• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0922

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jun 2 19:47:44 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 021947
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 021946=20
    MTZ000-WYZ000-022145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0922
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0246 PM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023

    Areas affected...eastern Montana into far northeastern Wyoming

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 021946Z - 022145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Marginal wind and hail threat through the afternoon and
    early evening.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development has been ongoing across
    eastern Montana this afternoon. A few of these have shown recent
    upticks in intensity over the last hour, as MLCAPE around 1000-1500
    J/kg has slowly been advecting westward along southeasterly flow
    into eastern Montana. Deep layer shear around 25-30 kts is observed
    from KGGW and KBIL. Given the increasing instability and modest deep
    layer shear, a few more organized thunderstorms and a transient
    supercell or two will be possible through the afternoon and early
    evening. Threats will include hail and gusty winds. Given weak
    mid-level lapse rates and weak forcing for ascent (mainly terrain
    driven), the threat will likely remain localized. As such, a watch
    is unlikely to be needed.

    ..Thornton/Grams.. 06/02/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6VkAOQibcFd3-RFgUTHYwTfzBsJFuZUoQIU9ooK4Rv6g1vRT1k_4A_A_AC20s9m_fV64SWq35= 6TxDl_UYz1GnMvcLt0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

    LAT...LON 46810812 47300797 47740737 47980663 48020595 47930551
    47310481 46940468 46120478 45880462 45290430 45160426
    44720437 44560462 44560555 45170687 45650732 46810812=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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