ACUS11 KWNS 211829
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211829=20
FLZ000-GAZ000-212030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0831
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0129 PM CDT Sun May 21 2023

Areas affected...portions of southeastern georgia into the northern
Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 211829Z - 212030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing along a weak front and the sea
breeze may pose a risk for isolated damaging gusts and small hail
this afternoon. A weather watch is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...As of 1820 UTC, regional radar and satellite analysis
showed scattered thunderstorms developing along a weak frontal zone
across portions of southern GA and northern FL. Further convective
development appears likely this afternoon along the front and sea
breeze boundaries as surface temperatures continue to warm into the
upper 80s F. While mid-level lapse rates are poor (5-6 C/km) The
warm and moist air mass with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F
will support moderate buoyancy with 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE
available. Aided by subtle enhancement of the mid-level flow from a
passing shortwave over the Carolinas, a few stronger updrafts may
gradually evolve into multi-cell clusters or transient supercell
structures this afternoon. The high PWAT air mass will favor heavily water-loaded downdrafts capable of isolated damaging wind gusts,
especially with any more persistent/forward-propagating clusters.
Hi-res guidance and observational trends suggest the greatest
corridor of threat will likely evolve along the intersection of the
cold front and sea breeze front across portions of far southeastern
GA and the northern FL Peninsula this afternoon. While a few
damaging gusts are possible, the sporadic nature of storm
organization owing to the lack of more robust upper-level support
suggests a weather watch is unlikely.

..Lyons/Grams.. 05/21/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6XBMbdoABsGrLXZU2O7f6y2llu0NECXUtjLzR09lNMvMiSQFrbfTYOy95DRu74xjolFr1sU_b= cCSL_p7Oco3mHuzX44$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON 29678127 29338135 29158147 28908155 28788172 28828210
28978239 29308241 31308272 31838249 31958168 30928145
30138137 29678127=20


=3D =3D =3D
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