• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0924

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jun 2 20:42:17 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 022042
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 022041=20
    TXZ000-022215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0924
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0341 PM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023

    Areas affected...Eastern parts of the Trans-Pecos into the Edwards
    Plateau

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 254...

    Valid 022041Z - 022215Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 254 continues.

    SUMMARY...An ongoing intense supercell cluster will spread
    southeastward through the remainder of the afternoon, with a
    continued threat of very large hail, localized severe gusts, and a
    couple of tornadoes. Some threat may spread out of WW 254, and a
    downstream watch may eventually be needed.

    DISCUSSION...An intense supercell cluster with a history of
    producing tennis-ball sized hail and a tornado is moving slowly
    southeastward across eastern Pecos County as of 2030 UTC. The
    downstream environment remains quite favorable, with MLCAPE in
    excess of 2500 J/kg, and deep-layer shear increasing to 50-60 kt per
    the recent KMAF VWP. In the short term, this cluster will continue
    to pose a threat of very large hail, with favorably backed surface
    winds downstream helping to maintain a tornado threat as well.=20

    With time, some upscale growth is possible with this cluster, as
    increasingly extensive attendant outflow moves into a very warm and
    unstable downstream environment. The severe threat may expand out of
    WW 254, and downstream watch issuance may eventually be needed into
    parts of the Edwards Plateau.

    ..Dean/Grams.. 06/02/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-JmnCv_z8aB-e7IqfRvjLyBXGs0pZKooRVhhzRYA3VWLxnnNP4ywH_Xgdfbz2GPHVMY8iL7pt= aH7taTKkUutBhdFl7o$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

    LAT...LON 30690286 30810221 30510114 29900068 29560091 29470109
    29550146 29700186 29770221 29790239 29770260 30030295
    30620306 30690286=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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