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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0913

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jun 1 19:46:06 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 011946
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 011945=20
    TXZ000-NMZ000-012215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0913
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0245 PM CDT Thu Jun 01 2023

    Areas affected...Parts of east-central New Mexico into west Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 011945Z - 012215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...The potential for isolated large hail and locally severe
    gusts should increase during the next few hours across parts of
    east-central New Mexico into west Texas.

    DISCUSSION...Isolated to widely scattered convection is evolving
    along the higher terrain in east-central New Mexico this afternoon
    -- where a feed of moist easterly low-level flow (upper 50s to lower
    60s dewpoints) is impinging on the area. While surface temperatures
    are somewhat cool from earlier convection, the rich moisture beneath
    steepening midlevel lapse rates should support an uptick in
    convective intensity during the next few hours. This surface-based
    instability, coupled with strengthening deep-layer shear (35-40 kt
    of effective shear) should support a few organized storms including
    the potential for supercells capable of isolated large hail and
    locally severe gusts. The overall severe threat over this area may
    remain too isolated for a watch; however, the severe threat should
    increase over areas farther east through the afternoon.

    ..Weinman/Guyer.. 06/01/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-55Uab0uWQf1ymc5bavMWQlWFieGPsLhmMzfqNbeV4Pbm6Ijr0bAWJkSscq6YNU0swj-9al4U= syazumd8xDhTE0C3Js$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 35320255 35130244 34300278 33810295 33420315 33230340
    33150395 33160440 33310472 33520495 33760521 34260552
    34590573 35130599 35450614 35820613 36000594 36070559
    35920475 35770434 35550370 35320255=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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