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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0898

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 30 19:13:22 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 301913
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 301912=20
    IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-302115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0898
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0212 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023

    Areas affected...Northeastern KS...southeastern NE...northwestern
    MO...and southwestern IA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 301912Z - 302115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...The potential for isolated strong to severe storms capable
    of marginal hail and locally strong gusts should increase during the
    next few hours.

    DISCUSSION...Ahead of a remnant MCV over northeastern KS, locally
    enhanced mesoscale ascent/surface confluence combined with diurnal destabilization of a moist air mass (middle 60s dewpoints) is
    supporting deepening cumulus and isolated thunderstorm development
    this afternoon. This activity is developing along the far eastern
    edge of steep midlevel lapse rates associated with an EML over the
    central Plains and in a corridor of rich boundary-layer moisture.
    While low/midlevel flow is relatively weak over the area, a couple stronger/briefly organized updrafts capable of marginally severe
    hail and locally strong gusts are possible -- aided by the steep
    deep-layer lapse rates and somewhat focused zone of mesoscale
    ascent. Any severe threat should remain isolated.

    ..Weinman/Hart.. 05/30/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8QpRjjsIL9rXp9vqaY55oaXLVgqIpJhil493Jw5Lji__1qJkRucQqqvGsaD0GOgUjJDAfF8wr= 1TRwnA2P5qIxGlJTa4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

    LAT...LON 39449668 39229641 39209578 39279548 39449526 39669506
    39969499 40319492 40859484 41289474 41609470 41969476
    42149500 42189544 42029586 41899610 41739616 41319643
    40839654 40119653 39449668=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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