ACUS11 KWNS 221640
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221639=20
FLZ000-221915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0836
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 AM CDT Mon May 22 2023

Areas affected...Parts of the FL Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 221639Z - 221915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An increase in storm coverage and intensity is expected
this afternoon, with isolated damaging wind gusts possible with the
strongest storms.

DISCUSSION...Convection is beginning to increase early this
afternoon in association with the east coast and west coast sea
breezes across the FL Peninsula. Flow below 500 mb is expected to
remain quite weak across the region, but modestly enhanced
upper-level flow and MLCAPE increasing above 1500 J/kg may support
some marginally organized convection later this afternoon as storms
mature. Outflow-dominant multicells will likely be the most likely
convective mode this afternoon, though a supercell or two cannot be
ruled out in the vicinity of sea-breeze and outflow mergers, where
effective shear may be locally enhanced.=20

Locally strong/damaging gusts are expected to be the primary hazard,
though isolated hail cannot be ruled out with any sustained stronger
cells. The coverage and magnitude of the severe threat are expected
to remain too limited for watch issuance.

..Dean/Grams.. 05/22/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6RG3mGdYhNU7WCkqqZgbfG1HHV_2FNG_fm5SVj8TuGtTvaTcaAr1Cie3svK9oYRWGut310NCG= 1R6ejGmsMMgpsRMpJE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON 25918049 26068126 27948236 29248241 29368141 28528096
27648070 26568045 25918049=20


=3D =3D =3D
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