ACUS11 KWNS 022008
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022008=20
TXZ000-022145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0923
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0308 PM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023

Areas affected...Parts of the TX Panhandle and South Plains

Concerning...Tornado Watch 253...

Valid 022008Z - 022145Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 253 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for severe hail/wind and perhaps a tornado or
two will spread eastward late this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Extensive convection is ongoing at 20 UTC across parts
of the TX Panhandle and South Plains. The environment remains quite
favorable for organized storms, with preconvective MLCAPE of greater
than 2000 J/kg and increasing deep-layer shear noted on the KLBB
VWP. However, severe potential has been complicated by a messy storm
mode thus far this afternoon, with occasional embedded supercells
noted within a slowly propagating, outflow-driven storm cluster.
While a rather strong surface cold pool has developed, with
temperatures falling into the 50s F behind the gust front,
seasonably weak heating and low-level lapse rates across the warm
sector have limited the severe wind risk thus far. However, somewhat
stronger heating downstream into the eastern TX Panhandle and
northwest TX may eventually support a somewhat greater risk for
severe gusts with time.=20

Otherwise, any stronger embedded supercells within the ongoing
cluster will continue to pose a threat for hail, given the favorable instability and deep-layer shear in place. With weakening MLCINH
downstream, additional supercell development remains possible into
parts of northwest TX and the eastern TX Panhandle, as noted with
recent development across Collingsworth County near a
westward-moving outflow. Any sustained supercells could also pose a
threat for a tornado or two, especially where any favorable boundary interactions can occur.

..Dean.. 06/02/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9brRg2WhJFVv-HMqQaBb1jVnaJOFR_zn32hcNJGAgUQIHaHE9w35j1pKKgSwLXr_P37gql7WD= Ihs-AEWD1qI0EMREso$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 33610253 34960184 35630181 36410154 36420064 36410019
35010014 33810027 33600141 33550171 33610253=20


=3D =3D =3D
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