ACUS11 KWNS 012036
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012036=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-012230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0915
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0336 PM CDT Thu Jun 01 2023

Areas affected...Parts of western OK...far south-central KS...and
far northwest TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 012036Z - 012230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Marginally severe hail and strong to locally severe gusts
will be possible this afternoon. A watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Isolated to widely scattered storms are evolving over
western Oklahoma this afternoon -- along the eastern edge of outflow
from earlier convection over the TX Panhandle. Downstream, efficient
diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer (middle 60s surface
dewpoints) is destabilizing inflow for this activity. While VWP data
shows generally weak midlevel flow over the area, a veering
low/midlevel winds profile combined with the destabilizing air mass
could support a few loosely organized updrafts capable of sporadic
marginally severe hail and strong to locally severe gusts this
afternoon. Any severe threat should remain too isolated for a watch.

..Weinman/Guyer.. 06/01/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6uh9_0dt47ixiR_p_PnxTVwJUFXDtVdUmMRiJc2YqV6gVUY15yjTQWcD73d5-F-rEnw0fhgr5= E34XkS2W40KoKnhQa8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...SJT...

LAT...LON 33939975 34319968 34939946 36089931 37139921 37299884
37269841 36979818 36439808 35609810 34669827 33769846
33429867 33379914 33449937 33629958 33939975=20


=3D =3D =3D
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