• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0846

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 23 19:38:19 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 231938
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 231937=20
    FLZ000-ALZ000-232100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0846
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0237 PM CDT Tue May 23 2023

    Areas affected...portions of the Florida Panhandle.

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 231937Z - 232100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms may pose a risk for isolated
    damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...As of 1930 UTC, regional radar analysis depicted
    scattered thunderstorms ongoing across the FL Panhandle ahead of a
    weak MCV over southern AL. Despite poor mid-level lapse rates, the
    seasonably warm and moist Gulf Coast air mass was supporting
    moderate buoyancy sufficient for robust updrafts. Slight enhancement
    of mid-level flow from the MCV was noted on area VADs with 20-25 kt
    of effective shear. While not overly strong, the enhanced shear in
    combination with multiple sea breeze boundaries may support a few
    organized multi-cells and transient supercell structures across the
    FL Panhandle this afternoon. Given the moderate buoyancy, marginally
    severe hail will be possible with the strongest cores. Damaging
    gusts from sporadic downbursts with the more persistent clusters may
    also be possible. The limited potential for storm organization and
    uncertainty on the longevity of any severe threat suggests a weather
    watch is unlikely this afternoon.

    ..Lyons/Grams.. 05/23/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8RJC2Upes9V6dNxpIsdt_8_zXOvpUAeLhYKSp1Mm7HpgkB5_rmFE3HtnlTlg2a5Ic5EJYK386= X8XqERQdaQzr1lPyi8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

    LAT...LON 30278704 30668730 30858720 30908716 31018633 30598440
    30408378 30308371 30068357 29958367 29758461 29638499
    29598529 29958567 30118606 30278704=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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