• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0909

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed May 31 19:48:02 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 311947
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 311947=20
    KSZ000-COZ000-312145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0909
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0247 PM CDT Wed May 31 2023

    Areas affected...Southeastern Colorado and southwestern KS

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 311947Z - 312145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and locally severe gusts could
    accompany the stronger storms this afternoon. A watch is not
    expected at this time.

    DISCUSSION...Differential heating along the northern edge of outflow
    spreading northeastward across southeastern CO is resulting in
    isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon. While midlevel
    flow and deep-layer shear is relatively weak over the area, VWP data
    shows an increase in 2-3 km flow during the last couple hours --
    which could aid in some updraft organization. With steep deep-layer
    lapse rates and a relatively moist air mass (middle/upper 50s
    dewpoints) in place, the more organized storms could produce
    isolated large hail and locally severe gusts through the afternoon.
    Current thinking is that the severe threat will remain too isolated
    for a watch.

    ..Weinman/Guyer.. 05/31/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_mYGIbgLBWbvVmHBuMKGcg07-khmzvzWnA4M-osI0nTorqf0poKze66icZcl4AizHfYL8LK_K= 3q1p5nGoYSDSuEpGM4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

    LAT...LON 37220250 37580281 37860341 37960384 38220408 38510401
    38730370 38940322 38980258 38810187 38480134 37840105
    37360123 37050165 37030225 37220250=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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