, with
    70+ F surface dewpoints overspread by 7-8 C/km lapse rates from the
    surface to 500 mb, contributing to over 4500+ J/kg of deep, wide
    SBCAPE profiles. Furthermore, a 30+ kt southeasterly low-level jet
    is being overspread by 50+ kt 500 mb speed max, resulting in
    modestly curved, but very long hodographs, supporting the 3+ inch
    diameter hail (when considering the deep/wide CAPE profiles).=20

    Current thinking is that very large hail and an occasional instance
    of strong low-level rotation (possibly a tornado) will remain a
    concern as long as supercell structures can remain relatively
    discrete. However, hydrometeor loading and evaporative cooling
    should support supercell cold pool mergers and subsequent upscale
    growth into an MCS. Given the intense cores, 1+ inch diameter hail
    should remain a threat even after MCS development. However, intense
    cold pool development will support severe wind gusts as the main
    threat with any MCS that materializes.

    ..Squitieri.. 06/02/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-DFkaDsc8KuGFTO0lrMjqfz2UdjLhIyyS0uwSHhTCPNqUKwGLfro6a1jxR3TQkoVYUcHzJXxE= 4ARtG4fbIR8xRG5HXI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

    LAT...LON 29830251 30340252 30710218 30950127 30970016 30759959
    30349935 29929935 29549938 29299954 29219987 29170037
    29230075 29480120 29670171 29720206 29830251=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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