ACUS11 KWNS 250034
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250034=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-250130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0859
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023

Areas affected...eastern New Mexico and portions of northwest Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 235...

Valid 250034Z - 250130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 235
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat continues within WW235. There is a
conditional risk across the far southern portion of the watch for
large hail, gusty winds, and a tornado or two into the evening.

DISCUSSION...A storm ongoing near Tucumcari, NM has produced 2 inch
hail along with significant wind gusts as high as 75 mph in the last
hour. Additional thunderstorm development is occurring along
developing outflow emanating from this storm across south-central
Quay and Curry Counties. Expect additional development further south
in the next couple of hours with potential for gusty winds and large
hail.

Further south in WW235, uncertainty grows with a conditional threat
through the evening. Recently, an area of more pronounced cumulus
development was ongoing across Chaves County. Surface observations
indicate that mixing has been occurring with the surface dew point
dropping into the upper 40s from the early afternoon mid 50s.
Visible satellite has shown many failed attempts at initiation
within this area and further west along the dryline. One weak cell
was able to initiate but has struggled to intensify. Day Cloud Phase Distinction satellite imagery continues to show deepening cu with
evidence of glaciation. As the low level jet intensifies this
evening, moisture should increase along with low-level flow. If a
cell can successfully initiate in this regime and track eastward, a
conditional threat of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado will
be possible through the evening.

..Thornton/Edwards.. 05/25/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9Fat_YHTdyZsjq_A8qIuoPVjIIRe_A5irZqSU4CPh-YNDzDD7fMp1P2fANl0blunodx6nYxu2= xnIj6nVt133B8z8FxU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON 34480399 34800375 35000351 35010315 34990259 34910238
34700217 34260205 33890198 33430203 33200213 33050245
32800308 32840347 32990381 34480399=20


=3D =3D =3D
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