ACUS11 KWNS 281947
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281946=20
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-282145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0890
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023

Areas affected...Parts of the TX/OK Panhandles into central KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 281946Z - 282145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and locally severe gusts are possible
this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are developing along the western
edge of a remnant outflow boundary extending from parts of KS
southwestward into the TX/OK Panhandles this afternoon. Diurnal
destabilization of a relatively moist air mass (lower 60s dewpoints)
beneath steep midlevel lapse rates are contributing to moderate
surface-based instability. Sheltered boundary-layer air near the
recovering outflow boundary is yielding southerly surface winds
beneath 25-30 kt 6-km flow (per VWPs), which will support a few
organized updrafts capable of large hail and locally severe gusts.
Current thinking is that the overall severe threat may remain too
isolated for a watch, though convective trends will be monitored.

..Weinman/Hart.. 05/28/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9KKX-9G1joxfXgR2l9nwlnpTMkUUzLJgIxLeGRyeytA4dO-3i26VpjAxf5gbb3J4OPsKmox9s= FkR1HuIm9Q6OqNaP08$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...

LAT...LON 36970071 37540033 38199985 38899977 39219963 39339931
39269880 38929859 38389854 37869870 37149916 36059997
35420056 35260093 35340127 35560151 36120134 36440113
36970071=20


=3D =3D =3D
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