• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0857

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed May 24 22:05:33 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 242205
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 242204=20
    MTZ000-WYZ000-250000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0857
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0504 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023

    Areas affected...Eastern Montana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 242204Z - 250000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A few strong to severe thunderstorms will occur this
    evening over parts of eastern Montana. Large hail and gusty winds
    are possible. A watch is unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a cold front extending
    from eastern Phillips County MT southwestward to west of Billings.=20
    Visible satellite imagery shows a cu field that clearly shows the
    front position. Scattered thunderstorms have begun to form along
    and ahead of front, in a moderately moist and unstable air mass
    (dewpoints in the upper 50s and MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg). Steep
    mid-level lapse rates will promote robust updrafts, but rather weak
    southerly flow through the low/mid troposphere will limit overall
    convective organization (effective shear < 25 knots). A few
    organized multicell storms capable of hail and gusty winds are
    expected for the next few hours, but current indications are that
    the majority of storms will remain below severe limits. Therefore
    not currently planning on watch issuance.

    ..Hart/Edwards.. 05/24/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5_ZfzarXvwX77vbgRxjxALFv4fPnriNc9qDpLVgBEYq5Mf4TXDgk4obgg4JHz0S23Ner56jaq= NTJbVto9Zz6FykygQg$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...

    LAT...LON 48960520 46860525 44870616 44470710 45050812 45870897
    46850782 47780759 49030774 48960520=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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