ACUS11 KWNS 311931
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311931=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-312130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0908
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 PM CDT Wed May 31 2023

Areas affected...Eastern NM...Western TX Panhandle into Far West TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 311931Z - 312130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase this
afternoon, with strong to severe storms possible. Main severe threat
is strong gust and large hail, but a tornado or two is possible with
any more discrete storms.

DISCUSSION...Air mass across eastern NM and adjacent portions of the
western TX Panhandle and Far West TX continue to destabilize in the
wake of earlier cloud cover. Temperatures across southeastern NM and
vicinity are in the upper 80s/low 90s with dewpoints in the mid 50s
to low 60s. Temperatures are cooler across more of east-central NM,
where some cloud cover still remains and diurnal heating has been
limited. An axis of moderate buoyancy stretches from the Midland
vicinity northwestward across east-central CO, where the most
favorable low-level moisture is in place amid a recovering outflow
boundary. Cumulus has been deepening across this region as well as
over the higher terrain. Additional destabilization is likely into
more of the CVS vicinity as the cloud cover continues to thin.

Expectation is for thunderstorm initiation within the next two hours
across both the higher terrain of central and south-central NM as
well as east of the terrain over more of east-central NM. High cloud
bases and an outflow-dominant storm mode is likely early, with
lowering cloud bases and potentially more linear organization as the
storms approach the TX/NM border. A more discrete mode is possible
with any development ahead of these linear segments, particularly if
in-situ development occurs near the TX/NM border.=20

Large hail is possible with initial development, as well as any more
discrete storms. A transition to more of a wind threat is likely as
cold pools congeal and move eastward. Stronger southeasterly surface
winds over the southwestern TX Panhandle/TX South Plains region
suggests a relatively better tornado environment, but expectation is
for a predominantly linear mode as storms reach this area.

..Mosier/Guyer.. 05/31/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9-PB3qrGuMK8cbfhhBsDZ-Wugawrhs-YqyZ2Hn6S3Q3deCl4Vv2IDlDjofdG86OK9q35U3P6_= ZuBNgPrfPHFPnD-Lzs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON 34350603 35550581 35780528 35470441 35050300 34450242
33890230 33090235 32290242 31490273 31030312 30940370
31140434 32120459 33420552 34350603=20


=3D =3D =3D
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