ACUS11 KWNS 270648
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270648=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-270845-

Mesoscale Discussion 0881
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 AM CDT Sat May 27 2023

Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico...West Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 243...

Valid 270648Z - 270845Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 243
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated large hail and wind-damage threat will
continue across parts of the eastern New Mexico and west Texas over
the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery from Lubbock shows a loosely
organized MCS from northeast New Mexico extending southeastward to
the New-Mexico/Texas state-line directly west of Lubbock. Surface
analysis shows a moist airmass in place across west Texas into
eastern New Mexico, where surface winds are backed to the
east-southeast and dewpoints are in the 60s F. The storms are
located to the east of an axis of moderate instability, where the
RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. In addition, the
latest WSR-88D VWP from Lubbock has 0-6 km shear near 50 knots and
veering winds with height in the low to mid-levels. This profile
combined with steep mid-level lapse rates will favor supercells with
isolated large hail. Wind damage will also be possible near the
stronger downdrafts. The threat is expected to continue for several
more hours as the cells move southeastward across the southern High
Plains.

..Broyles.. 05/27/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4Pyd8qlWOKoBvWcRvi2h6mJGAJLx3ME9ZsbOAOgIWzYy8_GfWroErVHKwxMKnpxlyp8jkl6Hu= 6oHVYxIs7swPyfLlko$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON 33100257 33360230 33810225 34510243 35320285 35710320
35850368 35810433 35600463 35160463 34520423 33600381
33190304 33100257=20


=3D =3D =3D
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