ACUS11 KWNS 291921
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291921=20
NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-292115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0894
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023

Areas affected...Parts of central NE...northeastern CO...and far
south-central SD

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 291921Z - 292115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The risk of large hail and damaging winds should increase
during the next couple hours. A watch is possible this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows an
expanding/deepening cumulus field in the vicinity of a confluence
axis extending across central Nebraska into northeastern Colorado
this afternoon. Continued diurnal destabilization of a relatively
moist air mass along/south of the boundary (lower 60s dewpoints)
should support isolated to widely scattered convective initiation
during the next couple hours. Regional VWP data indicates a belt of strengthening midlevel westerlies overspreading the confluence axis
-- which should yield around 30 kt of effective shear this
afternoon. Shear vectors and storm motion oblique to the boundary
should favor a few supercell clusters capable of large hail and
damaging winds, and a tornado cannot be ruled out. Trends are being
monitored for a possible watch this afternoon.

..Weinman/Hart.. 05/29/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4QxjVafmU20tNd8zZ-xed2xjEHXnYV9rDwZRTztKdtwLgLScbOpVRE7bkC0VUD_HqxoVI6b-o= rXBe1_UAg8P0l2VcEI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 43039913 42819891 42529890 42119895 41719927 41080006
40720067 40200170 40000251 40060315 40370346 40770350
41060326 41620249 42190158 42600093 42870057 43010018
43109985 43149942 43039913=20


=3D =3D =3D
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