ACUS11 KWNS 261753
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261753=20
COZ000-NMZ000-261930-

Mesoscale Discussion 0872
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 PM CDT Fri May 26 2023

Areas affected...Northeast New Mexico and South-Central Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 261753Z - 261930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated storms capable of severe hail/wind will be
possible into the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite depicts isolated convective
development occurring over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Somewhat
marginal yet sufficient low-level moisture resides across the high
terrain, with surface dew point temperatures in the upper 40s to
near 50 F. Strong heating this morning has allowed temperatures to
warm into the mid to upper 60s F, and strong mid-level lapse rates
(7-8 C/km) are fostering MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. Effective shear is
forecast remain somewhat marginal across this region through the
afternoon (25-30 kt), residing along the northern fringe of stronger
flow farther to the south. These conditions should limit the overall
severity of the convective activity, however, the strongest storms
will be capable of hail and wind gusts exceeding severe thresholds, particularly as this activity spreads east and moves off the high
terrain.

..Karstens/Hart.. 05/26/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8v4XDIzhxbiygqchI17DzJr9kX5edETpE11BTDHHE6expRGmg0l83H9WyDrXcN7nuahsyCHGZ= GTQpvTP53B2WcxXuzA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON 35660495 35230589 35350627 35820625 36550563 36940549
37610509 37780466 37610421 36720425 36160450 35660495=20


=3D =3D =3D
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