ACUS11 KWNS 312039
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312039=20
SDZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-312315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0910
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0339 PM CDT Wed May 31 2023

Areas affected...Parts of eastern WY...southwestern SD...northern
CO...and the NE Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 312039Z - 312315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few instances of large hail and perhaps locally severe
winds are possible this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Diurnal heating coupled with moist easterly upslope
flow (middle/upper 50s dewpoints) is supporting isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorm development along/east of the higher terrain
in western SD/eastern WY southward into northern CO. VWP data shows
a belt of 20-25-kt midlevel flow atop the low-level easterlies --
yielding around 25-35 kt of effective shear. As storms continue to
evolve and eventually spread eastward into the richer low-level
moisture, a couple instances of large hail and locally severe gusts
will be possible with the more-organized updrafts.

..Weinman/Guyer.. 05/31/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7_O7B7zzHeu_0ReQSJEeAIbRd61C6fbGsjQBlvUGvRjgy6Iw_NthJOw_LYp-nhJxBEed2gh6t= rxcHlGbO4kS6yrmX64$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 43060460 43760444 44150416 44350368 44380296 44260259
43900226 42160266 41360291 40810310 40320342 39950373
39610409 39580445 39660491 39850514 40400515 40920506
41570486 41980475 42460467 43060460=20


=3D =3D =3D
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