• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0921

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jun 2 19:18:46 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 021918
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 021918=20
    TXZ000-NMZ000-022045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0921
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0218 PM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023

    Areas affected...Parts of the Permian Basin and vicinity

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 253...254...

    Valid 021918Z - 022045Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 253, 254 continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for very large to giant hail and a couple of
    tornadoes will continue through the afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Intense supercells are ongoing at 1915 UTC near Fort
    Stockton, TX, and also just east of Hobbs, NM. The 18Z MAF sounding
    modified for recent surface obs depicts a very favorable hail
    environment, with MLCAPE greater than 2500 J/kg and sufficient
    deep-layer shear for supercells. The ongoing supercells will
    continue to pose a threat for very large to giant hail as they
    spread east/southeastward through the afternoon.=20

    Tornado reports have been received from each of this pair of
    supercells. While low-level shear/SRH will likely remain somewhat
    marginal, favorable low-level thermodynamics and the presence of
    ongoing intense supercells will continue to support some tornado
    threat through the afternoon.=20

    Another supercell has recently developed across extreme southeast
    NM, and additional supercell development will be possible through
    the afternoon along a weak surface trough, and also potentially
    along the trailing outflow from the Fort Stockton supercell.

    ..Dean.. 06/02/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9k21Kzx_SBVHdTbXUdK5G3X5lMD_fGv7_kiN4Yy74qsMeeP7kXF9q4WYuSF_QPyICqii5PNGU= Lg7y6KMxSmCBguqbL0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...

    LAT...LON 33100247 33060200 32560184 31820167 31370156 30580149
    30250223 30590303 31000322 32210338 32870306 33100247=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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