ACUS11 KWNS 270049
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270048=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-270315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0879
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 PM CDT Fri May 26 2023

Areas affected...parts of west Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 270048Z - 270315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Sporadic severe hail will remain possible this evening far east-central New Mexico into the western Panhandle and South Plains.

DISCUSSION...Several storms are currently ongoing from near Clovis
NM to northeast of Midland, TX, generally east of the PW axis and
atop a cooler surface air mass related to outflow from earlier
today. The 00Z MAF sounding shows ample instability with MLCAPE over
1800 J/kg, but a bit of a warm layer near 700 mb where winds are
also weak. Otherwise, a deep, moist boundary layer is in place south
of the remnant boundary.

Steep lapse rates are likely aiding this pseudo-elevated convection,
as large-scale lift is weak except for weak warm advection near 700
mb. That said, deep-layer shear is favorable for long-lived cells
producing severe hail. Unless a more organized/widespread corridor
of severe potential becomes evident, a watch will probably not be
needed for this relatively isolated activity.

..Jewell/Edwards.. 05/27/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8vGxWuspLGy2c62f0gngHlPlmLdgED7CPrkgnwRd2sA7BvgfXtiSoIFOWDgLPteb-9v05leos= a4nHBN7XUn4t3jnsho$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON 31930064 31810089 32010130 32410177 32880204 33940259
34340293 34550330 34730339 34960323 34860230 34240146
33480085 32650055 32150045 31930064=20


=3D =3D =3D
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